Conditioning and preconditioning of the variational data assimilation problem

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) centres use numerical models of the atmospheric flow to forecast future weather states from an estimate of the current state. Variational data assimilation (VAR) is used commonly to determine an optimal state estimate that miminizes the errors between observations of the dynamical system and model predictions of the flow. The rate of convergence of the VAR scheme and the sensitivity of the solution to errors in the data are dependent on the condition number of the Hessian of the variational least-squares objective function. The traditional formulation of VAR is ill-conditioned and hence leads to slow convergence and an inaccurate solution. In practice, operational NWP centres precondition the system via a control variable transform to reduce the condition number of the Hessian. In this paper we investigate the conditioning of VAR for a single, periodic, spatially-distributed state variable. We present theoretical bounds on the condition number of the original and preconditioned Hessians and hence demonstrate the improvement produced by the preconditioning. We also investigate theoretically the effect of observation position and error variance on the preconditioned system and show that the problem becomes more ill-conditioned with increasingly dense and accurate observations. Finally, we confirm the theoretical results in an operational setting by giving experimental results from the Met Office variational system.

Sub-agent elements for control methods in multi-agent energy management system

Increased penetration of generation and decentralised control are considered to be feasible and effective solution for reducing cost and emissions and hence efficiency associated with power generation and distribution. Distributed generation in combination with the multi-agent technology are perfect candidates for this solution. Pro-active and autonomous nature of multi-agent systems can provide an effective platform for decentralised control whilst improving reliability and flexibility of the grid.

Maximising concurrency and scalability in a consistent, causal, distributed virtual reality system, whilst minimising the effect of network delays

The development of large scale virtual reality and simulation systems have been mostly driven by the DIS and HLA standards community. A number of issues are coming to light about the applicability of these standards, in their present state, to the support of general multi-user VR systems. This paper pinpoints four issues that must be readdressed before large scale virtual reality systems become accessible to a larger commercial and public domain: a reduction in the effects of network delays; scalable causal event delivery; update control; and scalable reliable communication. Each of these issues is tackled through a common theme of combining wall clock and causal time-related entity behaviour, knowledge of network delays and prediction of entity behaviour, that together overcome many of the effects of network delay.

Maximising concurrency and scalability in a consistent, causal, distributed virtual reality system, whilst minimising the effect of network delays

The development of large scale virtual reality and simulation systems have been mostly driven by the DIS and HLA standards community. A number of issues are coming to light about the applicability of these standards, in their present state, to the support of general multi-user VR systems. This paper pinpoints four issues that must be readdressed before large scale virtual reality systems become accessible to a larger commercial and public domain: a reduction in the effects of network delays; scalable causal event delivery; update control; and scalable reliable communication. Each of these issues is tackled through a common theme of combining wall clock and causal time-related entity behaviour, knowledge of network delays and prediction of entity behaviour, that together overcome many of the effects of network delays.

The state estimation of flow demands in gas networks from sparse pressure telemetry

This paper presents novel observer-based techniques for the estimation of flow demands in gas networks, from sparse pressure telemetry. A completely observable model is explored, constructed by incorporating difference equations that assume the flow demands are steady. Since the flow demands usually vary slowly with time, this is a reasonable approximation. Two techniques for constructing robust observers are employed: robust eigenstructure assignment and singular value assignment. These techniques help to reduce the effects of the system approximation. Modelling error may be further reduced by making use of known profiles for the flow demands. The theory is extended to deal successfully with the problem of measurement bias. The pressure measurements available are subject to constant biases which degrade the flow demand estimates, and such biases need to be estimated. This is achieved by constructing a further model variation that incorporates the biases into an augmented state vector, but now includes information about the flow demand profiles in a new form.

Cognitive process modelling of controllers in en route air traffic control

In recent years, various efforts have been made in air traffic control (ATC) to maintain traffic safety and efficiency in the face of increasing air traffic demands. ATC is a complex process that depends to a large degree on human capabilities, and so understanding how controllers carry out their tasks is an important issue in the design and development of ATC systems. In particular, the human factor is considered to be a serious problem in ATC safety and has been identified as a causal factor in both major and minor incidents. There is, therefore, a need to analyse the mechanisms by which errors occur due to complex factors and to develop systems that can deal with these errors. From the cognitive process perspective, it is essential that system developers have an understanding of the more complex working processes that involve the cooperative work of multiple controllers. Distributed cognition is a methodological framework for analysing cognitive processes that span multiple actors mediated by technology. In this research, we attempt to analyse and model interactions that take place in en route ATC systems based on distributed cognition. We examine the functional problems in an ATC system from a human factors perspective, and conclude by identifying certain measures by which to address these problems. This research focuses on the analysis of air traffic controllers' tasks for en route ATC and modelling controllers' cognitive processes.

A flow system for the on-line quantitative measurement of the retention of dosage forms on biological surfaces using spectroscopy and image analysis

Measuring the retention, or residence time, of dosage forms to biological tissue is commonly a qualitative measurement, where no real values to describe the retention can be recorded. The result of this is an assessment that is dependent upon a user's interpretation of visual observation. This research paper outlines the development of a methodology to quantitatively measure, both by image analysis and by spectrophotometric techniques, the retention of material to biological tissues, using the retention of polymer solutions to ocular tissue as an example. Both methods have been shown to be repeatable, with the spectrophotometric measurement generating data reliably and quickly for further analysis.

2D hexagonal mesoporous platinum films exhibiting biaxial, in-plane pore alignment

The synthesis of 2D hexagonal mesoporous platinum films with biaxial, in-plane pore alignment is demonstrated by electrodeposition through an aligned lyotropic liquid crystal templating phase. Shear force is used to align a hexagonal lyotropic liquid crystalline templating phase of an inexpensive and a commercially available surfactant, C16EO10, at the surface of an electrode. Electrodeposition and subsequent characterisation of the films produced shows that the orientation and alignment of the phase is transferred to the deposited material. Transmission electron microscopy confirms the expected nanostructure of the films, whilst transmission and grazing incidence small angle X-ray scattering analysis confirms biaxial, in plane alignment of the pore structure. In addition further electrochemical studies in dilute sulfuric acid and methanol show that the pores are accessible to electrolyte solution as indicated by a large current flow; the modified electrode therefore has a high surface area, that catalyses methanol oxidation, and the pores have a very large aspect ratio (of theoretical maximum 2 × 105). Films with such aligned mesoporosity will advance the field of nanotechnology where the control of pore structure is paramount. The method reported is sufficiently generic to be used to control the structure and order of many materials, thus increasing the potential for the development of a wide range of novel electronic and optical devices.

The Aqua-Planet Experiment (APE): CONTROL SST Simulation

Climate simulations by 16 atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) are compared on an aqua-planet, a water-covered Earth with prescribed sea surface temperature varying only in latitude. The idealised configuration is designed to expose differences in the circulation simulated by different models. Basic features of the aqua-planet climate are characterised by comparison with Earth. The models display a wide range of behaviour. The balanced component of the tropospheric mean flow, and mid-latitude eddy covariances subject to budget constraints, vary relatively little among the models. In contrast, differences in damping in the dynamical core strongly influence transient eddy amplitudes. Historical uncertainty in modelled lower stratospheric temperatures persists in APE. Aspects of the circulation generated more directly by interactions between the resolved fluid dynamics and parameterized moist processes vary greatly. The tropical Hadley circulation forms either a single or double inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) at the equator, with large variations in mean precipitation. The equatorial wave spectrum shows a wide range of precipitation intensity and propagation characteristics. Kelvin mode-like eastward propagation with remarkably constant phase speed dominates in most models. Westward propagation, less dispersive than the equatorial Rossby modes, dominates in a few models or occurs within an eastward propagating envelope in others. The mean structure of the ITCZ is related to precipitation variability, consistent with previous studies. The aqua-planet global energy balance is unknown but the models produce a surprisingly large range of top of atmosphere global net flux, dominated by differences in shortwave reflection by clouds. A number of newly developed models, not optimised for Earth climate, contribute to this. Possible reasons for differences in the optimised models are discussed. The aqua-planet configuration is intended as one component of an experimental hierarchy used to evaluate AGCMs. This comparison does suggest that the range of model behaviour could be better understood and reduced in conjunction with Earth climate simulations. Controlled experimentation is required to explore individual model behaviour and investigate convergence of the aqua-planet climate with increasing resolution.

P-found: grid-enabling distributed repositories of protein folding and unfolding simulations for data mining

The P-found protein folding and unfolding simulation repository is designed to allow scientists to perform data mining and other analyses across large, distributed simulation data sets. There are two storage components in P-found: a primary repository of simulation data that is used to populate the second component, and a data warehouse that contains important molecular properties. These properties may be used for data mining studies. Here we demonstrate how grid technologies can support multiple, distributed P-found installations. In particular, we look at two aspects: firstly, how grid data management technologies can be used to access the distributed data warehouses; and secondly, how the grid can be used to transfer analysis programs to the primary repositories — this is an important and challenging aspect of P-found, due to the large data volumes involved and the desire of scientists to maintain control of their own data. The grid technologies we are developing with the P-found system will allow new large data sets of protein folding simulations to be accessed and analysed in novel ways, with significant potential for enabling scientific discovery.

Use of high-resolution NWP rainfall and river flow forecasts for advance warning of the Carlisle flood, north-west England

On the 8 January 2005 the city of Carlisle in north-west England was severely flooded following 2 days of almost continuous rain over the nearby hills. Orographic enhancement of the rain through the seeder–feeder mechanism led to the very high rainfall totals. This paper shows the impact of running the Met Office Unified Model (UM) with a grid spacing of 4 and 1 km compared to the 12 km available at the time of the event. These forecasts, and forecasts from the Nimrod nowcasting system, were fed into the Probability Distributed Model (PDM) to predict river flow at the outlets of two catchments important for flood warning. The results show the benefit of increased resolution in the UM, the benefit of coupling the high-resolution rainfall forecasts to the PDM and the improvement in timeliness of flood warning that might have been possible. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Power allocation strategies for distributed space-time codes in two-way relay networks

We study a two-way relay network (TWRN), where distributed space-time codes are constructed across multiple relay terminals in an amplify-and-forward mode. Each relay transmits a scaled linear combination of its received symbols and their conjugates,with the scaling factor chosen based on automatic gain control. We consider equal power allocation (EPA) across the relays, as well as the optimal power allocation (OPA) strategy given access to instantaneous channel state information (CSI). For EPA, we derive an upper bound on the pairwise-error-probability (PEP), from which we prove that full diversity is achieved in TWRNs. This result is in contrast to one-way relay networks, in which case a maximum diversity order of only unity can be obtained. When instantaneous CSI is available at the relays, we show that the OPA which minimizes the conditional PEP of the worse link can be cast as a generalized linear fractional program, which can be solved efficiently using the Dinkelback-type procedure.We also prove that, if the sum-power of the relay terminals is constrained, then the OPA will activate at most two relays.