Diffusion of photovoltaic in Germany: roles of policy, system suppliers and adopters

In some countries photovoltaic (PV) technology is at a stage of development at which it can compete with conventional electricity sources. A case in point is Germany where PV market has reached a mature stage. As a manifest of this, the German government has recently reduced the feed-in-tariff, which had been the strongest driver of PV diffusion. This development raises a fundamental question: Why would potential adopters be motivated to adopt PV when feed-in tariff diminishes? The point of departure for the literature on diffusion of PV has been on the effect of subsidies but little attention has paid to adopter motives when the policy support is scaled down. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of the adopter motives for photovoltaic applications. Anchored in an extensive exploratory case study we provide an encompassing explanation of roles of policy, adopters and system suppliers on diffusion of PV.

A multi-level analysis of innovation diffusion: The case of solar photovoltaic systems in Germany and the disillusion of grid parity

¿Suministrarán las fuentes de energía renovables toda la energía que el mundo necesita algún día? Algunos argumentan que sí, mientras que otros dicen que no. Sin embargo, en algunas regiones del mundo, la producción de electricidad a través de fuentes de energía renovables ya está en una etapa prometedora de desarrollo en la que su costo de generación de electricidad compite con fuentes de electricidad convencionales, como por ejemplo la paridad de red. Este logro ha sido respaldado por el aumento de la eficiencia de la tecnología, la reducción de los costos de producción y, sobre todo, los años de intervenciones políticas de apoyo financiero. La difusión de los sistemas solares fotovoltaicos (PV) en Alemania es un ejemplo relevante. Alemania no sólo es el país líder en términos de capacidad instalada de sistemas fotovoltaicos (PV) en todo el mundo, sino también uno de los países pioneros donde la paridad de red se ha logrado recientemente. No obstante, podría haber una nube en el horizonte. La tasa de difusión ha comenzado a declinar en muchas regiones. Además, las empresas solares locales – que se sabe son importantes impulsores de la difusión – han comenzado a enfrentar dificultades para manejar sus negocios. Estos acontecimientos plantean algunas preguntas importantes: ¿Es ésta una disminución temporal en la difusión? ¿Los adoptantes continuarán instalando sistemas fotovoltaicos? ¿Qué pasa con los modelos de negocio de las empresas solares locales? Con base en el caso de los sistemas fotovoltaicos en Alemania a través de un análisis multinivel y dos revisiones literarias complementarias, esta tesis doctoral extiende el debate proporcionando riqueza múltiple de datos empíricos en un conocimiento de contexto limitado. El primer análisis se basa en la perspectiva del adoptante, que explora el nivel "micro" y el proceso social que subyace a la adopción de los sistemas fotovoltaicos. El segundo análisis es una perspectiva a nivel de empresa, que explora los modelos de negocio de las empresas y sus roles impulsores en la difusión de los sistemas fotovoltaicos. El tercero análisis es una perspectiva regional, la cual explora el nivel "meso", el proceso social que subyace a la adopción de sistemas fotovoltaicos y sus técnicas de modelado. Los resultados incluyen implicaciones tanto para académicos como políticos, no sólo sobre las innovaciones en energía renovable relativas a la paridad de red, sino también, de manera inductiva, sobre las innovaciones ambientales impulsadas por las políticas que logren la competitividad de costes. ABSTRACT Will renewable energy sources supply all of the world energy needs one day? Some argue yes, while others say no. However, in some regions of the world, the electricity production through renewable energy sources is already at a promising stage of development at which their electricity generation costs compete with conventional electricity sources’, i.e., grid parity. This achievement has been underpinned by the increase of technology efficiency, reduction of production costs and, above all, years of policy interventions of providing financial support. The diffusion of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in Germany is an important frontrunner case in point. Germany is not only the top country in terms of installed PV systems’ capacity worldwide but also one of the pioneer countries where the grid parity has recently been achieved. However, there might be a cloud on the horizon. The diffusion rate has started to decline in many regions. In addition, local solar firms – which are known to be important drivers of diffusion – have started to face difficulties to run their businesses. These developments raise some important questions: Is this a temporary decline on diffusion? Will adopters continue to install PV systems? What about the business models of the local solar firms? Based on the case of PV systems in Germany through a multi-level analysis and two complementary literature reviews, this PhD Dissertation extends the debate by providing multiple wealth of empirical details in a context-limited knowledge. The first analysis is based on the adopter perspective, which explores the “micro” level and the social process underlying the adoption of PV systems. The second one is a firm-level perspective, which explores the business models of firms and their driving roles in diffusion of PV systems. The third one is a regional perspective, which explores the “meso” level, i.e., the social process underlying the adoption of PV systems and its modeling techniques. The results include implications for both scholars and policymakers, not only about renewable energy innovations at grid parity, but also in an inductive manner, about policy-driven environmental innovations that achieve the cost competiveness.

Optimizing phosphorus diffusion for photovoltaic applications: peak doping, inactive phosphorus,gettering, and contact formation

The phosphosilicate glass (PSG), fabricated by tube furnace diffusion using a POCl3 source, is widely used as a dopant source in the manufacturing of crystalline silicon solar cells. Although it has been a widely addressed research topic for a long time, there is still lack of a comprehensive understanding of aspects such as the growth, the chemical composition, possible phosphorus depletion, the resulting in-diffused phosphorus profiles, the gettering behavior in silicon, and finally the metal-contact formation. This paper addresses these different aspects simultaneously to further optimize process conditions for photovoltaic applications. To do so, a wide range of experimental data is used and combined with device and process simulations, leading to a more comprehensive interpretation. The results show that slight changes in the PSG process conditions can produce high-quality emitters. It is predicted that PSG processes at 860 °C for 60 min in combination with an etch-back and laser doping from PSG layer results in high-quality emitters with a peak dopant density Npeak = 8.0 × 1018 cm−3 and a junction depth dj = 0.4 μm, resulting in a sheet resistivityρsh = 380 Ω/sq and a saturation current-density J0 below 10 fA/cm2. With these properties, the POCl3 process can compete with ion implantation or doped oxide approaches.

Effective intercellular communication distances are determined by the relative time constants for cyto/chemokine secretion and diffusion

A cell’s ability to effectively communicate with a neighboring cell is essential for tissue function and ultimately for the organism to which it belongs. One important mode of intercellular communication is the release of soluble cyto- and chemokines. Once secreted, these signaling molecules diffuse through the surrounding medium and eventually bind to neighboring cell’s receptors whereby the signal is received. This mode of communication is governed both by physicochemical transport processes and cellular secretion rates, which in turn are determined by genetic and biochemical processes. The characteristics of transport processes have been known for some time, and information on the genetic and biochemical determinants of cellular function is rapidly growing. Simultaneous quantitative analysis of the two is required to systematically evaluate the nature and limitations of intercellular signaling. The present study uses a solitary cell model to estimate effective communication distances over which a single cell can meaningfully propagate a soluble signal. The analysis reveals that: (i) this process is governed by a single, key, dimensionless group that is a ratio of biological parameters and physicochemical determinants; (ii) this ratio has a maximal value; (iii) for realistic values of the parameters contained in this dimensionless group, it is estimated that the domain that a single cell can effectively communicate in is ≈250 μm in size; and (iv) the communication within this domain takes place in 10–30 minutes. These results have fundamental implications for interpretation of organ physiology and for engineering tissue function ex vivo.

“Coarse” stability and bifurcation analysis using time-steppers: A reaction-diffusion example

Evolutionary, pattern forming partial differential equations (PDEs) are often derived as limiting descriptions of microscopic, kinetic theory-based models of molecular processes (e.g., reaction and diffusion). The PDE dynamic behavior can be probed through direct simulation (time integration) or, more systematically, through stability/bifurcation calculations; time-stepper-based approaches, like the Recursive Projection Method [Shroff, G. M. & Keller, H. B. (1993) SIAM J. Numer. Anal. 30, 1099–1120] provide an attractive framework for the latter. We demonstrate an adaptation of this approach that allows for a direct, effective (“coarse”) bifurcation analysis of microscopic, kinetic-based models; this is illustrated through a comparative study of the FitzHugh-Nagumo PDE and of a corresponding Lattice–Boltzmann model.

Radial and longitudinal diffusion of myoglobin in single living heart and skeletal muscle cells

We have used a fluorescence recovery after photobleaching (FRAP) technique to measure radial diffusion of myoglobin and other proteins in single skeletal and cardiac muscle cells. We compare the radial diffusivities, Dr (i.e., diffusion perpendicular to the long fiber axis), with longitudinal ones, Dl (i.e., parallel to the long fiber axis), both measured by the same technique, for myoglobin (17 kDa), lactalbumin (14 kDa), and ovalbumin (45 kDa). At 22°C, Dl for myoglobin is 1.2 × 10−7 cm2/s in soleus fibers and 1.1 × 10−7 cm2/s in cardiomyocytes. Dl for lactalbumin is similar in both cell types. Dr for myoglobin is 1.2 × 10−7 cm2/s in soleus fibers and 1.1 × 10−7 cm2/s in cardiomyocytes and, again, similar for lactalbumin. Dl and Dr for ovalbumin are 0.5 × 10−7 cm2/s. In the case of myoglobin, both Dl and Dr at 37°C are about 80% higher than at 22°C. We conclude that intracellular diffusivity of myoglobin and other proteins (i) is very low in striated muscle cells, ≈1/10 of the value in dilute protein solution, (ii) is not markedly different in longitudinal and radial direction, and (iii) is identical in heart and skeletal muscle. A Krogh cylinder model calculation holding for steady-state tissue oxygenation predicts that, based on these myoglobin diffusivities, myoglobin-facilitated oxygen diffusion contributes 4% to the overall intracellular oxygen transport of maximally exercising skeletal muscle and less than 2% to that of heart under conditions of high work load.

Intracellular pH in adipocytes: effects of free fatty acid diffusion across the plasma membrane, lipolytic agonists, and insulin.

The main function of white adipose tissue is to store nutrient energy in the form of triglycerides. The mechanism by which free fatty acids (FFA) move into and out of the adipocyte has not been resolved. We show here that changes in intracellular pH (pH1) in adipocytes correlate with the movement of FFA across cellular membranes as predicted by the Kamp and Hamilton model of passive diffusion of FFA. Exposure of fat cells to lipolytic agents or external FFA results is a rapid intracellular acidification that is reversed by metabolism of the FFA or its removal by albumin. In contrast, insulin causes an alkalinization of the cell, consistent with its main function to promote esterification. Inhibition of Na+/H+ exchange in adipocytes does not prevent the changes in pHi caused by FFA, lipolytic agents, or insulin. A fatty acid dimer, which diffuses into the cell but is not metabolized, causes an irreversible acidification. Taken together, the data suggest that changes in pHi occur in adipocytes in response to the passive diffusion of un-ionized FFA (flip-flop) into and out of the cell and in response to their metabolism and production within the cell. These changes in pHi may, in turn, modulate hormonal signaling and metabolism with significant impact on cell function.

Procedure for calculating the chloride diffusion coefficient and surface concentration from a profile having a maximum beyond the concrete surface

Chlorides induce local corrosion in the steel reinforcements when reaching the bar surface. The measurement of the rate of ingress of these ions, is made by mathematically fitting the so called “error function equation” into the chloride concentration profile, obtaining so the diffusion coefficient and the chloride concentration at the concrete surface. However, the chloride profiles do not always follow Fick’s law by having the maximum concentration at the concrete surface, but often the profile shows a maximum concentration more in the interior, which indicates a different composition and performance of the most external concrete layer with respect to the internal zones. The paper presents a procedure prepared during the time of the RILEM TC 178-TMC: “Testing and modeling chloride penetration in concrete”, which suggests neglecting the external layer where the chloride concentration increases and using the maximum as an “apparent” surface concentration, called C max and to fit the error function equation into the decreasing concentration profile towards the interior. The prediction of evolution should be made also from the maximum.

Technology diffusion, services, and endogenous growth in Europe. Is the Lisbon Strategy still alive? Bruges European Economic Research (BEER) Papers 2/May 2005

We explore the role of business services in knowledge accumulation and growth and the determinants of knowledge diffusion including the role of distance. A continuous time model is estimated on several European countries, Japan, and the US. Policy simulations illustrate the benefits for EU growth of the deepening of the single market, the reduction of regulatory barriers, and the accumulation of technology and human capital. Our results support the basic insights of the Lisbon Agenda. Economic growth in Europe is enhanced to the extent that: trade in services increases, technology accumulation and diffusion increase, regulation becomes both less intensive and more uniform across countries, and human capital accumulation increases in all countries.