Análise da demanda de fertilizantes no Brasil: um estudo econométrico através da modelagem arima

A simulação de tendências futuras no setor de fertilizantes encaminha o produtor rural a prevenir-se de bruscas variações de preços, possibilitando maior poder de concorrência no cenário internacional. Para tanto, propõe-se a utilização da metodologia ARIMA para se estimar a demanda do consumo de fertilizantes no Brasil. Primeiramente revisitando a literatura especializada, obtendo informações históricas relevantes, além de avaliar as vicissitudes do cenário atual. A segunda parte introduz os conceitos da metodologia ARIMA , e encerrando com a apresentação dos dados e análises estatísticas da previsão 2012 à 2016

Reconfiguração de sistemas de distribuição operando em vários níveis de demanda através de uma meta-heurística de busca em vizinhança variável

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Triagem interventiva: a caracterização de uma demanda

This paper analyzes the process of sorting through the intervening demand survey that reaches the Center for Research and Applied Psychology (CPPA) “Dr. Betti Katzenstein” UNESP Assis. The objective was to better understand the reality of conflicts that people face and, therefore, to characterize the patients who seek help in CPPA. With greater understanding of demand, it is possible to trace more consistent referrals and tailor the service to the school clinic profile of clients that demand. Recalling that the actual attendance of screening is already a form of interventional care, because it provides patient care from first contact. This was a documentary research, which had collected their data sheets of the CPPA trials conducted in 2011. 394 screenings were performed. We present the distribution of the demand for sex, age and complaint that motivated the search for care. It can be concluded that the characterization allows a customer routing more efficient services offered at the institution, as it contributes to a better understanding delineated in each case and a reduced number of dropouts in the screening process.

Influência do gênero na demanda visual por mapas em escalas diferentes em sistema de navegação e guia de rota

This work investigates the gender effect on visual demand of drivers for dynamic maps at different cartographic scales presented In-Vehicle Route Guidance and Navigation System (RGNS). A group of 52 subjects (26 males and 26 females) took part in an experiment performed in a low-cost driving simulator. the driver's task consisted of navigating in an unknown route using a RGNS prototype which presents maps at two different cartographic scales. This paper replicates the known phenomenon of significant relationships between gender and performance at visual-spatial tasks issue. Our results show that drivers of different genders present distinct levels of visual demand both due to the cartographic scales and maneuver complexity variation. These discussed results are based upon individual differences in terms of spatial ability and spatial anxiety.

Demanda energética na sessão de exercício resistido com características de hipertrofia e resistência muscular localizada

Pós-graduação em Ciências da Motricidade - IBRC

Organização da demanda de um Centro de Especialidades Odontológicas

Introduction: Secondary care in oral health in Brazil is still a little researched topic. Objective: The aim of this study was to analyze the resolution of dental services in SUS based on the referral to secondary attention and backreferral to primary attention. Methodology: It’s a descriptive, quantitative study that used secondary data collected from dental records of patients seen at Centre of Dental Specialties (Ceo) in a city of São Paulo State. Result: It was analyzed 1030 dental records. Just 1236 proceedings received referral to Ceo and among then, 86.4% showed the first attendance on Basic Health Unity (UBS) through spontaneous demand and 50.4% (n=623) received referral to endodontic treatment. There was evasion of 2.27% of studied population (n=28) on the first specialized consultation. Among 1208 proceedings that started the treatment in Ceo, 62.6% (n=757) were finalized and received back-referral to primary attention, that finalized 61.1% (n=463) of proceedings. To conclude the treatment, considering the time spent in Ceo and primary attention, there was variation according to specialty: periodontics – 62 days (sd ±68) and endodontics – 71 days (sd ±51.8), requiring 3 consultations in average, regardless specialty. Conclusion: The Centre of Dental Specialties gave referral and attention to the majority of demand, regardless specialty. However, there are many cases of evasion during dental treatment, alerting managers to develop methods to entice these patients, reducing service expenses and raising solvability of dental procedures previously initiated.

Práticas parentais e repertório infantil: caracterização da demanda por atendimento e predição de abandono

The objective of this paper is: (a) to characterize behaviors of the 47 primary caregivers and their children who sought for psychological services, (b) to compare groups: abandonment x participants; boy x girl. The participants answered the interview inventory (RE-HSE-P), inventory (IHS-Del Prette) and scales (Rathus Assertiveness Scale and CBCL). For the results, 60% of the children presented behavior problems at clinical level. There is correlation between negative parenting practices and behavior problems and social skills among caregivers (HSE-P) and children. People who drop out psychological services, present lower frequence and quality of HSE-P and more behavior problems. There are not differences in comparisons between boys and girls. The results highlight the importance of evaluating clinical context, the contingent behaviors of parents and children employing different instruments in order to describe the relationship between behavior problem and potentialities of both interlocutors socially interacting.

Recepção por demanda de ficção seriada televisiva

O presente trabalho investiga a adequação para a recepção por demanda da estrutura da ficção seriada televisiva, matriz concebida para a veiculação em fluxo dentro da lógica da grade de programação. Centrando no gancho e repetição narrativa, foram realizados estudos de cena em Mckee (2006) e aplicadas as funções das personagens de Propp (1986) no corpus: A Grande Família, Duas Caras e Filhos do Carnaval. Em seguida, simulou-se a sua recepção por demanda e fluxo.

Previsão de demanda para peças de reposição de alto giro: aplicação de método descritivo simples comparado com o modelo suavização exponencial

O estudo de métodos de previsão de demandas é um conceito bastante popular, mas nem sempre seus resultados são facilmente aplicáveis nas organizações por várias limitações. O propósito deste artigo é apresentar um método simples e descritivo para a previsão de demanda para peças de reposição de alto giro e comparar os resultados com o modelo de suavização exponencial. Foi utilizado para isto, dados reais de consumo de uma empresa de geração de energia em dois anos com a mesma condição de contorno, e estabeleceu-se o ano de 2012 com a série de aplicação dos métodos e a série de 2013 com a série de validação dos resultados e em todas as amostras tomadas observou-se um menor erro quadrático RMSE, a favor do método descritivo simplificado. Todas as quatro séries analisadas se caracterizam pela alta dispersão dos dados, e não possuem tendências e sazonalidades.

A iteratividade: do melodrama à narrativa audiovisual sob demanda

The repetition should be understood as the property of mass cultural products, originated from the need to minimize the dispersion of the audience in their enjoyment. Based on this assumption, this paper measures the rate of iteration manifested in the scripts of the following serial fictions: Duas Caras, A Grande Família and House of Cards. Established itself as a method of scene analysis proposed by McKee (2008), questioned whether the lack of classical education of the public and rescued the forms assumed by repeating the melodrama, romance-serial and dramaturgy: asides, monologues, confidences and planar scenes. The proposal was applied in two scripts for each of the aforementioned productions. Considering the data collected, it appears that there was reduction in repeat products offered on demand thanks to the possibility of handling the flow and the attention given receptor.

Miedo e inseguridad de la gestante durante el trabajo de parto como motivos para la demanda de internación precoz

Objective. To identify reasons why women look for early health care attention at the end of pregnancy. Methodology. Qualitative study based in socio-existential phenomenology proposed by Alfred Schütz. Nine pregnant women who consulted to the maternity service without being in real labor were interviewed. Results. The following analysis categories emerged: Having different symptoms or signals from the ones they had felt or been informed about, not being able to identify real labor, fear to fetal complications for being close to the probable labor date, feeling calmer when being seen by professionals of the institution, lack of problem solving by other services of the health institution, fearing out of hospital delivery, imitating real labor, looking for tranquility in the idealization of labor and modifying behaviors to guarantee attention. Conclusion. Women are insecure and fear because of a fragmented health care, where they do not perceive themselves linked to the prenatal control program anymore, and at the same time they don’t find the health care assistance they want.

Análise parâmetros elétricos consumo, fator de carga e demanda de empresas de refino de óleo vegetal

Empresas muitas vezes tem seu consumo de energia elétrica descontrolados por possuírem motores elétricos muitas vezes super-dimensionados, trabalhando em vazio ou em horário de pico. Sendo este tipo de atividade responsável por grande parte do gasto energético da empresa. Existem dois fatores que avaliam o modo de utilização desta energia, denominados fator de potência (fp) e fator de carga (fc), que indicam a eficiência e racionalidade da forma de utilização da energia elétrica, respectivamente. A necessidade de uma avaliação global da utilização da energia, levando em consideração os dois fatores citados, é realizada por especialistas da área energética para a determinação da situação real da empresa. Podendo ser uma tarefa árdua muitas vezes demorada. Para isto é necessária uma análise estatística descritiva dos dados. Este trabalho tem como objetivo realizar esta analise de dados de uma empresa de refino de óleo vegetal.

Demanda energética de máquinas agrícolas na implantação da cultura do sorgo forrageiro

Forage sorghum can be grown in areas and environmental conditions dry and warm, where the productivity of other forage plants can often be uneconomical. The soil disturbance can be made only on the lines of planting (direct seeding) or entirely from the area for seeding (conventional tillage), as plowing, harrowing, subsoiling and chiseling (minimum tillage). The displacement speed ideal for planting is one in which the groove is opened and closed without removing the over-ground, allowing the distribution of seed spacing and depth constant. The experiment was conducted in a soil classified as Typic Oxisol at Lageado Experimental Farm, Faculty of Agronomic Sciences, UNESP, Botucatu campus. This study aimed to evaluate the response of sorghum in four forward speeds (3, 5, 6 and 9 km h-1) and four systems of soil management: SD (direct seeding), GP (harrow + sowing), LPG (disc harrow and two light disking + sowing) and CR (scarification and seeding). Data was subjected to analysis of variance in a factorial 4 x 4 and a randomized block design with split plots. The following parameters were determined: average speed, average strength of the drawbar, the average power drawbar, theoretical field capacity of the tractor-equipment, fuel consumption per hour. For the conditions under which the experiment was conducted, it was concluded that the hourly fuel consumption was not influenced by tillage systems and was inversely proportional to the increase of speed work, and that the change of speed in the sowing operation did not provide additional the values of average traction force on the bar of the tractor-planter.

Características agronômicas e demanda energética de cultivares de soja sob efeito dos sistemas de preparo do solo

The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of preparation: intermediate grade, minimum tillage and no-till on the agronomic characteristics and energy demand of transgenic soybean cultivars and non-GMO soybeans. Soil preparation aims at improving physical, chemical and biological conditions, aiming at good emergence and plant development. The different types of tillage may interfere with the agronomic characteristics and productivity of plants, and in energy use which can cause variation in production costs. Genetically modified plants can be one of the alternatives for reduction of production costs in crops by reducing pesticide applications, enabling higher productivity with less environmental impact. The test was conducted in 2010/2011 at the agricultural Experimental Farm Lageado, belonging to the Faculty of Agronomic Sciences – UNESP, located in the city of Botucatu, SP in an area using no-till systems for the past 12 years. The experiment was carried out in a 3 x 2 factorial, randomized treatments were comprised of three soil preparation systems, minimum cultivation, intermediate grade preparation and no-till, with two cultivars of soybeans: MGBR-46 Conquest (conventional), Valuable RR (Transgenic). The data obtained was submitted to variance analysis using Tukey test at a 5% probability. With the results analyzed it might be observed that there was no significant difference between treatments, in the variables, the percentage of soil cover, final soybean plant population, grain yield and plant height. The results obtained show that the no-till system resulted in higher productivity than conventional tillage and minimum cultivation. The higher specific energy use per area was observed in minimum cultivation with a chisel plough, when compared to the preparation across the grid. The greatest fuel consumption was to treat minimum cultivation with chisel plough. The highest values were found in the skating system of minimum cultivation, being greater in conventional tillage system. It is more satisfactory for the producer to sow transgenic soy using a no-till system, because productivity retrieved from that system compensates for fuel expenditure.

Demanda energética em diferentes manejos de solo e híbridos de milho

This study aimed to account the energy balance of six different farming systems: CMT (minimum tillage with transgenic corn); CMNT (minimum tillage with non-transgenic corn); PCT (conventional tillage with transgenic corn); PCNT (conventional tillage with non-transgenic corn); PDT (no-tillage system with transgenic corn) and PDNT (no-tillage system with non-transgenic corn). The study was carried out at the Experimental Farm Lageado FCA/Unesp, Botucatu - SP. The energy balance was performed by subtracting the total energy inputs by the total energy output. Energy efficiency was calculated by dividing the total energy output by the total energy inputs. The total values ​​of energy inputs and outputs were expressed in MJ.ha-1 (mega joules per hectare). To calculate the energy inputs were accounted the fuel consumption and lubricants, depreciation energy of machinery and implements, manpower and agricultural inputs. The energy outputs were calculated according to the maize yield. The result shows that the system PDT was the system that had better energy efficiency and the system that had the lowest efficiency was the PCT system. The system with lower energy demand was the PDT and the greatest demand was PCNT.