Recovery or decline of the Northwestern Black Sea: A societal choice revealed by socio-ecological modelling

During recent decades anthropogenic activities have dramatically impacted the Black Sea ecosystem. High levels of riverine nutrient input during the 1970s and 1980s caused eutrophic conditions including intense algal blooms resulting in hypoxia and the subsequent collapse of benthic habitats on the northwestern shelf. Intense fishing pressure also depleted stocks of many apex predators, contributing to an increase in planktivorous fish that are now the focus of fishing efforts. Additionally, the Black Sea's ecosystem changed even further with the introduction of exotic species. Economic collapse of the surrounding socialist republics in the early 1990s resulted in decreased nutrient loading which has allowed the Black Sea ecosystem to start to recover, but under rapidly changing economic and political conditions, future recovery is uncertain. In this study we use a multidisciplinary approach to integrate information from socio-economic and ecological systems to model the effects of future development scenarios on the marine environment of the northwestern Black Sea shelf. The Driver–Pressure–State-Impact-Response framework was used to construct conceptual models, explicitly mapping impacts of socio-economic Drivers on the marine ecosystem. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), a stochastic modelling technique, were used to quantify these causal relationships, operationalise models and assess the effects of alternative development paths on the Black Sea ecosystem. BBNs use probabilistic dependencies as a common metric, allowing the integration of quantitative and qualitative information. Under the Baseline Scenario, recovery of the Black Sea appears tenuous as the exploitation of environmental resources (agriculture, fishing and shipping) increases with continued economic development of post-Soviet countries. This results in the loss of wetlands through drainage and reclamation. Water transparency decreases as phytoplankton bloom and this deterioration in water quality leads to the degradation of coastal plant communities (Cystoseira, seagrass) and also Phyllophora habitat on the shelf. Decomposition of benthic plants results in hypoxia killing flora and fauna associated with these habitats. Ecological pressure from these factors along with constant levels of fishing activity results in target stocks remaining depleted. Of the four Alternative Scenarios, two show improvements on the Baseline ecosystem condition, with improved waste water treatment and reduced fishing pressure, while the other two show a worsening, due to increased natural resource exploitation leading to rapid reversal of any recent ecosystem recovery. From this we conclude that variations in economic policy have significant consequences for the health of the Black Sea, and ecosystem recovery is directly linked to social–economic choices.

An assessment of phytoplankton primary productivity in the Arctic Ocean from satellite ocean color/in situ chlorophyll-abased models

We investigated 32 net primary productivity (NPP) models by assessing skills to reproduce integrated NPP in the Arctic Ocean. The models were provided with two sources each of surface chlorophyll-a concentration (chlorophyll), photosynthetically available radiation (PAR), sea surface temperature (SST), and mixed-layer depth (MLD). The models were most sensitive to uncertainties in surface chlorophyll, generally performing better with in situ chlorophyll than with satellite-derived values. They were much less sensitive to uncertainties in PAR, SST, and MLD, possibly due to relatively narrow ranges of input data and/or relatively little difference between input data sources. Regardless of type or complexity, most of the models were not able to fully reproduce the variability of in situ NPP, whereas some of them exhibited almost no bias (i.e., reproduced the mean of in situ NPP). The models performed relatively well in low-productivity seasons as well as in sea ice-covered/deep-water regions. Depth-resolved models correlated more with in situ NPP than other model types, but had a greater tendency to overestimate mean NPP whereas absorption-based models exhibited the lowest bias associated with weaker correlation. The models performed better when a subsurface chlorophyll-a maximum (SCM) was absent. As a group, the models overestimated mean NPP, however this was partly offset by some models underestimating NPP when a SCM was present. Our study suggests that NPP models need to be carefully tuned for the Arctic Ocean because most of the models performing relatively well were those that used Arctic-relevant parameters.

Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management

Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries. In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements were identified that can be addressed without further model development including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is a need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of the strengths and limitations of ecosystem models.

Multi-ionization of helium and lithium using the independent electron and independent event models with intrinsic CDW

Cross sections for the multi-ionization of He and Li are presented for impact energies in the range of 50 to 1000 keV/amu. These are calculated using the eikonal initial state approximation to represent the input and exit channels of the active electrons. The ionization process is simulated in a variety of ways, most notably an attempt to account for the effects of electron correlation via the inclusion of a continuum density of states (CDS) term. Inadequacies, of the CDW formulation at small impact parameters, and of the models themselves, are discussed and conclusions are drawn on what repercussions this has for the cross sections calculated.

Coordination and movement pathology: models of structure and function

Here we consider the role of abstract models in advancing our understanding of movement pathology. Models of movement coordination and control provide the frameworks necessary for the design and interpretation of studies of acquired and developmental disorders. These models do not however provide the resolution necessary to reveal the nature of the functional impairments that characterise specific movement pathologies. In addition, they do not provide a mapping between the structural bases of various pathologies and the associated disorders of movement. Current and prospective approaches to the study and treatment of movement disorders are discussed. It is argued that the appreciation of structure-function relationships, to which these approaches give rise, represents a challenge to current models of interlimb coordination, and a stimulus for their continued development. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparisons, mental models, and the action effect in judgments of regret

People tend to attribute more regret to a character who has decided to take action and experienced a negative outcome than to one who has decided not to act and experienced a negative outcome. For some decisions, however, this finding is not observed in a between-participants design and thus appears to rely on comparisons between people's representations of action and their representations of inaction. In this article, we outline a mental models account that explains findings from studies that have used within- and between-participants designs, and we suggest that, for decisions with uncertain counterfactual outcomes, information about the consequences of a decision to act causes people to flesh out their representation of the counterfactual states of affairs for inaction. In three experiments, we confirm our predictions about participants' fleshing out of representations, demonstrating that an action effect occurs only when information about the consequences of action is available to participants as they rate the nonactor and when this information about action is informative with respect to judgments about inaction. It is important to note that the action effect always occurs when the decision scenario specifies certain counterfactual outcomes. These results suggest that people sometimes base their attributions of regret on comparisons among different sets of mental models.

Viscoelastic Material Models of Polypropylene for Thermoforming Applications

Polypropylene (PP), a semi-crystalline material, is typically solid phase thermoformed at temperatures associated with crystalline melting, generally in the 150° to 160°Celsius range. In this very narrow thermoforming window the mechanical properties of the material rapidly decline with increasing temperature and these large changes in properties make Polypropylene one of the more difficult materials to process by thermoforming. Measurement of the deformation behaviour of a material under processing conditions is particularly important for accurate numerical modelling of thermoforming processes. This paper presents the findings of a study into the physical behaviour of industrial thermoforming grades of Polypropylene. Practical tests were performed using custom built materials testing machines and thermoforming equipment at Queen′s University Belfast. Numerical simulations of these processes were constructed to replicate thermoforming conditions using industry standard Finite Element Analysis software, namely ABAQUS and custom built user material model subroutines. Several variant constitutive models were used to represent the behaviour of the Polypropylene materials during processing. This included a range of phenomenological, rheological and blended constitutive models. The paper discusses approaches to modelling industrial plug-assisted thermoforming operations using Finite Element Analysis techniques and the range of material models constructed and investigated. It directly compares practical results to numerical predictions. The paper culminates discussing the learning points from using Finite Element Methods to simulate the plug-assisted thermoforming of Polypropylene, which presents complex contact, thermal, friction and material modelling challenges. The paper makes recommendations as to the relative importance of these inputs in general terms with regard to correlating to experimentally gathered data. The paper also presents recommendations as to the approaches to be taken to secure simulation predictions of improved accuracy.

Electronic structure and total energy of interstitial hydrogen in iron: Tight-binding models

An application of the tight binding approximation is presented for the description of electronic structure and interatomic force in magnetic iron, both pure and containing hydrogen impurities. We assess the simple canonical d-band description in comparison to a non orthogonal model including s and d bands. The transferability of our models is tested against known properties including the segregation energies of hydrogen to vacancies and to surfaces of iron. In many cases agreement is remarkably good, opening up the way to quantum mechanical atomistic simulation of the effects of hydrogen on mechanical properties.

Generalized social trust across 22 European countries: A multi-level analysis of four competing models

Concern with what can explain variation in generalized social trust has led to an abundance of theoretical models. Defining generalized social trust as a belief in human benevolence, we focus on the emancipation theory and social capital theory as well as the ethnic diversity and economic development models of trust. We then determine which dimensions of individuals’ behavior and attitudes as well as of their national context are the most important predictors. Using data from 20 countries that participated in round one of the European Social Survey, we test these models at their respective level of analysis, individual and/or national. Our analysis revealed that individuals’ own trust in the political system as a moral and competent institution was the most important predictor of generalized social trust at the individual level, while a country’s level of affluence was the most important contextual predictor, indicating that different dimensions are significant at the two levels of analysis. This analysis also raised further questions as to the meaning of social capital at the two levels of analysis and the conceptual equivalence of its civic engagement dimension across cultures.

Framework for Establishing Limits of Tabular Aerodynamic Models for Flight Dynamics Analysis

This paper describes the use of the Euler equations for the generation and testing of tabular aerodynamic models for flight dynamics analysis. Maneuvers for the AGARD Standard Dynamics Model sharp leading-edge wind-tunnel geometry are considered as a test case. Wind-tunnel data is first used to validate the prediction of static and dynamic coefficients at both low and high angles, featuring complex vortical flow, with good agreement obtained at low to moderate angles of attack. Then the generation of aerodynamic tables is described based on a data fusion approach. Time-optimal maneuvers are generated based on these tables, including level flight trim, pull-ups at constant and varying incidence, and level and 90 degrees turns. The maneuver definition includes the aircraft states and also the control deflections to achieve the motion. The main point of the paper is then to assess the validity of the aerodynamic tables which were used to define the maneuvers. This is done by replaying them, including the control surface motions, through the time accurate computational fluid dynamics code. The resulting forces and moments are compared with the tabular values to assess the presence of inadequately modeled dynamic or unsteady effects. The agreement between the tables and the replay is demonstrated for slow maneuvers. Increasing rate maneuvers show discrepancies which are ascribed to vortical flow hysteresis at the higher rate motions. The framework is suitable for application to more complex viscous flow models, and is powerful for the assessment of the validity of aerodynamics models of the type currently used for studies of flight dynamics.

Validation of fixed speed induction generator models for inertial response using wind farm measurements

This paper outlines the use of phasor measurement unit (PMU) records to validate models of fixed speed induction generator (FSIG)-based wind farms during frequency transients. Wind turbine manufacturers usually create their own proprietary models which they can supply to power system utilities for stability studies, subject to confidentiality agreements. However, it is desirable to confirm the accuracy of supplied models with measurements from the particular installation, in order to assess their validity under real field conditions. This is prudent due to possible changes in control algorithms and design retrofits, not accurately reflected or omitted in the supplied model. One important aspect of such models, especially for smaller power systems with limited inertia, is their accuracy during system frequency transients. This paper, therefore, assesses the accuracy of FSIG models with regard to frequency stability, and hence validates a subset of the model dynamics. Such models can then be used with confidence to assess wider system stability implications. The measured and simulated response of a wind farm using doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) technology is also assessed.

TAP studies of ammonia decomposition over Ru and Ir catalysts

The Temporal Analysis of Products (TAP) technique has been used to investigate the mechanism involved in the catalytic decomposition of NH3 over a series of catalysts consisting of activated carbon supported Ru (promoted and non-promoted with Na) and over an activated carbon supported Ir. An extensive study of the role played by both the support and the promoter in the

Detecting the effects of diversity on measures of ecosystem function: experimental design, null models and empirical observations

Here we present a novel experimental approach to examine the relationship between diversity and ecosystem Function. We develop four null predictive models, with which to differentiate between the 'sampling effect' - the chance inclusion of a highly productive species, and 'species complementarity' - the complementary use of resources by species that differ in their niche or resource use. We investigate the effects of manipulating species and functional richness on ecosystem function in marine benthic system and using empirical data from our own experiments we illustrate the application of these models.