Implementing statistical learning methods through Bayesian networks. Part 1: a guide to Bayesian parameter estimation using forensic science data

As a thorough aggregation of probability and graph theory, Bayesian networks currently enjoy widespread interest as a means for studying factors that affect the coherent evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science. Paper I of this series of papers intends to contribute to the discussion of Bayesian networks as a framework that is helpful for both illustrating and implementing statistical procedures that are commonly employed for the study of uncertainties (e.g. the estimation of unknown quantities). While the respective statistical procedures are widely described in literature, the primary aim of this paper is to offer an essentially non-technical introduction on how interested readers may use these analytical approaches - with the help of Bayesian networks - for processing their own forensic science data. Attention is mainly drawn to the structure and underlying rationale of a series of basic and context-independent network fragments that users may incorporate as building blocs while constructing larger inference models. As an example of how this may be done, the proposed concepts will be used in a second paper (Part II) for specifying graphical probability networks whose purpose is to assist forensic scientists in the evaluation of scientific evidence encountered in the context of forensic document examination (i.e. results of the analysis of black toners present on printed or copied documents).

Estimation of the noisy component of anatomical backgrounds.

The knowledge of the relationship that links radiation dose and image quality is a prerequisite to any optimization of medical diagnostic radiology. Image quality depends, on the one hand, on the physical parameters such as contrast, resolution, and noise, and on the other hand, on characteristics of the observer that assesses the image. While the role of contrast and resolution is precisely defined and recognized, the influence of image noise is not yet fully understood. Its measurement is often based on imaging uniform test objects, even though real images contain anatomical backgrounds whose statistical nature is much different from test objects used to assess system noise. The goal of this study was to demonstrate the importance of variations in background anatomy by quantifying its effect on a series of detection tasks. Several types of mammographic backgrounds and signals were examined by psychophysical experiments in a two-alternative forced-choice detection task. According to hypotheses concerning the strategy used by the human observers, their signal to noise ratio was determined. This variable was also computed for a mathematical model based on the statistical decision theory. By comparing theoretical model and experimental results, the way that anatomical structure is perceived has been analyzed. Experiments showed that the observer's behavior was highly dependent upon both system noise and the anatomical background. The anatomy partly acts as a signal recognizable as such and partly as a pure noise that disturbs the detection process. This dual nature of the anatomy is quantified. It is shown that its effect varies according to its amplitude and the profile of the object being detected. The importance of the noisy part of the anatomy is, in some situations, much greater than the system noise. Hence, reducing the system noise by increasing the dose will not improve task performance. This observation indicates that the tradeoff between dose and image quality might be optimized by accepting a higher system noise. This could lead to a better resolution, more contrast, or less dose.

Different colors of light lead to different adaptation and activation as determined by high-density EEG.

Light adaptation is crucial for coping with the varying levels of ambient light. Using high-density electroencephalography (EEG), we investigated how adaptation to light of different colors affects brain responsiveness. In a within-subject design, sixteen young participants were adapted first to dim white light and then to blue, green, red, or white bright light (one color per session in a randomized order). Immediately after both dim and bright light adaptation, we presented brief light pulses and recorded event-related potentials (ERPs). We analyzed ERP response strengths and brain topographies and determined the underlying sources using electrical source imaging. Between 150 and 261ms after stimulus onset, the global field power (GFP) was higher after dim than bright light adaptation. This effect was most pronounced with red light and localized in the frontal lobe, the fusiform gyrus, the occipital lobe and the cerebellum. After bright light adaptation, within the first 100ms after light onset, stronger responses were found than after dim light adaptation for all colors except for red light. Differences between conditions were localized in the frontal lobe, the cingulate gyrus, and the cerebellum. These results indicate that very short-term EEG brain responses are influenced by prior light adaptation and the spectral quality of the light stimulus. We show that the early EEG responses are differently affected by adaptation to different colors of light which may contribute to known differences in performance and reaction times in cognitive tests.

Densité urbaine et psychose - est-ce que vivre en ville rend schizophrène [Urban density and psychosis - does living in a city cause schizophrenia?].

While it has often been stated that prevalence of schizophrenia is the same around the world, many publications have shown this illness is twice more frequent in urban areas. Although many hypotheses have been proposed, the mechanisms explaining this phenomenon are still unknown. Besides potential biological explanations, a certain number of hypotheses emerging from social sciences have recently enriched the debate. This article reviews the literature related to this issue and describes the development of a research projects conducted in collaboration between the Institut of Geography at the University of Neuchâtel, the Department of Psychiatry at the Lausanne University and the Swiss branch of ISPS, a society promoting the psychological treatment of schizophrenia and other psychoses.

Lag-one autocorrelation in short series: Estimation and hypothesis testing

In the first part of the study, nine estimators of the first-order autoregressive parameter are reviewed and a new estimator is proposed. The relationships and discrepancies between the estimators are discussed in order to achieve a clear differentiation. In the second part of the study, the precision in the estimation of autocorrelation is studied. The performance of the ten lag-one autocorrelation estimators is compared in terms of Mean Square Error (combining bias and variance) using data series generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that there is not a single optimal estimator for all conditions, suggesting that the estimator ought to be chosen according to sample size and to the information available of the possible direction of the serial dependence. Additionally, the probability of labelling an actually existing autocorrelation as statistically significant is explored using Monte Carlo sampling. The power estimates obtained are quite similar among the tests associated with the different estimators. These estimates evidence the small probability of detecting autocorrelation in series with less than 20 measurement times.

Potato crop growth as affected by nitrogen and plant density

Growth and development variables and dry matter characteristics were studied for cultivar Snowden of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) to evaluate nitrogen and plant density influence. Disregarding ending of season plant stress, the average number of actives haulms per plant was five and it was not affected by plant spacing. However, seasonal and final number of active haulms per plant were increased at 200 kg/ha of nitrogen. Maximum stem elongation was reached quickly with double density and had the tendency to keep constant at the highest and lowest nitrogen levels after 70 days after planting. Specific stem mass defined as mass per unit stem length was established as an indirect measure of stem thickness and load capacity. Specific leaf mass position in plant was higher at upper stem leaves, increased as plant density increased and did not vary markedly over time throughout the season. The rate of leaf appearance increased drastically due to more branching caused by high nitrogen level, and increased above ground dry matter per plant. Canopy growth and development influenced main tuber yield components. The number of active tubers per haulm decreased after 60 days after planting showing that tuberization is reversible. Tuber growth functions were established allowing the estimate of dry biomass partitioning coefficients for each plant organ.

Deletion of mu- and kappa-opioid receptors in mice changes epidermal hypertrophy, density of peripheral nerve endings, and itch behavior.

The mu- (MOR) and kappa- (KOR) opioid receptors have been implicated in the regulation of homeostasis of non-neuronal cells, such as keratinocytes, and sensations like pain and chronic pruritus. Therefore, we have studied the phenotype of skin after deletion of MOR and KOR. In addition, we applied a dry skin model in these knockout mice and compared the different mice before and after induction of the dermatitis in terms of epidermal thickness, epidermal peripheral nerve ending distribution, dermal inflammatory infiltrate (mast cells, CD4 positive lymphocytes), and scratching behavior. MOR knockout mice reveal as phenotype a significantly thinner epidermis and a higher density of epidermal fiber staining by protein gene product 9.5 than the wild-type counterparts. Epidermal hypertrophy, induced by the dry skin dermatitis, was significantly less developed in MOR knockout than in wild-type mice. Neither mast cells nor CD4 T(h)-lymphocytes are involved in the changes of epidermal nerve endings and epidermal homeostasis. Finally, behavior experiments revealed that MOR and KOR knockout mice scratch less after induction of dry skin dermatitis than wild-type mice. These results indicate that MOR and KOR are important in skin homeostasis, epidermal nerve fiber regulation, and pathophysiology of itching.

Comparison of methods for estimation of needle losses in Scots pine following defoliation by Bupalus piniaria

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Variation in soil nutrient concentrations and bulk density within peatland forest sites

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Visibility and Speed Estimation of Iowa State Highway Commission Snowplows, HR-174, 1975

Many accidents involving Iowa snowplows have happened in recent years. This study investigated the influence of time of day, sex of subject, type of snowplow sign and snowplow speed on the criteria of oncoming driver reaction time and his estimate of snowplow speed. Film strips were made of a car passing a snow-Plow under various experimental conditions. These experimental movie strips were viewed in the laboratory by college student drivers who were asked to indicate their reaction time to slow down and to estimate the speed of the snowplow being passed. The generally best sign condition for the snowplow was to have a striped rear sign and a speed-proportional flashing light in addition to the standard rotating beacon on top of the truck. Several recommendations were made.

A multicentre, retrospective case-control study assessing the role of trabecular bone score (TBS) in menopausal Caucasian women with low areal bone mineral density (BMDa): Analysing the odds of vertebral fracture.

INTRODUCTION: The trabecular bone score (TBS) is a new parameter that is determined from grey level analysis of DXA images. It relies on the mean thickness and volume fraction of trabecular bone microarchitecture. This was a preliminary case-control study to evaluate the potential diagnostic value of TBS, both alone and combined with bone mineral density (BMDa), in the assessment of vertebral fracture. METHODS: Out of a subject pool of 441 Caucasian, postmenopausal women between the ages of 50 and 80 years, we identified 42 women with osteoporosis-related vertebral fractures, and compared them with 126 age-matched women without any fractures (1 case: 3 controls). Primary outcomes were BMDa and TBS. Inter-group comparisons were undertaken using Student's t-tests and Wilcoxon signed ranks tests for parametric and non-parametric data, respectively. Odds ratios for vertebral fracture were calculated for each incremental one standard deviation decrease in BMDa and TBS, and areas under the receiver operating curve (AUC) calculated and sensitivity analysis were conducted to compare BMDa alone, TBS alone, and the combination of BMDa and TBS. Subgroup analyses were performed specifically for women with osteopenia, and for women with T-score-defined osteoporosis. RESULTS: Across all subjects (n=42, 126) weight and body mass index were greater and BMDa and TBS both less in women with fractures. The odds of vertebral fracture were 3.20 (95% CI, 2.01-5.08) for each incremental decrease in TBS, 1.95 (1.34-2.84) for BMDa, and 3.62 (2.32-5.65) for BMDa + TBS combined. The AUC was greater for TBS than for BMDa (0.746 vs. 0.662, p=0.011). At iso-specificity (61.9%) or iso-sensitivity (61.9%) for both BMDa and TBS, TBS + BMDa sensitivity or specificity was 19.1% or 16.7% greater than for either BMDa or TBS alone. Among subjects with osteoporosis (n=11, 40) both BMDa (p=0.0008) and TBS (p=0.0001) were lower in subjects with fractures, and both OR and AUC (p=0.013) for BMDa + TBS were greater than for BMDa alone (OR=4.04 [2.35-6.92] vs. 2.43 [1.49-3.95]; AUC=0.835 [0.755-0.897] vs. 0.718 [0.627-0.797], p=0.013). Among subjects with osteopenia, TBS was lower in women with fractures (p=0.0296), but BMDa was not (p=0.75). Similarly, the OR for TBS was statistically greater than 1.00 (2.82, 1.27-6.26), but not for BMDa (1.12, 0.56-2.22), as was the AUC (p=0.035), but there was no statistical difference in specificity (p=0.357) or sensitivity (p=0.678). CONCLUSIONS: The trabecular bone score warrants further study as to whether it has any clinical application in osteoporosis detection and the evaluation of fracture risk.

Effects of soil management systems on soil microbial activity, bulk density and chemical properties

The objective of this experiment was to study the effects of soil management systems on the bulk density, chemical soil properties, and on the soil microbial activity on a Latossolo Vermelho distrófico (Oxisol). Soil samples were collected from plots under the following management conditions: a) natural dense "cerrado" vegetation (savanna); b) degraded Brachiaria decumbens pasture, 20 years old; c) no-tillage treatment with annual crop sequence (bean, corn, soybean and dark-oat in continuous rotation), 8 years old; d) conventional tillage treatment with crop residues added to the soil, and annual crop sequence, 10 years old. The continuous use of no-tillage system resulted in an increase in microbial biomass and decrease in soil basal respiration, therefore displaying evident long-term effects on the increase of soil C content. The no-tillage system also provided an improvement in bulk density and chemical properties of the soil. Hence, the no-tillage management system could be an alternative for the conservation and maintenance of physical and chemical conditions and the productive potential of "cerrado" soils.

Microfibril angle and density patterns of fertilized and irrigated Norway spruce

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