Future storm surge impacts on insurable losses for the North Sea region

The influence of climate change on storm surges including increased mean sea level change and the associated insurable losses are assessed for the North Sea basin. In doing so, the newly developed approach couples a dynamical storm surge model with a loss model. The key element of the approach is the generation of a probabilistic storm surge event set. Together with parametrizations of the inland propagation and the coastal protection failure probability this enables the estimation of annual expected losses. The sensitivity to the parametrizations is rather weak except when the assumption of high level of increased mean sea level change is made. Applying this approach to future scenarios shows a substantial increase of insurable losses with respect to the present day. Superimposing different mean sea level changes shows a nonlinear behavior at the country level, as the future storm surge changes are higher for Germany and Denmark. Thus, the study exhibits the necessity to assess the socio-economic impacts of coastal floods by combining the expected sea level rise with storm surge projections.

Losses of chromosome arms 4q, 8p, 13q and gain of 8q are correlated with increasing chromosomal instability in hepatocellular carcinoma

OBJECTIVE: Chromosomal instability is a key feature in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Array comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) revealed recurring structural aberrations, whereas fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) indicated an increasing number of numerical aberrations in dedifferentiating HCC. Therefore, we examined whether there was a correlation between structural and numerical aberrations of chromosomal instability in HCC. METHODS AND RESULTS: 27 HCC (5 well, 10 moderately, 12 lower differentiated) already cytogenetically characterized by aCGH were analyzed. FISH analysis using probes for chromosomes 1, 3, 7, 8 and 17 revealed 1.46-4.24 signals/nucleus, which correlated with the histological grade (well vs. moderately,p < 0.0003; moderately vs. lower, p < 0.004). The number of chromosomes to each other was stable with exceptions only seen for chromosome 8. Loss of 4q and 13q, respectively, were correlated with the number of aberrations detected by aCGH (p < 0.001, p < 0.005; Mann-Whitney test). Loss of 4q and gain of 8q were correlated with an increasing number of numerical aberrations detected by FISH (p < 0.020, p < 0.031). Loss of 8p was correlated with the number of structural imbalances seen in aCGH (p < 0.048), but not with the number of numerical changes seen in FISH. CONCLUSION: We found that losses of 4q, 8p and 13q were closely correlated with an increasing number of aberrations detected by aCGH, whereas a loss of 4q and a gain of 8q were also observed in the context of polyploidization, the cytogenetic correlate of morphological dedifferentiation.

Planting and production of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) as a bioenergy crop in Michigan's Upper Peninsula

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) is a perennial grass holding great promise as a biofuel resource. While Michigan’s Upper Peninsula has an appropriate land base and climatic conditions, there is little research exploring the possibilities of switchgrass production. The overall objectives of this research were to investigate switchgrass establishment in the northern edge of its distribution through: investigating the effects of competition on the germination and establishment of switchgrass through the developmental and competitive characteristics of Cave-in-Rock switchgrass and large crabgrass (Digitaria sanguinalis L.) in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula; and, determining the optimum planting depths and timing for switchgrass in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. For the competition study, a randomized complete block design was installed June 2009 at two locations in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. Four treatments (0, 1, 4, and 8 plants/m2) of crabgrass were planted with one switchgrass plant. There was a significant difference between switchgrass biomass produced in year one, as a function of crabgrass weed pressure. There was no significant difference between the switchgrass biomass produced in year two versus previous crabgrass weed pressure. There is a significant difference between switchgrass biomass produced in year one and two. For the depth and timing study, a completely randomized design was installed at two locations in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula on seven planting dates (three fall 2009, and four spring 2010); 25 seeds were planted 2 cm apart along 0.5 m rows at depths of: 0.6 cm, 1.3 cm, and 1.9 cm. Emergence and biomass yields were compared by planting date, and depths. A greenhouse seeding experiment was established using the same planting depths and parameters as the field study. The number of seedlings was tallied daily for 30 days. There was a significant difference in survivorship between the fall and spring planting dates, with the spring being more successful. Of the four spring planting dates, there was a significant difference between May and June in emergence and biomass yield. June planting dates had the most percent emergence and total survivorship. There is no significant difference between planting switchgrass at depths of 0.6 cm, 1.3 cm, and 1.9 cm. In conclusion, switchgrass showed no signs of a legacy effect of competition from year one, on biomass production. Overall, an antagonistic effect on switchgrass biomass yield during the establishment period has been observed as a result of increasing competing weed pressure. When planting switchgrass in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, it should be done in the spring, within the first two weeks of June, at any depth ranging from 0.6 cm to 1.9 cm.

Methods of Determining Porosity and Spatter Losses of Arc Welds

The original objective of this project was to determine the effect of varying current intensity and electrode coating composition upon the spatter losses and porosity of arc welds made by alternating current. This subject was suggested by the Welding Research Council of the Engineering Foundation, which is a clearing house for welding research in order to avoid du­plication of work.

Bringing high-throughput techniques to orphan crop of Africa: Highlights from the Tef TILLING Project

Orphan- or understudied-crops are mostly staple food crops in developing world. They are broadly classified under cereals, legumes, root crops, fruits and vegetables. These under-researched crops contribute to the diet of a large portion of resource-poor consumers and at the same time generate income for small-holder farmers in developing countries, particularly in Africa. In addition, they perform better than major crops of the world under extreme soil and climatic conditions. However, orphan crops are not without problems. Due to lack of scientific investigation, most of them produce low yields while others have a variety of toxins that affect the health of consumers. Here, we present some highlights on the status and future perspectives of the Tef Biotechnology Project that employs modern improvement technique in order to genetically improve tef (Eragrostis tef), one of the most important orphan crop in Africa. A reverse genetics approach known as TILLING (Targeting Induced Local Lesions IN Genome) is implemented in order to tackle lodging, the major yield limiting factor in tef.Key words: Orphan crops, underresearched crops, Eragrostis tef, TILLING, semi-dwarf.

Tropical cyclone-related socio-economic losses in the western North Pacific region

The western North Pacific (WNP) is the area of the world most frequently affected by tropical cyclones (TCs). However, little is known about the socio-economic impacts of TCs in this region, probably because of the limited relevant loss data. Here, loss data from Munich RE's NatCatSERVICE database is used, a high-quality and widely consulted database of natural disasters. In the country-level loss normalisation technique we apply, the original loss data are normalised to present-day exposure levels by using the respective country's nominal gross domestic product at purchasing power parity as a proxy for wealth. The main focus of our study is on the question of whether the decadal-scale TC variability observed in the Northwest Pacific region in recent decades can be shown to manifest itself economically in an associated variability in losses. It is shown that since 1980 the frequency of TC-related loss events in the WNP exhibited, apart from seasonal and interannual variations, interdecadal variability with a period of about 22 yr – driven primarily by corresponding variations of Northwest Pacific TCs. Compared to the long-term mean, the number of loss events was found to be higher (lower) by 14% (9%) in the positive (negative) phase of the decadal-scale WNP TC frequency variability. This was identified for the period 1980–2008 by applying a wavelet analysis technique. It was also possible to demonstrate the same low-frequency variability in normalised direct economic losses from TCs in the WNP region. The identification of possible physical mechanisms responsible for the observed decadal-scale Northwest Pacific TC variability will be the subject of future research, even if suggestions have already been made in earlier studies.