Tax Credits Contingent Liabilities Brief March 17, 2009

The Tax Credits Contingent Liabilities Report was created by the Tax Research and Program Analysis Section of the Iowa Department of Revenue (IDR) for the benefit of the Revenue Estimating Conference (REC). This report is part of the Tax Credits Tracking and Analysis Program. The goal of the program is to provide a repository for information concerning the awarding, usage, and effectiveness of tax credits. This report forecasts tax credit claims assuming that all available awarded credits are issued and then, along with forecasted credits, are subsequently claimed.

Tax Credits Contingent Liabilities Brief August 14, 2009

The Tax Credits Contingent Liabilities Report was created by the Tax Research and Program Analysis Section of the Iowa Department of Revenue (IDR) for the benefit of the Revenue Estimating Conference (REC). This report is part of the Tax Credits Tracking and Analysis Program. The goal of the program is to provide a repository for information concerning the awarding, usage, and effectiveness of tax credits. This report forecasts tax credit claims assuming that all available awarded credits are issued and then, along with forecasted credits, are subsequently claimed.

Tax Credits Contingent Liabilities Brief October 7, 2009

The Tax Credits Contingent Liabilities Report was created by the Tax Research and Program Analysis Section of the Iowa Department of Revenue (IDR) for the benefit of the Revenue Estimating Conference (REC). This report is part of the Tax Credits Tracking and Analysis Program. The goal of the program is to provide a repository for information concerning the awarding, usage, and effectiveness of tax credits. This report forecasts tax credit claims assuming that all available awarded credits are issued and then, along with forecasted credits, are subsequently claimed.

Iowa Efficiency Review Report to Governor Chet Culver and Lieutenant Governor Patty Judge, December 18,2009

Public Works is pleased to present the following Iowa Efficiency Review Report to Governor Chet Culver and Lieutenant Governor Patty Judge. This report is the product of a collaboration between our consulting team and very dedicated Iowa state employees who worked with us to share ideas and cost‐saving proposals under very difficult circumstances caused by the national financial crisis that is affecting state budgets throughout the country. For example, during the course of this review, Iowa departments were also asked to develop across‐the‐board cuts to achieve immediate reductions in state spending. It is a credit to Iowa state government that departmental staff continued to work on this Efficiency Review Report despite these challenges of also having to develop across‐the‐board budget cuts to achieve a balanced budget. We hope that these ideas will set the stage for further future budget improvements from achieving efficiencies, eliminating outdated practices, increasing the use of information technology solutions and finding new sources of non‐tax funding. The Efficiency Review Team faced a second challenge. Statewide Efficiency Reviews usually take from nine to 12 months to complete. In Iowa, we worked with dedicated department staff to complete our work in less than 4 months. The Governor challenged all of us to work intensely and to give him our best thinking on efficiency proposals so that he could act as quickly as possible to position state government for success over the next several years.

Tax Credits Contingent Liabilities Brief, December 11, 2009

The Tax Credits Contingent Liabilities Report was created by the Tax Research and Program Analysis Section of the Iowa Department of Revenue (IDR) for the benefit of the Revenue Estimating Conference (REC). This report is part of the Tax Credits Tracking and Analysis Program. The goal of the program is to provide a repository for information concerning the awarding, usage, and effectiveness of tax credits. This report forecasts tax credit claims assuming that all available awarded credits are issued and then, along with forecasted credits, are subsequently claimed.

INTEGRAL and XMM-Newton observations towards the unidentified MeV source GRO J1411-64.

The COMPTEL unidentified source GRO J1411-64 was observed by INTEGRAL, and its central part, also by XMM-Newton. The data analysis shows no hint for new detections at hard X-rays. The upper limits in flux herein presented constrain the energy spectrum of whatever was producing GRO J1411-64, imposing, in the framework of earlier COMPTEL observations, the existence of a peak in power output located somewhere between 300-700 keV for the so-called low state. The Circinus Galaxy is the only source detected within the 4$\sigma$ location error of GRO J1411-64, but can be safely excluded as the possible counterpart: the extrapolation of the energy spectrum is well below the one for GRO J1411-64 at MeV energies. 22 significant sources (likelihood $> 10$) were extracted and analyzed from XMM-Newton data. Only one of these sources, XMMU J141255.6-635932, is spectrally compatible with GRO J1411-64 although the fact the soft X-ray observations do not cover the full extent of the COMPTEL source position uncertainty make an association hard to quantify and thus risky. The unique peak of the power output at high energies (hard X-rays and gamma-rays) resembles that found in the SED seen in blazars or microquasars. However, an analysis using a microquasar model consisting on a magnetized conical jet filled with relativistic electrons which radiate through synchrotron and inverse Compton scattering with star, disk, corona and synchrotron photons shows that it is hard to comply with all observational constrains. This and the non-detection at hard X-rays introduce an a-posteriori question mark upon the physical reality of this source, which is discussed in some detail.

Tax Credits Contingent Liabilities Brief March 11, 2010

The Tax Credits Contingent Liabilities Report was created by the Tax Research and Program Analysis Section of the Iowa Department of Revenue (IDR) for the benefit of the Revenue Estimating Conference (REC). This report is part of the Tax Credits Tracking and Analysis Program. The goal of the program is to provide a repository for information concerning the awarding, usage, and effectiveness of tax credits. This report forecasts tax credit claims assuming that all available awarded credits are issued and then, along with forecasted credits, are subsequently claimed.

Time-lapse and probabilistic inversion strategies for plane-wave electromagnetic data.

L'utilisation efficace des systèmes géothermaux, la séquestration du CO2 pour limiter le changement climatique et la prévention de l'intrusion d'eau salée dans les aquifères costaux ne sont que quelques exemples qui démontrent notre besoin en technologies nouvelles pour suivre l'évolution des processus souterrains à partir de la surface. Un défi majeur est d'assurer la caractérisation et l'optimisation des performances de ces technologies à différentes échelles spatiales et temporelles. Les méthodes électromagnétiques (EM) d'ondes planes sont sensibles à la conductivité électrique du sous-sol et, par conséquent, à la conductivité électrique des fluides saturant la roche, à la présence de fractures connectées, à la température et aux matériaux géologiques. Ces méthodes sont régies par des équations valides sur de larges gammes de fréquences, permettant détudier de manières analogues des processus allant de quelques mètres sous la surface jusqu'à plusieurs kilomètres de profondeur. Néanmoins, ces méthodes sont soumises à une perte de résolution avec la profondeur à cause des propriétés diffusives du champ électromagnétique. Pour cette raison, l'estimation des modèles du sous-sol par ces méthodes doit prendre en compte des informations a priori afin de contraindre les modèles autant que possible et de permettre la quantification des incertitudes de ces modèles de façon appropriée. Dans la présente thèse, je développe des approches permettant la caractérisation statique et dynamique du sous-sol à l'aide d'ondes EM planes. Dans une première partie, je présente une approche déterministe permettant de réaliser des inversions répétées dans le temps (time-lapse) de données d'ondes EM planes en deux dimensions. Cette stratégie est basée sur l'incorporation dans l'algorithme d'informations a priori en fonction des changements du modèle de conductivité électrique attendus. Ceci est réalisé en intégrant une régularisation stochastique et des contraintes flexibles par rapport à la gamme des changements attendus en utilisant les multiplicateurs de Lagrange. J'utilise des normes différentes de la norme l2 pour contraindre la structure du modèle et obtenir des transitions abruptes entre les régions du model qui subissent des changements dans le temps et celles qui n'en subissent pas. Aussi, j'incorpore une stratégie afin d'éliminer les erreurs systématiques de données time-lapse. Ce travail a mis en évidence l'amélioration de la caractérisation des changements temporels par rapport aux approches classiques qui réalisent des inversions indépendantes à chaque pas de temps et comparent les modèles. Dans la seconde partie de cette thèse, j'adopte un formalisme bayésien et je teste la possibilité de quantifier les incertitudes sur les paramètres du modèle dans l'inversion d'ondes EM planes. Pour ce faire, je présente une stratégie d'inversion probabiliste basée sur des pixels à deux dimensions pour des inversions de données d'ondes EM planes et de tomographies de résistivité électrique (ERT) séparées et jointes. Je compare les incertitudes des paramètres du modèle en considérant différents types d'information a priori sur la structure du modèle et différentes fonctions de vraisemblance pour décrire les erreurs sur les données. Les résultats indiquent que la régularisation du modèle est nécessaire lorsqu'on a à faire à un large nombre de paramètres car cela permet d'accélérer la convergence des chaînes et d'obtenir des modèles plus réalistes. Cependent, ces contraintes mènent à des incertitudes d'estimations plus faibles, ce qui implique des distributions a posteriori qui ne contiennent pas le vrai modèledans les régions ou` la méthode présente une sensibilité limitée. Cette situation peut être améliorée en combinant des méthodes d'ondes EM planes avec d'autres méthodes complémentaires telles que l'ERT. De plus, je montre que le poids de régularisation des paramètres et l'écart-type des erreurs sur les données peuvent être retrouvés par une inversion probabiliste. Finalement, j'évalue la possibilité de caractériser une distribution tridimensionnelle d'un panache de traceur salin injecté dans le sous-sol en réalisant une inversion probabiliste time-lapse tridimensionnelle d'ondes EM planes. Etant donné que les inversions probabilistes sont très coûteuses en temps de calcul lorsque l'espace des paramètres présente une grande dimension, je propose une stratégie de réduction du modèle ou` les coefficients de décomposition des moments de Legendre du panache de traceur injecté ainsi que sa position sont estimés. Pour ce faire, un modèle de résistivité de base est nécessaire. Il peut être obtenu avant l'expérience time-lapse. Un test synthétique montre que la méthodologie marche bien quand le modèle de résistivité de base est caractérisé correctement. Cette méthodologie est aussi appliquée à un test de trac¸age par injection d'une solution saline et d'acides réalisé dans un système géothermal en Australie, puis comparée à une inversion time-lapse tridimensionnelle réalisée selon une approche déterministe. L'inversion probabiliste permet de mieux contraindre le panache du traceur salin gr^ace à la grande quantité d'informations a priori incluse dans l'algorithme. Néanmoins, les changements de conductivités nécessaires pour expliquer les changements observés dans les données sont plus grands que ce qu'expliquent notre connaissance actuelle des phénomenès physiques. Ce problème peut être lié à la qualité limitée du modèle de résistivité de base utilisé, indiquant ainsi que des efforts plus grands devront être fournis dans le futur pour obtenir des modèles de base de bonne qualité avant de réaliser des expériences dynamiques. Les études décrites dans cette thèse montrent que les méthodes d'ondes EM planes sont très utiles pour caractériser et suivre les variations temporelles du sous-sol sur de larges échelles. Les présentes approches améliorent l'évaluation des modèles obtenus, autant en termes d'incorporation d'informations a priori, qu'en termes de quantification d'incertitudes a posteriori. De plus, les stratégies développées peuvent être appliquées à d'autres méthodes géophysiques, et offrent une grande flexibilité pour l'incorporation d'informations additionnelles lorsqu'elles sont disponibles. -- The efficient use of geothermal systems, the sequestration of CO2 to mitigate climate change, and the prevention of seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers are only some examples that demonstrate the need for novel technologies to monitor subsurface processes from the surface. A main challenge is to assure optimal performance of such technologies at different temporal and spatial scales. Plane-wave electromagnetic (EM) methods are sensitive to subsurface electrical conductivity and consequently to fluid conductivity, fracture connectivity, temperature, and rock mineralogy. These methods have governing equations that are the same over a large range of frequencies, thus allowing to study in an analogous manner processes on scales ranging from few meters close to the surface down to several hundreds of kilometers depth. Unfortunately, they suffer from a significant resolution loss with depth due to the diffusive nature of the electromagnetic fields. Therefore, estimations of subsurface models that use these methods should incorporate a priori information to better constrain the models, and provide appropriate measures of model uncertainty. During my thesis, I have developed approaches to improve the static and dynamic characterization of the subsurface with plane-wave EM methods. In the first part of this thesis, I present a two-dimensional deterministic approach to perform time-lapse inversion of plane-wave EM data. The strategy is based on the incorporation of prior information into the inversion algorithm regarding the expected temporal changes in electrical conductivity. This is done by incorporating a flexible stochastic regularization and constraints regarding the expected ranges of the changes by using Lagrange multipliers. I use non-l2 norms to penalize the model update in order to obtain sharp transitions between regions that experience temporal changes and regions that do not. I also incorporate a time-lapse differencing strategy to remove systematic errors in the time-lapse inversion. This work presents improvements in the characterization of temporal changes with respect to the classical approach of performing separate inversions and computing differences between the models. In the second part of this thesis, I adopt a Bayesian framework and use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations to quantify model parameter uncertainty in plane-wave EM inversion. For this purpose, I present a two-dimensional pixel-based probabilistic inversion strategy for separate and joint inversions of plane-wave EM and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data. I compare the uncertainties of the model parameters when considering different types of prior information on the model structure and different likelihood functions to describe the data errors. The results indicate that model regularization is necessary when dealing with a large number of model parameters because it helps to accelerate the convergence of the chains and leads to more realistic models. These constraints also lead to smaller uncertainty estimates, which imply posterior distributions that do not include the true underlying model in regions where the method has limited sensitivity. This situation can be improved by combining planewave EM methods with complimentary geophysical methods such as ERT. In addition, I show that an appropriate regularization weight and the standard deviation of the data errors can be retrieved by the MCMC inversion. Finally, I evaluate the possibility of characterizing the three-dimensional distribution of an injected water plume by performing three-dimensional time-lapse MCMC inversion of planewave EM data. Since MCMC inversion involves a significant computational burden in high parameter dimensions, I propose a model reduction strategy where the coefficients of a Legendre moment decomposition of the injected water plume and its location are estimated. For this purpose, a base resistivity model is needed which is obtained prior to the time-lapse experiment. A synthetic test shows that the methodology works well when the base resistivity model is correctly characterized. The methodology is also applied to an injection experiment performed in a geothermal system in Australia, and compared to a three-dimensional time-lapse inversion performed within a deterministic framework. The MCMC inversion better constrains the water plumes due to the larger amount of prior information that is included in the algorithm. The conductivity changes needed to explain the time-lapse data are much larger than what is physically possible based on present day understandings. This issue may be related to the base resistivity model used, therefore indicating that more efforts should be given to obtain high-quality base models prior to dynamic experiments. The studies described herein give clear evidence that plane-wave EM methods are useful to characterize and monitor the subsurface at a wide range of scales. The presented approaches contribute to an improved appraisal of the obtained models, both in terms of the incorporation of prior information in the algorithms and the posterior uncertainty quantification. In addition, the developed strategies can be applied to other geophysical methods, and offer great flexibility to incorporate additional information when available.

Iowa's Leadership in Research and Development, 2010

Pentagon-classified navigation systems are designed and tested. Genetically-superior, drought resistant triple-stacked corn hybrids exponentially improve corn and soybean yields. Scientists discover a simple flower, the marigold, unlocks astonishing potential as a change agent to improve the world’s health. All achieved or discovered in Iowa, the common denominator among all of these extraordinary activities is the intensive research and development efforts involved in bringing them to market. For businesses heavily dependent on research and development, one of their strategic advantages of conducting that world-changing research in Iowa is the state’s Research Activities Credit, commonly referred to as the Research and Development tax credit. Whether a company’s specific strategy is planting a stake into emerging markets, expanding its market leadership position, or paving technological inroads to gain market share, the success of those efforts is largely dependent on the company’s preceding work in research and development. Iowa recognizes how significant these resulting innovations are to long-term business growth and stability. Even though the federal research credits have fluctuated with intermittent expiration dates and reinstatement periods, Iowa has remained consistent in its support for the Research Activities Credit over theyears.

The Impact of Monetary Union on EU-15 Sovereign Debt Yield Spreads

With European Monetary Union (EMU), there was an increase in the adjusted spreads (corrected from the foreign exchange risk) of euro participating countries' sovereign securities over Germany and a decrease in those of non-euro countries. The objective of this paper is to study the reasons for this result, and in particular, whether the change in the price assigned by markets was due to domestic factors such as credit risk and/or market liquidity, or to international risk factors. The empirical evidence suggests that market size scale economies have increased since EMU for all European markets, so the effect of the various risk factors, even though it differs between euro and non-euro countries, is always dependent on the size of the market.

Un modelo de riesgo de crédito basado en opciones compuestas con barrera. Aplicación al mercado continuo español

In this work the valuation methodology of compound option written on a downand-out call option, developed by Ericsson and Reneby (2003), has been applied to deduce a credit risk model. It is supposed that the firm has a debt structure with two maturity dates and that the credit event takes place when the assets firm value falls under a determined level called barrier. An empirical application of the model for 105 firms of Spanish continuous market is carried out. For each one of them its value in the date of analysis, the volatility and the critical value are obtained and from these, the default probability to short and long-term and the implicit probability in the two previous probabilities are deduced. The results are compared with the ones obtained from the Geskemodel (1977).

An investment social network beside the Banco de Barcelona, an unusual case?

[cat] L’extensió de les activitats bancàries al segle XIX va ser liderat per alguns grups socials connectats amb el comerç, que van treure profit de la seva experiència i coneixement per estendre la seva influència al voltant del món del crèdit. A la historiografia espanyola, hi ha un conjunt de treballs que s’han centrat en aquesta gent, però en molts pocs casos s’ha fet una classificació que permeti detectar el conjunt de grups econòmics que han liderat el procés de modernització financera de l’Espanya de mitjans del segle XIX. El principal objectiu del treball és l’anàlisi dels grups socials que van formar el Banco de Barcelona entre 1844 i 1854. Aquesta institució va ser important per a la història financera i bancària d’Espanya per ser pionera en la seva activitat creditícia i d’emissió: a més, la seva experiència va servir com a base en la constitució d’un sistema financer modern a Espanya. En una societat com la catalana de mitjans del segle XIX, la confiança era un factor important per explicar la decisió d’invertir. L’aparició de noves companyies i les seves necessitats d’inversió van transformar el comportaments previs. Quin va ser el comportament dels inversors potencials? Va ser el grup que hi havia al voltant del banc el que va ascendir econòmicament en els anys centrals del segle XIX? La resposta és prou clara, els membres del consell d’administració del Banc de Barcelona formaven un grup apart dins dels grups que sorgeixen a l’economia catalana en el seu conjunt.

Monetary integration and the cost of borrowing

With the beginning of the European Monetary Union (EMU), euro-area sovereign securities¿ adjusted spreads over Germany (corrected from the foreign exchange risk) experienced an increase that caused a lower than expected decline in borrowing costs. The objective of this paper is to study what explains that rising. In particular, if it took place a change in the price assigned by markets to domestic (credit risk and/or market liquidity) or to international risk factors. The empirical evidence supports the idea that a change in the market value of liquidity occurred with the EMU. International and default risk play a smaller role

Policy Addressing Civil Rights/Discrimination Complaints, January 3, 2011

The Iowa Governor’s Office of Drug Control Policy (ODCP) shall comply with all applicable federal and state laws prohibiting discrimination, as well as the State of Iowa’s Equal Opportunity, Affirmative Action and Anti-Discrimination Policy for Executive Branch Employees (Section 2.40 of Iowa Department of Administrative Services Managers and Supervisors Manual). Federal law prohibits discrimination against individuals or groups, either in employment or in the delivery of services or benefits, on the basis of age, race, color, national origin, religion, sex, or disability. State law prohibits discrimination in the areas of employment, housing, credit, public accommodations and education. Under the Iowa Civil Rights Act of 1965, discrimination, or different treatment, is illegal if based on race, color, creed, national origin, religion, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity, pregnancy, physical disability, mental disability, retaliation (because of filing a previous discrimination complaint, participating in an investigation of a discrimination complaint, or having opposed discriminatory conduct), age (in employment and credit), familial status (in housing and credit) or marital status (in credit). State policy requires all employees and applicants for employment in the executive branch be afforded equal access. The intent of this policy is to ensure that employment opportunities, within the executive branch of state government, are accessible to all persons, and that executive branch agencies do not discriminate against any person because of race, creed, color, religion, sex, national origin, age, or physical or mental disability.

Social Investment Policies in Times of Permanent Austerity

The objective of this paper is to identify the political conditions that are most likely to be conducive to the development of social investment policies. It starts from the view put forward by theorists of welfare retrenchment that in the current context of permanent austerity, policy is likely to be dominated by retrenchment and implemented in a way that allows governments to minimise the risk of electoral punishment (blame avoidance). It is argued that this view is inconsistent with developments observed in several European countries, were some welfare state expansion has taken place mostly in the fields of childcare and active labour market policy. An alternative model is put forward, that emphasises the notion of "affordable credit claiming". It is argued that even under strong budgetary pressures, governments maintain a preference for policies that allow them to claim credit for their actions. Since the traditional redistributive policies tend to be off the menu for cost reasons, governments have tended to favour investments in childcare and active labour market policy as credit claiming tools. Policies developed in this way while they have a social investment flavour, tend to be rather limited in the extent to which they genuinely improve prospects of disadvantaged people by investing in their human capital. A more ambitious strategy of social investment sees unlikely to develop on the basis of affordable credit claiming. The paper starts by presenting the theoretical argument, which is then illustrated with examples taken from European countries both in the pre-crisis and in the post-crisis years.