The optimum quantity of money: Theory and evidence

In this paper we propose a simple and general model for computing the Ramsey optimal inflation tax, which includes several models from the previous literature as special cases. We show that it cannot be claimed that the Friedman rule is always optimal (or always non--optimal) on theoretical grounds. The Friedman rule is optimal or not, depending on conditions related to the shape of various relevant functions. One contribution of this paper is to relate these conditions to {\it measurable} variables such as the interest rate or the consumption elasticity of money demand. We find that it tends to be optimal to tax money when there are economies of scale in the demand for money (the scale elasticity is smaller than one) and/or when money is required for the payment of consumption or wage taxes. We find that it tends to be optimal to tax money more heavily when the interest elasticity of money demand is small. We present empirical evidence on the parameters that determine the optimal inflation tax. Calibrating the model to a variety of empirical studies yields a optimal nominal interest rate of less than 1\%/year, although that finding is sensitive to the calibration.

Financiación capitativa, articulación entre niveles asistenciales y descentralización de las organizaciones sanitarias

Public organisations are subjected to weak incentivesfor competition. Therefore, institutional Darwinismcannot apply. Regulation and performance monitoring isrequired to protect the public interest. This isparticularly the case of organisations in the healthcare arena, since strong incentives may risk the wholesupply of public health services. Regarding to the pathdependence of the Spanish public health institutionswith respect to the international experience and theobserved health technological changes, this paper triesto ground some theoretical bases for the organisationalchange in our health system. We do this by building ourargument from the very basic public goal: the improvementof the health status of the Spanish population. Thisrequires a better integration of health care services.To this regard, capitation in finance shows somecomparative advantages: it takes an integral view forthe care of the population, it allows for a betterdecentralisation ('deconcentration') of risks to healthproviders and favours managed care under a globalperspective, replacing partial payment to differentproviders. However, the paper shows some potentiallimitations for this purpose and the need of a gradualstrategy for its implementation.

On the sources of business cycles in the G-7

This paper examines sources of cyclical movements in output, inflation and the term structure of interest rates. It employs a novel identification approach which uses the sign of the cross correlation function in response to shocks to catalog orthogonal disturbances. We find that demand shocks are the dominant source output, inflation and term structure fluctuations in six of the G-7 countries. Within the class of demand disturbances, nominal shocks are dominant, but their importance declined after 1982. Furthermore, there are no significant differences in the proportion of term structure variability explained by different structural sources at different horizons.

Disability, capacity for work and the business cycle: An international perspective

An important policy issue in recent years concerns the number of people claimingdisability benefits for reasons of incapacity for work. We distinguish between workdisability , which may have its roots in economic and social circumstances, and healthdisability which arises from clear diagnosed medical conditions. Although there is a linkbetween work and health disability, economic conditions, and in particular the businesscycle and variations in the risk of unemployment over time and across localities, mayplay an important part in explaining both the stock of disability benefit claimants andinflows to and outflow from that stock. We employ a variety of cross?country andcountry?specific household panel data sets, as well as administrative data, to testwhether disability benefit claims rise when unemployment is higher, and also toinvestigate the impact of unemployment rates on flows on and off the benefit rolls. Wefind strong evidence that local variations in unemployment have an importantexplanatory role for disability benefit receipt, with higher total enrolments, loweroutflows from rolls and, often, higher inflows into disability rolls in regions and periodsof above?average unemployment. Although general subjective measures of selfreporteddisability and longstanding illness are also positively associated withunemployment rates, inclusion of self?reported health measures does not eliminate thestatistical relationship between unemployment rates and disability benefit receipt;indeed including general measures of health often strengthens that underlyingrelationship. Intriguingly, we also find some evidence from the United Kingdom and theUnited States that the prevalence of self?reported objective specific indicators ofdisability are often pro?cyclical that is, the incidence of specific forms of disability arepro?cyclical whereas claims for disability benefits given specific health conditions arecounter?cyclical. Overall, the analysis suggests that, for a range of countries and datasets, levels of claims for disability benefits are not simply related to changes in theincidence of health disability in the population and are strongly influenced by prevailingeconomic conditions. We discuss the policy implications of these various findings.

Inequality over the business cycle: Estimating income risk using micro-data on consumption

We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income, to evaluate the nature of increased income inequality in the 1980s and 90s. We decompose unexpected changes in family income into transitory and permanent, and idiosyncratic and aggregate components, and estimate the contribution of each component to total inequality. The model we use is a linearized incomplete markets model, enriched to incorporate risk-sharing while maintaining tractability. Our estimates suggest that taking risk sharing into account is important for the model fit; that the increase in inequality in the 1980s was mainly permanent; and that inequality is driven almost entirely by idiosyncratic income risk. In addition we find no evidence for cyclical behavior of consumption risk, casting doubt on Constantinides and Duffie s (1995) explanation for the equity premium puzzle.

Leasing como alternativa de financiamento de empresas em Cabo Verde - Análise prática de efeitos económicos, financeiros e contabilísticos

Criar mecanismos que produzam e dinamizem o alcance de novos produtos financeiros surge como uma condição necessária para estimular o investimento. Além das condições intrínsecas próprias de uma economia o financiamento é quase que a espinha dorsal para favorecer o desenvolvimento e crescimento económicos. Diversificar as fontes de financiamento para que estas se adaptem à realidade económico-financeira das empresas é essencial, pois não só possibilita o crescimento das empresas nacionais, mas também cria um ambiente de negócios propício ao investimento externo. Convicto da relevância, o presente trabalho tem como escopo uma temática que a nível nacional pouco se tem abordado: trata-se locação financeira que na gíria financeira é entendida por leasing - que de forma sintética se traduz num contrato pelo qual uma das partes concede à outra o gozo temporário de uma coisa contra uma retribuição, e que posteriormente pode ser adquirida, num prazo convencionado, mediante pagamento de um preço determinado ou determinável, nos termos do próprio contrato. O enfoque está em estudar a relevância assumida pelo leasing enquanto fonte de financiamento de médio e longo prazo, no contexto cabo-verdiano, comparativamente à outra fonte – empréstimo bancário de médio e longo prazo. O trabalho reveste-se de uma componente teórica e uma prática. Na componente teórica trata-se do tema no geral, abrangendo uma resenha histórica, o enquadramento legal, das sociedades de locação financeira e dos contratos de locação financeira, tratamento contabilístico, as características específicas que se associam ao tema em apreço e igualmente uma breve análise fiscal. A parte prática desenvolve uma análise comparativa do leasing com o empréstimo bancário de médio e longo prazo onde foram retiradas as conclusões chegadas com o estudo. Resumidamente, pode-se que o leasing é certamente uma das melhores opções de financiamento não só para empresas como igualmente para clientes particulares, sendo, uma opção rápida, simples e vantajosa para o cliente bancário, especialmente se o facto de a propriedade do bem não pertencer ao titular do leasing não causar qualquer incómodo. Create mechanisms that produce and streamline the range of new financial products emerges as a necessary condition to stimulate investment. In addition to its own intrinsic conditions of an economy funding is almost the backbone to promote economic development and growth. Diversify the sources of funding for these adapt to the reality of the economic-financial firms is essential because not only enables the growth of domestic companies, but also creates a business environment conducive to foreign investment. Convinced of the relevance, this work is scoped to a theme that nationally there has been little discussed: it is leasing in slang that is understood by financial leasing - which synthetically translates into a contract whereby one party grants to the another the temporary enjoyment of a thing against retribution, and that can later be acquired within the agreed upon payment of a specified or ascertainable under the contract. The focus is on studying the relevance assumed by leasing as a source of financing medium and long term, the Cape Verdean context, compared to other sources - bank loan of medium and long term. The work has a theoretical and a practical component. In the theoretical part it is the theme in general, covering a historical perspective, the legal framework, the leasing companies and financial leasing contracts, accounting treatment, specific characteristics that are associated to the topic at hand and equally a brief fiscal analysis. The practical part develops a comparative analysis of leasing with bank loan of medium and long term which were withdrawn with the conclusions reached with the study. Briefly, it may be that leasing is certainly one of the best financing options not only by companies as also by private customers, being a fast, simple and profitable for the bank customer, especially if the fact that the ownership of the property does not belong the holder of the lease does not cause any discomfort.

Financing constraints, irreversibility and investment dynamics

We develop a model of an industry with many heterogeneous firms that face both financingconstraints and irreversibility constraints. The financing constraint implies that firmscannot borrow unless the debt is secured by collateral; the irreversibility constraint thatthey can only sell their fixed capital by selling their business. We use this model to examinethe cyclical behavior of aggregate fixed investment, variable capital investment, and outputin the presence of persistent idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. Our model yields threemain results. First, the effect of the irreversibility constraint on fixed capital investmentis reinforced by the financing constraint. Second, the effect of the financing constraint onvariable capital investment is reinforced by the irreversibility constraint. Finally, the interactionbetween the two constraints is key for explaining why input inventories and materialdeliveries of US manufacturing firms are so volatile and procyclical, and also why they arehighly asymmetrical over the business cycle.

Population based resource allocation: The use of hybrid risk adjustment

The emphasis on integrated care implies new incentives that promote coordinationbetween levels of care. Considering a population as a whole, the resource allocation systemhas to adapt to this environment. This research is aimed to design a model that allows formorbidity related prospective and concurrent capitation payment. The model can be applied inpublicly funded health systems and managed competition settings.Methods: We analyze the application of hybrid risk adjustment versus either prospective orconcurrent risk adjustment formulae in the context of funding total health expenditures for thepopulation of an integrated healthcare delivery organization in Catalonia during years 2004 and2005.Results: The hybrid model reimburses integrated care organizations avoiding excessive risktransfer and maximizing incentives for efficiency in the provision. At the same time, it eliminatesincentives for risk selection for a specific set of high risk individuals through the use ofconcurrent reimbursement in order to assure a proper classification of patients.Conclusion: Prospective Risk Adjustment is used to transfer the financial risk to the healthprovider and therefore provide incentives for efficiency. Within the context of a National HealthSystem, such transfer of financial risk is illusory, and the government has to cover the deficits.Hybrid risk adjustment is useful to provide the right combination of incentive for efficiency andappropriate level of risk transfer for integrated care organizations.

Circulation of private notes during a currency shortage

This paper provides a search theoretical model that captures two phenomena that have characterized several episodes of monetary history: currency shortages and the circulation of privately issued notes. As usual in these models, the media of exchange are determined as part of the equilibrium. We characterize all the different equilibria and specify the conditions under which there is a currency shortage and/or privately issued notes are used as means of payment. There is multiplicity of equilibria for the entire parameter space, but there always exist an equilibrium in which notes circulate, either alone or together with coins. Hence, credit is a self-fulfilling phenomenon that depends on the beliefs of agents about the acceptability and future repayment of notes. The degree of circulation of coins depends on two crucial parameters, the intrinsic utility of holding coins and the extent with which it is possible to find exchange opportunities in the market.

Japan's lost decade: Does money have a role?

We study the contribution of the stock of money to the macroeconomic outcomesof the 1990s in Japan using a small scale structural model. Likelihood-basedestimates of the parameters are provided and time stabilities of the structural relationshipsanalyzed. Real balances are statistically important for output and inflationfluctuations and their role has changed over time. Models which give moneyno role give a distorted representation of the sources of cyclical fluctuations. Thesevere stagnation and the long deflation are driven by different causes.

Are these classical business cycles?

The aim of this paper is to test formally the classical business cyclehypothesis, using data from industrialized countries for the timeperiod since 1960. The hypothesis is characterized by the view that the cyclical structure in GDP is concentrated in the investment series: fixed investment has typically a long cycle, while the cycle in inventory investment is shorter. To check the robustness of our results, we subject the data for 15 OECD countries to a variety of detrending techniques. While the hypothesis is not confirmed uniformly for all countries, there is a considerably high number for which the data display the predicted pattern. None of the countries shows a pattern which can be interpreted as a clear rejection of the classical hypothesis.

Endogenous policy leads to inefficient risk sharing

We analyze risk sharing and fiscal spending in a two-region model withcomplete markets. Fiscal policy determines tax rates for each state ofnature. When fiscal policy is decentralized, it can be used to affect prices of securities. To manipulate prices to their beneffit, regionschoose pro-cyclical fiscal spending. This leads to incomplete risk sharing,despite the existence of complete markets and the absence of aggregaterisk. When a fiscal union centralizes fiscal policy, securities pricescan no longer be manipulated and complete risk sharing ensues. If regionsare homogeneous, median income residents of both regions prefer the fiscalunion. If they are heterogeneous, the median resident of the rich regionprefers the decentralized setting.

Stabilization versus insurance: Welfare effects of procyclical taxation under incomplete markets

We construct and calibrate a general equilibrium business cycle model with unemployment and precautionary saving. We compute the cost of business cycles and locate the optimum in a set of simple cyclical fiscal policies. Our economy exhibits productivity shocks, giving firms an incentive to hire more when productivity is high. However, business cycles make workers' income riskier, both by increasing the unconditional probability of unusuallylong unemployment spells, and by making wages more variable, and therefore they decrease social welfare by around one-fourth or one-third of 1% of consumption. Optimal fiscal policy offsets the cycle, holding unemployment benefits constant but varying the tax rate procyclically to smooth hiring. By running a deficit of 4% to 5% of output in recessions, the government eliminates half the variation in the unemployment rate, most of the variation in workers'aggregate consumption, and most of the welfare cost of business cycles.

Dicarboxylic amino acids and glycine-betaine regulate chaperone-mediated protein-disaggregation under stress.

Active protein-disaggregation by a chaperone network composed of ClpB and DnaK + DnaJ + GrpE is essential for the recovery of stress-induced protein aggregates in vitro and in Escherichia coli cells. K-glutamate and glycine-betaine (betaine) naturally accumulate in salt-stressed cells. In addition to providing thermo-protection to native proteins, we found that these osmolytes can strongly and specifically activate ClpB, resulting in an increased efficiency of chaperone-mediated protein disaggregation. Moreover, factors that inhibited the chaperone network by impairing the stability of the ClpB oligomer, such as natural polyamines, dilution, or high salt, were efficiently counteracted by K-glutamate or betaine. The combined protective, counter-negative and net activatory effects of K-glutamate and betaine, allowed protein disaggregation and refolding under heat-shock temperatures that otherwise cause protein aggregation in vitro and in the cell. Mesophilic organisms may thus benefit from a thermotolerant osmolyte-activated chaperone mechanism that can actively rescue protein aggregates, correctly refold and maintain them in a native state under heat-shock conditions.

Systemic risk, interbank relations and liquidity provision by the Central Bank

We model systemic risk in an interbank market. Banks face liquidityneeds as consumers are uncertain about where they need to consume. Interbank credit lines allow to cope with these liquidity shocks while reducing the cost of maintaining reserves. However, the interbank market exposes the system to a coordination failure(gridlock equilibrium) even if all banks are solvent. When one bankis insolvent, the stability of the banking system is affected in various ways depending on the patterns of payments across locations. We investigate the ability of the banking industry to withstand the insolvency of one bank and whether the closure ofone bank generates a chain reaction on the rest of the system. Weanalyze the coordinating role of the Central Bank in preventing payments systemic repercussions and we examine the justification ofthe Too-big-to-fail-policy.