Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Control of Aedes vectors of dengue in three provinces of Vietnam by use of Mesocyclops (Copepoda) and community-based methods validated by entomologic, clinical, and serological surveillance

We describe remarkable success in controlling dengue vectors, Aedes aegypti (L.) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse), in 6 communes with 11,675 households and 49,647 people in the northern provinces of Haiphong, Hung Yen, and Nam Dinh in Vietnam. The communes were selected for high-frequency use of large outdoor concrete tanks and wells. These were found to be the source of 49.6-98.4% of Ae. aegypti larvae, which were amenable to treatment with local Mesocyclops, mainly M. woutersi Van der Velde, M. aspericornis (Daday) and M. thermocyclopoides Harada. Knowledge, attitude, and practice surveys were performed to determine whether the communities viewed dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever as a serious health threat; to determine their knowledge of the etiology, attitudes, and practices regarding control methods including Mesocyclops; and to determine their receptivity to various information methods. On the basis of the knowledge, attitude, and practice data, the community-based dengue control program comprised a system of local leaders, health volunteer teachers, and schoolchildren, supported by health professionals. Recycling of discards for economic gain was enhanced, where appropriate, and this, plus 37 clean-up campaigns, removed small containers unsuitable for Mesocyclops treatment. A previously successful eradication at Phan Boi village (Hung Yen province) was extended to 7 other villages forming Di Su commune (1,750 households) in the current study. Complete control was also achieved in Nghia Hiep (Hung Yen province) and in Xuan Phong (Nam Dinh province); control efficacy was greater than or equal to 99.7% in the other 3 communes (Lac Vien in Haiphong, Nghia Dong, and Xuan Kien in Nam Dinh). Although tanks and wells were the key container types of Ae. aegypti productivity, discarded materials were the source of 51% of the standing crop of Ae. albopictus. Aedes albopictus larvae were eliminated from the 3 Nam Dinh communes, and 86-98% control was achieved in the other 3 communes. Variable dengue attack rates made the clinical and serological comparison of control and untreated communes problematic, but these data indicate that clinical surveillance by itself is inadequate to monitor dengue transmission.

An electromyographic analysis of the deep cervical flexor muscles in performance of craniocervical flexion

Background and Purpose. This study evaluated an electromyographic technique for the measurement of muscle activity of the deep cervical flexor (DCF) muscles. Electromyographic signals were detected from the DCF, sternocleidomastoid (SCM), and anterior scalene (AS) muscles during performance of the craniocervical flexion (CCF) test, which involves performing 5 stages of increasing craniocervical flexion range of motion-the anatomical action of the DCF muscles. Subjects. Ten volunteers without known pathology or impairment participated in this study. Methods. Root-mean-square (RMS) values were calculated for the DCF, SCM, and AS muscles during performance of the CCF test. Myoelectric signals were recorded from the DCF muscles using bipolar electrodes placed over the posterior oropharyngeal wall. Reliability estimates of normalized RMS values were obtained by evaluating intraclass correlation coefficients and the normalized standard error of the mean (SEM). Results. A linear relationship was evident between the amplitude of DCF muscle activity and the incremental stages of the CCF test (F=239.04, df=36, P<.0001). Normalized SEMs in the range 6.7% to 10.3% were obtained for the normalized RMS values for the DCF muscles, providing evidence of reliability for these variables. Discussion and Conclusion. This approach for obtaining a direct measure of the DCF muscles, which differs from those previously used, may be useful for the examination of these muscles in future electromyographic applications.

Rock fracture mean trace length estimation and confidence interval calculation using maximum likelihood methods

There has been a resurgence of interest in the mean trace length estimator of Pahl for window sampling of traces. The estimator has been dealt with by Mauldon and Zhang and Einstein in recent publications. The estimator is a very useful one in that it is non-parametric. However, despite some discussion regarding the statistical distribution of the estimator, none of the recent works or the original work by Pahl provide a rigorous basis for the determination a confidence interval for the estimator or a confidence region for the estimator and the corresponding estimator of trace spatial intensity in the sampling window. This paper shows, by consideration of a simplified version of the problem but without loss of generality, that the estimator is in fact the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and that it can be considered essentially unbiased. As the MLE, it possesses the least variance of all estimators and confidence intervals or regions should therefore be available through application of classical ML theory. It is shown that valid confidence intervals can in fact be determined. The results of the work and the calculations of the confidence intervals are illustrated by example. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stereological and other methods applied to rock joint size estimation - Does Crofton's theorem apply?

A number of authors concerned with the analysis of rock jointing have used the idea that the joint areal or diametral distribution can be linked to the trace length distribution through a theorem attributed to Crofton. This brief paper seeks to demonstrate why Crofton's theorem need not be used to link moments of the trace length distribution captured by scan line or areal mapping to the moments of the diametral distribution of joints represented as disks and that it is incorrect to do so. The valid relationships for areal or scan line mapping between all the moments of the trace length distribution and those of the joint size distribution for joints modeled as disks are recalled and compared with those that might be applied were Crofton's theorem assumed to apply. For areal mapping, the relationship is fortuitously correct but incorrect for scan line mapping.

Selecting methods to solve multi-well master equations

There are several competing methods commonly used to solve energy grained master equations describing gas-phase reactive systems. When it comes to selecting an appropriate method for any particular problem, there is little guidance in the literature. In this paper we directly compare several variants of spectral and numerical integration methods from the point of view of computer time required to calculate the solution and the range of temperature and pressure conditions under which the methods are successful. The test case used in the comparison is an important reaction in combustion chemistry and incorporates reversible and irreversible bimolecular reaction steps as well as isomerizations between multiple unimolecular species. While the numerical integration of the ODE with a stiff ODE integrator is not the fastest method overall, it is the fastest method applicable to all conditions.

Measured and predicted total body water in children with myelomeningocele

Objective: Children with myelomeningocele (MMC) have an altered body composition and an atypical distribution of total body water (TBW). The aim of the present study was to determine the accuracy of current predictive equations, based on bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA), in determining TBW when compared with measured TBW using deuterium dilution. Methods: Fourteen children with MMC were measured for whole body BIA and TBW (using deuterium dilution and the Plateau method). Total body water was predicted using equations based on the resistance and characteristic frequency from BIA measurements and heights of subjects. Results: The mean measured TBW was 15.46 +/- 8.28 L and the mean predictions for TBW using equations based on the resistance and characteristic frequency from BIA measurements and heights of subjects were 18.29 +/- 8.41 L, 17.72 +/- 11.42 L and 12.51 +/- 7.59 L, respectively. The best correlation was found using characteristic frequency. The limits of agreement between measured and predicted TBW values using Bland-Altman analysis were large. Conclusions: The present study suggests that the prediction of TBW in children with MMC can be made accurately using the equation of Cornish et al . based on BIA measurements of characteristic frequency.

A comparison of two methods for the calculation of accumulated oxygen deficit

The aim of this study was to compare accumulated oxygen deficit data derived using two different exercise protocols with the aim of producing a less time-consuming test specifically for use with athletes. Six road and four track male endurance cyclists performed two series of cycle ergometer tests. The first series involved five 10 min sub-maximal cycle exercise bouts, a (V) over dotO(2peak) test and a 115% (V) over dotO(2peak) test. Data from these tests were used to estimate the accumulated oxygen deficit according to the calculations of Medbo et al. (1988). In the second series of tests, participants performed a 15 min incremental cycle ergometer test followed, 2 min later, by a 2 min variable resistance test in which they completed as much work as possible while pedalling at a constant rate. Analysis revealed that the accumulated oxygen deficit calculated from the first series of tests was higher (P< 0.02) than that calculated from the second series: 52.3 +/- 11.7 and 43.9 +/- 6.4 ml . kg(-1), respectively (mean +/- s). Other significant differences between the two protocols were observed for (V) over dot O-2peak, total work and maximal heart rate; all were higher during the modified protocol (P

Does participation in a pain course based on the international association for the study of pain's curricula guidelines change student knowledge about pain?

The People in Pain course was set up as a joint initiative of the Departments of Occupational Therapy and Physiotherapy within the School of Health and Rehabilitation Sciences at The University of Queensland. It was instigated in response to the publication of Pain Curricula for Occupational Therapy and Physiotherapy by the International Association for the Study of Pain (IASP) in 1994 (1). The first year it was offered, the "People in Pain" course comprised 14 h of lecture content. It was then expanded to encompass 28 h of lectures and seminar involvement. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of participation in a university pain course that meets the IASP pain curricula guidelines to increase health professional students' knowledge about pain. METHODS: Students who participated in the People in Pain course over the first three years were invited to complete the Revised Pain Knowledge and Attitudes Questionnaire (R-PKAQ) pre- and postcourse. Data obtained from 22 students in the short course formed a pilot project, and data from 22 students in the longer version of the course were used in the present study. RESULTS: Examination of the correlation matrix indicated substantial correlations between all R-PKAQ subscales except physiological basis of pain and pharmacological management of pain. In both the pilot project during the first year of the course and the expanded course in the following two years, significant improvement was found in the students' knowledge on five of the six subscales of the R-PKAQ: physiological basis of pain, psychological factors of pain perception, assessment and measurement of pain, cognitive-behavioural methods of pain relief, and pharmacological management of pain. Improvements in the developmental aspects of pain perception subscale failed to reach significance. CONCLUSIONS: An integrated pain course developed according to the pain curriculum guidelines developed by the IASP resulted in increased student knowledge regardless of the length of the program attended.

Reliability of electromyographic and torque measures during isometric axial rotation exertions of the trunk

Objective: The aim of the present study was to investigate the between-days reliability of electromyographic (EMG) measurement of 6 bilateral trunk muscles and also the torque output in 3 planes during isometric right and left axial rotation at different exertion levels. Methods: Ten healthy subjects performed isometric right and left axial rotation at 100, 70, 50 and 30% maximum voluntary contractions in two testing sessions at least 7 days apart. EMG amplitude and frequency analyses of the recorded surface EMG signals were performed for rectus abdominis, external oblique, internal oblique, latissimus dorsi, iliocostalis lumborum and multifidus bilaterally. The primary torque in the transverse plane and the coupling torques in sagittal and coronal planes were measured. Results: For both EMG amplitude and frequency values, good (intraclass correlation coefficient, ICC = 0.75-0.89) to excellent (ICC greater than or equal to 0.90) reliability was found in the 6 trunk muscles at different exertion levels during axial rotation. The reliability of both maximal isometric axial rotation torque and coupling torques in sagittal and coronal planes were found to be excellent (ICC greater than or equal to 0.93). Conclusions: Good to excellent reliability of EMG measures of trunk muscles and torque measurements during isometric axial rotation was demonstrated. This provides further confidence of using EMG and triaxial torque assessment as outcome measures in rehabilitation and in the evaluation of the human performance in the work place. (C) 2003 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Usefulness of B-type natriuretic peptide in hypertensive patients with exertional dyspnea and normal left ventricular ejection fraction and correlation with new echocardiographic indexes of systolic and diastolic function

B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels increase in systolic heart failure (HF). However, the value of BNP in hypertensive patients with suspected diastolic HF (symptoms suggestive of HF but normal ejection fraction) and its relation to myocardial function in these patients is unclear. We prospectively studied 72 ambulatory hypertensive subjects (40 women, mean age 58 +/- 8 years) with exertional dyspnea and ejection fraction greater than or equal to50%. Diastolic function was evaluated with transmitral and pulmonary venous Doppler, mitral annular velocities (pulsed-wave tissue Doppler), and flow propagation velocity (color M-mode). Systolic function was assessed with strain and strain rate derived from color tissue Doppler imaging. BNP was related to myocardial function and the presence or absence of global diastolic dysfunction. By conventional Doppler criteria, 34 patients had normal left ventricular diastolic function and 38 had isolated diastolic dysfunction. BNP values were higher in patients with diastolic dysfunction (46 +/- 48 vs 20 +/- 20 pg/ml, p = 0.004) and were related independently to blood pressure, systolic strain rate, left atrial function (p < 0.01 for all), and age (p = 0.015). Patients with diastolic dysfunction and pseudonormal filling had higher BNP levels compared with impaired relaxation (89 +/- 47 vs 35 +/- 42 pg/ml, p = 0.001). However, 79% of patients with diastolic dysfunction had BNP levels within the normal range. We conclude that in ambulatory hypertensive patients with symptoms suggestive of mild HF and normal ejection fraction, BNP is related to atrial and ventricular systolic parameters, blood pressure, and age. Although elevated in the presence of diastolic dysfunction, the BNP level mostly is in the normal range and, therefore, has limited diagnostic value in stable patients with suspected diastolic HF. (C) 2003 by Excerpta Medica, Inc.

Correlação entre a depuração plasmática de creatinina utilizando urina coletada durante 24 horas e 12 horas

Introdução: A concentração da creatinina no plasma é usada para avaliar a função renal, mas a depuração da creatinina plasmática (DCP) constitui método mais sensível para essa finalidade. Objetivo: Correlacionar a DCP em coleta urinária de 12 horas noturna com a de 24 horas. Métodos: Noventa e cinco voluntários (34-64 anos) coletaram urina durante 24 horas em dois frascos: diurno (das 7h às 19h) e noturno (das 19h às 7h do dia seguinte). A coleta de sangue se deu em jejum para medidas bioquímicas. A correlação entre as variáveis foi feita pelo teste Pearson (r) e a concordância de medidas, pelo teste de Bland-Altman. Resultados: Urinas de quatro indivíduos foram recusadas por erro de coleta. Na amostra final (n = 91; 42 homens), havia 23 hipertensos e cinco diabéticos. A DCP (mL/min/1,73 m2) foi menor no período noturno em mulheres (77,8 ± 22,7 versus 88,4 ± 23,6; p < 0,05) e similar em homens (91,2 ± 22,9 versus 97,3 ± 30,9; p > 0,05). As correlações entre a DCP na urina de 12 horas noturna ou diurna e a de 24 horas foram fortes (r = 0,85 e 0,83, respectivamente). Em 85 e 83 dos 91 indivíduos, a medida da DCP noturna e diurna, respectivamente, foi concordante com a de 24 horas. Conclusão: A urina de 12 horas, sobretudo quando coletada à noite, fornece valores de DCP similares àqueles obtidos em coleta de 24 horas. Como essa coleta é mais fácil de ser feita em pacientes ambulatoriais à noite, esse período deveria ser preferido para a medida da filtração glomerular.