Power-law behaviour, heterogeneity, and trend chasing

Long-range dependence in volatility is one of the most prominent examples in financial market research involving universal power laws. Its characterization has recently spurred attempts to provide some explanations of the underlying mechanism. This paper contributes to this recent line of research by analyzing a simple market fraction asset pricing model with two types of traders---fundamentalists who trade on the price deviation from estimated fundamental value and trend followers whose conditional mean and variance of the trend are updated through a geometric learning process. Our analysis shows that agent heterogeneity, risk-adjusted trend chasing through the geometric learning process, and the interplay of noisy fundamental and demand processes and the underlying deterministic dynamics can be the source of power-law distributed fluctuations. In particular, the noisy demand plays an important role in the generation of insignificant autocorrelations (ACs) on returns, while the significant decaying AC patterns of the absolute returns and squared returns are more influenced by the noisy fundamental process. A statistical analysis based on Monte Carlo simulations is conducted to characterize the decay rate. Realistic estimates of the power-law decay indices and the (FI)GARCH parameters are presented.

Heterogeneity, convergence, and autocorrelations

This paper is a contribution to the literature on the explanatory power and calibration of heterogeneous asset pricing models. We set out a new stochastic market-fraction asset pricing model of fundamentalists and trend followers under a market maker. Our model explains key features of financial market behaviour such as market dominance, convergence to the fundamental price and under- and over-reaction. We use the dynamics of the underlying deterministic system to characterize these features and statistical properties, including convergence of the limiting distribution and autocorrelation structure. We confirm these properties using Monte Carlo simulations.

'Surfacing' Micropolitics as a Potential Management Change Frame

This paper considers the findings of a small-scale survey undertaken in a university department. Against a background of massification and commodification, the the increased level of responsibility and accountability has intensified political activity in general but at the micro level in particular. The conclusions of this research demonstrate that staff perceived power in the form of workload, appointment's and promotions were all contingent on the micro politics within the department and the affiliation to senior staff.

El uso de la musicoterapia para la mejora de la comunicación de niños con Trastorno del Espectro Autista en Aulas Abiertas Especializadas

Los beneficios que aporta la musicoterapia en alumnos con Trastorno del Espectro Autista, han sido demostrados profusamente por los distintos autores, si bien carecemos de literatura suficiente sobre su utilización en las Aulas Abiertas Especializadas en colegios ordinarios (Aulas TEA). En este sentido, el objetivo del trabajo, ha consistido en analizar qué mejoras aporta la musicoterapia al desarrollo de la comunicación en los alumnos con Trastorno del Espectro Autista dentro de las Aulas Abiertas de los CEIPs de Castilla-La Mancha y la Comunidad Autónoma de Madrid. Para ello, se ha realizado una amplia revisión documental de fuentes de referencia y se ha entrevistado a los docentes responsables de las Aulas Abiertas Especializadas que utilizan actividades de musicoterapia como recurso en el aula. Se concluye el artículo manifestando, en primer lugar, la escasa integración de la musicoterapia en las aulas TEA (menos del 20% de los centros). En aquellas aulas que sí se programa con actividades de musicoterapia, los beneficios que ésta aporta se ven reflejados en un incremento claro de la intención comunicativa en los alumnos. Además, a la hora de planificar las actividades se tiene muy en cuenta conocer las preferencias y la historia musical del niño. No obstante, existen factores que impiden el aprovechamiento total de las posibilidades terapéuticas de la musicoterapia debido, especialmente a: a) una escasa formación del profesorado y b) un espacio inadecuado para poner en práctica una sesión de musicoterapia.

An architecture for agent-enhanced network service provisioning through SLA negotiation

This paper focuses on two main areas. We first investigate various aspects of subscription and session Service Level Agreement (SLA) issues such as negotiating and setting up network services with Quality of Service (QoS) and pricing preferences. We then introduce an agent-enhanced service architecture that facilitates these services. A prototype system consisting of real-time agents that represent various network stakeholders was developed. A novel approach is presented where the agent system is allowed to communicate with a simulated network. This allows functional and dynamic behaviour of the network to be investigated under various agent-supported scenarios. This paper also highlights the effects of SLA negotiation and dynamic pricing in a competitive multi-operator networks environment.

Neural compensation for compliant loads during rhythmic movement

An experiment was performed to characterise the movement kinematics and the electromyogram (EMG) during rhythmic voluntary flexion and extension of the wrist against different compliant (elastic-viscous-inertial) loads. Three levels of each type of load, and an unloaded condition, were employed. The movements were paced at a frequency of I Hz by an auditory metronome, and visual feedback of wrist displacement in relation to a target amplitude of 100degrees was provided. Electro-myographic recordings were obtained from flexor carpi radialis (FCR) and extensor carpi radialis brevis (ECR). The movement profiles generated in the ten experimental conditions were indistinguishable, indicating that the CNS was able to compensate completely for the imposed changes in the task dynamics. When the level of viscous load was elevated, this compensation took the form of an increase in the rate of initial rise of the flexor and the extensor EMG burst. In response to increases in inertial load, the flexor and extensor EMG bursts commenced and terminated earlier in the movement cycle, and tended to be of greater duration. When the movements were performed in opposition to an elastic load, both the onset and offset of EMG activity occurred later than in the unloaded condition. There was also a net reduction in extensor burst duration with increases in elastic load, and an increase in the rate of initial rise of the extensor burst. Less pronounced alterations in the rate of initial rise of the flexor EMG burst were also observed. In all instances, increases in the magnitude of the external load led to elevations in the overall level of muscle activation. These data reveal that the elements of the central command that are modified in response to the imposition of a compliant load are contingent, not only upon the magnitude, but also upon the character of the load.

'Foreign' Terror? London Bombings, Resistance and the Failing State

The British government's response to the London bombings sought to make the terror of that day foreign, even though it appeared largely domestic. This helped construct it as unusual, contingent, part of the uncontrollable ‘otherness’ of the ‘foreign’. However, it also drew the response into the arena of British foreign policy, where the ‘failing state’ has been the dominant conceptualisation of insecurity and terrorism, especially since September 11th. When the bombings are examined through the ‘failing state’ disturbing and important problems are uncovered. Primarily, the ‘failing state’ discourse deconstructs under the influence of the terrorism in London, revealing that Britain itself is a ‘failing state’ by its own description and producing a generalisation of state ‘failure’. It thereby reveals several possible sites for responding to and resisting the government's representation.

Can Civil Society Succeed Where Elites Have Failed in the War on Sectarianism? Towards an infinitely demanding politics for the North

Caught between the well-armed imaginations of paramilitary organisations competing for the hearts and minds of a divided population, and state engineering of a liberal peace, civil society's impact on Northern Ireland's identity politics was limited during the thirty-year conflict. Specifically, the community and voluntary sector itself has tended to replicate as much as it challenged patterns of segregation in many of its own structures. With plans set out in the Northern Ireland Executive's Programme for Government (2008-11) to engage civil society in opening a new era of ‘good relations’ work to counter sectarianism and racism, civil society organisations will face a complex terrain, facing scepticism about their contribution to peace-making before the Good Friday Agreement, and working in a post-Agreement environment marked by continuing elite and communal antagonism demonstrated by the crisis at the turn of 2009 over devolution of justice and policing powers to the Northern Ireland Executive. A significant aspect of the resolution was a belated agreement by Sinn Fein and the DUP on a new community relation strategy, Cohesion, Sharing and Integration. This article suggests that civil society has a significant role to play in encouraging communities to confront the contradictions and tensions that continue to haunt the political architects of the Good Friday Agreement by affirming a radical and contingent vision of democracy as democratisation at a distance from the identity-saturated politics of the state-region of Northern Ireland. It draws on the work of Simon Critchley, Emmanuel Levinas and Wendy Brown, to offer an approach to identity politics in post-conflict Northern Ireland, focusing on the future orientation of civil society.

Antecedents and Consequences of Social Identity Complexity: Intergroup Contact, Distinctiveness Threat, and Outgroup Attitudes

Social identity complexity defines people's more or less complex cognitive representations of the interrelationships among their multiple ingroup identities. Being high in complexity is contingent on situational, cognitive, or motivational factors, and has positive consequences for intergroup relations. Two survey studies conducted in Northern Ireland examined the extent to which intergroup contact and distinctiveness threat act as antecedents, and outgroup attitudes as consequences, of social identity complexity. In both studies, contact was positively, and distinctiveness threat negatively, associated with complex multiple ingroup perceptions, whereas respondents with more complex identity structures also reported more favorable outgroup attitudes. Social identity complexity also mediated the effects of contact and distinctiveness threat on attitudes. This research highlights that the extent to which individuals perceive their multiple ingroups in more or less complex and differentiated ways is of central importance to understanding intergroup phenomena.

The pitfall with PIT tags: Marking freshwater bivalves for translocation induces short-term behavioural costs

Tagging animals is frequently employed in ecological studies to monitor individual behaviour, for example postrelease survival and dispersal of captive-bred animals used in conservation programmes. While the majority of studies focus on the efficacy of tags in facilitating the relocation and identification of individuals, few assess the direct effects of tagging in biasing animal behaviour. We used an experimental approach with a control to differentiate the effects of handling and tagging captive-bred juvenile freshwater pearl mussels, Margaritifera margaritifera, prior to release into the wild. Marking individuals with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags significantly decreased their burrowing rate and, therefore, increased the time taken to burrow into the substrate. This effect was contributed to, in part, by the detrimental impacts of handling, which also significantly affected activity, burrowing ability and the time taken for each individual to emerge and start probing the substrate. Disturbance during handling and tagging may lead to indirect mortality after release by increasing the risk of predation or dislodgement during flooding, thereby potentially compromising any conservation strategy contingent on population supplementation or reintroduction. This is the first study to demonstrate that handling and PIT tagging has a detrimental impact on invertebrate behaviour. Moreover, our results provide useful information that will inform freshwater bivalve conservation strategies.

Commonality in Returns, Order Flows, and Liquidity in the Greek Stock Market

Using a unique high-frequency data-set on a comprehensive sample of Greek blue-chip stocks, spanning from September 2003 through March 2006, this note assesses the extent and role of commonality in returns, order flows (OFs), and liquidity. It also formally models aggregate equity returns in terms of aggregate equity OF, in an effort to clarify OF's importance in explaining returns for the Athens Exchange market. Almost a quarter of the daily returns in the FTSE/ATHEX20 index is explained by aggregate own OF. In a second step, using principal components and canonical correlation analyses, we document substantial common movements in returns, OFs, and liquidity, both on a market-wide basis and on an individual security basis. These results emphasize that asset pricing and liquidity cannot be analyzed in isolation from each other.

What Did the Lawyers Do During the 'War' ? Neutrality, Conflcit and the Culture of Quietism

Using Northern Ireland as a case study, this paper explores how lawyers responded to the challenges of entrenched discrimination, sustained political violence and an emerging peace process. Drawing upon the literature of the sociology of lawyering, it examines whether lawyers can or should be more than ‘paid technicians’ in such circumstances. It focuses in particular upon a number of ‘critical junctures’ in the legal history of the jurisdiction and uncouples key elements of the local legal culture which contributed to an ethos of quietism. The paper argues that the version of legal professionalism that emerged in Northern Ireland was contingent and socially constructed and, with notable exceptions, obfuscated a collective failure of moral courage. It concludes that facing the truth concerning past silence is fundamental to a properly embedded rule of law and a more grounded notion of what it means to be a lawyer in a conflict.

Remanufacturer-Manufacturer Collaborative Model in the Smae Channel

This paper adds to the growing literature of market competition related to the remanufacturer by analyzing the model where the remanufacturer and the manufacturer collaborate with each other in the same channel. This paper investigates a single-period deterministic model which keeps the analysis simple so as to obtain sharper insights. The results characterize the optimal remanufacturing and pricing strategies for the remanufacturer and the manufacturer in the collaborative model

The Effect of Risk Sensitivity on Collaborative New Product Development in a Supply Chain

The increasing risks and costs of new product development require firms to collaborate with their supply chain partners in product management. In this paper, a supply chain model is proposed with one risk-neutral supplier and one risk-averse manufacturer. The manufacturer has an opportunity to enhance demand by developing a new product, but both the actual demand for new product and the supplier’s wholesale price are uncertain. The supplier has an incentive to share risks of new product development via an advance commitment to wholesale price for its own profit maximization. The effects of the manufacturer’s risk sensitivity on the players’ optimal strategies are analyzed and the trade-off between innovation incentives and pricing flexibility is investigated from the perspective of the supplier. The results highlight the significant role of risk sensitivity in collaborative new product development, and it is found that the manufacturer’s innovation level and retail price are always decreasing in the risk sensitivity, and the supplier prefers commitment to wholesale price only when the risk sensitivity is below a certain threshold.

Why do people non-demand reveal in hypothetical double referenda for public goods?

Hypothetical contingent valuation surveys used to elicit values for environmental and other public goods often employ variants of the referendum mechanism due to the cognitive simplicity and familiarity of respondents with this voting format. One variant, the double referendum mechanism, requires respondents to state twice how they would vote for a given policy proposal given their cost of the good. Data from these surveys often exhibit anomalies inconsistent with standard economic models of consumer preferences. There are a number of published explanations for these anomalies, mostly focusing on problems with the second vote. This article investigates which aspects of the hypothetical task affect the degree of nondemand revelation and takes an individual-based approach to identifying people most likely to non-demand reveal. A clear profile emerges from our model of a person who faces a negative surplus i.e. a net loss in the second vote and invokes non self-interested, non financial motivations during the decision process.