A hidden Markov model approach for determining vessel activity from vessel monitoring system data.

Many fisheries worldwide have adopted vessel monitoring systems (VMS) for compliance purposes. An added benefit of these systems is that they collect a large amount of data on vessel locations at very fine spatial and temporal scales. This data can provide a wealth of information for stock assessment, research, and management. However, since most VMS implementations record vessel location at set time intervals with no regard to vessel activity, some methodology is required to determine which data records correspond to fishing activity. This paper describes a probabilistic approach, based on hidden Markov models (HMMs), to determine vessel activity. A HMM provides a natural framework for the problem and, by definition, models the intrinsic temporal correlation of the data. The paper describes the general approach that was developed and presents an example of this approach applied to the Queensland trawl fishery off the coast of eastern Australia. Finally, a simulation experiment is presented that compares the misallocation rates of the HMM approach with other approaches.

Fishing power and standardised catch rates: Implications of missing vessel-characteristic data from the Australian eastern king prawn fishery

Standardised time series of fishery catch rates require collations of fishing power data on vessel characteristics. Linear mixed models were used to quantify fishing power trends and study the effect of missing data encountered when relying on commercial logbooks. For this, Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus) harvests were analysed with historical (from vessel surveys) and current (from commercial logbooks) vessel data. Between 1989 and 2010, fishing power increased up to 76%. To date, both forward-filling and, alternatively, omitting records with missing vessel information from commercial logbooks produce broadly similar fishing power increases and standardised catch rates, due to the strong influence of years with complete vessel data (16 out of 23 years of data). However, if gaps in vessel information had not originated randomly and skippers from the most efficient vessels were the most diligent at filling in logbooks, considerable errors would be introduced. Also, the buffering effect of complete years would be short lived as years with missing data accumulate. Given ongoing changes in fleet profile with high-catching vessels fishing proportionately more of the fleet’s effort, compliance with logbook completion, or alternatively ongoing vessel gear surveys, is required for generating accurate estimates of fishing power and standardised catch rates.

Ecological risk assessment of the East Coast Otter Trawl Fishery in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park: Data report

An ecological risk assessment of the East Coast Otter Trawl Fishery in the Great Barrier Reef Region was undertaken in 2010 and 2011. It assessed the risks posed by this fishery to achieving fishery-related and broader ecological objectives of both the Queensland and Australian governments, including risks to the values and integrity of the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area. The risks assessed included direct and indirect effects on the species caught in the fishery as well as on the structure and functioning of the ecosystem. This ecosystem-based approach included an assessment of the impacts on harvested species, by-catch, species of conservation concern, marine habitats, species assemblages and ecosystem processes. The assessment took into account current management arrangements and fishing practices at the time of the assessment. The main findings of the assessment were: Current risk levels from trawling activities are generally low. Some risks from trawling remain. Risks from trawling have reduced in the Great Barrier Reef Region. Trawl fishing effort is a key driver of ecological risk. Zoning has been important in reducing risks. Reducing identified unacceptable risks requires a range of management responses. The commercial fishing industry is supportive and being proactive. Further reductions in trawl by-catch, high compliance with rules and accurate information from ongoing risk monitoring are important. Trawl fishing is just one of the sources of risk to the Great Barrier Reef.

Evaluating the performance of weed containment programmes

Aim: To develop approaches to the evaluation of programmes whose strategic objectives are to halt or slow weed spread. Location: Australia. Methods: Key aspects in the evaluation of weed containment programmes are considered. These include the relevance of models that predict the effects of management intervention on spread, the detection of spread, evidence for containment failure and metrics for absolute or partial containment. Case studies documenting either near-absolute (Orobanche ramosa L., branched broomrape) or partial (Parthenium hysterophorus (L.) King and Robinson, parthenium) containment are presented. Results: While useful for informing containment strategies, predictive models cannot be employed in containment programme evaluation owing to the highly stochastic nature of realized weed spread. The quality of observations is critical to the timely detection of weed spread. Effectiveness of surveillance and monitoring activities will be improved by utilizing information on habitat suitability and identification of sites from which spread could most compromise containment. Proof of containment failure may be difficult to obtain. The default option of assuming that a new detection represents containment failure could lead to an underestimate of containment success, the magnitude of which will depend on how often this assumption is made. Main conclusions: Evaluation of weed containment programmes will be relatively straightforward if containment is either absolute or near-absolute and may be based on total containment area and direct measures of containment failure, for example, levels of dispersal, establishment and reproduction beyond (but proximal to) the containment line. Where containment is only partial, other measures of containment effectiveness will be required. These may include changes in the rates of detection of new infestations following the institution of interventions designed to reduce dispersal, the degree of compliance with such interventions, and the effectiveness of tactics intended to reduce fecundity or other demographic drivers of spread. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The antihypertensive drug pindolol attenuates long-term but not short-term binge-like ethanol consumption in mice

Alcohol dependence is a debilitating disorder with current therapies displaying limited efficacy and/or compliance. Consequently, there is a critical need for improved pharmacotherapeutic strategies to manage alcohol use disorders (AUDs). Previous studies have shown that the development of alcohol dependence involves repeated cycles of binge-like ethanol intake and abstinence. Therefore, we used a model of binge-ethanol consumption (drinking-in-the-dark) in mice to test the effects of compounds known to modify the activity of neurotransmitters implicated in alcohol addiction. From this, we have identified the FDA-approved antihypertensive drug pindolol, as a potential candidate for the management of AUDs. We show that the efficacy of pindolol to reduce ethanol consumption is enhanced following long-term (12-weeks) binge-ethanol intake, compared to short-term (4-weeks) intake. Furthermore, pindolol had no effect on locomotor activity or consumption of the natural reward sucrose. Because pindolol acts as a dual beta-adrenergic antagonist and 5-HT1A/1B partial agonist, we examined its effect on spontaneous synaptic activity in the basolateral amygdala (BLA), a brain region densely innervated by serotonin- and norepinephrine-containing fibres. Pindolol increased spontaneous excitatory post-synaptic current frequency in BLA principal neurons from long-term ethanol consuming mice but not naïve mice. Additionally, this effect was blocked by the 5-HT1A/1B receptor antagonist methiothepin, suggesting that altered serotonergic activity in the BLA may contribute to the efficacy of pindolol to reduce ethanol intake following long-term exposure. Although further mechanistic investigations are required, this study demonstrates the potential of pindolol as a new treatment option for AUDs that can be fast-tracked into human clinical studies.

Trends in therapeutic and prevention strategies for management of Bovine Mastitis: An overview

Mastitis is one of the most economically significant diseases for the dairy industry for backyard farmers in developing countries and high producing herds worldwide. Two of the major factors impeding reduction in the incidence of this disease is [a] the lack of availability of an effective vaccine capable of protecting against multiple etiological agents and [b] propensity of some of the etiological agents to develop persistent antibiotic resistance in biofilms. This is further complicated by the continuing revolving shift in the predominant etiological agents of mastitis, depending upon a multitude of factors such as variability in hygienic practices on farms, easy access leading to overuse of appropriate or inappropriate antibiotics at suboptimal concentrations, particularly in developing countries, and lack of compliance with the recommended treatment schedules. Regardless, Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus uberis followed by Escherichia coli, Streptococcus agalactiae has become the predominant etiological agents of bovine mastitis followed Streptococcus agalactiae, Streptococcus dysagalactiae, Klebsiella pneumonia and the newly emerging Mycoplasma bovis. Current approaches being pursued to reduce the negative economic impact of this disease are through early diagnosis of infection, immediate treatment with an antibiotic found to either inhibit or kill the pathogen(s) in vitro using planktonic cultures and the use of the currently marketed vaccines regardless of their demonstrated effectiveness. Given the limitations of breeding programs, including genetic selection to improve resistance against infectious diseases including mastitis, it is imperative to have the availability of an effective broad-spectrum, preferably cross-protective, vaccine capable of protecting against bovine mastitis for reduction in the incidence of bovine mastitis, as well as interrupting the potential cross-species transmission to humans. This overview highlights the major etiological agents, factors affecting susceptibility to mastitis, and the current status of antibiotic-based therapies and prototype vaccine candidates or commercially available vaccines against bovine mastitis as potential preventative strategies. © 2013 Tiwari JG, et al.

Ordering within moral orders to manage classroom trouble

This paper demonstrates how classroom trouble warranting teacher intervention can stem from transgressions in different layers of the complex moral order regulating classroom interactions. The paper builds from Durkheim’s treatment of schooling as the institution responsible for the inculcation of a shared moral order, Bernstein’s distinction between the instructional and regulative discourses in any pedagogic setting, and the concept of verticality in the instructional discourse to illuminate how curricular knowledge might apply across different contexts. This paper proposes a similar vertical dimension of moral gravity in the regulative discourse, such that some moral expectations apply across any context, while others are highly contextualized. This paper then applies this frame to data from classroom observations conducted in prevocational pathways for 16 years olds created under Australia’s “earning or learning till 17” policy. This paper describes the variety of moral premises teachers invoked in different teacher/class combinations, according to their level of moral gravity to display the dominant use of highly contextualized moral premises seeking institutional compliance, and minimal use of broader moral frames for these students on the brink of entry to the adult world.

Finite element analysis of moving contact in mechanically fastened joints

The Finite Element Method (FEM) has made a number of otherwise intractable problems solvable. An important aspect for achieving an economical and accurate solution through FEM is matching the formulation and the computational organisation to the problem. This was realised forcefully in the present case of the solution of a class of moving contact boundary value problems of fastener joints. This paper deals with the problem of changing contact at the pin-hole interface of a fastener joint. Due to moving contact, the stresses and displacements are nonlinear with load. This would, in general, need an interactive-incremental approach for solution. However, by posing the problem in an inverse way, a solution is sought for obtaining loads to suit given contact configuration. Numerical results are given for typical isotropic and composite plates with rigid pins. Two cases of loading are considered: (i) load applied only at the edges of the plate and (ii) load applied at the pin and reacted at a part of the edge of the plate. Load-contact relationships, compliance and stress-patterns are investigated. This paper clearly demonstrates the simplification achieved by a suitable formulation of the problem. The results are of significance to the design and analysis of fastener joints.

Defining Adequate Vitamin D Intake : Cross-sectional and Intervention Studies

D-vitamiini ylläpitää normaalia luun kasvua ja uudistumista koko elämän ajan. Suomessa, kuten monissa muissakin länsimaissa, väestön D-vitamiinitilanne on riittämätön – talvisin osalla jopa puutteellinen. Tässä väitöskirjassa on tutkittu, lisääkö D-vitamiini luumassan kertymistä kasvuiässä, ja ylläpitäkö D-vitamiini luuston tasapainoista aineenvaihduntaa aikuisiällä. Nämä vaikutukset saattavat ehkäisi osteoporoosin kehittymistä eri ikäkausina. Väitöskirjatyössä tutkittiin erisuuruisten D-vitamiinilisäysten vaikutuksia kolmessa eri ikäryhmässä, jotka olivat 11-12 -vuotiaat tytöt (N=228), 21-49 -vuotiaat miehet (N=54) ja 65-85 -vuotiaat naiset (N=52). Tutkittavat satunnaistettiin ryhmiin, jotka nauttivat joko lumevalmistetta tai 5-20 µg D3-vitamiinia vitamiinilisänä. Tutkimukset olivat kaksoissokkoutettuja. Tutkimuksen aikana tutkittavilta otettiin paastoveri- ja virtsanäytteitä. Lisäksi he täyttivät tutkimuslomakkeen taustatietojen kartoittamiseksi sekä frekvenssikyselylomakkeen kalsiumin ja D-vitamiinin saannin selvittämiseksi. Tyttöjen luunmineraalitiheys (BMD) mitattiin DXA–laitteella ja miesten volumetrinen luuntiheys pQCT-menetelmällä. Näytteistä määritettiin mm. seerumin 25-hydroksi-D-vitamiinin (=S-25-OHD), lisäkilpirauhashormonin (=S-PTH) ja luun aineenvaihduntaa kuvaavien merkkiaineiden pitoisuuksia. Murrosikäisten tyttöjen poikkileikkaustutkimuksessa S-25-OHD- ja luun muodostusmerkkiaineen pitoisuudet vaihtelivat kuukausien välillä; suurimmat pitoisuudet mitattiin syyskuussa ja pienimmät maaliskuussa, mikä kuvastaa vuodenaikaisvaihtelua. Vastaava vaihtelu havaittiin lannerangan ja reisiluun BMD:ssä. D-vitamiinilisäyksellä oli myönteinen vaikutus tyttöjen luumassan lisääntymiseen. Suurin D-vitamiinilisä (10 µg/vrk) lisäsi luumassaa 17.2% enemmän reisiluussa ja 12.5% enemmän lannerangassa verrattuna lumevalmistetta nauttivien tyttöjen vastaaviin tuloksiin, mutta tulos riippui hoitomyöntyvyydestä. D-vitamiinin vaikutus luustoon välittyi vähentyneen luun hajotuksen kautta. Tutkimustuloksiin perustuen riittävä D-vitamiinin saanti murrosikäisille tytöille on 15 µg/vrk. D-vitamiinilisän vaikutus 65-85 -vuotiaiden naisten S-25-OHD-pitoisuuteen vakioitui kuudessa viikossa annoksen ollessa 5-20 µg/vrk. Näillä D-vitamiiniannoksilla ei saavutettu tavoiteltavaa S-25-OHD-pitoisuutta, joka on 80 nmol/l. Arvioimme, että 60 nmol/l -pitoisuuden, jota esiintyy kesäisin tämän ikäryhmän suomalaisilla, tämän ikäryhmän naiset saavuttaisivat 24 µg:n päivittäisellä D-vitamiinin saannilla. Terveillä miehillä havaittiin vuodenaikaisvaihtelu S-25-OHD- ja S-PTH-pitoisuudessa sekä luun hajotusta kuvaavassa merkkiainepitoisuudessa. Toisaalta vaihtelua ei havaittu radiuksen volumetrisessä luuntiheydessä eikä luun muodostusmerkkiaineen pitoisuudessa. Vuodenaikaisvaihtelu estettiin 17 µg:n päivittäisellä D-vitamiinin saannilla, mutta tämän ei havaittu vaikuttavan radiuksen luuntiheyteen kuusi kuukautta kestävän tutkimuksen aikana. Yhteenvetona todetaan, että D-vitamiinin saanti on edelleenkin riittämätöntä tutkimusten kohderyhmillä. Tämä näkyy S-25-OHD- ja PTH-pitoisuuden sekä luunaineenvaihduntaa kuvaavien merkkiaineiden vuodenaikaisvaihteluna, mikä on haitallista luuston hyvinvoinnille. D-vitamiinin saantia tulisi lisätä, jotta vähintäänkin riittävä D-vitamiinitilanne (S-25-OHD>50 nmol/l) tai mahdollisesti jopa tavoiteltava D-vitaminitilanne (S-25-OHD≥80 nmol/l) saavutettaisiin. Jotta D-vitamiinin saannin lisääminen olisi kaikissa ikäryhmissä mahdollista, on suunniteltava nykyistä enemmän D-vitamiinilla täydennettyjä elintarvikkeita.

Finite element analysis of moving contact in mechanically fastened joints

The Finite Element Method (FEM) has made a number of otherwise intractable problems solvable. An important aspect for achieving an economical and accurate solution through FEM is matching the formulation and the computational organisation to the problem. This was realised forcefully in the present case of the solution of a class of moving contact boundary value problems of fastener joints. This paper deals with the problem of changing contact at the pin-hole interface of a fastener joint. Due to moving contact, the stresses and displacements are nonlinear with load. This would, in general, need an interactive-incremental approach for solution. However, by posing the problem in an inverse way, a solution is sought for obtaining loads to suit given contact configuration. Numerical results are given for typical isotropic and composite plates with rigid pins. Two cases of loading are considered: (i) load applied only at the edges of the plate and (ii) load applied at the pin and reacted at a part of the edge of the plate. Load-contact relationships, compliance and stress-patterns are investigated. This paper clearly demonstrates the simplification achieved by a suitable formulation of the problem. The results are of significance to the design and analysis of fastener joints.

A comparison of self-nominated and actual speeds in work zones

Despite significant research on drivers’ speeding behavior in work zones, little is known about how well drivers’ judgments of appropriate speeds match their actual speeds and what factors influence their judgments. This study aims to fill these two important gaps in the literature by comparing observed speeds in two work zones with drivers’ self-nominated speeds for the same work zones. In an online survey, drivers nominated speeds for the two work zones based on photographs in which the actual posted speed limits were not revealed. A simultaneous equation modelling approach was employed to examine the effects of driver characteristics on their self-nominated speeds. The results showed that survey participants nominated lower speeds (corresponding to higher compliance rates) than those which were observed. Higher speeds were nominated by males than females, young and middle aged drivers than older drivers, and drivers with truck driving experience than those who drive only cars. Larger differences between nominated and observed speeds were found among car drivers than truck drivers. These differences suggest that self-nominated speeds might not be valid indicators of the observed work zone speeds and therefore should not be used as an alternative to observed speed data.

Step based physical activity guidelines for preschool-aged children

OBJECTIVE Public health organizations recommend that preschool-aged children accumulate at least 3h of physical activity (PA) daily. Objective monitoring using pedometers offers an opportunity to measure preschooler's PA and assess compliance with this recommendation. The purpose of this study was to derive step-based recommendations consistent with the 3h PA recommendation for preschool-aged children. METHOD The study sample comprised 916 preschool-aged children, aged 3 to 6years (mean age=5.0+/-0.8years). Children were recruited from kindergartens located in Portugal, between 2009 and 2013. Children wore an ActiGraph GT1M accelerometer that measured PA intensity and steps per day simultaneously over a 7-day monitoring period. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to identify the daily step count threshold associated with meeting the daily 3hour PA recommendation. RESULTS A significant correlation was observed between minutes of total PA and steps per day (r=0.76, p<0.001). The optimal step count for >/=3h of total PA was 9099 steps per day (sensitivity (90%) and specificity (66%)) with area under the ROC curve=0.86 (95% CI: 0.84 to 0.88). CONCLUSION Preschool-aged children who accumulate less than 9000 steps per day may be considered Insufficiently Active.

Comparison of treatment effect sizes associated with surrogate and final patient relevant outcomes in randomised controlled trials: meta-epidemiological study

Objective To quantify and compare the treatment effect and risk of bias of trials reporting biomarkers or intermediate outcomes (surrogate outcomes) versus trials using final patient relevant primary outcomes. Design Meta-epidemiological study. Data sources All randomised clinical trials published in 2005 and 2006 in six high impact medical journals: Annals of Internal Medicine, BMJ, Journal of the American Medical Association, Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine, and PLoS Medicine. Study selection Two independent reviewers selected trials. Data extraction Trial characteristics, risk of bias, and outcomes were recorded according to a predefined form. Two reviewers independently checked data extraction. The ratio of odds ratios was used to quantify the degree of difference in treatment effects between the trials using surrogate outcomes and those using patient relevant outcomes, also adjusted for trial characteristics. A ratio of odds ratios >1.0 implies that trials with surrogate outcomes report larger intervention effects than trials with patient relevant outcomes. Results 84 trials using surrogate outcomes and 101 using patient relevant outcomes were considered for analyses. Study characteristics of trials using surrogate outcomes and those using patient relevant outcomes were well balanced, except for median sample size (371 v 741) and single centre status (23% v 9%). Their risk of bias did not differ. Primary analysis showed trials reporting surrogate endpoints to have larger treatment effects (odds ratio 0.51, 95% confidence interval 0.42 to 0.60) than trials reporting patient relevant outcomes (0.76, 0.70 to 0.82), with an unadjusted ratio of odds ratios of 1.47 (1.07 to 2.01) and adjusted ratio of odds ratios of 1.46 (1.05 to 2.04). This result was consistent across sensitivity and secondary analyses. Conclusions Trials reporting surrogate primary outcomes are more likely to report larger treatment effects than trials reporting final patient relevant primary outcomes. This finding was not explained by differences in the risk of bias or characteristics of the two groups of trials.

Analysis and prevention of extreme vibration in high speed craft - A research framework

Extreme vibration has been reported for small, high speed craft in the maritime sector, with performance and health threatening effects on boat operators and crew. Musculoskeletal injuries are an enduring problem for high speed craft passengers. Spinal or joint injuries and neurological disorders may occur from repetitive pounding over rough water, continued vibration and single impact events. The risk from whole body vibration (WBV) induced through the small vessels mainly depends on time spent on the craft, which can’t be changed in a military scenario; as well as the number of shocks and jolts, and their magnitude and frequency. In the European Union for example, physical agents directives require all employers to control exposure to a number of physical agents including noise and vibration. The EC Vibration Directive 2002/44/EC then sets out regulations for the control of health and safety risks from the exposure of workers to hand arm vibration (HAV) and WBV in the workplace. Australia has exposure standards relating to WBV, AS 2670.1-2001 – Evaluation of human exposure to whole body vibration. This standard is identical to the ISO 2631-1:1997, Mechanical vibration and shock – Evaluation of human exposure to whole-body vibration. Currently, none of the jurisdictions in Australia have specific regulations for vibration exposures in workplaces. However vibration is mentioned to varying degrees in their general regulations, codes of practice and guidance material. WBV on high speed craft is normally caused by “continuous 'hammering' from short steep seas or wind against tide conditions. Shock on High Speed Craft is usually caused by random impacts. Military organisations need the knowledge to make informed decisions regarding their marine operations, compliance with legislation and potentially harmful health effects, and develop and implement appropriate counter-measures. Marine case studies in the UK such as published MAIB (Marine Accident Investigation Branch) reports show injuries that have occurred in operation, and subsequent MCA (Maritime Coastguard Agency) guidance is provided (MGN 436 (M+F), WHOLE-BODY VIBRATION: Guidance on Mitigating Against the Effects of Shocks and Impacts on Small Vessels. MCA, 2011). This paper proposes a research framework to study the origin, impact and pathways for prevention of WBV in small, high speed craft in a maritime environment.

Fracture Behavior of Multidirectional DCB Specimen: Higher-Order Beam Theories

Mathematical models, for the stress analysis of symmetric multidirectional double cantilever beam (DCB) specimen using classical beam theory, first and higher-order shear deformation beam theories, have been developed to determine the Mode I strain energy release rate (SERR) for symmetric multidirectional composites. The SERR has been calculated using the compliance approach. In the present study, both variationally and nonvariationally derived matching conditions have been applied at the crack tip of DCB specimen. For the unidirectional and cross-ply composite DCB specimens, beam models under both plane stress and plane strain conditions in the width direction are applicable with good performance where as for the multidirectional composite DCB specimen, only the beam model under plane strain condition in the width direction appears to be applicable with moderate performance. Among the shear deformation beam theories considered, the performance of higher-order shear deformation beam theory, having quadratic variation for transverse displacement over the thickness, is superior in determining the SERR for multidirectional DCB specimen.