Standard cost model: three different paths and their common problems

Red tape is not desirable as it impedes business growth. Relief from the administrative burdens that businesses face due to legislation can benefit the whole economy, especially at times of recession. However, recent governmental initiatives aimed at reducing administrative burdens have encountered some success, but also failures. This article compares three national initiatives - in the Netherlands, UK and Italy - aimed at cutting red tape by using the Standard Cost Model. Findings highlight the factors affecting the outcomes of measurement and reduction plans and ways to improve the Standard Cost Model methodology.

A comprehensive benchmarking system for evaluating global vegetation models.

We present a benchmark system for global vegetation models. This system provides a quantitative evaluation of multiple simulated vegetation properties, including primary production; seasonal net ecosystem production; vegetation cover, composition and 5 height; fire regime; and runoff. The benchmarks are derived from remotely sensed gridded datasets and site-based observations. The datasets allow comparisons of annual average conditions and seasonal and inter-annual variability, and they allow the impact of spatial and temporal biases in means and variability to be assessed separately. Specifically designed metrics quantify model performance for each process, 10 and are compared to scores based on the temporal or spatial mean value of the observations and a “random” model produced by bootstrap resampling of the observations. The benchmark system is applied to three models: a simple light-use efficiency and water-balance model (the Simple Diagnostic Biosphere Model: SDBM), and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) and Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX) dynamic global 15 vegetation models (DGVMs). SDBM reproduces observed CO2 seasonal cycles, but its simulation of independent measurements of net primary production (NPP) is too high. The two DGVMs show little difference for most benchmarks (including the interannual variability in the growth rate and seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2), but LPX represents burnt fraction demonstrably more accurately. Benchmarking also identified 20 several weaknesses common to both DGVMs. The benchmarking system provides a quantitative approach for evaluating how adequately processes are represented in a model, identifying errors and biases, tracking improvements in performance through model development, and discriminating among models. Adoption of such a system would do much to improve confidence in terrestrial model predictions of climate change 25 impacts and feedbacks.

Synchronisation and commonalities in metropolitan housing market cycles

This paper examines the degree of commonalities present in the cyclical behavior of the eight largest metropolitan housing markets in Australia. Using two techniques originally in the business cycle literature we consider the degree of synchronization present and secondly decompose the series’ into their permanent and cyclical components. Both empirical approaches reveal similar results. Sydney and Melbourne are closely related to each other and are relatively segmented from the smaller metropolitan areas. In contrast, there is substantial evidence of commonalities in the cyclical behavior of the remaining cities, especially those on the Eastern and Southern coasts of Australia.

Stephen Martin Leake: a Victorian's view of the Common Law

This article considers the life and work of Stephen Martin Leake and seeks to locate his work within the wider context of the procedural and substantive transformation of the mid-to-late Victorian legal world. In particular, the article attempts to rescue Leake from obscurity and emphasise his importance in this process. It is argued that Leake’s work began the process whereby common lawyers conceived of their law as organised in a principled rather than procedural manner. Later common law jurists built upon this work. Consideration is also given to the philosophical and jurisprudential sources upon which Leake drew in constructing his treatises.

Seasonal cycles and variability of O3 and H2O in the UT/LMS during SPURT

Airborne high resolution in situ measurements of a large set of trace gases including ozone (O3) and total water (H2O) in the upper troposphere and the lowermost stratosphere (UT/LMS) have been performed above Europe within the SPURT project. SPURT provides an extensive data coverage of the UT/LMS in each season within the time period between November 2001 and July 2003. In the LMS a distinct spring maximum and autumn minimum is observed in O3, whereas its annual cycle in the UT is shifted by 2–3 months later towards the end of the year. The more variable H2O measurements reveal a maximum during summer and a minimum during autumn/winter with no phase shift between the two atmospheric compartments. For a comprehensive insight into trace gas composition and variability in the UT/LMS several statistical methods are applied using chemical, thermal and dynamical vertical coordinates. In particular, 2-dimensional probability distribution functions serve as a tool to transform localised aircraft data to a more comprehensive view of the probed atmospheric region. It appears that both trace gases, O3 and H2O, reveal the most compact arrangement and are best correlated in the view of potential vorticity (PV) and distance to the local tropopause, indicating an advanced mixing state on these surfaces. Thus, strong gradients of PV seem to act as a transport barrier both in the vertical and the horizontal direction. The alignment of trace gas isopleths reflects the existence of a year-round extra-tropical tropopause transition layer. The SPURT measurements reveal that this layer is mainly affected by stratospheric air during winter/spring and by tropospheric air during autumn/summer. Normalised mixing entropy values for O3 and H2O in the LMS appear to be maximal during spring and summer, respectively, indicating highest variability of these trace gases during the respective seasons.

Modelling fire and the terrestrial carbon balance

Four CO2 concentration inversions and the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) versions 2.1 and 3 are used to provide benchmarks for climate-driven modeling of the global land-atmosphere CO2 flux and the contribution of wildfire to this flux. The Land surface Processes and exchanges (LPX) model is introduced. LPX is based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Spread and Intensity of FIRE (LPJ-SPITFIRE) model with amended fire probability calculations. LPX omits human ignition sources yet simulates many aspects of global fire adequately. It captures the major features of observed geographic pattern in burnt area and its seasonal timing and the unimodal relationship of burnt area to precipitation. It simulates features of geographic variation in the sign of the interannual correlations of burnt area with antecedent dryness and precipitation. It simulates well the interannual variability of the global total land-atmosphere CO2 flux. There are differences among the global burnt area time series from GFED2.1, GFED3 and LPX, but some features are common to all. GFED3 fire CO2 fluxes account for only about 1/3 of the variation in total CO2 flux during 1997–2005. This relationship appears to be dominated by the strong climatic dependence of deforestation fires. The relationship of LPX-modeled fire CO2 fluxes to total CO2 fluxes is weak. Observed and modeled total CO2 fluxes track the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) closely; GFED3 burnt area and global fire CO2 flux track the ENSO much less so. The GFED3 fire CO2 flux-ENSO connection is most prominent for the El Niño of 1997–1998, which produced exceptional burning conditions in several regions, especially equatorial Asia. The sign of the observed relationship between ENSO and fire varies regionally, and LPX captures the broad features of this variation. These complexities underscore the need for process-based modeling to assess the consequences of global change for fire and its implications for the carbon cycle.

A universal agro-hydrological model for water and nitrogen cycles in the soil-crop system SMCR_N: critical update and further validation

Agro-hydrological models have widely been used for optimizing resources use and minimizing environmental consequences in agriculture. SMCRN is a recently developed sophisticated model which simulates crop response to nitrogen fertilizer for a wide range of crops, and the associated leaching of nitrate from arable soils. In this paper, we describe the improvements of this model by replacing the existing approximate hydrological cascade algorithm with a new simple and explicit algorithm for the basic soil water flow equation, which not only enhanced the model performance in hydrological simulation, but also was essential to extend the model application to the situations where the capillary flow is important. As a result, the updated SMCRN model could be used for more accurate study of water dynamics in the soil-crop system. The success of the model update was demonstrated by the simulated results that the updated model consistently out-performed the original model in drainage simulations and in predicting time course soil water content in different layers in the soil-wheat system. Tests of the updated SMCRN model against data from 4 field crop experiments showed that crop nitrogen offtakes and soil mineral nitrogen in the top 90 cm were in a good agreement with the measured values, indicating that the model could make more reliable predictions of nitrogen fate in the crop-soil system, and thus provides a useful platform to assess the impacts of nitrogen fertilizer on crop yield and nitrogen leaching from different production systems. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of precipitation climatology simulated by high resolution coupled global models over the South America

The results of coupled high resolution global models (CGCMs) over South America are discussed. HiGEM1.2 and HadGEM1.2 simulations, with horizontal resolution of ~90 and 135 km, respectively, are compared. Precipitation estimations from CMAP (Climate Prediction Center—Merged Analysis of Precipitation), CPC (Climate Prediction Center) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) are used for validation. HiGEM1.2 and HadGEM1.2 simulated seasonal mean precipitation spatial patterns similar to the CMAP. The positioning and migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and of the Pacific and Atlantic subtropical highs are correctly simulated by the models. In HiGEM1.2 and HadGEM1.2, the intensity and locations of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone are in agreement with the observed dataset. The simulated annual cycles are in phase with estimations of rainfall for most of the six regions considered. An important result is that HiGEM1.2 and HadGEM1.2 eliminate a common problem of coarse resolution CGCMs, which is the simulation of a semiannual cycle of precipitation due to the semiannual solar forcing. Comparatively, the use of high resolution in HiGEM1.2 reduces the dry biases in the central part of Brazil during austral winter and spring and in most part of the year over an oceanic box in eastern Uruguay.

Coupled subdaily and multiweek cycles during the lava dome erupt of Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Observations of volcanoes extruding andesitic lava to produce lava domes often reveal cyclic behaviour. At Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, cycles with sub-daily and multi-week periods have been recognised on many occasions. These two types of cycle have been modelled separately as stick-slip magma flow at the junction between a dyke and an overlying cylindrical conduit (Costa et al. 2012), and as the filling and discharge of magma through the elastic-walled dyke (Costa et al., 2007a) respectively. Here, we couple these two models to simulate the behaviour over a period of well-observed multi-week cycles, with accompanying sub-daily cycles, from 13 May to 21 September 1997. The coupled model captures well the asymmetrical first-order behaviour: the first 40% of the multi-week cycle consists of high rates of lava extrusion during short period/high amplitude sub-daily cycles as the dyke reservoir discharges itself. The remainder of the cycle involves increasing pressurization as more magma is stored, and extrusion rate falls, followed by a gradual increase in the period of the sub-daily cycles.

Progress in the genetics of common obesity and type 2 diabetes

The prevalence of obesity and diabetes, which are heritable traits that arise from the interactions of multiple genes and lifestyle factors, continues to rise worldwide, causing serious health problems and imposing a substantial economic burden on societies. For the past 15 years, candidate gene and genome-wide linkage studies have been the main genetic epidemiological approaches to identify genetic loci for obesity and diabetes, yet progress has been slow and success limited. The genome-wide association approach, which has become available in recent years, has dramatically changed the pace of gene discoveries. Genome-wide association is a hypothesis-generating approach that aims to identify new loci associated with the disease or trait of interest. So far, three waves of large-scale genome-wide association studies have identified 19 loci for common obesity and 18 for common type 2 diabetes. Although the combined contribution of these loci to the variation in obesity and diabetes risk is small and their predictive value is typically low, these recently identified loci are set to substantially improve our insights into the pathophysiology of obesity and diabetes. This will require integration of genetic epidemiological methods with functional genomics and proteomics. However, the use of these novel insights for genetic screening and personalised treatment lies some way off in the future.

Studying economics reduces overexploitation in a common resource experiment

This paper studies the economic behavior of agents, who make decisions regarding the sustainability of Common-Pool Resources (CPR). For this purpose, economic experiments are applied to simulate the yield of a CPR, taking into account the influence of economics training on the learning process of individuals, regarding their decisions for sustainability. Based on a non-cooperative game with simultaneous choices, the results of experiments show that after several rounds the existence of economics knowledge reflects a better learning process for making decisions regarding sustainability of CPR.

Role of marine biology in glacial-interglacial CO2 cycles

It has been hypothesized that changes in the marine biological pump caused a major portion of the glacial reduction of atmospheric carbon dioxide by 80 to 100 parts per million through increased iron fertilization of marine plankton, increased ocean nutrient content or utilization, or shifts in dominant plankton types. We analyze sedimentary records of marine productivity at the peak and the middle of the last glacial cycle and show that neither changes in nutrient utilization in the Southern Ocean nor shifts in plankton dominance explain the CO2 drawdown. Iron fertilization and associated mechanisms can be responsible for no more than half the observed drawdown.

Testing for bubbles in indirect property price cycles

Speculative bubbles are generated when investors include the expectation of the future price in their information set. Under these conditions, the actual market price of the security, that is set according to demand and supply, will be a function of the future price and vice versa. In the presence of speculative bubbles, positive expected bubble returns will lead to increased demand and will thus force prices to diverge from their fundamental value. This paper investigates whether the prices of UK equity-traded property stocks over the past 15 years contain evidence of a speculative bubble. The analysis draws upon the methodologies adopted in various studies examining price bubbles in the general stock market. Fundamental values are generated using two models: the dividend discount and the Gordon growth. Variance bounds tests are then applied to test for bubbles in the UK property asset prices. Finally, cointegration analysis is conducted to provide further evidence on the presence of bubbles. Evidence of the existence of bubbles is found, although these appear to be transitory and concentrated in the mid-to-late 1990s.

SPARC Data Initiative: Comparison of water vapor climatologies from international satellite limb sounders

Within the SPARC Data Initiative, the first comprehensive assessment of the quality of 13 water vapor products from 11 limb-viewing satellite instruments (LIMS, SAGE II, UARS-MLS, HALOE, POAM III, SMR, SAGE III, MIPAS, SCIAMACHY, ACE-FTS, and Aura-MLS) obtained within the time period 1978-2010 has been performed. Each instrument's water vapor profile measurements were compiled into monthly zonal mean time series on a common latitude-pressure grid. These time series serve as basis for the "climatological" validation approach used within the project. The evaluations include comparisons of monthly or annual zonal mean cross sections and seasonal cycles in the tropical and extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere averaged over one or more years, comparisons of interannual variability, and a study of the time evolution of physical features in water vapor such as the tropical tape recorder and polar vortex dehydration. Our knowledge of the atmospheric mean state in water vapor is best in the lower and middle stratosphere of the tropics and midlatitudes, with a relative uncertainty of. 2-6% (as quantified by the standard deviation of the instruments' multiannual means). The uncertainty increases toward the polar regions (+/- 10-15%), the mesosphere (+/- 15%), and the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere below 100 hPa (+/- 30-50%), where sampling issues add uncertainty due to large gradients and high natural variability in water vapor. The minimum found in multiannual (1998-2008) mean water vapor in the tropical lower stratosphere is 3.5 ppmv (+/- 14%), with slightly larger uncertainties for monthly mean values. The frequently used HALOE water vapor data set shows consistently lower values than most other data sets throughout the atmosphere, with increasing deviations from the multi-instrument mean below 100 hPa in both the tropics and extratropics. The knowledge gained from these comparisons and regarding the quality of the individual data sets in different regions of the atmosphere will help to improve model-measurement comparisons (e.g., for diagnostics such as the tropical tape recorder or seasonal cycles), data merging activities, and studies of climate variability.