Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants

This paper presents a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). ECLIPSE had a unique systematic concept for designing a realistic and effective mitigation scenario for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs; methane, aerosols and ozone, and their precursor species) and quantifying its climate and air quality impacts, and this paper presents the results in the context of this overarching strategy. The first step in ECLIPSE was to create a new emission inventory based on current legislation (CLE) for the recent past and until 2050. Substantial progress compared to previous work was made by including previously unaccounted types of sources such as flaring of gas associated with oil production, and wick lamps. These emission data were used for present-day reference simulations with four advanced Earth system models (ESMs) and six chemistry transport models (CTMs). The model simulations were compared with a variety of ground-based and satellite observational data sets from Asia, Europe and the Arctic. It was found that the models still underestimate the measured seasonality of aerosols in the Arctic but to a lesser extent than in previous studies. Problems likely related to the emissions were identified for northern Russia and India, in particular. To estimate the climate impacts of SLCPs, ECLIPSE followed two paths of research: the first path calculated radiative forcing (RF) values for a large matrix of SLCP species emissions, for different seasons and regions independently. Based on these RF calculations, the Global Temperature change Potential metric for a time horizon of 20 years (GTP20) was calculated for each SLCP emission type. This climate metric was then used in an integrated assessment model to identify all emission mitigation measures with a beneficial air quality and short-term (20-year) climate impact. These measures together defined a SLCP mitigation (MIT) scenario. Compared to CLE, the MIT scenario would reduce global methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) emissions by about 50 and 80 %, respectively. For CH4, measures on shale gas production, waste management and coal mines were most important. For non-CH4 SLCPs, elimination of high-emitting vehicles and wick lamps, as well as reducing emissions from gas flaring, coal and biomass stoves, agricultural waste, solvents and diesel engines were most important. These measures lead to large reductions in calculated surface concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. We estimate that in the EU, the loss of statistical life expectancy due to air pollution was 7.5 months in 2010, which will be reduced to 5.2 months by 2030 in the CLE scenario. The MIT scenario would reduce this value by another 0.9 to 4.3 months. Substantially larger reductions due to the mitigation are found for China (1.8 months) and India (11–12 months). The climate metrics cannot fully quantify the climate response. Therefore, a second research path was taken. Transient climate ensemble simulations with the four ESMs were run for the CLE and MIT scenarios, to determine the climate impacts of the mitigation. In these simulations, the CLE scenario resulted in a surface temperature increase of 0.70 ± 0.14 K between the years 2006 and 2050. For the decade 2041–2050, the warming was reduced by 0.22 ± 0.07 K in the MIT scenario, and this result was in almost exact agreement with the response calculated based on the emission metrics (reduced warming of 0.22 ± 0.09 K). The metrics calculations suggest that non-CH4 SLCPs contribute ~ 22 % to this response and CH4 78 %. This could not be fully confirmed by the transient simulations, which attributed about 90 % of the temperature response to CH4 reductions. Attribution of the observed temperature response to non-CH4 SLCP emission reductions and BC specifically is hampered in the transient simulations by small forcing and co-emitted species of the emission basket chosen. Nevertheless, an important conclusion is that our mitigation basket as a whole would lead to clear benefits for both air quality and climate. The climate response from BC reductions in our study is smaller than reported previously, possibly because our study is one of the first to use fully coupled climate models, where unforced variability and sea ice responses cause relatively strong temperature fluctuations that may counteract (and, thus, mask) the impacts of small emission reductions. The temperature responses to the mitigation were generally stronger over the continents than over the oceans, and with a warming reduction of 0.44 K (0.39–0.49) K the largest over the Arctic. Our calculations suggest particularly beneficial climate responses in southern Europe, where surface warming was reduced by about 0.3 K and precipitation rates were increased by about 15 (6–21) mm yr−1 (more than 4 % of total precipitation) from spring to autumn. Thus, the mitigation could help to alleviate expected future drought and water shortages in the Mediterranean area. We also report other important results of the ECLIPSE project.

Verbal short‐term memory performance in pupils with Down Syndrome

Research has shown that verbal short‐term memory span is shorter in individuals with Down syndrome than in typically developing individuals of equivalent mental age, but little attention has been given to variations within or across groups. Differences in the environment and in particular educational experiences may play a part in the relative ease or difficulty with which children remember verbal material. This article explores the performance of 26 Egyptian pupils with Down syndrome and 26 Egyptian typically developing children on two verbal short‐term memory tests: digit recall and non‐word repetition tasks. The findings of the study revealed that typically developing children showed superior performance on these tasks to that of pupils with Down syndrome, whose performance was both lower and revealed a narrower range of attainment. Comparisons with the performance of children with Down syndrome in this study suggested that not only did the children with Down syndrome perform more poorly than the typically developing children, their profile also appeared worse than the results of studies of children with a similar mental age with Down syndrome carried out in western countries. The results from this study suggested that, while deficits in verbal short‐term memory in Down syndrome may well be universal, it is important to recognise that performances may vary as a consequence of culture and educational experiences. The significance of these findings is explored with reference to approaches to education and how these are conceptualised in relation to children with disabilities.

Short communication: estimation of the financial benefit of using Jersey milk at different inclusion rates for Cheddar cheese production using partial budgeting

Partial budgeting was used to estimate the net benefit of blending Jersey milk in Holstein-Friesian milk for Cheddar cheese production. Jersey milk increases Cheddar cheese yield. However, the cost of Jersey milk is also higher; thus, determining the balance of profitability is necessary, including consideration of seasonal effects. Input variables were based on a pilot plant experiment run from 2012 to 2013 and industry milk and cheese prices during this period. When Jersey milk was used at an increasing rate with Holstein-Friesian milk (25, 50, 75, and 100% Jersey milk), it resulted in an increase of average net profit of 3.41, 6.44, 8.57, and 11.18 pence per kilogram of milk, respectively, and this additional profit was constant throughout the year. Sensitivity analysis showed that the most influential input on additional profit was cheese yield, whereas cheese price and milk price had a small effect. The minimum increase in yield, which was necessary for the use of Jersey milk to be profitable, was 2.63, 7.28, 9.95, and 12.37% at 25, 50, 75, and 100% Jersey milk, respectively. Including Jersey milk did not affect the quantity of whey butter and powder produced. Althoug further research is needed to ascertain the amount of additional profit that would be found on a commercial scale, the results indicate that using Jersey milk for Cheddar cheese making would lead to an improvement in profit for the cheese makers, especially at higher inclusion rates.

New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants

Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have requested guidance on common greenhouse gas metrics in accounting for Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emission reductions1. Metric choice can affect the relative emphasis placed on reductions of ‘cumulative climate pollutants’ such as carbon dioxide versus ‘short-lived climate pollutants’ (SLCPs), including methane and black carbon2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Here we show that the widely used 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) effectively measures the relative impact of both cumulative pollutants and SLCPs on realized warming 20–40 years after the time of emission. If the overall goal of climate policy is to limit peak warming, GWP100 therefore overstates the importance of current SLCP emissions unless stringent and immediate reductions of all climate pollutants result in temperatures nearing their peak soon after mid-century7, 8, 9, 10, which may be necessary to limit warming to “well below 2 °C” (ref. 1). The GWP100 can be used to approximately equate a one-off pulse emission of a cumulative pollutant and an indefinitely sustained change in the rate of emission of an SLCP11, 12, 13. The climate implications of traditional CO2-equivalent targets are ambiguous unless contributions from cumulative pollutants and SLCPs are specified separately.

Short report: Historical analysis of a near disaster: Anopheles gambiae in Brazil

Attributed to human-mediated dispersal, a species of the Anopheles gambiae complex invaded northeastern Brazil in 1930. This event is considered unique among the intercontinental introductions of disease vectors and the most serious one: ""Few threats to the future health of the Americas have equalled that inherent in the invasion of Brazil, in 1930, by Anopheles gambiae."" Because it was only in the 1960s that An. gambiae was recognized as a species complex now including seven species, the precise species identity of the Brazilian invader remains a mystery. Here we used historical DNA analysis of museum specimens, collected at the time of invasion from Brazil, and aimed at the identification of the Brazilian invader. Our results identify the arid-adapted Anopheles arabiensis as being the actual invading species. Establishing the identity of the species, in addition to being of intrinsic historical interest, can inform future threats of this sort especially in a changing environment. Furthermore, these results highlight the potential danger of human-mediated range expansions of insect disease vectors and the importance of museum collections in retrieving historical information.

Second-order model for remote and close-up short-circuit faults currents on DC traction supply

A technique to calculate the current waveform for both close-up and remote short-circuit faults on DC supplied railways and subways is presented. Exact DC short-circuit current calculation is best performed by sophisticated computer transient simulations. However, an accurate simplified calculation method based on second-order approximation which can be easily executed with the help of a calculator or a spreadsheet program is proposed.

Short-term effects of gamma ray bursts on Earth

The aim of the present work is to study the potential short-term atmospheric and biospheric influence of Gamma Ray Bursts on the Earth. We focus in the ultraviolet flash at planet`s surface, which occurs as a result of the retransmission of the gamma radiation through the atmosphere. This would be the only important short-term effect on life. We mostly consider Archean and Proterozoic eons, and for completeness we also comment on the Phanerozoic. Therefore, in our study we consider atmospheres with oxygen levels ranging from 10(-5) to 1 of the present atmospheric level, representing different moments in the oxygen rise history. Ecological consequences and some strategies to estimate their importance are outlined.

Short-term movements of the South American rattlesnake (Crotalus durissus) in southeastern Brazil

Ecological studies of movements in animals require extensive knowledge of direction, distance and frequency of movements. The purpose of this study was to describe the daily and seasonal movements in a population of the South American rattlesnake, Crotalus durissus. The study population inhabits a cerrado area in southeastern Brazil. Snakes were tracked with externally attached radio-transmitters and thread bobbins. Larger animals tended to make more extensive daily movements, moving further from the initial site of capture. There were no differences in average daily movements between sexes. Site fidelity was higher in the dry season for both sexes. Both sexes moved distances twice as long as those calculated by drawing a straight line between consecutive points. The movement pattern of C. durissus seemed to be similar to that observed in other tropical pit vipers, such as species of the genus Bothrops.

Curiously composite structures of a retrotransposon and a complex repeat associated with chromosome ends of Rhynchosciara americana (Diptera: Sciaridae)

In Drosophila, telomere retrotransposons counterbalance the loss of telomeric DNA. The exceptional mechanism of telomere recovery characterized in Drosophila has not been found in lower dipterans (Nematocera). However, a retroelement resembling a telomere transposon and termed ""RaTART"" has been described in the nematoceran Rhynchosciara americana. In this work, DNA and protein sequence analyses, DNA cloning, and chromosomal localization of probes obtained either by PCR or by screening a genomic library were carried out in order to examine additional features of this retroelement. The analyses performed raise the possibility that RaTART represents a genomic clone composed of distinct repetitive elements, one of which is likely to be responsible for its apparent enrichment at chromosome ends. RaTART sequence in addition allowed to assess a novel subtelomeric region of R. americana chromosomes that was analyzed in this work after subcloning a DNA fragment from a phage insert. It contains a complex repeat that is located in the vicinity of simple and complex tandem repeats characterized previously. Quantification data suggest that the copy number of the repeat is significantly lower than that observed for the ribosomal DNA in the salivary gland of R. americana. A short insertion of the RaTART was identified in the cloned segment, which hybridized preferentially to subtelomeres. Like RaTART, it displays truncated sequences related to distinct retrotransposons, one of which has a conceptual translation product with significant identity with an endonuclease from a lepidopteran retrotransposon. The composite structure of this DNA stretch probably reflects mobile element activity in the subtelomeric region analyzed in this work.

Patterns of diversification in two species of short-tailed bats (Carollia Gray, 1838): the effects of historical fragmentation of Brazilian rainforests

The small-sized frugivorous bat Carollia perspicillata is an understory specialist and occurs in a wide range of lowland habitats, tending to be more common in tropical dry or moist forests of South and Central America. Its sister species, Carollia brevicauda, occurs almost exclusively in the Amazon rainforest. A recent phylogeographic study proposed a hypothesis of origin and subsequent diversification for C. perspicillata along the Atlantic coastal forest of Brazil. Additionally, it also found two allopatric clades for C. brevicauda separated by the Amazon Basin. We used cytochrome b gene sequences and a more extensive sampling to test hypotheses related to the origin and diversification of C. perspicillata plus C. brevicauda clade in South America. The results obtained indicate that there are two sympatric evolutionary lineages within each species. In C. perspicillata, one lineage is limited to the Southern Atlantic Forest, whereas the other is widely distributed. Coalescent analysis points to a simultaneous origin for C. perspicillata and C. brevicauda, although no place for the diversification of each species can be firmly suggested. The phylogeographic pattern shown by C. perspicillata is also congruent with the Pleistocene refugia hypothesis as a likely vicariant phenomenon shaping the present distribution of its intraspecific lineages. (C) 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 102, 527-539.

Short- and long-term anxiogenic effects induced by a single injection of subconvulsant doses of pilocarpine in rats: investigation of the putative role of hippocampal pathways

Behavioral consequences of convulsive episodes are well documented, but less attention was paid to changes that occur in response to subconvulsant doses of drugs. We investigated short- and long-term effects of a single systemic injection of a subconvulsant dose of pilocarpine on the behavior of rats as evaluated in the elevated plus maze. Pilocarpine induced an anxiogenic-like profile 24 h later, and this effect persisted for up to 3 months (% of time spent on open arms at 24 h, control = 35.47 +/- 3.23; pilocarpine 150 = 8.2 +/- 2.6; 3 months, control = 31.9 +/- 5.5; pilocarpine 150 = 9.3 +/- 4.9). Temporary inactivation of fimbria-fornix with lidocaine 4% promoted an anxiolytic-like effect per se, suggesting a tonic control of this pathway on the modulation of anxiety-related behaviors. Lidocaine also reduced the anxiogenic-like profile of animals tested 1 month after pilocarpine treatment (% of time spent on open arms, saline + phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) = 31.7 + 3.7; saline + lidocaine = 54.4 + 4.7; pilocarpine + PBS = 10.3 + 4.1; pilocarpine + lidocaine = 40.1 + 9.1). To determine whether the anxiogenic-like effect was mediated by septal region or by direct hippocampal projections to the diencephalon, the neural transmission of post-commissural fornix was blocked, and a similar reduction in the anxiogenic-like effect of pilocarpine was observed. Our findings suggest that a single systemic injection of pilocarpine may induce long-lasting anxiogenic-like behavior in rats, an effect that appears to be mediated, in part, through a direct path from hippocampus to medial hypothalamic sites involved in fear responses.