Sea-surface temperature records of Termination 1 in the Gulf of California: Challenges for seasonal and interannual analogues of tropical Pacific climate change

Centennial-scale records of sea-surface temperature and opal composition spanning the Last Glacial Maximum and Termination 1 (circa 25–6 ka) are presented here from Guaymas Basin in the Gulf of California. Through the application of two organic geochemistry proxies, the U37K′ index and the TEX86H index, we present evidence for rapid, stepped changes in temperatures during deglaciation. These occur in both temperature proxies at 13 ka (∼3°C increase in 270 years), 10.0 ka (∼2°C decrease over ∼250 years) and at 8.2 ka (3°C increase in <200 years). An additional rapid warming step is also observed in TEX86H at 11.5 ka. In comparing the two temperature proxies and opal content, we consider the potential for upwelling intensity to be recorded and link this millennial-scale variability to shifting Intertropical Convergence Zone position and variations in the strength of the Subtropical High. The onset of the deglacial warming from 17 to 18 ka is comparable to a “southern hemisphere” signal, although the opal record mimics the ice-rafting events of the north Atlantic (Heinrich events). Neither the modern seasonal cycle nor El Niño/Southern Oscillation patterns provide valid analogues for the trends we observe in comparison with other regional records. Fully coupled climate model simulations confirm this result, and in combination we question whether the seasonal or interannual climate variations of the modern climate are valid analogues for the glacial and deglacial tropical Pacific.

Toward seamless prediction: calibration of climate change projections using seasonal forecasts

The CWRF is developed as a climate extension of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) by incorporating numerous improvements in the representation of physical processes and integration of external (top, surface, lateral) forcings that are crucial to climate scales, including interactions between land, atmosphere, and ocean; convection and microphysics; and cloud, aerosol, and radiation; and system consistency throughout all process modules. This extension inherits all WRF functionalities for numerical weather prediction while enhancing the capability for climate modeling. As such, CWRF can be applied seamlessly to weather forecast and climate prediction. The CWRF is built with a comprehensive ensemble of alternative parameterization schemes for each of the key physical processes, including surface (land, ocean), planetary boundary layer, cumulus (deep, shallow), microphysics, cloud, aerosol, and radiation, and their interactions. This facilitates the use of an optimized physics ensemble approach to improve weather or climate prediction along with a reliable uncertainty estimate. The CWRF also emphasizes the societal service capability to provide impactrelevant information by coupling with detailed models of terrestrial hydrology, coastal ocean, crop growth, air quality, and a recently expanded interactive water quality and ecosystem model. This study provides a general CWRF description and basic skill evaluation based on a continuous integration for the period 1979– 2009 as compared with that of WRF, using a 30-km grid spacing over a domain that includes the contiguous United States plus southern Canada and northern Mexico. In addition to advantages of greater application capability, CWRF improves performance in radiation and terrestrial hydrology over WRF and other regional models. Precipitation simulation, however, remains a challenge for all of the tested models.

The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment

The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts.This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate models is considerably greater than the range between emissions and socio-economic scenarios.

Integrating risks of climate change into water management

The Working Group II contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change critically reviewed and assessed tens of thousands of recent publications to inform about the assess current scientific knowledge on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. Chapter 3 of the report focuses on freshwater resources, but water issues are also prominent in other sectoral chapters and in the regional chapters of the Working Group II report as well as in various chapters of Working Group I. With this paper, the lead authors, a review editor and the chapter scientist of the freshwater chapter of the WGII AR5 wish to summarize their assessment of the most relevant risks of climate change related to freshwater systems and to show how assessment and reduction of those risks can be integrated into water management.

Climate change projections and selected impacts for Vietnam

In September 2013, the 5th Assessment Report (5AR) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been released. Taking the 5AR cli-mate change scenarios into account, the World Bank published an earli-er report on climate change and its impacts on selected hot spot re-gions, including Southeast Asia. Currently, dynamical and statistical-dynamical downscaling efforts are underway to obtain higher resolution and more robust regional climate change projections for tropical South-east Asia, including Vietnam. Such initiatives are formalized under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Coordinated Regional Dynamic Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) East Asia and Southeast Asia and also take place in climate change impact projects such as the joint Vietnam-ese-German project “Environmental and Water Protection Technologies of Coastal Zones in Vietnam (EWATEC-COAST)”. In this contribution, the lat-est assessments for changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and tropical cyclones (TCs) under the 5AR Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 are reviewed. Special emphasis is put on changes in extreme events like heat waves and/or heavy precipita-tion. A regional focus is Vietnam south of 16°N. A continued increase in mean near surface temperature is projected, reaching up to 5°C at the end of this century in northern Vietnam un-der the high greenhouse-gas forcing scenario RCP8.5. Overall, project-ed changes in annual precipitation are small, but there is a tendency of more rainfall in the boreal winter dry season. Unprecedented heat waves and an increase in extreme precipitation events are projected by both global and regional climate models. Globally, TCs are projected to decrease in number, but an increase in intensity of peak winds and rain-fall in the inner core region is estimated. Though an assessment of changes in land-falling frequency in Vietnam is uncertain due to difficul-ties in assessing changes in TC tracks, some work indicates a reduction in the number of land-falling TCs in Vietnam. Sea level may rise by 75-100 cm until the end of the century with the Vietnamese coastline experienc-ing 10-15% higher rise than on global average. Given the large rice and aquaculture production in the Mekong and Red River Deltas, that are both prone to TC-related storm surges and flooding, this poses a challenge to foodsecurity and protection of coastal population and assets.

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.

Ecosystem health of Montevideo coastal zone: A multi approach using some different benthic indicators to improve a ten-year-ago assessment

A study on the benthic ecosystem health was performed to assess the environmental quality of Montevideo coastal zone, in view of the construction of a new sanitation system. Data were compared to previous research undertaken 10 years ago, and biochemical composition of organic matter, heavy metals, organic matter, phytopigments, benthic diatoms, macrofauna community structure and a biotic index (AMBI) were used as proxies. Results indicate an environmental quality-gradient, with the worst conditions within the inner stations of Montevideo Bay and an improvement towards the adjacent coastal zone. Higher levels of chromium, lead, phaeopigments, organic biopolymers and poor benthic macrofauna and diatom communities, characterised the hypertrophic innermost portion of Montevideo Bay. Data indicated a clear deterioration of the adjacent coastal zone comparatively to that observed 10 years ago. The complementary use of approaches not applied before (benthic diatoms and organic biopolymers) with those formerly applied improve our assessment of the trophic status and the environmental health of the area. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Uma janela tropical: análise do desempenho luminoso de ambientes com aberturas sombreadas para o clima de Natal/RN

This master thesis introduces assessment procedures of daylighting performance in office rooms with shaded opening, recommendations for Natal-RN (Latitude 05,47' S, Longitude 35,11' W). The studies assume the need of window exterior shading in hot and humid climate buildings. The daylighting performance analyses are based on simulated results for three levels of illuminance (300,500 e 1000 lux) between 08h00 e 16h00, in rooms with 2,80 m height, 6 m large and 4 m, 6 m e 8 m depths, with a centered single opening, window wall ratio (20%, 40% e 60%), four orientations (North, East, South and West), and two types of sky (clear and partially cloudy). The sky characteristics were statistically determined based on hourly data from INPE-CRN solar and daylighting weather station. The lighting performance is resulted from dynamic computer simulation of 72 models using Troplux 3.12. The simulation results were assessed using a new parameter to quantify the use of interior daylighting, the useful percentage of daylight (PULN), which corresponds to the time fraction with satisfactory light, in accordance with the illuminance design. The passive zone depths are defined based on the PULN. Despite the failures of illuminance data from the weather station, the analyses ratified the high potential of daylighting for shaded rooms. The most influential variables on the lighting performance are the opening size and the illuminance of design, while the orientation is a little influential

Avaliação ambiental de manguezais adjacentes aos campos petrolíferos de Macau e Serra (RN), como subsídio às medidas mitigadoras ao processo erosivo

Among the various effects caused by the climate change and human intervention, the mangrove ecosystem changes through of the years has been worth mentioning, which hasn t known which are the pros and cons for the adjacent coastal and estuarine environments yet. It happens due to the present dynamism in these areas, besides of the difficult understanding of the processes associated with evolution. This study aimed to environmentally evaluate adjacent mangroves from the Macau and Serra oil fields, located on Rio Grande do Norte northern coast, to support the mitigating actions related to the containment of the erosive process, as well as, according to the principles of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), to assess the amount of atmospheric carbon sequestered by the studied ecosystem. An inventory was conducted through mangrouve mapping which has supplied this research, especially regarding to the structural characterization of mangrove areas. To understand the local mangrove behavior in a greater level detail, techniques of remote sensing, GIS and GPS were used to make an analogy between the current and past states of the mangrove studied, allowing to make anticipated projections for the future impacts or changes in that region. This study combined data from multispectral LANDSAT 5 TM, Landsat 7 ETM+ with radar microwave data from SAR RADARSAT-1, which increased the interpretation capacity of the data from optical sensor systems. The interpretations have been supported by the data field, representing a better and innovative methodology for the environmental and taxonomic characterization of mangrove forests considered. The results reveal that mangroves of the Ponta do Tubarão Sustainable Development Reserve are biologically representative areas and providing a variety of benefits, especially for local communities, constituting the priority sites for actions development aimed at conservation. They also have been showing the necessity to make mitigating measures in order to recover degraded areas through reforestation or creating new areas of mangrove, as currently 7.1% of the mangrove forests studied are dead or in an advanced state of decomposition. The amount of atmospheric carbon sequestered proved very significant when analyzed for the whole area, which is able to sequester atmospheric 4,294,458 Ton CO2 per year

Estudo estatístico sobre eventos de precipitação intensa no nordeste do Brasil

The Northeast of Brazil (NEB) shows high climate variability, ranging from semiarid regions to a rainy regions. According to the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the NEB is highly susceptible to climate change, and also heavy rainfall events (HRE). However, few climatology studies about these episodes were performed, thus the objective main research is to compute the climatology and trend of the episodes number and the daily rainfall rate associated with HRE in the NEB and its climatologically homogeneous sub regions; relate them to the weak rainfall events and normal rainfall events. The daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the Agência Nacional de Águas, from 1972 to 2002. For selection of rainfall events used the technique of quantiles and the trend was identified using the Mann-Kendall test. The sub regions were obtained by cluster analysis, using as similarity measure the Euclidean distance and Ward agglomerative hierarchical method. The results show that the seasonality of the NEB is being intensified, i.e., the dry season is becoming drier and wet season getting wet. The El Niño and La Niña influence more on the amount of events regarding the intensity, but the sub-regions this influence is less noticeable. Using daily data reanalysis ERAInterim fields of anomalies of the composites of meteorological variables were calculated for the coast of the NEB, to characterize the synoptic environment. The Upper-level cyclonic vortex and the South atlantic convergene zone were identified as the main weather systems responsible for training of EPI on the coastland

Estudo representacional da participação familiar nas atividades dos centros de atenção psicossocial no município de Natal-RN

Comprehending social representations of users relatives of Psychosocial Care Centers (CAPS) from Natal-RN, about their participation in the activities of these services, was the purpose of this study. The research instrument used was a semi-structured interview, led to 28 relatives of users of East and West CAPS II, East and North CAPS-ad, involved in the Relative Therapeutic Group, in Relative Meeting, in the Assembly of Users, Technicians and Relatives, according to the therapeutic schedule of each health services, between August to November 2007. Data obtained in family and users identification were characterized with the aid of charts and boards in absolute and/or percentage values. The discursive material from the guide from interviews was submitted to the informational resource ALCESTE (Analyse Lexicale par Contexte d'un Ensemble of Segments of Texte), and analyzed on the basis of the Theory of Social Representations and Central Nucleus Theory. Most of the relatives were women, married, aged over 50 years, who participated for more than two years in CAPS activities, and a coexistence of more than 11 years with the user. From the classification system of ALCESTE were selected categories, identified by: Category 1, Treatment Improvements and Expectations; Category 2, Living User Before and After; Category 3, Activities Relevance, Contradictions and Suggestions; Category 4, Guidelines -- Psychopharmacology and Medicalization; Category 5, Family Participation and Activities; and Category 6, Therapeutic Conditions Thanks, Tips and Vulnerability. The social representation of the family exists in the desire for change, identifying that we need to promote change by the continuity of therapeutic activities and overcome the detected inconsistencies, targeted by strengthening and by the stability of improvements in living and health conditions of users, experienced in CAPS treatment. The central nucleus had corresponded to positive changes in health and living conditions of users, and the peripheral elements were constituted by family conducts before and during treatment, and the expectations of changes in activities, especially in workshops. Despite this family participation be considered important, it still does not meet conditions to promote the inclusion of family, under an emancipating point of view, capable of causing in subject the hope for autonomy, initiative, individual and collective growths, a closer and active involvement in therapeutic activities, in workshops and discussions

Mapeamento geoambiental do campo de dunas Pirangi-Potengi com ênfase a San Vale e Lagoinha Natal/RN: um instrumento de apoio ao planejamento ambiental

The city of Natal-RN is constructed on dune areas with wavy relives softly waved and green areas that help to keep a pleasant climate, amongst these is distinguished field Pirangi-Potengi the dune with the areas of San Vale and Lagoinha. These environments are being substituted gradual for property and other workmanships of engineering on behalf of the urban expansion. This study the elaboration of a geoambiental mapping of Field had as objective generality Pirangi-Potengi the Dune with emphasis the San Vale and Lagoinha in Natal-RN. The done mapping had as objective specific to elaborate a vegetation map, a map of registers in cadastre of ambient problems to dunes, a map of flooding susceptibility, a map of vulnerability to the underground water contamination and a map of use and occupation of the ground. Of the carried through analysis, the area in study reveals sufficiently degraded, remaining only few green areas and dunares, as well as, the vulnerable presence of areas of vulnerability in floods and areas the contamination of the water-bearing one. The gotten results allow to affirm that this type of mapping, is of great importance for analysis and evaluation of the environment of the city

Proposta de zoneamento ambiental visando a proteção dos recursos hídricos de uma bacia hidrográfica

One of the most important natural resources for sustaining human life, water, has been losing the basic requirements of quality and quantity sufficient enough to attend the population due to water contamination'problems, often caused by human beings themselves. Because of this, the sources of this resource are often located in remote places of the natural environment to ensure the quality of the water. However, when urban expansion began to occupy these areas, which were once regarded as distant, environmental pollution problems began to occur due to occupation of the land without planning. Based on this occurrence, this study aims to propose environmental zoning for the Maxaranguape river watershed in order to protect its water resources. This is important because this river can serve as a source of supply for the metropolitan area of Natal, the capital of Rio Grande do Norte. In accordance to this proposition, the model of natural soil loss vulnerability (CREPANI et al., 2001), the model of aquifer pollution vulnerability (FOSTER et al., 2006), and the legal incompatibility map (CREPANI et al., 2001) were used to delimit the zones. All this was done with Geographic Information System (GIS) and also created a geographic database update of the basin. The results of the first model mentioned indicated that 63.67% of the basin was classified as moderately stable / vulnerable, 35.66% as moderately vulnerable, and 0.67% as vulnerable. The areas with high vulnerability degree correspond with sand dunes and river channels areas. The second model indicated that 2.84% of the basin has low vulnerability, 70.27%) has median vulnerability, and 26.76% and 0.13% has high vulnerability and extreme vulnerability, respectively. The areas with the highest vulnerability values also refer to part of the sand dunes and river channels besides other areas such as Pureza urban area. The legal incompatibility map indicated that the basin has 85.02 km2 of Permanent Protection Area (PPA) and 14.62% of this area has some incongruity of use. Based on these results it was possible to draw three main zones: Protection and Sustainable Use Zone (PSUZ), Protection and Environmental Restoration Zone (PERZ) and Environmental Control Zone, which are divided into A, B and C. The PSUZ refer to the coastal areas of the basin, where the sand dunes are located. These sites should be areas of environmental protection and of sustainable urban expansion. The ZPRA refer to river channels, which are in high need of rehabilitation. The third zone corresponds to the rest of the basin which should have, in general, the mapping of possible sources of contamination for further control on the use and occupation of the river

Avaliação da eficiência da remoção de matéria orgânica e microbiológica de três sistemas de lagoas de estabilização em série na Grande Natal-RN: Beira Rio, Jardim Lola I e Jardim Lola II

Waste stabilization ponds are the main technology in use for domestic sewage treatment in Rio Grande do Norte State (RN), northeast Brazil. The are around 80 systems, constructed mainly by municipal city halls, being series comprised by a primary facultative pond followed by two maturation ponds the most used configuration. Due to problems related with the production and destination of sludge and generation of bad odors, the designers have avoided the use of anaerobic lagoons. The majority of systems are rarely monitored to verify their efficiencies and to get new project parameters for future designing. This work has as purpose to make a diagnosis of efficiency of three series of waste stabilization pond series (WSPS) of Jardim Lola 1, Jardim Lola 2 and Beira Rio, located in the North Zone of the city of the Natal/RN, treating domestic raw sewage, on the removal of organic matter and thermotolerant coliform, comparing the operational conditions of the systems this inside of the bands foreseen in the project, through parameters BOD5, QOD, thermotolerant coliforms, dissolved oxygen, pH, temperature, ammoniac nitrogen, total and suspended solids. The work was carried through in the WSPS, all constituted by a primary facultative pond followed by two maturation ponds. Socioeconomic characteristics of population are predominantly low and all the plants are very near of the contributing basins. The series were monitored from of May the November of 2002, totalizing 20 collections of grab samples of raw sewage and ponds effluents between 8:00 and 9:50 h. The main aspect to be detached by the results was the great concentration of organic matter (BOD and COD) and microorganisms the raw sewage which were around two times more concentrated than those values foreseen one in project. Considering all series the highest removals of organic matter were observed in system Beira Rio (84 and 78% of BOD and COD, respectively), which presented high hydraulic detention time (TDH = 89 days). On the other hand, Jardim Lola 1 and Jardim Lola 2 presented a much lower values of HDT (36 days and 18 days respectively) and their removals of BOD and COD were the same (76% and 60%, respectively). The Beira Rio WSPS, was the most efficient verified in relation to solids and ammonia, proving the great influence of the operational variables such as HDT and applied surface organic loadings on the performance of pond series. Although the treatment plants have reached efficiencies of thermotolerant coliforms around 99,999%, the concentrations in the final effluent can be considered very high for launching in aquatic bodies, particularly those produced by Jardim Lola 1 and Jardim Lola 2 series

Diagnóstico geoambiental com uso do geoprocessamento visando a determinação de potencialidades de uso do solo para a área estuarina do Rio Curimataú - Canguaretama(RN)

The activities developed in the coastal zone always arise the researchers interest, mainly when it is developed in fragile ecological areas, not observing the sustenable development laws. In this context, the analysis presented developed around the estuary of Curimatau river, located in the Eastern coast of Rio Grande do Norte state, integrates information provided by high resolution images of orbital remote sensing (IKONOS II, dated of July of 2003) and images of not-orbital remote sensing (Air photographs of DPU, dated of March of 1997) in a multitemporary perspective, diagnosising patterns of use and occupation, evaluating the main area´s impacts, together with the estuarian region fisiograph of Curimatau river. The use of high resolution images consequently allowed generates a precision cartography, facilitating the quantification of the evolution of the landscape and supporting decisions. Was possible yet, the definition of use areas, conservation areas and preservation areas; that were inserted in the concept of Potentialities: a fundamental element to management of vulnerable areas of the natural point of view. The information provided during the research had been stored in an Enviromental Georreferenced Data Base, constructed under the optics of Geographical Information Systems (GIS), that they facilitate the environment management Through fast access to information. The results were satisfactory, because permits the quantification of evolution of the landscape and the mapping. Beyond the geoenviromental diagnosis, was possible develop maps and matrixes that support the Rio Grande do Norte state costal Management.