Otimização multiobjetivo no controle da dengue

Pós-graduação em Biometria - IBB

Spatial distribution of dengue incidence and socio-environmental conditions in Campinas, São Paulo State, Brazil, 2007

This study aimed to analyze the spatial distribution of dengue risk and its association with socio-environmental conditions. This was an ecological study of the counts of autochthonous dengue cases in the municipality of Campinas, São Paulo State, Brazil, in the year 2007, aggregated according to 47 coverage areas of municipal health centers. Spatial models for mapping diseases were constructed with Bayesian hierarchical models, based on Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA). The analyses were stratified according to two age groups, 0 to 14 years and above 14 years. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of dengue risk is not associated with socio-environmental conditions in the 0 to 14 year age group. In the age group older than 14 years, the relative risk of dengue increases significantly as the level of socio-environmental deprivation increases. Mapping of socio-environmental deprivation and dengue cases proved to be a useful tool for data analysis in dengue surveillance systems.

Spatial Distribution of the Risk of Dengue and the Entomological Indicators in Sumare, State of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Identificação de padrões da dengue em municípios paulistas entre os anos de 2003 a 2011

Pós-graduação em Biociências - FCLAS

A comparative evaluation of the CF:CS and CRS models in Pb-210 chronological studies applied to hydrographic basins in Brazil

The Constant Flux: Constant Sedimentation (CF:CS) and Constant Rate of Supply (CRS) of unsupported/excess Pb-210 models have been applied to a Pb-210 data set providing of eighteen sediments profiles sampled at four riverine systems occurring in Brazil, South America: Corumbatai River basin (S1=Site 1, Sao Paulo State), Atibaia River basin (S2=Site 2, Sao Paulo State), Ribeirao dos Bagres basin (S3=Site 3, Sao Paulo State) and Amazon River mouth. (S4=Site 4, Amapa State). These sites were chosen for a comparative evaluation of the performance of the CF:CS and CRS models due to their pronounced differences on the geographical location, geological context, soil composition, biodiversity, climate, rainfall, and water flow regime, among other variable aspects. However, all sediments cores exhibited a common denominator consisting on a database built from the use of the same techniques for acquiring the sediments major chemical composition (SiO2, Al2O3, Na2O, K2O, CaO, MgO, Fe2O3, MnO, P2O5, TiO2 and LOI-Loss on Ignition) and unsupported/excess 210Pb activity data. In terms of sedimentation rates, the performance of the CRS model was better than that of the CF:CS model as it yielded values more compatible with those expected from field evidences. Under the chronological point of view, the CRS model always provided ages within the permitted range of the Pb-210-method in the studied sites, whereas the CF:CS model predicted some values above 150 years. The SiO2 content decreased in accordance with the LOI increase in all cores analyzed and such inverse relationship was also tracked in the SiO2-LOI curves of historical trends. The SiO2-LOI concentration fluctuations in sites S1 and S3 also coincided with some Cu and Cr inputs in the drainage systems. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Magnetism in spin models for depleted honeycomb-lattice iridates: Spin-glass order towards percolation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Tracking climatically suitable areas for an endemic Cerrado snake under climate change

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Modelos matemáticos e computacionais em dengue

This work was developed starting the study of traditionals mathematical models that describe the epidemiology of infectious díseases by direct or indirect transmission. We did the classical approach of equilibrium solutions search, its analysis of stability analytically and by numerical solutions. After, we applied these techniques in a compartimental model of Dengue transmission that consider the mosquito population (susceptible vector Vs and 'infected vector VI), human population (suseeptíble humans S, infected humans I and recovered humans R) and just one sorotype floating in this population. We found the equilibrium solutions and from their analises, it was possible find the reprodution rate of dísease and which define if the disease will be endemic or not in the population.- ext, we used the method described a..~, [1] to study the infíuence of seasonalíty at vírus transmission, when it just acts on one of rates related with the vector. Lastly, we made de modeling considering the periodicity of alI rates, thereby building, a modeI with temporal dependence that permits to study periodicity of transmission through of the approach of parametrical ressonance and genetic algorithm

Estimativa das emissões de monóxido de carbono por veículos automotivos na cidade de Campinas/SP utilizando o modelo CAL3QHCR

Air pollution is an environmental issue worldwide and frequently cause negative effects on population health and ecosystems on cities. The relationship between climate and atmospheric pollution can be used as a surrogate to the intensity of air pollution. The present and quantity of some gases can be used as indicators to air quality: particulate matter (PM), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). Among those gases, CO has its major source within the cities, where automobiles are the main emitter. But measure pollutant concentration are challenging, sometimes because the lack of good equipments due to high costs and of the large variability of models that varies in precision, way of measure and distribution of sellers. Modeling are useful when there are an intend to evaluate air pollution, its sources and evaluate scenarios. This work aims to use CAL3QHCR model developed by the U.S Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to generate predictive surfaces of CO concentration distribution on a site within Campinas city, located in São Paulo state, Brazil. CAL3QHCR model use data urban automobile circulation to generate spatial results for CO distribution. We observed that the pollution concentration was lower on our modeling than the concentrations measured by Companhia Ambiental do Estado de São Paulo (CETESB), the main environmental company on the São Paulo state. Also the correlation between average estimates of our model and the measure by CETESB was weak, indicating that the model used on this study need to be or better parameterized, or the scale we measured of CO emissions need to be rescaled. Although the model failed to correlate to CETESB data, maybe one that explore the estimated emissions distributed within the sites to understand spatial distributions of CO on the regions. Also, the generated information can also be used to other studies, and come to be useful to explain heat island

Desempenho termoenergético de habitação de interesse social

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Method for obtaining thick brane models

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Modelos matemáticos e computacionais para descrever a transmissão de dois sorotipos de vírus de dengue

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Avaliação da erosão hídrica e transporte de sedimentos através do modelo hidrossedimentológico SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)

Pós-graduação em Geociências e Meio Ambiente - IGCE

Load models support sustainable: planning for Brazil s reservoir aquaculture

Cage aquaculture in hydroelectric reservoirs has great potential for expansion in Brazil, but there are concerns of negative environmental impacts. The environmental sustainability of cage culture depends on hamornization between farming practices and the hydrological peculiarities of the site. Mass balance modeling can estimate the amounts of nutrients that can be loaded without triggering eutrophication and resulting maximum allowable production volume. Careful climate zoning can also assist proper siting.

Designing a vaccination strategy against dengue

In this work we propose a mathematical approach to estimate the dengue force of infection, the average age of dengue first infection, the optimum age to vaccinate children against dengue in a routine fashion and the optimum age interval to introduce the dengue vaccine in a mass vaccination campaign. The model is based on previously published models for vaccination against other childhood infections, which resulted in actual vaccination programmes in Brazil. The model was applied for three areas of distinct levels of endemicity of the city of Recife in Northeastern State of Pernambuco, Brazil. Our results point to an optimal age to introduce the dengue vaccine in the routine immunization programme at two years of age and an age interval to introduce a mass vaccination between three and 14 years of age.