Einsatz von rückgekoppelten mehrstufigen selbstorganisierenden Karten in der Windenergie Leistungsprognose

In dieser Arbeit wird ein Verfahren zum Einsatz neuronaler Netzwerke vorgestellt, das auf iterative Weise Klassifikation und Prognoseschritte mit dem Ziel kombiniert, bessere Ergebnisse der Prognose im Vergleich zu einer einmaligen hintereinander Ausführung dieser Schritte zu erreichen. Dieses Verfahren wird am Beispiel der Prognose der Windstromerzeugung abhängig von der Wettersituation erörtert. Eine Verbesserung wird in diesem Rahmen mit einzelnen Ausreißern erreicht. Verschiedene Aspekte werden in drei Kapiteln diskutiert: In Kapitel 1 werden die verwendeten Daten und ihre elektronische Verarbeitung vorgestellt. Die Daten bestehen zum einen aus Windleistungshochrechnungen für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland der Jahre 2011 und 2012, welche als Transparenzanforderung des Erneuerbaren Energiegesetzes durch die Übertragungsnetzbetreiber publiziert werden müssen. Zum anderen werden Wetterprognosen, die der Deutsche Wetterdienst im Rahmen der Grundversorgung kostenlos bereitstellt, verwendet. Kapitel 2 erläutert zwei aus der Literatur bekannte Verfahren - Online- und Batchalgorithmus - zum Training einer selbstorganisierenden Karte. Aus den dargelegten Verfahrenseigenschaften begründet sich die Wahl des Batchverfahrens für die in Kapitel 3 erläuterte Methode. Das in Kapitel 3 vorgestellte Verfahren hat im modellierten operativen Einsatz den gleichen Ablauf, wie eine Klassifikation mit anschließender klassenspezifischer Prognose. Bei dem Training des Verfahrens wird allerdings iterativ vorgegangen, indem im Anschluss an das Training der klassenspezifischen Prognose ermittelt wird, zu welcher Klasse der Klassifikation ein Eingabedatum gehören sollte, um mit den vorliegenden klassenspezifischen Prognosemodellen die höchste Prognosegüte zu erzielen. Die so gewonnene Einteilung der Eingaben kann genutzt werden, um wiederum eine neue Klassifikationsstufe zu trainieren, deren Klassen eine verbesserte klassenspezifisch Prognose ermöglichen.

Boundaries and Topological Algorithms

This thesis develops a model for the topological structure of situations. In this model, the topological structure of space is altered by the presence or absence of boundaries, such as those at the edges of objects. This allows the intuitive meaning of topological concepts such as region connectivity, function continuity, and preservation of topological structure to be modeled using the standard mathematical definitions. The thesis shows that these concepts are important in a wide range of artificial intelligence problems, including low-level vision, high-level vision, natural language semantics, and high-level reasoning.

From Genetic Algorithms to Efficient Organization

The work described in this thesis began as an inquiry into the nature and use of optimization programs based on "genetic algorithms." That inquiry led, eventually, to three powerful heuristics that are broadly applicable in gradient-ascent programs: First, remember the locations of local maxima and restart the optimization program at a place distant from previously located local maxima. Second, adjust the size of probing steps to suit the local nature of the terrain, shrinking when probes do poorly and growing when probes do well. And third, keep track of the directions of recent successes, so as to probe preferentially in the direction of most rapid ascent. These algorithms lie at the core of a novel optimization program that illustrates the power to be had from deploying them together. The efficacy of this program is demonstrated on several test problems selected from a variety of fields, including De Jong's famous test-problem suite, the traveling salesman problem, the problem of coordinate registration for image guided surgery, the energy minimization problem for determining the shape of organic molecules, and the problem of assessing the structure of sedimentary deposits using seismic data.

Improving Multi-class Text Classification with Naive Bayes

There are numerous text documents available in electronic form. More and more are becoming available every day. Such documents represent a massive amount of information that is easily accessible. Seeking value in this huge collection requires organization; much of the work of organizing documents can be automated through text classification. The accuracy and our understanding of such systems greatly influences their usefulness. In this paper, we seek 1) to advance the understanding of commonly used text classification techniques, and 2) through that understanding, improve the tools that are available for text classification. We begin by clarifying the assumptions made in the derivation of Naive Bayes, noting basic properties and proposing ways for its extension and improvement. Next, we investigate the quality of Naive Bayes parameter estimates and their impact on classification. Our analysis leads to a theorem which gives an explanation for the improvements that can be found in multiclass classification with Naive Bayes using Error-Correcting Output Codes. We use experimental evidence on two commonly-used data sets to exhibit an application of the theorem. Finally, we show fundamental flaws in a commonly-used feature selection algorithm and develop a statistics-based framework for text feature selection. Greater understanding of Naive Bayes and the properties of text allows us to make better use of it in text classification.

Gait Analysis for Classification

This thesis describes a representation of gait appearance for the purpose of person identification and classification. This gait representation is based on simple localized image features such as moments extracted from orthogonal view video silhouettes of human walking motion. A suite of time-integration methods, spanning a range of coarseness of time aggregation and modeling of feature distributions, are applied to these image features to create a suite of gait sequence representations. Despite their simplicity, the resulting feature vectors contain enough information to perform well on human identification and gender classification tasks. We demonstrate the accuracy of recognition on gait video sequences collected over different days and times and under varying lighting environments. Each of the integration methods are investigated for their advantages and disadvantages. An improved gait representation is built based on our experiences with the initial set of gait representations. In addition, we show gender classification results using our gait appearance features, the effect of our heuristic feature selection method, and the significance of individual features.

Learning-Based Approach to Real Time Tracking and Analysis of Faces

This paper describes a trainable system capable of tracking faces and facialsfeatures like eyes and nostrils and estimating basic mouth features such as sdegrees of openness and smile in real time. In developing this system, we have addressed the twin issues of image representation and algorithms for learning. We have used the invariance properties of image representations based on Haar wavelets to robustly capture various facial features. Similarly, unlike previous approaches this system is entirely trained using examples and does not rely on a priori (hand-crafted) models of facial features based on optical flow or facial musculature. The system works in several stages that begin with face detection, followed by localization of facial features and estimation of mouth parameters. Each of these stages is formulated as a problem in supervised learning from examples. We apply the new and robust technique of support vector machines (SVM) for classification in the stage of skin segmentation, face detection and eye detection. Estimation of mouth parameters is modeled as a regression from a sparse subset of coefficients (basis functions) of an overcomplete dictionary of Haar wavelets.

Learning from Incomplete Data

Real-world learning tasks often involve high-dimensional data sets with complex patterns of missing features. In this paper we review the problem of learning from incomplete data from two statistical perspectives---the likelihood-based and the Bayesian. The goal is two-fold: to place current neural network approaches to missing data within a statistical framework, and to describe a set of algorithms, derived from the likelihood-based framework, that handle clustering, classification, and function approximation from incomplete data in a principled and efficient manner. These algorithms are based on mixture modeling and make two distinct appeals to the Expectation-Maximization (EM) principle (Dempster, Laird, and Rubin 1977)---both for the estimation of mixture components and for coping with the missing data.

On the Convergence of Stochastic Iterative Dynamic Programming Algorithms

Recent developments in the area of reinforcement learning have yielded a number of new algorithms for the prediction and control of Markovian environments. These algorithms, including the TD(lambda) algorithm of Sutton (1988) and the Q-learning algorithm of Watkins (1989), can be motivated heuristically as approximations to dynamic programming (DP). In this paper we provide a rigorous proof of convergence of these DP-based learning algorithms by relating them to the powerful techniques of stochastic approximation theory via a new convergence theorem. The theorem establishes a general class of convergent algorithms to which both TD(lambda) and Q-learning belong.

Multiclass Classification of SRBCTs

A novel approach to multiclass tumor classification using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) was introduced in a recent paper cite{Khan2001}. The method successfully classified and diagnosed small, round blue cell tumors (SRBCTs) of childhood into four distinct categories, neuroblastoma (NB), rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) and the Ewing family of tumors (EWS), using cDNA gene expression profiles of samples that included both tumor biopsy material and cell lines. We report that using an approach similar to the one reported by Yeang et al cite{Yeang2001}, i.e. multiclass classification by combining outputs of binary classifiers, we achieved equal accuracy with much fewer features. We report the performances of 3 binary classifiers (k-nearest neighbors (kNN), weighted-voting (WV), and support vector machines (SVM)) with 3 feature selection techniques (Golub's Signal to Noise (SN) ratios cite{Golub99}, Fisher scores (FSc) and Mukherjee's SVM feature selection (SVMFS))cite{Sayan98}.

Improving Multiclass Text Classification with the Support Vector Machine

We compare Naive Bayes and Support Vector Machines on the task of multiclass text classification. Using a variety of approaches to combine the underlying binary classifiers, we find that SVMs substantially outperform Naive Bayes. We present full multiclass results on two well-known text data sets, including the lowest error to date on both data sets. We develop a new indicator of binary performance to show that the SVM's lower multiclass error is a result of its improved binary performance. Furthermore, we demonstrate and explore the surprising result that one-vs-all classification performs favorably compared to other approaches even though it has no error-correcting properties.

Visual Segmentation without Classification in a Model of the Primary Visual Cortex

Stimuli outside classical receptive fields significantly influence the neurons' activities in primary visual cortex. We propose that such contextual influences are used to segment regions by detecting the breakdown of homogeneity or translation invariance in the input, thus computing global region boundaries using local interactions. This is implemented in a biologically based model of V1, and demonstrated in examples of texture segmentation and figure-ground segregation. By contrast with traditional approaches, segmentation occurs without classification or comparison of features within or between regions and is performed by exactly the same neural circuit responsible for the dual problem of the grouping and enhancement of contours.

Estimating Dependency Structure as a Hidden Variable

This paper introduces a probability model, the mixture of trees that can account for sparse, dynamically changing dependence relationships. We present a family of efficient algorithms that use EM and the Minimum Spanning Tree algorithm to find the ML and MAP mixture of trees for a variety of priors, including the Dirichlet and the MDL priors. We also show that the single tree classifier acts like an implicit feature selector, thus making the classification performance insensitive to irrelevant attributes. Experimental results demonstrate the excellent performance of the new model both in density estimation and in classification.

From Regression to Classification in Support Vector Machines

We study the relation between support vector machines (SVMs) for regression (SVMR) and SVM for classification (SVMC). We show that for a given SVMC solution there exists a SVMR solution which is equivalent for a certain choice of the parameters. In particular our result is that for $epsilon$ sufficiently close to one, the optimal hyperplane and threshold for the SVMC problem with regularization parameter C_c are equal to (1-epsilon)^{- 1} times the optimal hyperplane and threshold for SVMR with regularization parameter C_r = (1-epsilon)C_c. A direct consequence of this result is that SVMC can be seen as a special case of SVMR.

Support Vector Machines: Training and Applications

The Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a new and very promising classification technique developed by Vapnik and his group at AT&T Bell Labs. This new learning algorithm can be seen as an alternative training technique for Polynomial, Radial Basis Function and Multi-Layer Perceptron classifiers. An interesting property of this approach is that it is an approximate implementation of the Structural Risk Minimization (SRM) induction principle. The derivation of Support Vector Machines, its relationship with SRM, and its geometrical insight, are discussed in this paper. Training a SVM is equivalent to solve a quadratic programming problem with linear and box constraints in a number of variables equal to the number of data points. When the number of data points exceeds few thousands the problem is very challenging, because the quadratic form is completely dense, so the memory needed to store the problem grows with the square of the number of data points. Therefore, training problems arising in some real applications with large data sets are impossible to load into memory, and cannot be solved using standard non-linear constrained optimization algorithms. We present a decomposition algorithm that can be used to train SVM's over large data sets. The main idea behind the decomposition is the iterative solution of sub-problems and the evaluation of, and also establish the stopping criteria for the algorithm. We present previous approaches, as well as results and important details of our implementation of the algorithm using a second-order variant of the Reduced Gradient Method as the solver of the sub-problems. As an application of SVM's, we present preliminary results we obtained applying SVM to the problem of detecting frontal human faces in real images.

Scaling algorithms for distributed max flow

Bibliography: p. 22-24.