Describing long-term trends in precipitation using generalized additive models

With the current concern over climate change, descriptions of how rainfall patterns are changing over time can be useful. Observations of daily rainfall data over the last few decades provide information on these trends. Generalized linear models are typically used to model patterns in the occurrence and intensity of rainfall. These models describe rainfall patterns for an average year but are more limited when describing long-term trends, particularly when these are potentially non-linear. Generalized additive models (GAMS) provide a framework for modelling non-linear relationships by fitting smooth functions to the data. This paper describes how GAMS can extend the flexibility of models to describe seasonal patterns and long-term trends in the occurrence and intensity of daily rainfall using data from Mauritius from 1962 to 2001. Smoothed estimates from the models provide useful graphical descriptions of changing rainfall patterns over the last 40 years at this location. GAMS are particularly helpful when exploring non-linear relationships in the data. Care is needed to ensure the choice of smooth functions is appropriate for the data and modelling objectives. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chemical characterisation of wild populations of Thymus from different climatic regions in southeast Spain

Thymus is taxonomically a very complex genus with a high frequency of hybridisation and introgression among sympatric species. The variation in accumulation of leaf-surface flavonoids was investigated in 71 wild populations of Thymus front different putative hybrid swarm areas in Andalucia, Spain. Twenty-two flavones, five flavanones, two dihydroflavonols, a flavonol and two unknowns were detected by HPLC-DAD combined with LC-APCI-MS analysis. The majority of compounds were flavones with a lutelin-type substitution of the B-ring, in contrast to previous reports on Macedonian taxa, which predominantly accumulate flavones with apigenin-type substitution of the B-ring. Anatomical and morphometric studies, supported by cluster analysis, identified pure Thymus hyemalis and Thymus baeticus populations, and a large number of putative hybrids. Flavonoid variation was closely related to morphological variation in all populations and is suspected to be a result of genetic polymorphism. Principal component analysis identified the presence of species-specific and geographically linked chemotypes and putative hybrids with mixed morphological and chemical characteristics. Qualitative and quantitative flavonoid accumulation appears to be genetically regulated, while external factors play a secondary role. Flavonoid profiles can thus provide diagnostic markers for the taxonomy of Thymus and are also useful in detecting hybridising taxa. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Electrochemical determination of plant-derived leuco-indigo after chemical reduction by glucose

Electrochemical determination of redox active dye species is demonstrated in indigo samples contaminated with high levels of organic and inorganic impurities. The use of a hydrodynamic electrode system based on a vibrating probe (250 Hz, 200 mu m lateral amplitude) allows time-independent diffusion controlled signals to be enhanced and reliable concentration data to be obtained under steady state conditions at relatively fast scan rates up to 4 V s-1In this work the indigo content of a complex plant-derived indigo sample (dye content typically 30%) is determined after indigo is reduced by addition of glucose in aqueous 0.2 M NaOH. The soluble leuco-indigo is measured by its oxidation response at a vibrating electrode. The vibrating electrode, which consisted of a laterally vibrating 500 mu m diameter gold disc, is calibrated with Fe(CN)(6) 3-/4- in 0.1 M KCl and employed for indigo determination at 55, 65, and 75 C in 0.2 M NaOH. Determinations of the indigo content of 25 different samples of plant-derived indigo are compared with those obtained by conventional spectrophotometry. This comparison suggests a significant improvement by the electrochemical method, which appears to be less sensitive to impurities.

Evolution of micromorphological and chemical characters in the lichen-forming fungal family Pertusariaceae

Micromorphological characters of the fruiting bodies, such as ascus-type and hymenial amyloidity, and secondary chemistry have been widely employed as key characters in Ascomycota classification. However, the evolution of these characters has yet not been studied using molecular phylogenies. We have used a combined Bayesian and maximum likelihood based approach to trace character evolution on a tree inferred from a combined analysis of nuclear and mitochondrial ribosomal DNA sequences. The maximum likelihood aspect overcomes simplifications inherent in maximum parsimony methods, whereas the Markov chain Monte Carlo aspect renders results independent of any particular phylogenetic tree. The results indicate that the evolution of the two chemical characters is quite different, being stable once developed for the medullary lecanoric acid, whereas the cortical chlorinated xanthones appear to have been lost several times. The current ascus-types and the amyloidity of the hymenial gel in Pertusariaceae appear to have been developed within the family. The basal ascus-type of pertusarialean fungi remains unknown. (c) 2006 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2006, 89, 615-626.

Population growth rate and carrying capacity for springtails Folsomia candida exposed to ivermectin

Forecasting the effects of stressors on the dynamics of natural populations requires assessment of the joint effects of a stressor and population density on the population response. The effects can be depicted as a contour map in which the population response, here assessed by Population growth rate, varies with stress and density in the same way that the height of land above sea level varies with latitude and longitude. We present the first complete map of this type using as our model Folsomia candida exposed to five different concentrations of the widespread anthelmintic veterinary medicine ivermectin in replicated microcosm experiments lasting 49 days. The concentrations of ivermectin in yeast were 0.0, 6.8 28.83 66.4 and 210.0 mg/L wet weight. Increasing density and chemical concentration both significantly reduced the population growth rate of Folsomia candida, in part through effects on food consumption and fecundity. The interaction between density and ivermectin concentration was "less-than-additive," implying that at high density populations were able to compensate for the effects of the chemical. This result demonstrates that regulatory protocols carried out at low density (as in most past experiments) may seriously overestimate effects in the field, where densities are locally high and populations are resource limited (e.g., in feces of livestock treated with ivermectin).

Joint effects of density and a growth inhibitor on the life history and population growth rate of the midge Chironomus riparius

Results of previous laboratory studies suggest that high population density often buffers the effects of chemical stressors that predominately increase mortality. Mortality stressors act to release more resources for the survivors and, therefore, produce less-than-additive effects. By contrast, growth stressors are expected to have opposite results or more-than-additive effects. We investigated the effects of a growth inhibitor (lufenuron) on larval growth and survival of Chironomus riparius and examined its joint effects with density on population growth rate (PGR). Exposure to 60 mu g/kg sediment or greater inhibited larval growth, and exposure to 88 mu g/kg or greater often resulted in mortality before reaching emergence. The effects of lufenuron, however, differed with population density. At 88 mu g/kg, mortalities and, to a lesser extent, reduced fecundity resulted in a reduction in PGR at low density. Conversely, when populations were initiated at high density, PGR was similar to that of controls, because the few survivors reached maturity sooner and started producing offspring earlier. The effect of density as a growth stressor therefore was stronger than the effect of lufenuron, which had effects similar to those of a mortality stressor and produced less-than-additive effects. Longterm studies under field conditions, however, are needed before less-than-additive effects are considered to be the norm.

Combining physical, cultural and biological methods: prospects for integrated non-chemical weed management strategies

Physical, cultural and biological methods for weed control have developed largely independently and are often concerned with weed control in different systems: physical and cultural control in annual crops and biocontrol in extensive grasslands. We discuss the strengths and limitations of four physical and cultural methods for weed control: mechanical, thermal, cutting, and intercropping, and the advantages and disadvantages of combining biological control with them. These physical and cultural control methods may increase soil nitrogen levels and alter microclimate at soil level; this may be of benefit to biocontrol agents, although physical disturbance to the soil and plant damage may be detrimental. Some weeds escape control by these methods; we suggest that these weeds may be controlled by biocontrol agents. It will be easiest to combine biological control with. re and cutting in grasslands; within arable systems it would be most promising to combine biological control (especially using seed predators and foliar pathogens) with cover-cropping, and mechanical weeding combined with foliar bacterial and possibly foliar fungal pathogens. We stress the need to consider the timing of application of combined control methods in order to cause least damage to the biocontrol agent, along with maximum damage to the weed and to consider the wider implications of these different weed control methods.

The joint effects of larval density and C-14-cypermethrin on the life history and population growth rate of the midge Chironomus riparius

1. Chemical effects on organisms are typically assessed using individual-level endpoints or sometimes population growth rate (PGR), but such measurements are generally made at low population densities. In contrast most natural populations are subject to density dependence and fluctuate around the environmental carrying capacity as a result of individual competition for resources. As ecotoxicology aims to make reliable population projections of chemical impacts in the field, an understanding of how high-density or resource-limited populations respond to environmental chemicals is essential. 2. Our objective was to determine the joint effects of population density and chemical stress on the life history and PGR of an important ecotoxicological indicator species, Chironomus riparius, under controlled laboratory conditions. Populations were fed the same ration but initiated at different densities and exposed to a solvent control and three concentrations of C-14-cypermethrin in a sediment-water test system for 67 days at 20 +/- 1 degreesC. 3. Density had a negative effect on all the measured life-history traits, and PGR declined with increasing density in the controls. Exposure to C-14-cypermethrin had a direct negative effect on juvenile survival, presumably within the first 24 h because the chemical rapidly dissipated from the water column. Reductions in the initial larval densities resulted in an increase in the available resources for the survivors. Subsequently, exposed populations emerged sooner and started producing offspring earlier than the controls. C-14-cypermethrin had no effect on estimated fecundity and adult body weight but interacted with density to reduce the time to first emergence and first reproduction. As a result, PGR increased with cypermethrin concentration when populations were initiated at high densities. 4. Synthesis and applications. The results showed that the effects of C-14-cypermethrin were buffered at high density, so that the joint effects of density and chemical stress on PGR were less than additive. Low levels of chemical stressors may increase carrying capacity by reducing juvenile competition for resources. More and perhaps fitter adults may be produced, similar to the effects of predators and culling; however, toxicant exposure may result in survivors that are less tolerant to changing conditions. If less than additive effects are typical in the field, standard regulatory tests carried out at low density may overestimate the effects of environmental chemicals. Further studies over a wide range of chemical stressors and organisms with contrasting life histories are needed to make general recommendations.

A comparison of the reactivity of germylene and dimethylgermylene with some methylgermanes. Direct kinetic and quantum chemical studies

Time-resolved studies of germylene, GeH2, and dimethygermylene, GeMe2, generated by the 193 nm laser flash photolysis of appropriate precursor molecules have been carried out to try to obtain rate coefficients for their bimolecular reactions with dimethylgermane, Me2GeH2, in the gas-phase. GeH2 + Me2GeH2 was studied over the pressure range 1-100 Torr with SF6 as bath gas and at five temperatures in the range 296-553 K. Only slight pressure dependences were found (at 386, 447 and 553 K). RRKM modelling was carried out to fit these pressure dependences. The high pressure rate coefficients gave the Arrhenius parameters: log(A/cm(3) molecule(-1)s(-1)) = -10.99 +/- 0.07 and E-a = -(7.35 +/- 0.48) kJ mol(-1). No reaction could be found between GeMe2 + Me2GeH2 at any temperature up to 549 K, and upper limits of ca. 10(-14) cm(3) molecule(-1)s(-1) were set for the rate coefficients. A rate coefficient of (1.33 +/- 0.04) x 10(-11)cm(3) molecule(-1)s(-1) was also obtained for GeH2 + MeGeH3 at 296 K. No reaction was found between GeMe2 and MeGeH3. Rate coefficient comparisons showed, inter alia, that in the substrate germane Me-for-H substitution increased the magnitudes of rate coefficients significantly, while in the germylene Me-for-H substitution decreased the magnitudes of rate coefficients by at least four orders of magnitude. Quantum chemical calculations (G2(MP2,SVP)// B3LYP level) supported these findings and showed that the lack of reactivity of GeMe2 is caused by a positive energy barrier for rearrangement of the initially formed complexes. Full details of the structures of intermediate complexes and the discussion of their stabilities are given in the paper.

Surprisingly slow reaction of dimethylsilylene with dimethylgermane: time-resolved kinetic studies and related quantum chemical calculations

Time-resolved studies of silylene, SiH2, and dimethylsilylene, SiMe2, generated by the 193 nm laser flash photolysis of appropriate precursor molecules have been carried out to obtain rate constants for their bimolecular reactions with dimethylgermane, Me2GeH2, in the gas phase. SiMe2 + Me2GeH2 was studied at five temperatures in the range 299-555 K. Problems of substrate UV absorption at 193 nm at temperatures above 400 K meant that only three temperatures could be used reliably for rate constant measurement. These rate constants gave the Arrhenius parameters log(A/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = -13.25 +/- 0.16 and E-a = -(5.01 +/- 1.01) kJ mol(-1). Only room temperature studies of SiH2 were carried out. These gave values of (4.05 +/- 0.06) x 10(-10) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) (SiH2 + Me2GeH2 at 295 K) and also (4.41 +/- 0.07) x 10(-10) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) (SiH2 + MeGeH3 at 296 K). Rate constant comparisons show the surprising result that SiMe2 reacts 12.5 times slower with Me2GeH2 than with Me2SiH2. Quantum chemical calculations (G2(MP2,SVP)//B3LYP level) of the model Si-H and Ge-H insertion processes of SiMe2 with SiH4/MeSiH3 and GeH4/MeGeH3 support these findings and show that the lower reactivity of SiMe2 with Ge-H bonds is caused by a higher secondary barrier for rearrangement of the initially formed complexes. Full details of the structures of intermediate complexes and the discussion of their stabilities are given in the paper. Other, related, comparisons of silylene reactivity are also presented.

An investigation of the germylene addition reaction, GeH2+C2H2: Time-resolved gas-phase kinetic studies and quantum chemical calculations of the reaction energy surface

Time resolved studies of germylene, GeH2, generated by laser flash photolysis of 3,4-dimethylgermacyclopentene-3, have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with acetylene, C2H2. The reaction was studied in the gas-phase over the pressure range 1-100 Tort, with SF6 as bath gas, at 5 temperatures in the range 297-553 K. The reaction showed a very slight pressure dependence at higher temperatures. The high pressure rate constants (obtained by extrapolation at the three higher temperatures) gave the Arrhenius equation: log(k(infinity)/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) (-10.94 +/- 0.05) + (6.10 +/- 0.36 kJ mol(-1))/RTln10. These Arrhenius parameters are consistent with a fast reaction occurring at approximately 30% of the collision rate at 298 K. Quantum chemical calculations (both DFT and ab initio G2//B3LYP and G2//QCISD) of the GeC2H4 potential energy surface (PES), show that GeH2 + C2H2 react initially to form germirene which can isomerise to vinylgermylene with a relatively low barrier. RRKM modelling, based on a loose association transition state, but assuming vinylgermylene is the end product (used in combination with a weak collisional deactivation model) predicts a strong pressure dependence using the calculated energies, in conflict with the experimental evidence. The detailed GeC2H4 PES shows considerable complexity with ten other accessible stable minima (B3LYP level), the three most stable of which are all germylenes. Routes through this complex surface were examined in detail. The only product combination which appears capable of satisfying the (P-3) + C2H4.C2H4 was confirmed as a product by GC observed lack of a strong pressure dependence is Ge(P-3) + C2H4. C2H4 was confirmed as a product by GC analysis. Although the formation of these products are shown to be possible by singlet-triplet curve crossing during dissociation of 1-germiranylidene (1-germacyclopropylidene), it seems more likely (on thermochernical grounds) that the triplet biradical, (GeCH2CH2.)-Ge-., is the immediate product precursor. Comparisons are made with the reaction of SiH2 with C2H2.

Time-resolved gas-phase kinetic and quantum chemical studies of the reaction of silylene with oxygen

Time-resolved kinetic studies of the reaction of silylene, SiH2, generated by laser flash photolysis of phenylsilane, have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with O-2. The reaction was studied in the gas phase over the pressure range 1-100 Torr in SF6 bath gas, at five temperatures in the range 297-600 K. The second order rate constants at 10 Torr were fitted to the Arrhenius equation: log(k/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = (-11.08 +/- 0.04) + (1.57 +/- 0.32 kJ mol(-1))/RT ln10 The decrease in rate constant values with increasing temperature, although systematic is very small. The rate constants showed slight increases in value with pressure at each temperature, but this was scarcely beyond experimental uncertainty. From estimates of Lennard-Jones collision rates, this reaction is occurring at ca. 1 in 20 collisions, almost independent of pressure and temperature. Ab initio calculations at the G3 level backed further by multi-configurational (MC) SCF calculations, augmented by second order perturbation theory (MRMP2), support a mechanism in which the initial adduct, H2SiOO, formed in the triplet state (T), undergoes intersystem crossing to the more stable singlet state (S) prior to further low energy isomerisation processes leading, via a sequence of steps, ultimately to dissociation products of which the lowest energy pair are H2O + SiO. The decomposition of the intermediate cyclo-siladioxirane, via O-O bond fission, plays an important role in the overall process. The bottleneck for the overall process appears to be the T -> S process in H2SiOO. This process has a small spin orbit coupling matrix element, consistent with an estimate of its rate constant of 1 x 10(9) s(-1) obtained with the aid of RRKM theory. This interpretation preserves the idea that, as in its reactions in general, SiH2 initially reacts at the encounter rate with O-2. The low values for the secondary reaction barriers on the potential energy surface account for the lack of an observed pressure dependence. Some comparisons are drawn with the reactions of CH2 + O-2 and SiCl2 + O-2.

Time-resolved gas-phase kinetic and quantum chemical studies of the reaction of silylene with nitric oxide

Time-resolved kinetic studies of the reaction of silylene, SiH2, generated by laser flash photolysis of phenylsilane, have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with NO. The reaction was studied in the gas phase over the pressure range 1-100 Torr in SF6 bath gas at five temperatures in the range 299-592 K. The second-order rate constants at 10 Torr fitted the Arrhenius equation log(k/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = (- 11.66 +/- 0.01) + (6.20 +/- 0.10 kJ mol(-1))IRT In 10 The rate constants showed a variation with pressure of a factor of ca. 2 over the available range, almost independent of temperature. The data could not be fitted by RRKM calculations to a simple third body assisted association reaction alone. However, a mechanistic model with an additional (pressure independent) side channel gave a reasonable fit to the data. Ab initio calculations at the G3 level supported a mechanism in which the initial adduct, bent H2SiNO, can ring close to form cyclo-H2SiNO, which is partially collisionally stabilized. In addition, bent H2SiNO can undergo a low barrier isomerization reaction leading, via a sequence of steps, ultimately to dissociation products of which the lowest energy pair are NH2 + SiO. The rate controlling barrier for this latter pathway is only 16 kJ mol(-1) below the energy of SiH2 + NO. This is consistent with the kinetic findings. A particular outcome of this work is that, despite the pressure dependence and the effects of the secondary barrier (in the side reaction), the initial encounter of SiH2 with NO occurs at the collision rate. Thus, silylene can be as reactive with odd electron molecules as with many even electron species. Some comparisons are drawn with the reactions of CH2 + NO and SiCl2 + NO.