The long-term EU budget: size or flexibility? Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/20, November 2012

The EU is in the process of negotiating its 2014-20 financial framework. Failure to reach an agreement would imply a delay in the preparation of the strategic plans each member state puts together to explain how it will use Structural and Cohesion Funds. Even if solutions are found – for example annual renewals of the budget based on the previous year's figures – there will be political and institutional costs. EU leaders have too often and too forcefully advocated the use of the EU budget for growth to be able to drop the idea without consequences. • The overwhelming attention paid to the size of the budget is misplaced. EU leaders should instead aim to make the EU budget more flexible, safeguard it from future political power struggles, and reinforce assessment of the impact of EU funded growth policies. • To improve flexibility a commitment device should be created that places the EU budget above continuous political disagreement. We suggest the creation of a European Growth Fund, on the basis of which the European Commission should be allowed to borrow on capital markets to anticipate pre-allocated EU expenditure, such as Structural and Cohesion Funds. Markets would thus be a factor in EU budget policymaking, with a potentially disciplining effect. Attaching conditionality to this type of disbursement appears legitimate, as capital delivered in this way is a form of assistance.

A Field Evaluation of the Time-of-Detection Method to Estimate Population Size and Density for Aural Avian Point Counts

The time-of-detection method for aural avian point counts is a new method of estimating abundance, allowing for uncertain probability of detection. The method has been specifically designed to allow for variation in singing rates of birds. It involves dividing the time interval of the point count into several subintervals and recording the detection history of the subintervals when each bird sings. The method can be viewed as generating data equivalent to closed capture–recapture information. The method is different from the distance and multiple-observer methods in that it is not required that all the birds sing during the point count. As this method is new and there is some concern as to how well individual birds can be followed, we carried out a field test of the method using simulated known populations of singing birds, using a laptop computer to send signals to audio stations distributed around a point. The system mimics actual aural avian point counts, but also allows us to know the size and spatial distribution of the populations we are sampling. Fifty 8-min point counts (broken into four 2-min intervals) using eight species of birds were simulated. Singing rate of an individual bird of a species was simulated following a Markovian process (singing bouts followed by periods of silence), which we felt was more realistic than a truly random process. The main emphasis of our paper is to compare results from species singing at (high and low) homogenous rates per interval with those singing at (high and low) heterogeneous rates. Population size was estimated accurately for the species simulated, with a high homogeneous probability of singing. Populations of simulated species with lower but homogeneous singing probabilities were somewhat underestimated. Populations of species simulated with heterogeneous singing probabilities were substantially underestimated. Underestimation was caused by both the very low detection probabilities of all distant individuals and by individuals with low singing rates also having very low detection probabilities.

Shifts in resident bird communities associated with cloud forest patch size in Central Veracruz, Mexico

Avian communities in cloud forests have high levels of endemism and are at major risk given the accelerated rate of habitat fragmentation. Nevertheless, the response of these communities to changes in fragment size remains poorly understood. We evaluated species richness, bird community density, community composition, and dominance as indicators of the response to fragment size in a fragmented cloud forest landscape in central Veracruz, Mexico. Medium-sized fragments had statistically higher than expected species richness and more even communities, which may be a reflection of the intermediate disturbance hypothesis, in which medium-sized fragments are exploited by both forest and disturbance-associated species. Bird density also reached higher values in medium-sized fragments, which may indicate a carrying capacity in this habitat. However, large cloud forest fragments had a distinct taxonomic and functional composition, attributable to an increased number of understory insectivore species and canopy frugivores. By comparison, omnivorous species associated with human-altered habitats were more abundant in smaller fragments. Hence, although medium-sized cloud forest fragments had higher species richness and high bird density, large forest tracts maintained a distinct avian community composition, particularly of insectivorous and frugivorous species. Furthermore, the underlying response to fragmentation can only be properly addressed when contrasting several community attributes, such as richness, density, composition, and species dominance. Therefore, cloud forest conservation should aim to preserve the remaining large forest fragments to maintain comprehensive avian communities and avoid local extinctions.

The influence of viscous and latent heating on crystal-rich magma flow in a conduit

The flow dynamics of crystal-rich high-viscosity magma is likely to be strongly influenced by viscous and latent heat release. Viscous heating is observed to play an important role in the dynamics of fluids with temperature-dependent viscosities. The growth of microlite crystals and the accompanying release of latent heat should play a similar role in raising fluid temperatures. Earlier models of viscous heating in magmas have shown the potential for unstable (thermal runaway) flow as described by a Gruntfest number, using an Arrhenius temperature dependence for the viscosity, but have not considered crystal growth or latent heating. We present a theoretical model for magma flow in an axisymmetric conduit and consider both heating effects using Finite Element Method techniques. We consider a constant mass flux in a 1-D infinitesimal conduit segment with isothermal and adiabatic boundary conditions and Newtonian and non-Newtonian magma flow properties. We find that the growth of crystals acts to stabilize the flow field and make the magma less likely to experience a thermal runaway. The additional heating influences crystal growth and can counteract supercooling from degassing-induced crystallization and drive the residual melt composition back towards the liquidus temperature. We illustrate the models with results generated using parameters appropriate for the andesite lava dome-forming eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. These results emphasize the radial variability of the magma. Both viscous and latent heating effects are shown to be capable of playing a significant role in the eruption dynamics of Soufriere Hills Volcano. Latent heating is a factor in the top two kilometres of the conduit and may be responsible for relatively short-term (days) transients. Viscous heating is less restricted spatially, but because thermal runaway requires periods of hundreds of days to be achieved, the process is likely to be interrupted. Our models show that thermal evolution of the conduit walls could lead to an increase in the effective diameter of flow and an increase in flux at constant magma pressure.

Theory and observations of ice particle evolution in cirrus using Doppler radar: evidence for aggregation

Vertically pointing Doppler radar has been used to study the evolution of ice particles as they sediment through a cirrus cloud. The measured Doppler fall speeds, together with radar-derived estimates for the altitude of cloud top, are used to estimate a characteristic fall time tc for the `average' ice particle. The change in radar reflectivity Z is studied as a function of tc, and is found to increase exponentially with fall time. We use the idea of dynamically scaling particle size distributions to show that this behaviour implies exponential growth of the average particle size, and argue that this exponential growth is a signature of ice crystal aggregation.

New insights on growth mechanisms of protein clusters at surfaces: an AFM and simulation study

Despite its relevance to a wide range of technological and fundamental areas, a quantitative understanding of protein surface clustering dynamics is often lacking. In inorganic crystal growth, surface clustering of adatoms is well described by diffusion-aggregation models. In such models, the statistical properties of the aggregate arrays often reveal the molecular scale aggregation processes. We investigate the potential of these theories to reveal hitherto hidden facets of protein clustering by carrying out concomitant observations of lysozyme adsorption onto mica surfaces, using atomic force microscopy. and Monte Carlo simulations of cluster nucleation and growth. We find that lysozyme clusters diffuse across the substrate at a rate that varies inversely with size. This result suggests which molecular scale mechanisms are responsible for the mobility of the proteins on the substrate. In addition the surface diffusion coefficient of the monomer can also be extracted from the comparison between experiments and simulations. While concentrating on a model system of lysozyme-on-mica, this 'proof of concept' study successfully demonstrates the potential of our approach to understand and influence more biomedically applicable protein-substrate couples.

Rational modification of the hierarchy of intermolecular interactions in molecular crystal structures by using tunable halogen bonds

A family of 16 isomolecular salts (3-XpyH)(2)[MX'(4)] (3-XpyH=3-halopyridinium; M=Co, Zn; X=(F), Cl, Br, (I); X'=Cl, Br, I) each containing rigid organic cations and tetrahedral halometallate anions has been prepared and characterized by X-ray single crystal and/or powder diffraction. Their crystal structures reflect the competition and cooperation between non-covalent interactions: N-H center dot center dot center dot X'-M hydrogen bonds, C-X center dot center dot center dot X'-M halogen bonds and pi-pi stacking. The latter are essentially unchanged in strength across the series, but both halogen bonds and hydrogen bonds are modified in strength upon changing the halogens involved. Changing the organic halogen (X) from F to I strengthens the C-X center dot center dot center dot X'-M halogen bonds, whereas an analogous change of the inorganic halogen (X') weakens both halogen bonds and N-H center dot center dot center dot X'-M hydrogen bonds. By so tuning the strength of the putative halogen bonds from repulsive to weak to moderately strong attractive interactions, the hierarchy of the interactions has been modified rationally leading to systematic changes in crystal packing. Three classes of crystal structure are obtained. In type A (C-F center dot center dot center dot X'-M) halogen bonds are absent. The structure is directed by N-H center dot center dot center dot X'-M hydrogen bonds and pi-stacking interactions. In type B structures, involving small organic halogens (X) and large inorganic halogens (X'), long (weak) C-X center dot center dot center dot X'-M interactions are observed with type I halogen-halogen interaction geometries (C-X center dot center dot center dot X' approximate to X center dot center dot center dot X'-M approximate to 155 degrees), but hydrogen bonds still dominate. Thus, minor but quite significant perturbations from the type A structure arise. In type C, involving larger organic halogens (X) and smaller inorganic halogens (X'), stronger halogen bonds are formed with a type II halogen-halogen interaction geometry (C-X center dot center dot center dot X' approximate to 180 degrees; X center dot center dot center dot X'-M approximate to 110 degrees) that is electrostatically attractive. The halogen bonds play a major role alongside hydrogen bonds in directing the type C structures, which as a result are quite different from type A and B.

Testing the influence of small crystals on ice size spectra using Doppler lidar observations

Analysis of the vertical velocity of ice crystals observed with a 1.5micron Doppler lidar from a continuous sample of stratiform ice clouds over 17 months show that the distribution of Doppler velocity varies strongly with temperature, with mean velocities of 0.2m/s at -40C, increasing to 0.6m/s at -10C due to particle growth and broadening of the size spectrum. We examine the likely influence of crystals smaller than 60microns by forward modelling their effect on the area-weighted fall speed, and comparing the results to the lidar observations. The comparison strongly suggests that the concentration of small crystals in most clouds is much lower than measured in-situ by some cloud droplet probes. We argue that the discrepancy is likely due to shattering of large crystals on the probe inlet, and that numerous small particles should not be included in numerical weather and climate model parameterizations.

Mass and size distribution measurement of particulates from a gas turbine combustor using modern mobility analyzer and particle sizer

SMPS and DMS500 analysers were used to measure particulate size distributions in the exhaust of a fully annular aero gas turbine engine at two operating conditions to compare and analyse sources of discrepancy. A number of different dilution ratio values were utilised for the comparative analysis, and a Dekati hot diluter operating at a temperature of 623°K was also utilised to remove volatile PM prior to measurements being made. Additional work focused on observing the effect of varying the sample line temperatures to ascertain the impact. Explanations are offered for most of the trends observed, although a new, repeatable event identified in the range from 417°K to 423°K – where there was a three order of magnitude increase in the nucleation mode of the sample – requires further study.

Does reactive surface area depend on grain size? Results from pH 3, 25 circle C far-from-equilibrium flow-through dissolution experiments on anorthite and biotite

Laboratory determined mineral weathering rates need to be normalised to allow their extrapolation to natural systems. The principle normalisation terms used in the literature are mass, and geometric- and BET specific surface area (SSA). The purpose of this study was to determine how dissolution rates normalised to these terms vary with grain size. Different size fractions of anorthite and biotite ranging from 180-150 to 20-10 mu m were dissolved in pH 3, HCl at 25 degrees C in flow through reactors under far from equilibrium conditions. Steady state dissolution rates after 5376 h (anorthite) and 4992 h (biotite) were calculated from Si concentrations and were normalised to initial- and final- mass and geometric-, geometric edge- (biotite), and BET SSA. For anorthite, rates normalised to initial- and final-BET SSA ranged from 0.33 to 2.77 X 10(-10) mol(feldspar) m(-2) s(-1), rates normalised to initial- and final-geometric SSA ranged from 5.74 to 8.88 X 10(-10) mol(feldspar) m(-2) s(-1) and rates normalised to initial- and final-mass ranged from 0.11 to 1.65 mol(feldspar) g(-1) s(-1). For biotite, rates normalised to initial- and final-BET SSA ranged from 1.02 to 2.03 X 10(-12) mol(biotite) m(-2) s(-1), rates normalised to initial- and final-geometric SSA ranged from 3.26 to 16.21 X 10(-12) mol(biotite) m(-2) s(-1), rates normalised to initial- and final-geometric edge SSA ranged from 59.46 to 111.32 x 10(-12) mol(biotite) m(-2) s(-1) and rates normalised to initial- and final-mass ranged from 0.81 to 6.93 X 10(-12) mol(biotite) g(-1) s(-1). For all normalising terms rates varied significantly (p <= 0.05) with grain size. The normalising terms which gave least variation in dissolution rate between grain sizes for anorthite were initial BET SSA and initial- and final-geometric SSA. This is consistent with: (1) dissolution being dominated by the slower dissolving but area dominant non-etched surfaces of the grains and, (2) the walls of etch pits and other dissolution features being relatively unreactive. These steady state normalised dissolution rates are likely to be constant with time. Normalisation to final BET SSA did not give constant ratios across grain size due to a non-uniform distribution of dissolution features. After dissolution coarser grains had a greater density of dissolution features with BET-measurable but unreactive wall surface area than the finer grains. The normalising term which gave the least variation in dissolution rates between grain sizes for biotite was initial BET SSA. Initial- and final-geometric edge SSA and final BET SSA gave the next least varied rates. The basal surfaces dissolved sufficiently rapidly to influence bulk dissolution rate and prevent geometric edge SSA normalised dissolution rates showing the least variation. Simple modelling indicated that biotite grain edges dissolved 71-132 times faster than basal surfaces. In this experiment, initial BET SSA best integrated the different areas and reactivities of the edge and basal surfaces of biotite. Steady state dissolution rates are likely to vary with time as dissolution alters the ratio of edge to basal surface area. Therefore they would be more properly termed pseudo-steady state rates, only appearing constant because the time period over which they were measured (1512 h) was less than the time period over wich they would change significantly. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Problems with determining the particle size distribution of chalk soil and some of their implications

Particle size distribution (psd) is one of the most important features of the soil because it affects many of its other properties, and it determines how soil should be managed. To understand the properties of chalk soil, psd analyses should be based on the original material (including carbonates), and not just the acid-resistant fraction. Laser-based methods rather than traditional sedimentation methods are being used increasingly to determine particle size to reduce the cost of analysis. We give an overview of both approaches and the problems associated with them for analyzing the psd of chalk soil. In particular, we show that it is not appropriate to use the widely adopted 8 pm boundary between the clay and silt size fractions for samples determined by laser to estimate proportions of these size fractions that are equivalent to those based on sedimentation. We present data from field and national-scale surveys of soil derived from chalk in England. Results from both types of survey showed that laser methods tend to over-estimate the clay-size fraction compared to sedimentation for the 8 mu m clay/silt boundary, and we suggest reasons for this. For soil derived from chalk, either the sedimentation methods need to be modified or it would be more appropriate to use a 4 pm threshold as an interim solution for laser methods. Correlations between the proportions of sand- and clay-sized fractions, and other properties such as organic matter and volumetric water content, were the opposite of what one would expect for soil dominated by silicate minerals. For water content, this appeared to be due to the predominance of porous, chalk fragments in the sand-sized fraction rather than quartz grains, and the abundance of fine (<2 mu m) calcite crystals rather than phyllosilicates in the clay-sized fraction. This was confirmed by scanning electron microscope (SEM) analyses. "Of all the rocks with which 1 am acquainted, there is none whose formation seems to tax the ingenuity of theorists so severely, as the chalk, in whatever respect we may think fit to consider it". Thomas Allan, FRS Edinburgh 1823, Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh. (C) 2009 Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.