943 resultados para CONFLICT-TACTICS-SCALES


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We present the first multi-event study of the spatial and temporal structuring of the aurora to provide statistical evidence of the near-Earth plasma instability which causes the substorm onset arc. Using data from ground-based auroral imagers, we study repeatable signatures of along-arc auroral beads, which are thought to represent the ionospheric projection of magnetospheric instability in the near-Earth plasma sheet. We show that the growth and spatial scales of these wave-like fluctuations are similar across multiple events, indicating that each sudden auroral brightening has a common explanation. We find statistically that growth rates for auroral beads peak at low wavenumber with the most unstable spatial scales mapping to an azimuthal wavelength λ≈1700 − 2500 km in the equatorial magnetosphere at around 9-12 RE. We compare growth rates and spatial scales with a range of theoretical predictions of magnetotail instabilities, including the cross-field current instability and the shear-flow ballooning instability. We conclude that, although the cross-field current instability can generate similar magnitude of growth rates, the range of unstable wavenumbers indicates that the shear-flow ballooning instability is the most likely explanation for our observations.

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Weeds tend to aggregate in patches within fields and there is evidence that this is partly owing to variation in soil properties. Because the processes driving soil heterogeneity operate at different scales, the strength of the relationships between soil properties and weed density would also be expected to be scale-dependent. Quantifying these effects of scale on weed patch dynamics is essential to guide the design of discrete sampling protocols for mapping weed distribution. We have developed a general method that uses novel within-field nested sampling and residual maximum likelihood (REML) estimation to explore scale-dependent relationships between weeds and soil properties. We have validated the method using a case study of Alopecurus myosuroides in winter wheat. Using REML, we partitioned the variance and covariance into scale-specific components and estimated the correlations between the weed counts and soil properties at each scale. We used variograms to quantify the spatial structure in the data and to map variables by kriging. Our methodology successfully captured the effect of scale on a number of edaphic drivers of weed patchiness. The overall Pearson correlations between A. myosuroides and soil organic matter and clay content were weak and masked the stronger correlations at >50 m. Knowing how the variance was partitioned across the spatial scales we optimized the sampling design to focus sampling effort at those scales that contributed most to the total variance. The methods have the potential to guide patch spraying of weeds by identifying areas of the field that are vulnerable to weed establishment.

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Civil wars are the most common type of large scale violent conflict. They are long, brutal and continue to harm societies long after the shooting stops. Post-conflict countries face extraordinary challenges with respect to development and security. In this paper we examine how countries can recover economically from these devastating conflicts and how international interventions can help to build lasting peace. We revisit the aid and growth debate and confirm that aid does not increase growth in general. However, we find that countries experience increased growth after the end of the war and that aid helps to make the most of this peace dividend. However, aid is only growth enhancing when the violence has stopped, in violent post-war societies aid has no growth enhancing effect. We also find that good governance is robustly correlated with growth, however we cannot confirm that aid increases growth conditional on good policies. We examine various aspects of aid and governance by disaggregating the aid and governance variables. Our analysis does not provide a clear picture of which types of aid and policy should be prioritized. We find little evidence for a growth enhancing effect of UN missions and suggest that case studies may provide better insight into the relationship between security guarantees and economic stabilization.

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Azoles and Succinate Dehydrogenase Inhibitors (SDHIs) are the main fungicides available for septoria tritici blotch control, causal agent Zymoseptoria tritici. Decline in azole sensitivity, in combination with European legislation, poses a threat to wheat production in Ireland. Azole fungicides select CYP51 mutations differentially; it was hypothesised that using combinations of azoles could be an effective anti-resistance tool. Naturally inoculated field experiments were carried out in order to understand the impacts of using combinations of azoles, epoxiconazole and metconazole, on azole sensitivity. Approximately 3700 isolates were isolated and their sensitivity to both azoles analysed. Findings showed that limiting the number of applications, by alternating each fungicide, slowed selection for reduced azole sensitivity. Limiting azole use by reducing doses did not reduce selection for decreased azole sensitivity. Although not complete, cross-resistance was observed between the two azoles, which will lead to general reduction in azole sensitivity. A sub-selection of isolates from each treatment at each location were analysed for changes in the CYP51 gene. Sequence analysis identified 49 combinations of mutations in the CYP51 gene, and three different inserts in the CYP51 promoter. Intragenic recombination also featured in these populations. Baseline studies of five new SDHIs were carried out on 209 naturally infected, non-SDHI-treated isolates. With the exception of fluopyram, cross-resistance was apparent between the SDHIs. Analysis of 2300 isolates found that when compared to the solo products, mixing the SDHI isopyrazam and the azole epoxiconazole increased epoxiconazole sensitivity, but had no apparent effect on isopyrazam sensitivity. SDHI resistance-conferring mutations were absent in the baseline and experimental isolates. As long as azoles are used, Z. tritici populations will continue to evolve towards resistance. Combining different modes-of-action, SDHIs and multi-sites, with azoles will relieve some of that selective pressure. To get the best out of available fungicides, they should be used in combination with host resistance and good crop management practices.

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Female aggregation and male territoriality are considered to be hallmarks of polygynous mating systems. The development of genetic parentage assignment has called into question the accuracy of behavioral traits in predicting true mating systems. In this study we use 14 microsatellite markers to explore the mating system of one of the most behaviorally polygynous species, the California sea lion (Zalophus californianus). We sampled a total of 158 female-pup pairs and 99 territorial males across two breeding rookeries (San Jorge and Los Islotes) in the Gulf of California, Mexico. Fathers could be identified for 30% of pups sampled at San Jorge across three breeding seasons and 15% of sampled pups at Los Islotes across two breeding seasons. Analysis of paternal relatedness between the pups for which no fathers were identified (sampled over four breeding seasons at San Jorge and two at Los Islotes) revealed that few pups were likely to share a father. Thirty-one percent of the sampled males on San Jorge and 15% of the sampled males on Los Islotes were assigned at least one paternity. With one exception, no male was identified as the father of more than two pups. Furthermore, at Los Islotes rookery there were significantly fewer pups assigned paternity than expected given the pool of sampled males (p<0.0001). Overall, we found considerably lower variation in male reproductive success than expected in a species that exhibits behavior associated with strongly polygynous mating. Low variation in male reproductive success may result from heightened mobility among receptive females in the Gulf of California, which reduces the ability of males to monopolize groups of females. Our results raise important questions regarding the adaptive role of territoriality and the potential for alternative mating tactics in this species.

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This contribution is about the protection of detained persons in international armed conflict. In particular, it compares how the relationship between IHL and IHRL is understood depending on whether one is speaking of the substantive or the procedural rules of protection for detainees. It will be suggested that, whereas the relationship between IHL and IHRL raises fewer problems when speaking of substantive rules, the situation is very different when speaking of procedural rules.

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This review essay engages with Sandesh Sivakumaran’s book The Law of Non-International Armed Conflict, exploring its significance both in international humanitarian law and international law more generally.

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In this paper, the teleconnections from the tropical Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region from inter-annual to centennial time scales will be reviewed. Identified teleconnections and hypotheses on mechanisms at work are reviewed and further explored in a century-long pacemaker coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation ensemble. There is a substantial impact of the tropical Atlantic on the Pacific region at inter-annual time scales. An Atlantic Niño (Niña) event leads to rising (sinking) motion in the Atlantic region, which is compensated by sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific. The sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific induces easterly (westerly) surface wind anomalies just to the west, which alter the thermocline. These perturbations propagate eastward as upwelling (downwelling) Kelvin-waves, where they increase the probability for a La Niña (El Niño) event. Moreover, tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are also able to lead La Niña/El Niño development. At multidecadal time scales, a positive (negative) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation leads to a cooling (warming) of the eastern Pacific and a warming (cooling) of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The physical mechanism for this impact is similar to that at inter-annual time scales. At centennial time scales, the Atlantic warming induces a substantial reduction of the eastern Pacific warming even under CO2 increase and to a strong subsurface cooling.

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Ecological and biogeochemical processes in lakes are strongly dependent upon water temperature. Long-term surface warming of many lakes is unequivocal, but little is known about the comparative magnitude of temperature variation at diel timescales, due to a lack of appropriately resolved data. Here we quantify the pattern and magnitude of diel temperature variability of surface waters using high-frequency data from 100 lakes. We show that the near-surface diel temperature range can be substantial in summer relative to long-term change and, for lakes smaller than 3 km2, increases sharply and predictably with decreasing lake area. Most small lakes included in this study experience average summer diel ranges in their near-surface temperatures of between 4 and 7°C. Large diel temperature fluctuations in the majority of lakes undoubtedly influence their structure, function and role in biogeochemical cycles, but the full implications remain largely unexplored.

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It is argued that existing polar prediction systems do not yet meet users’ needs; and possible ways forward in advancing prediction capacity in polar regions and beyond are outlined. The polar regions have been attracting more and more attention in recent years, fuelled by the perceptible impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Polar climate change provides new opportunities, such as shorter shipping routes between Europe and East Asia, but also new risks such as the potential for industrial accidents or emergencies in ice-covered seas. Here, it is argued that environmental prediction systems for the polar regions are less developed than elsewhere. There are many reasons for this situation, including the polar regions being (historically) lower priority, with less in situ observations, and with numerous local physical processes that are less well-represented by models. By contrasting the relative importance of different physical processes in polar and lower latitudes, the need for a dedicated polar prediction effort is illustrated. Research priorities are identified that will help to advance environmental polar prediction capabilities. Examples include an improvement of the polar observing system; the use of coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean models, even for short-term prediction; and insight into polar-lower latitude linkages and their role for forecasting. Given the enormity of some of the challenges ahead, in a harsh and remote environment such as the polar regions, it is argued that rapid progress will only be possible with a coordinated international effort. More specifically, it is proposed to hold a Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) from mid-2017 to mid-2019 in which the international research and operational forecasting community will work together with stakeholders in a period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and educational activities.

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Intense male-male competition for females may drive the evolution of male morphological dimorphism, which is frequently associated with alternative mating tactics. Using modern techniques for the detection of discontinuous allometries, we describe male dimorphism in the Neotropical harvestman Longiperna concolor, the males of which use their elongated, sexually dimorphic legs IV in fights for the possession of territories where females lay eggs. We also tested three predictions related to the existence of alternative mating tactics: (1) if individuals with relatively longer legs IV (majors) are more likely to monopolize access to reproductive resources, they are expected to remain close to stable groups of females more than individuals with relatively shorter legs IV (minors) do; (2) if minors achieve fertilization by moving between territories, they are expected to be less faithful to specific sites; and (3) majors should be observed in aggressive interactions more often. We individually marked all the individuals from a population of Longiperna during the reproductive season and recorded the location of each sighting for males and females as well as the identity of males involved in fights. Majors were more likely to have harems, and large majors were even more likely to do so. Majors were more philopatric and all males involved in fights belonged to this morph. These results strongly suggest that the mating tactic of the majors is based on resource defense whereas that of the minors probably relies on sneaking into the territories of the majors and furtively copulating with females.

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In arthropods, most cases of morphological dimorphism within males are the result of a conditional evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) with status-dependent tactics. In conditionally male-dimorphic species, the status` distributions of male morphs often overlap, and the environmentally cued threshold model (ET) states that the degree of overlap depends on the genetic variation in the distribution of the switchpoints that determine which morph is expressed in each value of status. Here we describe male dimorphism and alternative mating behaviors in the harvestman Serracutisoma proximum. Majors express elongated second legs and use them in territorial fights; minors possess short second legs and do not fight, but rather sneak into majors` territories and copulate with egg-guarding females. The static allometry of second legs reveals that major phenotype expression depends on body size (status), and that the switchpoint underlying the dimorphism presents a large amount of genetic variation in the population, which probably results from weak selective pressure on this trait. With a mark-recapture study, we show that major phenotype expression does not result in survival costs, which is consistent with our hypothesis that there is weak selection on the switchpoint. Finally, we demonstrate that switchpoint is independent of status distribution. In conclusion, our data support the ET model prediction that the genetic correlation between status and switchpoint is low, allowing the status distribution to evolve or to fluctuate seasonally, without any effect on the position of the mean switchpoint.