Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: neural networks vs. time series models

The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more accurate forecasts of tourismdemand at the destination level due to the constant growth of world tourism, has lead us to evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time seriesmethods at a regional level. Seasonality and volatility are important features of tourism data, which makes it a particularly favourable context in which to compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official statistical data of overnight stays and tourist arrivals fromall the different countries of origin to Catalonia from 2001 to 2009 is used in the study. When comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques for different time horizons, autoregressive integrated moving average models outperform self-exciting threshold autoregressions and artificial neural network models, especially for shorter horizons. These results suggest that the there is a trade-off between the degree of pre-processing and the accuracy of the forecasts obtained with neural networks, which are more suitable in the presence of nonlinearity in the data. In spite of the significant differences between countries, which can be explained by different patterns of consumer behaviour,we also find that forecasts of tourist arrivals aremore accurate than forecasts of overnight stays.

Cellular mechanisms underlying the regulation of dendritic development by hepatocyte growth factor.

Acquisition of a mature dendritic morphology is critical for neural information processing. In particular, hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) controls dendritic arborization during brain development. However, the cellular mechanisms underlying the effects of HGF on dendritic growth remain elusive. Here, we show that HGF increases dendritic length and branching of rat cortical neurons through activation of the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) signaling pathway. Activation of MAPK by HGF leads to the rapid and transient phosphorylation of cAMP response element-binding protein (CREB), a key step necessary for the control of dendritic development by HGF. In addition to CREB phosphorylation, regulation of dendritic growth by HGF requires the interaction between CREB and CREB-regulated transcription coactivator 1 (CRTC1), as expression of a mutated form of CREB unable to bind CRTC1 completely abolished the effects of HGF on dendritic morphology. Treatment of cortical neurons with HGF in combination with brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), a member of the neurotrophin family that regulates dendritic development via similar mechanisms, showed additive effects on MAPK activation, CREB phosphorylation and dendritic growth. Collectively, these results support the conclusion that regulation of cortical dendritic morphology by HGF is mediated by activation of the MAPK pathway, phosphorylation of CREB and interaction of CREB with CRTC1.

Networking of differentially expressed genes in human cancer cells resistant to methotrexate

BACKGROUND: The need for an integrated view of data obtained from high-throughput technologies gave rise to network analyses. These are especially useful to rationalize how external perturbations propagate through the expression of genes. To address this issue in the case of drug resistance, we constructed biological association networks of genes differentially expressed in cell lines resistant to methotrexate (MTX). METHODS: Seven cell lines representative of different types of cancer, including colon cancer (HT29 and Caco2), breast cancer (MCF-7 and MDA-MB-468), pancreatic cancer (MIA PaCa-2), erythroblastic leukemia (K562) and osteosarcoma (Saos-2), were used. The differential expression pattern between sensitive and MTX-resistant cells was determined by whole human genome microarrays and analyzed with the GeneSpring GX software package. Genes deregulated in common between the different cancer cell lines served to generate biological association networks using the Pathway Architect software. RESULTS: Dikkopf homolog-1 (DKK1) is a highly interconnected node in the network generated with genes in common between the two colon cancer cell lines, and functional validations of this target using small interfering RNAs (siRNAs) showed a chemosensitization toward MTX. Members of the UDP-glucuronosyltransferase 1A (UGT1A) family formed a network of genes differentially expressed in the two breast cancer cell lines. siRNA treatment against UGT1A also showed an increase in MTX sensitivity. Eukaryotic translation elongation factor 1 alpha 1 (EEF1A1) was overexpressed among the pancreatic cancer, leukemia and osteosarcoma cell lines, and siRNA treatment against EEF1A1 produced a chemosensitization toward MTX. CONCLUSIONS: Biological association networks identified DKK1, UGT1As and EEF1A1 as important gene nodes in MTX-resistance. Treatments using siRNA technology against these three genes showed chemosensitization toward MTX.

Chemical chaperones regulate molecular chaperones in vitro and in cells under combined salt and heat stresses.

Salt and heat stresses, which are often combined in nature, induce complementing defense mechanisms. Organisms adapt to high external salinity by accumulating small organic compounds known as osmolytes, which equilibrate cellular osmotic pressure. Osmolytes can also act as "chemical chaperones" by increasing the stability of native proteins and assisting refolding of unfolded polypeptides. Adaptation to heat stress depends on the expression of heat-shock proteins, many of which are molecular chaperones, that prevent protein aggregation, disassemble protein aggregates, and assist protein refolding. We show here that Escherichia coli cells preadapted to high salinity contain increased levels of glycine betaine that prevent protein aggregation under thermal stress. After heat shock, the aggregated proteins, which escaped protection, were disaggregated in salt-adapted cells as efficiently as in low salt. Here we address the effects of four common osmolytes on chaperone activity in vitro. Systematic dose responses of glycine betaine, glycerol, proline, and trehalose revealed a regulatory effect on the folding activities of individual and combinations of chaperones GroEL, DnaK, and ClpB. With the exception of trehalose, low physiological concentrations of proline, glycerol, and especially glycine betaine activated the molecular chaperones, likely by assisting local folding in chaperone-bound polypeptides and stabilizing the native end product of the reaction. High osmolyte concentrations, especially trehalose, strongly inhibited DnaK-dependent chaperone networks, such as DnaK+GroEL and DnaK+ClpB, likely because high viscosity affects dynamic interactions between chaperones and folding substrates and stabilizes protein aggregates. Thus, during combined salt and heat stresses, cells can specifically control protein stability and chaperone-mediated disaggregation and refolding by modulating the intracellular levels of different osmolytes.

Genomic determinants of the efficiency of internal ribosomal entry sites of viral and cellular origin

Variation in cellular gene expression levels has been shown to be inherited. Expression is controlled at transcriptional and post-transcriptional levels. Internal ribosome entry sites (IRES) are used by viruses to bypass inhibition of cap-dependent translation, and by eukaryotic cells to control translation under conditions when protein synthesis is inhibited. We aimed at identifying genomic determinants of variability in IRES-mediated translation of viral [Encephalomyocarditis virus (EMCV)] and cellular IRES [X-linked inhibitor-of-apoptosis (XIAP) and c-myc]. Bicistronic lentiviral constructs expressing two fluorescent reporters were used to transduce laboratory and B lymphoblastoid cell lines [15 CEPH pedigrees (n = 205) and 50 unrelated individuals]. IRES efficiency varied according to cell type and among individuals. Control of IRES activity has a significant genetic component (h(2) of 0.47 and 0.36 for EMCV and XIAP, respectively). Quantitative linkage analysis identified a suggestive locus (LOD 2.35) on chromosome 18q21.2, and genome-wide association analysis revealed of a cluster of SNPs on chromosome 3, intronic to the FHIT gene, marginally associated (P = 5.9E-7) with XIAP IRES function. This study illustrates the in vitro generation of intermediate phenotypes by using cell lines for the evaluation of genetic determinants of control of elements such as IRES.

Interplays between mouse mammary tumor virus and the cellular and humoral immune response.

Mouse mammary tumor virus has developed strategies to exploit the immune response. It requires vigorous immune stimulation to achieve efficient infection. The infected antigen-presenting cells present a viral superantigen on the cell surface which stimulates strong CD4-mediated T-cell help but CD8 T-cell responses are undetectable. Despite the high frequency of superantigen-reactive T cells, the superantigen-induced immune response is comparable to classical antigen responses in terms of T-cell priming, T-cell-B-cell collaboration as well as follicular and extra-follicular B-cell differentiation. Induction of systemic anergy is observed, similar to classical antigen responses where antigen is administered systemically but does not influence the role of the superantigen-reactive T cells in the maintenance of the chronic germinal center reaction. So far we have been unable to detect a cytotoxic T-cell response to mouse mammary tumor virus peptide antigens or to the superantigen. This might yet represent another step in the viral infection strategy.

Multimodal MRI analysis of structural and functional networks in the human brain : application to two clinical studies : driving abilities under THC intoxication and early white matter changes in FXTAS

Les approches multimodales dans l'imagerie cérébrale non invasive sont de plus en plus considérées comme un outil indispensable pour la compréhension des différents aspects de la structure et de la fonction cérébrale. Grâce aux progrès des techniques d'acquisition des images de Resonance Magnetique et aux nouveaux outils pour le traitement des données, il est désormais possible de mesurer plusieurs paramètres sensibles aux différentes caractéristiques des tissues cérébraux. Ces progrès permettent, par exemple, d'étudier les substrats anatomiques qui sont à la base des processus cognitifs ou de discerner au niveau purement structurel les phénomènes dégénératifs et développementaux. Cette thèse met en évidence l'importance de l'utilisation d'une approche multimodale pour étudier les différents aspects de la dynamique cérébrale grâce à l'application de cette approche à deux études cliniques: l'évaluation structurelle et fonctionnelle des effets aigus du cannabis fumé chez des consommateurs réguliers et occasionnels, et l'évaluation de l'intégrité de la substance grise et blanche chez des jeunes porteurs de la prémutations du gène FMR1 à risque de développer le FXTAS (Fragile-X Tremor Ataxia Syndrome). Nous avons montré que chez les fumeurs occasionnels de cannabis, même à faible concentration du principal composant psychoactif (THC) dans le sang, la performance lors d'une tâche visuo-motrice est fortement diminuée, et qu'il y a des changements dans l'activité des trois réseaux cérébraux impliqués dans les processus cognitifs: le réseau de saillance, le réseau du contrôle exécutif, et le réseau actif par défaut (Default Mode). Les sujets ne sont pas en mesure de saisir les saillances dans l'environnement et de focaliser leur attention sur la tâche. L'augmentation de la réponse hémodynamique dans le cortex cingulaire antérieur suggère une augmentation de l'activité introspective. Une investigation des ef¬fets au niveau cérébral d'une exposition prolongée au cannabis, montre des changements persistants de la substance grise dans les régions associées à la mémoire et au traitement des émotions. Le niveau d'atrophie dans ces structures corrèle avec la consommation de cannabis au cours des trois mois précédant l'étude. Dans la deuxième étude, nous démontrons des altérations structurelles des décennies avant l'apparition du syndrome FXTAS chez des sujets jeunes, asymptomatiques, et porteurs de la prémutation du gène FMR1. Les modifications trouvées peuvent être liées à deux mécanismes différents. Les altérations dans le réseau moteur du cervelet et dans la fimbria de l'hippocampe, suggèrent un effet développemental de la prémutation. Elles incluent aussi une atrophie de la substance grise du lobule VI du cervelet et l'altération des propriétés tissulaires de la substance blanche des projections afférentes correspondantes aux pédoncules cérébelleux moyens. Les lésions diffuses de la substance blanche cérébrale peu¬vent être un marquer précoce du développement de la maladie, car elles sont liées à un phénomène dégénératif qui précède l'apparition des symptômes du FXTAS. - Multimodal brain imaging is becoming a leading tool for understanding different aspects of brain structure and function. Thanks to the advances in Magnetic Resonance imaging (MRI) acquisition schemes and data processing techniques, it is now possible to measure different parameters sensitive to different tissue characteristics. This allows for example to investigate anatomical substrates underlying cognitive processing, or to disentangle, at a pure structural level degeneration and developmental processes. This thesis highlights the importance of using a multimodal approach for investigating different aspects of brain dynamics by applying this approach to two clinical studies: functional and structural assessment of the acute effects of cannabis smoking in regular and occasional users, and grey and white matter assessment in young FMR1 premutation carriers at risk of developing FXTAS. We demonstrate that in occasional smokers cannabis smoking, even at low concentration of the main psychoactive component (THC) in the blood, strongly decrease subjects' performance on a visuo-motor tracking task, and globally alters the activity of the three brain networks involved in cognitive processing: the Salience, the Control Executive, and the Default Mode networks. Subjects are unable to capture saliences in the environment and to orient attention to the task; the increase in Hemodynamic Response in the Anterior Cingulate Cortex suggests an increase in self-oriented mental activity. A further investigation on long term exposure to cannabis, shows a persistent grey matter modification in brain regions associated with memory and affective processing. The degree of atrophy in these structures also correlates with the estimation of drug use in the three months prior the participation to the study. In the second study we demonstrate structural changes in young asymptomatic premutation carriers decades before the onset of FXTAS that might be related to two different mechanisms. Alteration of the cerebellar motor network and of the hippocampal fimbria/ fornix, may reflect a potential neurodevelopmental effect of the premutation. These include grey matter atrophy in lobule VI and modification of white matter tissue property in the corresponding afferent projections through the Middle Cerebellar Peduncles. Diffuse hemispheric white matter lesions that seem to appear closer to the onset of FXTAS and be related to a neurodegenerative phenomenon may mark the imminent onset of FXTAS.

Crosstalk of Notch with p53 and p63 in cancer growth control.

Understanding the complexity of cancer depends on an elucidation of the underlying regulatory networks, at the cellular and intercellular levels and in their temporal dimension. This Opinion article focuses on the multilevel crosstalk between the Notch pathway and the p53 and p63 pathways. These two coordinated signalling modules are at the interface of external damaging signals and control of stem cell potential and differentiation. Positive or negative reciprocal regulation of the two pathways can vary with cell type and cancer stage. Therefore, selective or combined targeting of the two pathways could improve the efficacy and reduce the toxicity of cancer therapies.

Study of the incorporation and the anti-tumour efficacy of radio-iododeoxyuridine according to the cellular cycle and in presence of synthesis inhibitor of thymidine

Résumé La iododeoxyuridine (IdUrd), une fois marqué au 123I ou au 125I, est un agent potentiel pour des thérapies par rayonnements Auger. Cependant, des limitations restreignent son incorporation dans l'ADN. Afin d'augmenter celle-ci, différents groupes ont étudié la fluorodeoxyuridine (FdUrd), qui favorise l'incorporation d'analogue de la thymidine, sans toutefois parvenir à une toxicité associé plus importante. Dans notre approche, 3 lignées cellulaires de glioblastomes humains et une lignée de cancer ovarien ont été utilisées. Nous avons observé, 16 à 24 h après un court pré-traitement à la FdUrd, un fort pourcentage de cellules s'accumulant en phase S. Plus qu'une accumulation, c'était une synchronisation des cellules, celles-ci restant capables d'incorporer la radio-IdIrd et repartant dans le cycle cellulaire. De plus, ces cellules accumulées après un pré-traitement à la FdUrd étaient plus radio-sensibles. Après le même intervalle de 16 à 24 h suivant la FdUrd, les 4 lignées cellulaires ont incorporé des taux plus élevés de radio-IdUrd que sans ce prétraitement. Une corrélation temporelle entre l'accumulation des cellules en phase S et la forte incorporation de radio-IdUrd a ainsi été révélée 16 à 24 h après pré-traitement à la FdUrd. Les expériences de traitement par rayonnements Auger sur les cellules accumulées en phase S ont montré une augmentation significative de l'efficacité thérapeutique de 125I-IdUrd comparé aux cellules non prétraitées à la FdUrd. Une première estimation a permis de déterminer que 100 désintégrations de 125I par cellules étant nécessaires afin d'atteindre l'efficacité thérapeutique. De plus, p53 semble jouer un rôle dans l'induction directe de mort cellulaire après des traitements par rayonnements Auger, comme indiqué par les mesures par FACS d'apoptose et de nécrose 24 et 48 h après le traitement. Concernant les expériences in vivo, nous avons observé une incorporation marquée de la radio-IdUrd dans l'ADN après un pré-traitement à la FdUrd dans un model de carcinomatose ovarienne péritonéale. Une augmentation encore plus importante a été observée après injection intra-tumorale dans des transplants sous-cutanés de glioblastomes sur des souris nues. Ces modèles pourraient être utilisés pour de plus amples études de diffusion de radio-IdUrd et de thérapie par rayonnement Auger. En conclusion, ce travail montre une première application réussie de la FdUrd afin d'accroître l'efficacité de la radio-IdUrd par traitements aux rayonnements Auger. La synchronisation des cellules en phase S combinée avec la forte incorporation de radio-IdUrd dans l'ADN différées après un pré-traitement à la FdUrd ont montré le gain thérapeutique attendu in vitro. De plus, des études in vivo sont tout indiquées après les observations encourageantes d'incorporation de radio-IdUrd dans les models de transplants sous-cutanés de glioblastomes et de tumeurs péritonéales ovariennes. Summary Iododeoxyuridine (IdUrd), labelled with 123I or 125I, could be a potential Auger radiation therapy agent. However, limitations restrict its DNA incorporation in proliferating cells. Therefore, fluorodeoxyuridine (FdUrd), which favours incorporation of thymidine analogues, has been studied by different groups in order to increase radio-IdUrd DNA incorporation, however therapeutic efficacy increase could not be reached. In our approach, 3 human glioblastoma cell lines with different p53 expression and one ovarian cancer line were pre-treated with various FdUrd conditions. We observed a high percentage of cells accumulating in early S phase 16 to 24 h after a short and non-toxic FdUrd pre-treatment. More than an accumulation, this was a synchronization, cells remaining able to incorporate radio-IdUrd and re-entering the cell cycle. Furthermore, the S phase accumulated cells post FdUrd pre-treatment were more radiosensitive. After the same delay of 16 to 24 h post FdUrd pre-treatment, the 4 cell lines were incorporating higher rates of radio-IdUrd compared with untreated cells. A time correlation between S phase accumulation and high radio-IdUrd incorporation was therefore revealed 16 to 24 h post FdUrd pre-treatment. Auger radiation treatment experiments performed on S phase enriched cells showed a significant increase of killing efficacy of 125I-IdUrd compared with cells not pre-treated with FdUrd. A first estimation indicates further that about 100 125I decays were required to reach killing in the targeted cells. Moreover, p53 might play a role on the direct induction of cell death pathways after Auger radiation treatments, as indicated by differential apoptosis and necrosis induction measured by FACS 24 and 48 h after treatment initiation. Concerning in vivo results, we observed a marked DNA incorporation increase of radio-IdUrd after FdUrd pre-treatment in peritoneal carcinomatosis in SCID mice. Even higher incorporation increase was observed after intra-tumoural injection of radio-IdUrd in subcutaneous glioblastoma transplants in nude mice. These tumour models might be further useful for diffusion of radio-IdUrd and Auger radiation therapy studies. In conclusion, these data show a first successful application of thymidine synthesis inhibition able to increase the efficacy of radio-IdUrd Auger radiation treatment. The S phase synchronization combined with a high percentage DNA incorporation of radio-IdUrd delayed post FdUrd pre-treatment provided the expected therapeutic gain in vitro. Further in vivo studies are indicated after the observations of encouraging radio-IdUrd uptake experiments in glioblastoma subcutaneous xenografts and in an ovarian peritoneal carcinomatosis model.

The blood-brain barrier: cellular basis.

Perfusion experiments with horseradish peroxidase have established that the morphological substrate of the blood-brain barrier is represented by microvascular endothelial cells. They are characterized by complexly arranged tight junctions and a very low rate of transcytotic vesicular transport. They express transport enzymes, carrier systems and brain endothelial cell-specific molecules of unknown function not expressed by any other endothelial cell population. These blood-brain barrier properties are not intrinsic to these cells but are inducible by the surrounding brain tissue. Type I astrocytes injected into the anterior eye chamber of the rat or onto the chick chorioallantoic membrane are able to induce a host-derived angiogenesis and some blood-brain barrier properties in endothelial cells of non-neural origin. Recently we have shown that this cellular interaction is due to the secretion of a soluble astrocyte derived factor(s). Astrocytes are also implicated in the maintenance, functional regulation and the repair of the blood-brain barrier. Complex interactions between other constituents of the microenvironment surrounding the endothelial cells, such as the basement membrane, pericytes, nerve endings, microglial cells and the extracellular fluid, take place and are required for the proper functioning of the blood-brain barrier, which in addition is regionally different as reflected by endothelial cell heterogeneity.

The Possibilities of IP Networks in Strategic Partnership Development

This study focuses on the status of using the Internet in partnership development. The aim is to find out howthe parties in partnership can benefit from the available data networks (the Internet, Intranet and Extranet). The study also explains what the typical practices at the moment are and what features might be exploitable in the future. The research problem is to find out whether there are any possibilities to utilize the web more than is done at the moment. This study is a preliminary study for a more extensive study on the topic 'Information Technology in Business Relationships'.

On the differential evolution algorithm and its appliation to training radial basis function networks

The parameter setting of a differential evolution algorithm must meet several requirements: efficiency, effectiveness, and reliability. Problems vary. The solution of a particular problem can be represented in different ways. An algorithm most efficient in dealing with a particular representation may be less efficient in dealing with other representations. The development of differential evolution-based methods contributes substantially to research on evolutionary computing and global optimization in general. The objective of this study is to investigatethe differential evolution algorithm, the intelligent adjustment of its controlparameters, and its application. In the thesis, the differential evolution algorithm is first examined using different parameter settings and test functions. Fuzzy control is then employed to make control parameters adaptive based on an optimization process and expert knowledge. The developed algorithms are applied to training radial basis function networks for function approximation with possible variables including centers, widths, and weights of basis functions and both having control parameters kept fixed and adjusted by fuzzy controller. After the influence of control variables on the performance of the differential evolution algorithm was explored, an adaptive version of the differential evolution algorithm was developed and the differential evolution-based radial basis function network training approaches were proposed. Experimental results showed that the performance of the differential evolution algorithm is sensitive to parameter setting, and the best setting was found to be problem dependent. The fuzzy adaptive differential evolution algorithm releases the user load of parameter setting and performs better than those using all fixedparameters. Differential evolution-based approaches are effective for training Gaussian radial basis function networks.