Flexibility and leadership advantages in a model with uncertain demand

We consider a differentiated Stackelberg model with demand uncertainty only for the first mover. We study the advantages of flexibility over leadership as the degree of the differentiation of the goods changes.

Cournot model with investments to change the market size

We present a new deterministic dynamical model on the market size of Cournot competitions, based on Nash equilibria of R&D investment strategies to increase the size of the market of the firms at every period of the game. We compute the unique Nash equilibrium for the second subgame and the profit functions for both firms. Adding uncertainty to the R&D investment strategies, we get a new stochastic dynamical model and we analyse the importance of the uncertainty to reverse the initial advantage of one firm with respect to the other.

Cost allocation model for distribution networks considering high penetration of distributed energy resources

The high penetration of distributed energy resources (DER) in distribution networks and the competitive environment of electricity markets impose the use of new approaches in several domains. The network cost allocation, traditionally used in transmission networks, should be adapted and used in the distribution networks considering the specifications of the connected resources. The main goal is to develop a fairer methodology trying to distribute the distribution network use costs to all players which are using the network in each period. In this paper, a model considering different type of costs (fixed, losses, and congestion costs) is proposed comprising the use of a large set of DER, namely distributed generation (DG), demand response (DR) of direct load control type, energy storage systems (ESS), and electric vehicles with capability of discharging energy to the network, which is known as vehicle-to-grid (V2G). The proposed model includes three distinct phases of operation. The first phase of the model consists in an economic dispatch based on an AC optimal power flow (AC-OPF); in the second phase Kirschen's and Bialek's tracing algorithms are used and compared to evaluate the impact of each resource in the network. Finally, the MW-mile method is used in the third phase of the proposed model. A distribution network of 33 buses with large penetration of DER is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.

A multi-objective model for scheduling of short-term incentive-based demand response programs offered by electricity retailers

In this paper, we formulate the electricity retailers’ short-term decision-making problem in a liberalized retail market as a multi-objective optimization model. Retailers with light physical assets, such as generation and storage units in the distribution network, are considered. Following advances in smart grid technologies, electricity retailers are becoming able to employ incentive-based demand response (DR) programs in addition to their physical assets to effectively manage the risks of market price and load variations. In this model, the DR scheduling is performed simultaneously with the dispatch of generation and storage units. The ultimate goal is to find the optimal values of the hourly financial incentives offered to the end-users. The proposed model considers the capacity obligations imposed on retailers by the grid operator. The profit seeking retailer also has the objective to minimize the peak demand to avoid the high capacity charges in form of grid tariffs or penalties. The non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) is used to solve the multi-objective problem. It is a fast and elitist multi-objective evolutionary algorithm. A case study is solved to illustrate the efficient performance of the proposed methodology. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the model for designing the incentive-based DR programs and indicate the efficiency of NSGA-II in solving the retailers’ multi-objective problem.

A Rat Model of Diabetic Wound Infection for the Evaluation of Topical Antimicrobial Therapies

Diabetes mellitus is an epidemic multisystemic chronic disease that frequently is complicated by complex wound infections. Innovative topical antimicrobial therapy agents are potentially useful for multimodal treatment of these infections. However, an appropriately standardized in vivo model is currently not available to facilitate the screening of these emerging products and their effect on wound healing. To develop such a model, we analyzed, tested, and modified published models of wound healing. We optimized various aspects of the model, including animal species, diabetes induction method, hair removal technique, splint and dressing methods, the control of unintentional bacterial infection, sampling methods for the evaluation of bacterial burden, and aspects of the microscopic and macroscopic assessment of wound healing, all while taking into consideration animal welfare and the '3Rs' principle. We thus developed a new wound infection model in rats that is optimized for testing topical antimicrobial therapy agents. This model accurately reproduces the pathophysiology of infected diabetic wound healing and includes the current standard treatment (that is, debridement). The numerous benefits of this model include the ready availability of necessary materials, simple techniques, high reproducibility, and practicality for experiments with large sample sizes. Furthermore, given its similarities to infected-wound healing and treatment in humans, our new model can serve as a valid alternative for applied research.

Effects of treatment, awareness and condom use in a coinfection model for HIV and HCV in MSM

We develop a new a coinfection model for hepatitis C virus (HCV) and the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We consider treatment for both diseases, screening, unawareness and awareness of HIV infection, and the use of condoms. We study the local stability of the disease-free equilibria for the full model and for the two submodels (HCV only and HIV only submodels). We sketch bifurcation diagrams for different parameters, such as the probabilities that a contact will result in a HIV or an HCV infection. We present numerical simulations of the full model where the HIV, HCV and double endemic equilibria can be observed. We also show numerically the qualitative changes of the dynamical behavior of the full model for variation of relevant parameters. We extrapolate the results from the model for actual measures that could be implemented in order to reduce the number of infected individuals.

Biological implications of the phenotypic plasticity in the Schistosoma mansoni - Nectomys squamipes model

The water-rat Nectomys squamipes is mostly important non-human host in schistosomiasis mansoni transmission in Brazil, due to its susceptibility, high abundance and water-contact pattern. During experimental infection of N. squamipes with Schistosoma mansoni, adult worms show phenotypic plasticity. This finding led us to investigate whether biological behavior is also affected. This was assessed comparing the biological characteristics of four S. mansoni strains: BE (State of Belém do Pará), CE (State of Pernambuco), CMO (State of Rio Grande do Norte) and SJ (State of São Paulo) using laboratory-bred N. squamipes. The infection was monitored by determination of the pre-patent period, fecal egg output, egg viability, intestinal egg count and, infectivity rate. No biological modification was observed in these parameters. Overall results highlight that N. squamipes was susceptible to several S. mansoni strains, suggesting that it might contribute to the maintenance of schistosomiasis mansoni in Brazil.

The ABC model for telework in Portugal

The principal aim of this paper is to develop a simple and objective model which can classify an systematise telework, and provide a standard for Portugal. This model defines special concepts of telework and allows the division of the activity in this area, making its application easier. The model was constructed on the basis of four perspectives which it has to cover: the economic and social, of the employers, of the teleworkers and the suppliers of goods and services.

Avaliação dos serviços de saúde mental em Moçambique

RESUMO: O instrumento de avaliação de sistemas de saúde mental da organização mundial de saúde (WHO-AIMS)foi usado para a recolha de informações sobre o Programa Nacional de Saúde Mental de Moçambique. O presente estudo tem como objectivo melhorar o Programa Nacional de Saúde Mental e fornecer um ponto de partida para a monitorização das mudanças. Os resultados do estudo permitirão a Moçambique fortalecer a sua capacidade para desenvolver planos de saúde mental baseados em informações com pontos de partida e metas bem definidos. O relatório será também útil para a monitorização do progresso da implementação de reformas nas políticas de saúde mental, na disponibilização de serviços de base comunitária, e no envolvimento dos utentes, seus familiares e outros actores na promoção, prevenção,cuidados e reabilitação em saúde mental. Tendo em conta os antecedentes históricos da saúde mental em Moçambique, a realidade actual clama por reformas profundas voltadas para uma intervenção mais humanizada e com enfoque nos cuidados primários. É nesse contexto que o estudo realizado apresenta resultados relacionados com as políticas, legislação, estratégias e planos de acção e financiamento para a saúde mental; serviços de saúde mental;cuidados primários; recursos humanos e ligação com outros sectores chave. A saúde mental foi avaliada desde o sistema de gestão até ao nível comunitário. Relativamente aos órgãos de gestão, a principal constatação é que existem instrumentos legais para sustentar as iniciativas desta área e influenciar os meios políticos em prol da saúde mental. Todavia, o caminho a percorrer ainda é longo uma vez que não está ainda aprovada nenhuma lei de saúde mental e os financiamentos para a área não permitem a implementação das reformas necessárias. Os serviços ao nível clínico debatem-se com a problemática dos recursos humanos (constituídos principalmente por técnicos de psiquiatria) e disponibilidade de psicofármacos. O modelo biopsicossocial ainda não é implementado integralmente uma vez que são poucos os serviços que oferecem apoio psicossocial (que inclui a reabilitação e reintegração) para além da intervenção farmacológica. Esta pode ser considerada uma das principais causas de recaídas identificadas em todas as províncias. Há uma necessidade urgente de se realizarem pesquisas e levantamentos epidemiológicos que possam servir de suporte para a advocacia em saúde mental com vista a melhoria dos cuidados a prestar aos pacientes e comunidade. Os instrumentos de recolha de informação de rotina não são adequados limitando a fidelidade dos dados recolhidos e a possibilidade de uma gestão dos serviços de saúde mental que responda as reais necessidades da população. Em suma, os resultados aqui apresentados mostram que Moçambique tem uma base que pode ser considerada uma mais valia para a reforma do sistema de saúde mental. Existem, ainda que escassos, recursos como humanos, infra-estruturas e legislação para a prestação dos serviços clínicos. É preciso investir na saúde mental para que os recursos existentes sejam melhorados e expandidos, apostando na criação de equipas multidisciplinares e qualificação das equipas de gestão e equipas clínicas. --------ABSTRACT: The World Health Organization Assessment Instrument for Mental Health Services (WHO-AIMS) was used to collect information about the National Mental Health Program of Mozambique. The present study aims to improve the National Mental Health Program and provide a starting point for monitoring change. The study results will allow Mozambique to strengthen its capacity to develop mental health plans based on information with starting points and well-defined goals. The report will also be useful for monitoring the progress of implementation of reforms in mental health policies, the provision of community-based services, and involvement of users, their families and other stakeholders in the promotion, prevention, care and rehabilitation in mental health. Given the historical background of mental health in Mozambique, the current situation calls for reforms aimed at a more humane intervention focused on primary care. In this context, the study presents results related to policies, legislation, strategies and action plans and funding for mental health; mental health services; primary care; human resources and liaison with other key sectors. Mental health was assessed from the management system to the community level. With regard to the management, the main observation is that there are legal instruments to support the initiatives in this area and to influence the political means on behalf of mental health. However, the pathway is still long as it is not yet approved any Mental Health Law and the funding for the area do not allow the implementation of necessary reforms. Services at the clinical level are struggling with the issue of human resources (consisting primarily of psychiatrist technicians) and availability of psychotropic drugs. The biopsychosocial model is not yet fully implemented since there are few services providing psychosocial support (including rehabilitation and reintegration) in addition to pharmacological intervention. This can be considered a major cause of relapse identified in all provinces. There is an urgent need to conduct research and epidemiological surveys which could provide support for advocacy in mental health in order to improve the mental health car for the patients and community. The routine data collection instruments are not appropriate limiting the fidelity of the data collected and the possibility of a management of mental health services that meets the real needs of the population. In summary, the results presented here show that Mozambique has a groundwork that can be considered an asset for the reform of mental health system. There are, though scarce, human resources, infrastructure and legislation for the provision of clinical services. It’s necessary to invest in mental health so that existing resources are improved and expanded, and to invest on the creation of multidisciplinary teams and qualification of management teams and clinical teams.

A simplified four-branch model for the analytical study of the out-of-plane performance of regular stone URM walls

During the last years, several studies have been made aiming to assess the out-of-plane seismic response of unreinforced stone masonry structures. This fact led to the development of a wide variety of models and approaches, ranging from simple kinematic based analytical models up to complex numerical simulations. Nevertheless, for the sake of simplicity, the out-of-plane seismic response of a masonry wall pier may be obtained by means of a simple single-degree-of-freedom system while still providing good results. In fact, despite the assumptions associated with such a simple formulation, it is also true that the epistemic uncertainty inherent with the selection of appropriate input parameters in more complex models may render them truly ineffective. In this framework, this paper focuses on the study of the out-of-plane bending of unreinforced stone masonry walls (cantilevers) by proposing a simplified analytical approach based on the construction of a linearized four-branch model, which is used to characterize the linear and nonlinear response of such structural elements through an overturning moment-rotation relationship. The formulation of the four-branch model is presented and described in detail and the meaningful parameters used for its construction are obtained from a set of experimental laboratory tests performed on six full-scale unreinforced regular sacco stone masonry specimens. Moreover, a parametric analysis aiming to evaluate the effect of these parameters’ variation on the final configuration of the model is presented and critically discussed. Finally, the results obtained from the application of the developed four-branch model on real unreinforced regular sacco stone masonry walls are thoroughly analysed and the main conclusions obtained from its application are summarized.

A Quantitative Model for Decomposing & Assessing the Value for the Customer

The research presented in this paper proposes a novel quantitative model for decomposing and assessing the Value for the Customer. The proposed approach builds on the different dimensions of the Value Network analysis proposed by Verna Allee having as background the concept of Value for the Customer proposed by Woodall. In this context, the Value for the Customer is modelled as a relationship established between the exchanged deliverables and a combination of tangible and intangible assets projected into their endogenous or exogenous dimensions. The Value Network Analysis of the deliverables exchange enables an in-depth understanding of this frontier and the implicit modelling of co-creation scenarios. The proposed Conceptual Model for Decomposing Value for the Customer combines several concepts: from the marketing area we have the concept of Value for the Customer; from the area of intellectual capital the concept of Value Network Analysis; from the collaborative networks area we have the perspective of the enterprise life cycle and the endogenous and exogenous perspectives; at last, the proposed model is supported by a mathematical formal description that stems from the area of Multi-Criteria Decision Making. The whole concept is illustrated in the context of a case study of an enterprise in the footwear industry (Pontechem). The merits of this approach seem evident from the contact with Pontechem as it provides a structured approach for the enterprises to assess the adequacy of their value proposition to the client/customer needs and how these relate to their endogenous and/or exogenous tangible or intangible assets. The proposed model, as a tool, may therefore be a useful instrument in supporting the commercialisation of new products and/or services.

A Communication Intervention for Training Southern European Oncologists to Recognize Psychosocial Morbidity in Cancer. I - Development of the Model and Preliminary Results on Physicians' Satisfaction

BACKGROUND: The detection of psychosocial distress is a significant communication problem in Southern Europe and other countries. Work in this area is hampered by a lack of data. Because not much is known about training aimed at improving the recognition of psychosocial disorders in cancer patients, we developed a basic course model for medical oncology professionals. METHODS: A specific educational and experiential model (12 hours divided into 2 modules) involving formal teaching (ie, journal articles, large-group presentations), practice in small groups (ie, small-group exercises and role playing), and discussion in large groups was developed with the aim of improving the ability of oncologists to detect emotional disturbances in cancer patients (ie, depression, anxiety, and adjustment disorders). RESULTS: A total of 30 oncologists from 3 Southern European countries (Italy, Portugal, and Spain) participated in the workshop. The training course was well accepted by most participants who expressed general satisfaction and a positive subjective perception of the utility of the course for clinical practice. Of the total participants, 28 physicians (93.3%) thought that had they been exposed to this material sooner, they would have incorporated the techniques received in the workshop into their practices; 2 participants stated they would likely have done so. Half of the doctors (n = 15) believed that their clinical communication techniques were improved by participating in the workshop, and the remaining half thought that their abilities to communicate with cancer patients had improved. CONCLUSIONS: This model is a feasible approach for oncologists and is easily applicable to various oncology settings. Further studies will demonstrate the effectiveness of this method for improving oncologists skills in recognizing emotional disorders in their patients with cancer.

Dimensionar a logística interna da fábrica Toyota Ovar para a produção de nova viatura

O projeto foi realizado na Toyota (divisão fabril de Ovar), no ano letivo 2014/2015, teve por base um estágio extracurricular que foi realizado para que desta forma tomasse contacto com uma realidade concreta e absoluta no contexto empresarial. O estágio serviu, principalmente, como uma experiência na compreensão do funcionamento de uma indústria de automóveis. Este projeto desenvolve-se no âmbito do 2ºano do Mestrado de Logística e apresenta os contributos desenvolvidos no departamento de logística para a reorganização da mesma para a produção de um novo modelo automóvel. Atualmente, a Toyota, para os modelos de automóveis que produz, recebe os componentes em CKD (Completed Knocked Down) provenientes do Japão em lotes de cinco unidades. Estes lotes são armazenados no armazém, de onde só saem quando for dada ordem para serem produzidos. Cada lote tem várias caixas, que são colocadas à vez numa zona comum de abertura. São retidos os componentes das caixas CKD e colocados nos transportadores próprios dos postos correspondentes (supermercado de linha). Isto significa que sempre que é solicitado uma viatura de um determinado lote, são obrigados a produzir as cinco unidades. Isto significa que as restantes unidades do lote terão que ficar em parque aberto a aguardar venda futura, para além de ter um stock desnecessário, estas unidades ficam vulneráveis e sofrem desgaste, pois estão expostas à intempérie, causando graves problemas de qualidade e respetivos custos associados. Recentemente, foi decidida a produção do modelo Land Cruiser 70 na unidade industrial de Ovar, Portugal, o que obrigou a uma reorganização da produção e processos logísticos para a sua produção. Os objetivos que a empresa pretende com a entrada de um novo projeto Land Cruiser 70, são os seguintes: Alterar o sistema de abastecimento, implementando o abastecimento unitário em toda a fábrica para o novo modelo, garantindo o “one by one production”; Definir o funcionamento do processo logístico desde a chegada dos componentes até ficarem disponíveis no supermercado de linha. Para isso será necessário dimensionar armazém e zona de abertura, definir layouts e quantidade de stocks, bem como definir sistemas de comunicação entre abertura e supermercado; Verificar as peças que vão fazer parte do chassi por posto e contabilizar os dolly´s1 necessários; Fazer o layout de abastecimento da linha do chassi; Calcular o tempo de abertura, de abastecimento e de picking do chassi e de triming. Este projeto tem em conta a política de melhoria contínua de forma a conseguir satisfazer o cliente (ser eficaz) utilizando cada vez menos recursos quer físicos quer humanos (ser eficiente, detetar e eliminar os desperdícios). O presente projeto foi inserido na equipa de melhoria contínua da logística, maioritariamente no chassi. Em termos globais, os objetivos propostos neste estágio foram atingidos com êxito.

Preliminary study towards a novel experimental model to study localized cutaneous leishmaniasis caused bY Leishmania (Leishmania) mexicana

There is not an experimental model of localized cutaneous leishmaniasis (LCL) caused by Leishmania (Leishmania) mexicana. The aim of the present study was to characterize the clinical and histological features of Peromyscus yucatanicus experimentally infected with L. (L.) mexicana. A total of 54 P. yucatanicus (groups of 18) were inoculated with 1x10(6) promastigotes of L. (L.) mexicana in the base of the tail. They were euthanized at three and six months post experimental infection. The control group was inoculated with RPMI-1640. The predominant clinical sign observed was a single ulcerated lesion in 27.77% (5/18) and in 11.11% (2/18) P. yucatanicus at three and six months respectively. The histological pattern described as chronic granulomatous inflammation with or without necrosis was found in 7/7 (100%) biopsies of euthanized P. yucatanicus at three (n = 5) and six (n = 2) months, respectively. These results resembled clinical and histological features caused by L. (L.) mexicana in humans, and support the possibility to employ P. yucatanicus as a novel experimental model to study LCL caused by this parasite.

Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.