The underpricing of IPOs on the stock exchange of Mauritius

This paper investigates the underpricing of IPOs on the Stock Exchange of Mauritius (SEM). Taking into account the whole population of firms which went public since the inception of the SEM until 2010, the results show an average degree of underpricing within the range 10 to 20%. Using a regression approach, we demonstrate that the aftermarket risk level and auditor's reputation both have a significant positive impact on initial returns. We propose the use of the Z-score as a composite measure of a firm's ex ante financial strength, and find that it has a significant negative effect on the degree of short-run underpricing.

Intrinsic and rational speculative bubbles in the U.S. housing market 1960-2011

This paper examines the dynamics of the residential property market in the United States between 1960 and 2011. Given the cyclically and apparent overvaluation of the market over this period, we determine whether deviations of real estate prices from their fundamentals were caused by the existence of two genres of bubbles: intrinsic bubbles and rational speculative bubbles. We find evidence of an intrinsic bubble in the market pre-2000, implying that overreaction to changes in rents contributed to the overvaluation of real estate prices. However, using a regime-switching model, we find evidence of periodically collapsing rational bubbles in the post-2000 market

Proceedings of the 7th international conference on disability, virtual reality and associated technologies, with ArtAbilitation (ICDVRAT 2008)

The proceedings of the conference

Constrained principal component analysis reveals functionally connected load-dependent networks involved in multiple stages of working memory

Constrained principal component analysis (CPCA) with a finite impulse response (FIR) basis set was used to reveal functionally connected networks and their temporal progression over a multistage verbal working memory trial in which memory load was varied. Four components were extracted, and all showed statistically significant sensitivity to the memory load manipulation. Additionally, two of the four components sustained this peak activity, both for approximately 3 s (Components 1 and 4). The functional networks that showed sustained activity were characterized by increased activations in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, and left supramarginal gyrus, and decreased activations in the primary auditory cortex and "default network" regions. The functional networks that did not show sustained activity were instead dominated by increased activation in occipital cortex, dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, sensori-motor cortical regions, and superior parietal cortex. The response shapes suggest that although all four components appear to be invoked at encoding, the two sustained-peak components are likely to be additionally involved in the delay period. Our investigation provides a unique view of the contributions made by a network of brain regions over the course of a multiple-stage working memory trial.

Seasonal pattern of regional carbon balance in the central Rocky Mountains from surface and airborne measurements

[1] High-elevation forests represent a large fraction of potential carbon uptake in North America, but this uptake is not well constrained by observations. Additionally, forests in the Rocky Mountains have recently been severely damaged by drought, fire, and insect outbreaks, which have been quantified at local scales but not assessed in terms of carbon uptake at regional scales. The Airborne Carbon in the Mountains Experiment was carried out in 2007 partly to assess carbon uptake in western U.S. mountain ecosystems. The magnitude and seasonal change of carbon uptake were quantified by (1) paired upwind-downwind airborne CO2 observations applied in a boundary layer budget, (2) a spatially explicit ecosystem model constrained using remote sensing and flux tower observations, and (3) a downscaled global tracer transport inversion. Top-down approaches had mean carbon uptake equivalent to flux tower observations at a subalpine forest, while the ecosystem model showed less. The techniques disagreed on temporal evolution. Regional carbon uptake was greatest in the early summer immediately following snowmelt and tended to lessen as the region experienced dry summer conditions. This reduction was more pronounced in the airborne budget and inversion than in flux tower or upscaling, possibly related to lower snow water availability in forests sampled by the aircraft, which were lower in elevation than the tower site. Changes in vegetative greenness associated with insect outbreaks were detected using satellite reflectance observations, but impacts on regional carbon cycling were unclear, highlighting the need to better quantify this emerging disturbance effect on montane forest carbon cycling.

Nutritional value of edible seaweeds

This article presents information on the nutritional aspects of seaweeds in terms of fiber, mineral content, fats and lipids, vitamin contents, and components that have a confirmed and investigated nutritional effect. The nutrient levels of seaweeds are also shown in comparison to currently applicable reference nutrient intakes or guideline daily amounts of nutrients and are contrasted with terrestrial foodstuffs with respect to selected nutrients. For the purpose of comparison, a sample serving size of 8 g dry weight of seaweed is used to illustrate the potential contribution of seaweeds to the diet.

A practical comparison of blinded methods for sample size reviews in survival data clinical trials.

This paper presents practical approaches to the problem of sample size re-estimation in the case of clinical trials with survival data when proportional hazards can be assumed. When data are readily available at the time of the review, on a full range of survival experiences across the recruited patients, it is shown that, as expected, performing a blinded re-estimation procedure is straightforward and can help to maintain the trial's pre-specified error rates. Two alternative methods for dealing with the situation where limited survival experiences are available at the time of the sample size review are then presented and compared. In this instance, extrapolation is required in order to undertake the sample size re-estimation. Worked examples, together with results from a simulation study are described. It is concluded that, as in the standard case, use of either extrapolation approach successfully protects the trial error rates. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Epoch-specific functional networks involved in working memory

Working memory (WM) is not a unitary construct. There are distinct processes involved in encoding information, maintaining it on-line, and using it to guide responses. The anatomical configurations of these processes are more accurately analyzed as functionally connected networks than collections of individual regions. In the current study we analyzed event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data from a Sternberg Item Recognition Paradigm WM task using a multivariate analysis method that allowed the linking of functional networks to temporally-separated WM epochs. The length of the delay epochs was varied to optimize isolation of the hemodynamic response (HDR) for each task epoch. All extracted functional networks displayed statistically significant sensitivity to delay length. Novel information extracted from these networks that was not apparent in the univariate analysis of these data included involvement of the hippocampus in encoding/probe, and decreases in BOLD signal in the superior temporal gyrus (STG), along with default-mode regions, during encoding/delay. The bilateral hippocampal activity during encoding/delay fits with theoretical models of WM in which memoranda held across the short term are activated long-term memory representations. The BOLD signal decreases in the STG were unexpected, and may reflect repetition suppression effects invoked by internal repetition of letter stimuli. Thus, analysis methods focusing on how network dynamics relate to experimental conditions allowed extraction of novel information not apparent in univariate analyses, and are particularly recommended for WM experiments for which task epochs cannot be randomized.

Futures basis, inventory and commodity price volatility: an empirical analysis

We employ a large dataset of physical inventory data on 21 different commodities for the period 1993–2011 to empirically analyze the behavior of commodity prices and their volatility as predicted by the theory of storage. We examine two main issues. First, we analyze the relationship between inventory and the shape of the forward curve. Low (high) inventory is associated with forward curves in backwardation (contango), as the theory of storage predicts. Second, we show that price volatility is a decreasing function of inventory for the majority of commodities in our sample. This effect is more pronounced in backwardated markets. Our findings are robust with respect to alternative inventory measures and over the recent commodity price boom.

The credit relationship between Henry III and merchants of Douai and Ypres, 1247-70

This article looks at an important but neglected aspect of medieval sovereign debt, namely ‘accounts payable’ owed by the Crown to merchants and employees. It focuses on the unusually well-documented relationship between Henry III, King of England between 1216 and 1272, and Flemish merchants from the towns of Douai and Ypres, who provided cloth on credit to the royal wardrobe. From the surviving royal documents, we reconstruct the credit advanced to the royal wardrobe by the merchants of Ypres and Douai for each year between 1247 and 1270, together with the king's repayment history. The interactions between the king and the merchants are then analysed. The insights from this analysis are applied to the historical data to explain the trading decisions made by the merchants during this period, as well as why the strategies of the Yprois sometimes differed from those of the Douaissiens.

Comparative in vitro inhibition of urinary tract pathogens by single- and multi-strain probiotics

PURPOSE: Multi-species probiotic preparations have been suggested as having a wide spectrum of application, although few studies have compared their efficacy with that of individual component strains at equal concentrations. We therefore tested the ability of 4 single probiotics and 4 probiotic mixtures to inhibit the urinary tract pathogens Escherichia coli NCTC 9001 and Enterococcus faecalis NCTC 00775. METHODS: We used an agar spot test to test the ability of viable cells to inhibit pathogens, while a broth inhibition assay was used to assess inhibition by cell-free probiotic supernatants in both pH-neutralised and non-neutralised forms. RESULTS: In the agar spot test, all probiotic treatments showed inhibition, L. acidophilus was the most inhibitory single strain against E. faecalis, L. fermentum the most inhibitory against E. coli. A commercially available mixture of 14 strains (Bio-Kult(®)) was the most effective mixture, against E. faecalis, the 3-lactobacillus mixture the most inhibitory against E. coli. Mixtures were not significantly more inhibitory than single strains. In the broth inhibition assays, all probiotic supernatants inhibited both pathogens when pH was not controlled, with only 2 treatments causing inhibition at a neutral pH. CONCLUSIONS: Both viable cells of probiotics and supernatants of probiotic cultures were able to inhibit growth of two urinary tract pathogens. Probiotic mixtures prevented the growth of urinary tract pathogens but were not significantly more inhibitory than single strains. Probiotics appear to produce metabolites that are inhibitory towards urinary tract pathogens. Probiotics display potential to reduce the incidence of urinary tract infections via inhibition of colonisation.

The performance of football club managers: skill or luck?

This paper evaluates the extent to which the performance of English Premier League football club managers can be attributed to skill or luck when measured separately from the characteristics of the team. We first use a specification that models managerial skill as a fixed effect and we examine the relationship between the number of points earned in league matches and the club’s wage bill, transfer spending, and the extent to which they were hit by absent players through injuries, suspensions or unavailability. We next implement a bootstrapping approach to generate a simulated distribution of average points that could have taken place after the impact of the manager has been removed. The findings suggest that there are a considerable number of highly skilled managers but also several who perform below expectations. The paper proceeds to illustrate how the approach adopted could be used to determine the optimal time for a club to part company with its manager. We are able to identify in advance several managers who the analysis suggests could have been fired earlier and others whose sackings were hard to justify based on their performances.