An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Saint Lucia

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Saint Lucia. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009 there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. In addition to temperature, there is also the threat of increased wind speeds. Since the early twentieth century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Saint Lucia, the estimated damage from 12 windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$1 billion or about 106% of 2009 GDP. Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. This report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above on the economy of Saint Lucia. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations, as well as those under two, likely, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate scenarios: A2 and B2.

Saint Lucia: survey of living conditions and household budgets 2005/2006. User's manual.

This manual contains information on the dataset compiled from the Survey of Living Conditions and Household Budgets (SLC/HBS) conducted in Saint Lucia by the Kairi Consultants Limited and National Assessment Team between 2005 and 2006. The SLC/HBS is a sample survey which generates data on households and individuals in the country. This manual was developed by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) – Subregional Headquarters in the Caribbean as a supplementary document for the Caribbean Household Surveys Database (CHSD). It is sectioned out into two main parts- section one provides brief description of the survey and section two contains a concise data dictionary of variables generated from the survey as well as additional variables created by ECLAC. In addition, for ease of reference, an index of all variables in the database is included at the end of the document.

Questionnaire and survey methodology. Saint Lucia: Survey of living condition and household budgets 2005/2006

This manual documents some of the material related to the Survey of Living Conditions and Household Budgets (SLC/HBS) conducted in Saint Lucia by the Kairi Consultants Limited and National Assessment Team between 2005 and 2006. The SLC/HBS is a sample survey which generates data on households and individuals in the country. The main objectives of this survey were (i) to collect information from households on their expenditure patterns, income and other characteristics and; (ii) to revise the 'average shopping basket' used in constructing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the country, and the relative weights of the items in the basket. The survey also provided valuable data for an assessment of the impact of socio-economic policies on the living conditions of the resident population in Saint Lucia. Further, data on households gathered in the survey also provide valuable inputs for the compilation of the country's National Accounts statistics relating to the household sector. This manual was developed by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) – Subregional Headquarters in the Caribbean as a supplementary document for the Caribbean Household Surveys Database (CHSD). The main components of this manual include survey methodology and the questionnaires used for data collection. The latter are included in the annex at the end of the document. All information contained therein was provided by the Statistics Department in Saint Lucia. The ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean is pleased to acknowledge the Saint Lucia Statistics Department for graciously consenting to the use of their surveys and metadata under the project Improving Caribbean Household Surveys. Due recognition must also be given to the Statistics and Economics Projection Division at ECLAC (Santiago) who provided guidance in the standardization of the datasets and the creation of the Caribbean Household Surveys Databank.

Effects of plant regulators on the growth and flowering of Saint Augustine grass plants

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effects of three plant growth inhibitors on the development and emission of floral rachis of Saint Augustine grass [Stenotaphrum secundatum (Walt.) Kuntzel] plants. The study was carried out in a 15 month old lawn with the experimental plots being distributed in accordance with a complete randomized block design with four replications. The treatments consisted of sole application of trinexapac-ethyl (113, 226, 452, 678, and 904 g ai ha(-1)), prohexadione-calcium (100 and 200 g ai ha(-1)), and bispyribac-sodium (40 and 60 g ai ha(-1)) plus a check treatment in which the plants were not submitted to any of the plant growth inhibitors. The effects of those products were evaluated in terms of visual signs of plant intoxication, plant height, emission and height of floral rachises, and chip total dry matter production. All the plant growth inhibitors resulted in visible injury to the plants but these intoxication signs practically disappeared 28 days after the application. Trinexapac-ethyl at the dose of 904 g ai ha(-1) reduced plant height by 59.7%, the emission of floral rachis by 96.4%, and the amount of chip dry matter production by 87.7%. Plant growth inhibitors may reduce the number of times of lawn plants cutting up to 119 days after their application with no harmful effects on the plants visual aspect.

A new species of neoplecostomus eigenmann & eigenmann, 1888 (siluriformes: loricariidae: neoplecostominae) from the upper rio Parana basin

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A New Species of Fissurella from Sao Pedro e Sao Paulo Archipelago, Brazil (Vetigastropoda, Fissurellidae)

Fissurella mesoatlantica n. sp. is endemic to the Saint Peter and Saint Paul Archipelago, Brazil, located approximately in the middle Atlantic (00 degrees 55N. 29 degrees 20W). The species is very similar to F. clenchi from the mainland Brazilian coast, differing in having a taller. more richly sculptured shell and by anatomical details. such its the papillae of mantle border and epipodial tentacles. A complete anatomical description is included.

The surface exchange of trace gases in the tropics and savannas

ZusammenfassungDie Spurengase NOx (Stickstoffoxid (NO) und Stickstoffdioxid (NO2)) haben massgeblichen Einfluss auf die Produktion von OH (Hydroxylradikal) und Ozon (O3) in der Troposphäre. Die Bodenemissionen dieser Gase sind weitgehend unbekannt. Das Ziel dieser Arbeit war, die für die NO Bodenemissionen relevanten Prozesse durch Labor und Feldmessungen zu untersuchen und diese durch Modellsimulationen für zwei Regionen, ein tropisches Regenwaldgebiet in Rondônia (Brasilien) und subtropische Savannen in Zimbabwe abzuschätzen. Unter Verwendung der gemessenen NO Werte ergaben die Simulationen mit einem modifizierten prozessorientierten Modell, dass Abholzung in den Tropen nach einer kurzzeitigen Erhöhung zu einer langfristigen Abnahme der Bodenemissionen führt. Ein 'up scaling' der Modellresultate ergab ausgehend von der ursprünglichen Bewaldung der Region eine Verdopplung der NO Bodenemission bis 1999. Sowohl für nährstoffarme Böden der Tropen als auch für die nährstoffreichen Savannenböden waren Landnutzung und Bodenfeuchte die wichtigsten Einflussgrössen für die Regulierung der Emissionen. Über den Zeitraum eines Jahres waren die Emissionsraten der Tropen (0.49 kgNhayr-1) ungefähr halb so gross wie die der subtropischen Savannen (0.86 kgNhayr-1). Solange die Abholzung der Regenwälder voranschreitet werden die Tropen starken Einfluss auf die troposphärische Chemie haben.

Simulation studies of correlation functions and relaxation in polymeric systems

We investigate the statics and dynamics of a glassy,non-entangled, short bead-spring polymer melt with moleculardynamics simulations. Temperature ranges from slightlyabove the mode-coupling critical temperature to the liquidregime where features of a glassy liquid are absent. Ouraim is to work out the polymer specific effects on therelaxation and particle correlation. We find the intra-chain static structure unaffected bytemperature, it depends only on the distance of monomersalong the backbone. In contrast, the distinct inter-chainstructure shows pronounced site-dependence effects at thelength-scales of the chain and the nearest neighbordistance. There, we also find the strongest temperaturedependence which drives the glass transition. Both the siteaveraged coupling of the monomer and center of mass (CM) andthe CM-CM coupling are weak and presumably not responsiblefor a peak in the coherent relaxation time at the chain'slength scale. Chains rather emerge as soft, easilyinterpenetrating objects. Three particle correlations arewell reproduced by the convolution approximation with theexception of model dependent deviations. In the spatially heterogeneous dynamics of our system weidentify highly mobile monomers which tend to follow eachother in one-dimensional paths forming ``strings''. Thesestrings have an exponential length distribution and aregenerally short compared to the chain length. Thus, arelaxation mechanism in which neighboring mobile monomersmove along the backbone of the chain seems unlikely.However, the correlation of bonded neighbors is enhanced. When liquids are confined between two surfaces in relativesliding motion kinetic friction is observed. We study ageneric model setup by molecular dynamics simulations for awide range of sliding speeds, temperatures, loads, andlubricant coverings for simple and molecular fluids. Instabilities in the particle trajectories are identified asthe origin of kinetic friction. They lead to high particlevelocities of fluid atoms which are gradually dissipatedresulting in a friction force. In commensurate systemsfluid atoms follow continuous trajectories for sub-monolayercoverings and consequently, friction vanishes at low slidingspeeds. For incommensurate systems the velocity probabilitydistribution exhibits approximately exponential tails. Weconnect this velocity distribution to the kinetic frictionforce which reaches a constant value at low sliding speeds. This approach agrees well with the friction obtaineddirectly from simulations and explains Amontons' law on themicroscopic level. Molecular bonds in commensurate systemslead to incommensurate behavior, but do not change thequalitative behavior of incommensurate systems. However,crossed chains form stable load bearing asperities whichstrongly increase friction.

Investigation of a superthermal ultracold neutron source based on a solid deuterium converter for the TRIGA Mainz reactor

Research in fundamental physics with the free neutron is one of the key tools for testing the Standard Model at low energies. Most prominent goals in this field are the search for a neutron electric dipole moment (EDM) and the measurement of the neutron lifetime. Significant improvements of the experimental performance using ultracold neutrons (UCN) require reduction of both systematic and statistical errors.rnThe development and construction of new UCN sources based on the superthermal concept is therefore an important step for the success of future fundamental physics with ultracold neutrons. rnSignificant enhancement of today available UCN densities strongly correlates with an efficient use of an UCN converter material. The UCN converter here is to be understood as a medium which reduces the velocity of cold neutrons (CN, velocity of about 600 m/s) to the velocity of UCN (velocity of about 6 m/s).rnSeveral big research centers around the world are presently planning or constructing new superthermal UCN sources, which are mainly based on the use of either solid deuterium or superfluid helium as UCN converter.rnThanks to the idea of Yu.Pokotilovsky, there exists the opportunity to build competitive UCN sources also at small research reactors of the TRIGA type. Of course these smaller facilities don't promise high UCN densities of several 1000 UCN/cm³, but they are able to provide densities around 100 UCN/cm³ for experiments.rnIn the context of this thesis, it was possible to demonstrate succesfully the feasibility of a superthermal UCN source at the tangential beamport C of the research reactor TRIGA Mainz. Based on a prototype for the future UCN source at the Forschungs-Neutronenquelle Heinz Maier-Leibnitz (FRMII) in munich, which was planned and built in collaboration with the Technical University of Munich, further investigations and improvements were done and are presented in this thesis. rnIn parallel, a second UCN source for the radial beamport D was designed and built. The comissioning of this new source is foreseen in spring 2010.rnAt beamport D with its higher thermal neutron flux, it should be possible to increase the available UCN densities of 4 UCN/cm³ by minimum one order of magnitude.

Evaluation of administration of isoflurane at approximately the minimum alveolar concentration on depression of a nociceptive withdrawal reflex evoked by transcutaneous electrical stimulation in ponies

OBJECTIVE: To investigate effects of isoflurane at approximately the minimum alveolar concentration (MAC) on the nociceptive withdrawal reflex (NWR) of the forelimb of ponies as a method for quantifying anesthetic potency. ANIMALS: 7 healthy adult Shetland ponies. PROCEDURE: Individual MAC (iMAC) for isoflurane was determined for each pony. Then, effects of isoflurane administered at 0.85, 0.95, and 1.05 iMAC on the NWR were assessed. At each concentration, the NWR threshold was defined electromyographically for the common digital extensor and deltoid muscles by stimulating the digital nerve; additional electrical stimulations (3, 5, 10, 20, 30, and 40 mA) were delivered, and the evoked activity was recorded and analyzed. After the end of anesthesia, the NWR threshold was assessed in standing ponies. RESULTS: Mean +/- SD MAC of isoflurane was 1.0 +/- 0.2%. The NWR thresholds for both muscles increased significantly in a concentration-dependent manner during anesthesia, whereas they decreased in awake ponies. Significantly higher thresholds were found for the deltoid muscle, compared with thresholds for the common digital extensor muscle, in anesthetized ponies. At each iMAC tested, amplitudes of the reflex responses from both muscles increased as stimulus intensities increased from 3 to 40 mA. A concentration-dependent depression of evoked reflexes with reduction in slopes of the stimulus-response functions was detected. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Anesthetic-induced changes in sensory-motor processing in ponies anesthetized with isoflurane at concentrations of approximately 1.0 MAC can be detected by assessment of NWR. This method will permit comparison of effects of inhaled anesthetics or anesthetic combinations on spinal processing in equids.

Luxurious Merovingian Textiles Excavated from Burials in the Saint Denis Basilica, France, 6th-7th century

A new examination of the textile fragments found in the Merovingian burials in the basilica of Saint Denis, near Paris, has recently underscored the diversity of fabrics used to make garments in which members of the royal court were buried. Among them, some woolens of fine quality had been dyed with indigotin. The most astonishing fibre found belongs to a mixed textile (not skin) with beaver fibers and wool. Silks contained shellfish purple and in one case kermes? Two dyestuffs associated with royalty and privilege. Along with this was large number of gold threads, probably produced locally and that were used in tablet-woven borders or for embroideries. In addition, several figured silks, of oriental origin, testify to the importance of this "foreign" material and the taste for textiles woven with complex techniques and probably what had originally had beautiful designs. Although none of these designs have been preserved and many colors have been greatly damaged, the technical characteristics of the remnants indicate proveniences as far as Byzantium, Sassanid Persia and the Chinese court. Such precious textiles show the high social status and political power of the Merovingian court, a testament to their ability to access such luxurious and costly textiles through diplomacy and/or trade with other powerful empires. The examination of these rare textiles along with other fine silks and luxury objects from the same period found in France expand our view of the fundamental role of textiles in the political sphere of this early period of European history.