Physiology, ecological niches and species distribution

Although many studies have debated the theoretical links between physiology, ecological niches and species distribution, few studies have provided evidence for a tight empirical coupling between these concepts at a macroecological scale. We used an ecophysiological model to assess the fundamental niche of a key-structural marine species. We found a close relationship between its fundamental and realized niche. The relationship remains constant at both biogeographical and decadal scales, showing that changes in environmental forcing propagate from the physiological to the macroecological level. A substantial shift in the spatial distribution is detected in the North Atlantic and projections of range shift using IPCC scenarios suggest a poleward movement of the species of one degree of latitude per decade for the 21st century. The shift in the spatial distribution of this species reveals a pronounced alteration of polar pelagic ecosystems with likely implications for lower and upper trophic levels and some biogeochemical cycles.

Strong links between phytoplankton community physiology and dimethylsulphoniopropionate (DMSP) concentrations in the sub-tropical/tropical Atlantic

We present an extensive dataset of dimethylsulphide (DMS, n = 651) and dimethylsulphoniopropionate (DMSP, n = 590) from the Atlantic Meridional Transect programme. These data are used to derive representative depth profiles that illustrate observed natural variations and can be used for DMS and DMSP model-validation in oligotrophic waters. To further understand our dataset, we interpret the data with a wide range of accompanying parameters that characterise the prevailing biogeochemical conditions and phytoplankton community physiology, activity, taxonomic composition, and capacity to cope with light stress. No correlations were observed with typical biomarker pigments for DMSP-producing species. However, strong correlations were found between DMSP and primary production by cells >2 µm in diameter, and between DMSP and some photo-protective pigments. These parameters are measures of mixed phytoplankton communities, so we infer that such associations are likely to be stronger in DMSP-producing organisms. Further work is warranted to develop links between community parameters, DMS and DMSP at the global scale.

Quantifying ecosystem-level consequences of ocean acidification and warming by scaling up individual level responses of a predator snail and its trophic interactions

Understanding long‐term, ecosystem‐level impacts of climate change is challenging because experimental research frequently focuses on short‐term, individual‐level impacts in isolation. We address this shortcoming first through an interdisciplinary ensemble of novel experimental techniques to investigate the impacts of 14‐month exposure to ocean acidification and warming (OAW) on the physiology, activity, predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predation of an important marine gastropod (Nucella lapillus). We simultaneously estimated the potential impacts of these global drivers on N. lapillus population dynamics and dispersal parameters. We then used these data to parameterize a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model, to investigate the consequences of OAW on the distribution of the species in the wider NE Atlantic region by 2100. The model accounts also for changes in the distribution of resources, suitable habitat and environment simulated by finely resolved biogeochemical models, under three IPCC global emissions scenarios. The experiments showed that temperature had the greatest impact on individual‐level responses, while acidification had a similarly important role in the mediation of predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predators. Changes in Nucella predatory behaviour appeared to serve as a strategy to mitigate individual‐level impacts of acidification, but the development of this response may be limited in the presence of predators. The model projected significant large‐scale changes in the distribution of Nucella by the year 2100 that were exacerbated by rising greenhouse gas emissions. These changes were spatially heterogeneous, as the degree of impact of OAW on the combination of responses considered by the model varied depending on local‐environmental conditions and resource availability. Such changes in macro‐scale distributions cannot be predicted by investigating individual‐level impacts in isolation, or by considering climate stressors separately. Scaling up the results of experimental climate change research requires approaches that account for long‐term, multiscale responses to multiple stressors, in an ecosystem context.

Scaling up experimental ocean acidification and warming research: from individuals to the ecosystem

Understanding long-term, ecosystem-level impacts of climate change is challenging because experimental research frequently focuses on short-term, individual-level impacts in isolation. We address this shortcoming first through an inter-disciplinary ensemble of novel experimental techniques to investigate the impacts of 14-month exposure to ocean acidification and warming (OAW) on the physiology, activity, predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predation of an important marine gastropod (Nucella lapillus). We simultaneously estimated the potential impacts of these global drivers on N. lapillus population dynamics and dispersal parameters. We then used these data to parameterise a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model, to investigate the consequences of OAW on the distribution of the species in the wider NE Atlantic region by 2100. The model accounts also for changes in the distribution of resources, suitable habitat and environment simulated by finely resolved biogeochemical models, under three IPCC global emissions scenarios. The experiments showed that temperature had the greatest impact on individual level responses, while acidification has a similarly important role in the mediation of predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predators. Changes in Nucella predatory behaviour appeared to serve as a strategy to mitigate individual level impacts of acidification, but the development of this response may be limited in the presence of predators. The model projected significant large-scale changes in the distribution of Nucella by the year 2100 that were exacerbated by rising greenhouse gas emissions. These changes were spatially heterogeneous, as the degree of impact of OAW on the combination of responses considered by the model varied depending on local environmental conditions and resource availability. Such changes in macro-scale distributions cannot be predicted by investigating individual level impacts in isolation, or by considering climate stressors separately. Scaling up the results of experimental climate change research requires approaches that account for long-term, multi-scale responses to multiple stressors, in an ecosystem context.