940 resultados para Bayesian belief networks
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This thesis examines brain networks involved in auditory attention and auditory working memory using measures of task performance, brain activity, and neuroanatomical connectivity. Auditory orienting and maintenance of attention were compared with visual orienting and maintenance of attention, and top-down controlled attention was compared to bottom-up triggered attention in audition. Moreover, the effects of cognitive load on performance and brain activity were studied using an auditory working memory task. Corbetta and Shulman s (2002) model of visual attention suggests that what is known as the dorsal attention system (intraparietal sulcus/superior parietal lobule, IPS/SPL and frontal eye field, FEF) is involved in the control of top-down controlled attention, whereas what is known as the ventral attention system (temporo-parietal junction, TPJ and areas of the inferior/middle frontal gyrus, IFG/MFG) is involved in bottom-up triggered attention. The present results show that top-down controlled auditory attention also activates IPS/SPL and FEF. Furthermore, in audition, TPJ and IFG/MFG were activated not only by bottom-up triggered attention, but also by top-down controlled attention. In addition, the posterior cerebellum and thalamus were activated by top-down controlled attention shifts and the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) was activated by to-be-ignored, but attention-catching salient changes in auditory input streams. VMPFC may be involved in the evaluation of environmental events causing the bottom-up triggered engagement of attention. Auditory working memory activated a brain network that largely overlapped with the one activated by top-down controlled attention. The present results also provide further evidence of the role of the cerebellum in cognitive processing: During auditory working memory tasks, both activity in the posterior cerebellum (the crus I/II) and reaction speed increased when the cognitive load increased. Based on the present results and earlier theories on the role of the cerebellum in cognitive processing, the function of the posterior cerebellum in cognitive tasks may be related to the optimization of response speed.
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Low-molecular-mass organogelators (LMOGs) based on photochromic molecules aggregate in selected solvents to form gels through various spatio-temporal interactions. The factors that control the mode of aggregation of the chromophoric core in the LMOGs during gelation, gelation-induced changes in fluorescence, the formation of stacked superstructures of extended pi-conjugated systems, and so forth are discussed with selected examples. Possible ways of generating various light-harvesting assemblies are proposed, and some unresolved questions, future challenges, and their possible solutions on this topic are presented.
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We study the performance of greedy scheduling in multihop wireless networks where the objective is aggregate utility maximization. Following standard approaches, we consider the dual of the original optimization problem. Optimal scheduling requires selecting independent sets of maximum aggregate price, but this problem is known to be NP-hard. We propose and evaluate a simple greedy heuristic. We suggest how the greedy heuristic can be implemented in a distributed manner. We evaluate an analytical bound in detail, for the special case of a line graph and also provide a loose bound on the greedy heuristic for the case of an arbitrary graph.
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The present trend in the industry is towards the use of power transistors in the development of efficient Pulsewidth Modulated (PWM) inverters, because of their operation at high frequency, simplicity of turn-off, and low commutation losses compared to the technology using thyristors. But the protection of power transistors, minimization of switching power loss, and design of base drive circuit are very important for a reliable operation of the system. The requirements, analysis, and a simplified procedure for calculation of the switching-aid network components are presented. The transistor is protected against short circuit using a modified autoregulated and autoprotection drive circuit. The experimental results show that the switching power loss and voltage stress in the device can be reduced by suitable choice of the switching-aid network component values.
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The assumption of nodes in a cooperative communication relay network operating in synchronous fashion is often unrealistic. In the present paper we consider two different models of asynchronous operation in cooperative-diversity networks experiencing slow fading and examine the corresponding diversity-multiplexing tradeoffs (DMT). For both models, we propose protocols and distributed space-time codes that asymptotically achieve the transmit diversity bound for all multiplexing gains and for number of relays N >= 2.
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We study sensor networks with energy harvesting nodes. The generated energy at a node can be stored in a buffer. A sensor node periodically senses a random field and generates a packet. These packets are stored in a queue and transmitted using the energy available at that time at the node. For such networks we develop efficient energy management policies. First, for a single node, we obtain policies that are throughput optimal, i.e., the data queue stays stable for the largest possible data rate. Next we obtain energy management policies which minimize the mean delay in the queue. We also compare performance of several easily implementable suboptimal policies. A greedy policy is identified which, in low SNR regime, is throughput optimal and also minimizes mean delay. Next using the results for a single node, we develop efficient MAC policies.
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Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.
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Hierarchical Bayesian models can assimilate surveillance and ecological information to estimate both invasion extent and model parameters for invading plant pests spread by people. A reliability analysis framework that can accommodate multiple dispersal modes is developed to estimate human-mediated dispersal parameters for an invasive species. Uncertainty in the observation process is modelled by accounting for local natural spread and population growth within spatial units. Broad scale incursion dynamics are based on a mechanistic gravity model with a Weibull distribution modification to incorporate a local pest build-up phase. The model uses Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to infer the probability of colonisation times for discrete spatial units and to estimate connectivity parameters between these units. The hierarchical Bayesian model with observational and ecological components is applied to a surveillance dataset for a spiralling whitefly (Aleurodicus dispersus) invasion in Queensland, Australia. The model structure provides a useful application that draws on surveillance data and ecological knowledge that can be used to manage the risk of pest movement.
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More than 5 million timber utility poles are currently in-service throughout Australia’s energy networks. Most were produced from select native forest-grown hardwood species having the required structural characteristics and naturally-durable heartwood. Anecdotal evidence suggests that up to 70% of the timber poles that are currently in-service were installed over the 20 years following the end of World War Two, and these poles are likely to require replacement or remedial maintenance over the next decade. The purposes of this review were to clarify the supply and demand situation for traditional timber poles, and to investigate alternatives in terms of their potential availability and suitability.
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We carried out a discriminant analysis with identity by descent (IBD) at each marker as inputs, and the sib pair type (affected-affected versus affected-unaffected) as the output. Using simple logistic regression for this discriminant analysis, we illustrate the importance of comparing models with different number of parameters. Such model comparisons are best carried out using either the Akaike information criterion (AIC) or the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). When AIC (or BIC) stepwise variable selection was applied to the German Asthma data set, a group of markers were selected which provide the best fit to the data (assuming an additive effect). Interestingly, these 25-26 markers were not identical to those with the highest (in magnitude) single-locus lod scores.
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Background A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7–December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia. Method We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space–time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors. Results The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: −0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): −0.370–−0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: −0.003; 95% CI: −0.004–−0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007–0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 across Queensland over the epidemic period. High random effects of estimated transmission rates were apparent in remote areas and some postal areas with higher proportion of indigenous populations and smaller overall populations. Conclusions Local SEIFA and local atmospheric conditions were associated with the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. The more populated regions displayed consistent and synchronized epidemics with low average transmission rates. The less populated regions had high average transmission rates with more variations during the H1N1 epidemic period.
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A parentheses-free code is suggested for the description of two-terminal electrical networks for computer analysis.
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The city system has been a prevailing research issue in the fields of urban geography and regional economics. Not only do the relationships between cities in the city system exist in the form of rankings, but also in a more general network form. Previous work has examined the spatial structure of the city system in terms of its separate industrial networks, such as in transportation and economic activity, but little has been done to compare different networks. To rectify this situation, this study analyzes and reveals the spatial structural features of China’s city system by comparing its transportation and economic urban networks, thus providing new avenues for research on China’s city network. The results indicate that these two networks relate with each other by sharing structural equivalence with a basic diamond structure and a layered intercity structure decreasing outwards from the national centers. A decoupling effect also exists between them as the transportation network contributes to a balanced regional development, while the economic network promotes agglomeration economies. The law of economic development and the government both play important roles in the articulation between these two networks, and the gap between them can be shortened by related policy reforms and the improvement of the transportation network.
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Motivated by the analysis of the Australian Grain Insect Resistance Database (AGIRD), we develop a Bayesian hurdle modelling approach to assess trends in strong resistance of stored grain insects to phosphine over time. The binary response variable from AGIRD indicating presence or absence of strong resistance is characterized by a majority of absence observations and the hurdle model is a two step approach that is useful when analyzing such a binary response dataset. The proposed hurdle model utilizes Bayesian classification trees to firstly identify covariates and covariate levels pertaining to possible presence or absence of strong resistance. Secondly, generalized additive models (GAMs) with spike and slab priors for variable selection are fitted to the subset of the dataset identified from the Bayesian classification tree indicating possibility of presence of strong resistance. From the GAM we assess trends, biosecurity issues and site specific variables influencing the presence of strong resistance using a variable selection approach. The proposed Bayesian hurdle model is compared to its frequentist counterpart, and also to a naive Bayesian approach which fits a GAM to the entire dataset. The Bayesian hurdle model has the benefit of providing a set of good trees for use in the first step and appears to provide enough flexibility to represent the influence of variables on strong resistance compared to the frequentist model, but also captures the subtle changes in the trend that are missed by the frequentist and naive Bayesian models. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.