Bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregressive time series

The calculation of interval forecasts for highly persistent autoregressive (AR) time series based on the bootstrap is considered. Three methods are considered for countering the small-sample bias of least-squares estimation for processes which have roots close to the unit circle: a bootstrap bias-corrected OLS estimator; the use of the Roy–Fuller estimator in place of OLS; and the use of the Andrews–Chen estimator in place of OLS. All three methods of bias correction yield superior results to the bootstrap in the absence of bias correction. Of the three correction methods, the bootstrap prediction intervals based on the Roy–Fuller estimator are generally superior to the other two. The small-sample performance of bootstrap prediction intervals based on the Roy–Fuller estimator are investigated when the order of the AR model is unknown, and has to be determined using an information criterion.

The absent body: representations of dying early modern women in a selection of seventeenth-century diaries

This article seeks to explore the absence of the body in the depiction of dying women in a selection of seventeenth-century diaries. It considers the cultural forces that made this absence inevitable, and the means by which the physical body was replaced in death by a spiritual presence. The elevation of a dying woman from physical carer to spiritual nurturer in the days before death ensured that gender codes were not broken. The centrality of the body of the dying woman, within a female circle of care and support, was paradoxically juxtaposed with an effacement of the body in descriptions of a good death. In death, a woman might achieve the stillness, silence and compliance so essential to perfect early modern womanhood, and retrospective diary entries can achieve this ideal by replacing the body with images that deflect from the essential physicality of the woman.

Sustainability assessment indicators and methodology for intelligent buildings

The sustainable intelligent building is a building that has the best combination of environmental, social, economic and technical values. And its sustainability assessment is related with system engineering methods and multi-criteria decision-making. Therefore firstly, the wireless monitoring system of sustainable parameters for intelligent buildings is achieved; secondly, the indicators and key issues based on the “whole life circle” for sustainability of intelligent buildings are researched; thirdly, the sustainable assessment model identified on the structure entropy and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is proposed.

Teaching and learning Chinese: heritage language classroom discourse in Montreal

This paper explores issues of teaching and learning Chinese as a heritage language in a Chinese heritage language school, the Zhonguo Saturday School, in Montreal, Quebec. With a student population of more than 1000, this school is the largest of the eight Chinese Heritage Language schools in Montreal. Students participating in this study were from seven different classes (grade K, two, three, four, five, six, and special class), their ages ranging from 4 to 13 years. The study took place over a period of two years between 2000 and 2002. Focusing on primary level classroom discourse and drawing on the works of Vygotsky and Bakhtin, I examine how teachers and students use language to communicate, and how their communication mediates teaching, learning and heritage language acquisition. Data sources include classroom observations, interviews with students and their teachers, students’ writings, and video and audio taping of classroom activities. Implications for heritage language development and maintenance are discussed with reference to the findings of this study.

Aretusa: continuity, rupture, and space for intervention, 1944-1946

This article focuses on the cultural activity of Aretusa (1944-1946), a journal that was deeply connected to the inner circle of philosopher and politician Benedetto Croce (1866-1952). The article analyses the role played by periodical editors Francesco Flora (1891-1962) and Carlo Muscetta (1912-2004) in shaping the mission and direction of this journal. By drawing on Pierre Bourdieu’s theory of habitus, and the notion of hysteresis in particular, this study details the factors influencing the aesthetic dispositions, political positioning, and the wider impact of historical circumstances on the cultural practice of each editor while at the helm of the review.

For the public without the public

How is the notion of public interest operationalised in the regulatory practices of the International Public Sector Accounting Standards Board (IPSASB)? A fundamental objective in setting international accounting standards for both the private and public sector is to serve the ‘public interest’. Who or what constitutes ‘public interest’ however remains a highly complex and controversial issue. Private sector financial reporting research posits that users (of financial information) are used as a proxy for the ‘public’ and users are further refined to current and potential investors - a small proportion of the public. The debates surrounding public interest are even more contentious in public sector financial reporting which deals with ‘public’ (tax payers’) money. In our study we use Bourdieu’s notion of semi-homogenous fields to show how autonomous and heteronomous pressures from the epistemic community of the accounting profession and political/government interests compete for the right to define the public interest and determine how (by what accounting solutions) this interest is best served. This is a theoretical study grounded in the analysis of empirical data from interviews with the board members of the IPSASB. The main contribution of the paper is to further our understanding of the perceptions of the main decision makers from the ‘inner regulatory circle’ with regards to the problematic construct of public interest. The main findings suggest a paternal and un-reflexive attitude of the board members leading to the conclusion that the public have no real voice in these matters.

Cue properties change timing strategies in group movement synchronisation

To maintain synchrony in group activities, each individual within the group must continuously correct their movements to remain in time with the temporal cues available. Cues might originate from one or more members of the group. Current research suggests that when synchronising movements, individuals optimise their performance in terms of minimising variability of timing errors (asynchronies) between external cues and their own movements. However, the cost of this is an increase in the timing variability of their own movements. Here we investigate whether an individual’s timing strategy changes according to the task, in a group scenario. To investigate this, we employed a novel paradigm that positioned six individuals to form two chains with common origin and termination on the circumference of a circle. We found that participants with access to timing cues from only one other member used a strategy to minimise their asynchrony variance. In contrast, the participant at the common termination of the two chains, who was required to integrate timing cues from two members, used a strategy that minimised movement variability. We conclude that humans are able to flexibly switch timekeeping strategies to maintain task demands and thus optimise the temporal performance of their movements.

The Coronation mantle and the Westminster sanctuary pavement

The Great Sanctuary pavement at Westminster Abbey, on which the kings of England were crowned, features a design of rotated squares, around a central roundel of unusual Egyptian alabaster, set within a circle of bright blue glass. The roundel’s visual resemblance to the world and the firmament is underlined by a surrounding inscription, identifying it as the world, the macrocosm. This paper proposes that the design and meaning of the Great Sanctuary pavement reflect the square macrocosmic mantle in which the English king was wrapped during the coronation ceremony. This paper underlines the special nature of the English coronation mantle within the context of other royal and imperial cosmic mantles. Its square form was unique, and it featured in the English coronation liturgies in a way that European mantles did not. The English liturgies stressed its role as a representation of the world or macrocosm

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on transatlantic flight routes and clear-air turbulence

The variation of wind-optimal transatlantic flight routes and their turbulence potential is investigated to understand how upper-level winds and large-scale flow patterns can affect the efficiency and safety of long-haul flights. In this study, the wind-optimal routes (WORs) that minimize the total flight time by considering wind variations are modeled for flights between John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) in New York, New York, and Heathrow Airport (LHR) in London, United Kingdom, during two distinct winter periods of abnormally high and low phases of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection patterns. Eastbound WORs approximate the JFK–LHR great circle (GC) route following northerly shifted jets in the +NAO period. Those WORs deviate southward following southerly shifted jets during the −NAO period, because eastbound WORs fly closely to the prevailing westerly jets to maximize tailwinds. Westbound WORs, however, spread meridionally to avoid the jets near the GC in the +NAO period to minimize headwinds. In the −NAO period, westbound WORs are north of the GC because of the southerly shifted jets. Consequently, eastbound WORs are faster but have higher probabilities of encountering clear-air turbulence than westbound ones, because eastbound WORs are close to the jet streams, especially near the cyclonic shear side of the jets in the northern (southern) part of the GC in the +NAO (−NAO) period. This study suggests how predicted teleconnection weather patterns can be used for long-haul strategic flight planning, ultimately contributing to minimizing aviation’s impact on the environment

Evaluation of three indices for biofilm accumulation on complete dentures

Objectives: The objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy and reproducibility of three complete denture biofilm indices (Prosthesis Hygiene Index; Jeganathan et al. Index; Budtz-J circle divide rgensen Index) by means of a computerised comparison method. Background: Clinical studies into denture hygiene have employed a large number of biofilm indices among their outcome variables. However, the knowledge about the validity of these indices is still scarce. Materials and methods: Sixty-two complete denture wearers were selected. The internal surfaces of the upper complete dentures were stained (5% erythrosine) and photographed. The slides were projected on paper, and the biofilm indices were applied over the photos by means of a scoring method. For the computerised method, the areas (total and biofilm-covered) were measured by dedicated software (Image Tool). In addition, to compare the results of the computerised method and Prosthetic Hygiene Index, a new scoring scale (including four and five graded) was introduced. For the Jeganathan et al. and Budtz-J circle divide rgensen indices, the original scales were used. Values for each index were compared with the computerised method by the Friedman test. Their reproducibility was measured by means of weighed kappa. Significance for both tests was set at 0.05. Results: The indices tested provided similar mean measures but they tended to overestimate biofilm coverage when compared with the computerised method (p < 0.001). Agreement between the Prosthesis Hygiene Index and the computerised method was not significant, regardless of the scale used. Jeghanathan et al. Index showed weak agreement, and consistent results were found for Budtz-Jorgensen Index (kappa = 0.19 and 0.39 respectively). Conclusion: Assessment of accuracy for the biofilm indices showed instrument bias that was similar among the tested methods. Weak inter-instrument reproducibility was found for the indices, except for the Budtz-J circle divide rgensen Index. This should be the method of choice for clinical studies when more sophisticated approaches are not possible.

The old metal-poor open cluster ESO 92-SC05: accreted from a dwarf galaxy ?

The study of old open clusters outside the solar circle can bring constraints on formation scenarios of the outer disc. In particular, accretion of dwarf galaxies has been proposed as a likely mechanism in the area. We use BVI photometry for determining fundamental parameters of the faint open cluster ESO 92-SC05. Colour-magnitude diagrams are compared with Padova isochrones, in order to derive age, reddening and distance. We derive a reddening E(B - V) = 0.17, and an old age of similar to 6.0 Gyr. It is one of the rare open clusters known to be older than 5 Gyr. A metallicity of Z similar to 0.004 or [M/H] similar to -0.7 is found. The rather low metallicity suggests that this cluster might be the result of an accretion episode of a dwarf galaxy.

On the mass distribution of neutron stars

The distribution of masses for neutron stars is analysed using the Bayesian statistical inference, evaluating the likelihood of the proposed Gaussian peaks by using 54 measured points obtained in a variety of systems. The results strongly suggest the existence of a bimodal distribution of the masses, with the first peak around 1.37 M(circle dot) and a much wider second peak at 1.73 M(circle dot). The results support earlier views related to the different evolutionary histories of the members for the first two peaks, which produces a natural separation (even if no attempt to `label` the systems has been made here). They also accommodate the recent findings of similar to M(circle dot) masses quite naturally. Finally, we explore the existence of a subgroup around 1.25 M(circle dot), finding weak, if any, evidence for it. This recently claimed low-mass subgroup, possibly related to the O-Mg-Ne core collapse events, has a monotonically decreasing likelihood and does not stand out clearly from the rest of the sample.

Gas streaming motions towards the nucleus of M81

We present two-dimensional stellar and gaseous kinematics of the inner 120 x 250 pc2 of the LINER/Seyfert 1 galaxy M81, from optical spectra obtained with the Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph (GMOS) integral field spectrograph on the Gemini-North telescope at a spatial resolution of approximate to 10 pc. The stellar velocity field shows circular rotation and, overall, is very similar to the published large-scale velocity field, but deviations are observed close to the minor axis which can be attributed to stellar motions possibly associated with a nuclear bar. The stellar velocity dispersion of the bulge is 162 +/- 15 km s-1, in good agreement with previous measurements and leading to a black hole mass of M(BH) = 5.5+3.6(-2.0) x 107 M(circle dot) based on the M(BH)-Sigma relationship. The gas kinematics is dominated by non-circular motions and the subtraction of the stellar velocity field reveals blueshifts of approximate to-100 km s-1 on the far side of the galaxy and a few redshifts on the near side. These characteristics can be interpreted in terms of streaming towards the centre if the gas is in the plane. On the basis of the observed velocities and geometry of the flow, we estimate a mass inflow rate in ionized gas of approximate to 4.0 x 10-3 M(circle dot) yr-1, which is of the order of the accretion rate necessary to power the LINER nucleus of M81. We have also applied the technique of principal component analysis (PCA) to our data, which reveals the presence of a rotating nuclear gas disc within approximate to 50 pc from the nucleus and a compact outflow, approximately perpendicular to the disc. The PCA combined with the observed gas velocity field shows that the nuclear disc is being fed by gas circulating in the galaxy plane. The presence of the outflow is supported by a compact jet seen in radio observations at a similar orientation, as well as by an enhancement of the [O i]/H alpha line ratio, probably resulting from shock excitation of the circumnuclear gas by the radio jet. With these observations we are thus resolving both the feeding - via the nuclear disc and observed gas inflow, and the feedback - via the outflow, around the low-luminosity active nucleus of M81.

Random primordial magnetic fields and the gas content of dark matter haloes

We recently predicted the existence of random primordial magnetic fields (RPMFs) in the form of randomly oriented cells with dipole-like structure with a cell size L(0) and an average magnetic field B(0). Here, we investigate models for primordial magnetic field with a similar web-like structure, and other geometries, differing perhaps in L(0) and B(0). The effect of RPMF on the formation of the first galaxies is investigated. The filtering mass, M(F), is the halo mass below which baryon accretion is severely depressed. We show that these RPMF could influence the formation of galaxies by altering the filtering mass and the baryon gas fraction of a halo, f(g). The effect is particularly strong in small galaxies. We find, for example, for a comoving B(0) = 0.1 mu G, and a reionization epoch that starts at z(s) = 11 and ends at z(e) = 8, for L(0) = 100 pc at z = 12, the f(g) becomes severely depressed for M < 10(7) M(circle dot), whereas for B(0) = 0 the f(g) becomes severely depressed only for much smaller masses, M < 10(5) M(circle dot). We suggest that the observation of M(F) and f(g) at high redshifts can give information on the intensity and structure of primordial magnetic fields.

Nuclear and extended spectra of NGC 1068-I. Hints from near-infrared spectroscopy

We report the first simultaneous zJHK spectroscopy on the archetypical Seyfert 2 galaxy NGC 1068 covering the wavelength region 0.9-2.4 mu m. The slit, aligned in the north-south direction and centred in the optical nucleus, maps a region 300 pc in radius at subarcsec resolution, with a spectral resolving power of 360 km s-1. This configuration allows us to study the physical properties of the nuclear gas including that of the north side of the ionization cone, map the strong excess of continuum emission in the K band and attributed to dust and study the variations, both in flux and profile, in the emission lines. Our results show the following. (1) Mid- to low-ionization emission lines are split into two components, whose relative strengths vary with the position along the slit and seem to be correlated with the jet. (2) The coronal lines are single-peaked and are detected only in the central few hundred of pc from the nucleus. (3) The absorption lines indicate the presence of intermediate age stellar population, which might be a significant contributor to the continuum in the near-IR spectra. (4) Through some simple photoionization models we find photoionization as the main mechanism powering the emitting gas. (5) Calculations using stellar features point to a mass concentration inside the 100-200 pc of about 1010 M(circle dot).