Applying qualitative reasoning to finance

Qualitative reasoning has traditionally been applied in the domain of physical systems, where there are well established and understood laws governing the behaviour of each `component' in the system. Such application has shown that it is possible to produce models which can be used for explaining and predicting the behaviour of physical phenomena and also trouble-shooting. The principles underlying the theory ensure that the models are robust and exhibit consistent behaviour under all conditions. This research examines the validity of applying the theory in the financial domain where such laws may not exist or if they do, may not be universally applicable. In particular, it investigates how far these principles and techniques may be applied in the construction of financial analysis models. Because of the inherent differences in the nature of these two domains, it is argued that a different qualitative value system ought to be employed. The dissertation enlarges on the constraints this places on model descriptions and the effect it may have on the power and usefulness of the resulting models. It also describes the implementation of a system that investigates the implications of applying this theory by way of testing it on situations drawn from both text-books and published financial information.

The finance of biotechnology:investment in new biotechnology firms by British venture capitalists-attitudes to, and evaluation of, business proposals

A notable feature of the recent commercialisation of biotechnology has been the success of 200 or so new firms, established in America since 1976, in exploiting specialised market niches. A key factor in their formation has been the ready availability of venture capital funding. These firms have been instrumental in establishing America's lead in exploiting biotechnology. It is this example which Britain has attempted to emulate as part of its strategy for developing its own biotechnology capabilities. This thesis investigated some aspects of the relationship between biotechnology and venture capital, concentrating on the determinants of the venture capitalist's investment decision. Following an extensive literature survey, two hypothetical business proposals were used to find what venture capitalists themselves consider to be the key elements of this decision. It was found that venture capitalists invest in people, not products, and businesses, not industries. It was concluded that venture capital-backed small firms should, therefore, be seen as an adjunct to the development of biotechnology in Britain, rather than as a substitute for a co-ordinated, co-operative strategy involving Government, the financial institutions, industry and academia. This is chiefly because the small size of the UK's domestic market means that many potentially important innovations in biotechnology may continue to be lost, since the short term identification of market opportunities for biotechnology products will dictate that they are insupportable in Britain alone. In addition, the data analysis highlighted some interesting methodological issues concerning the investigation of investment decision making. These related especially to shortcomings in the use of scoresheets and questionnaires in research in this area. The conclusion here was that future research should concentrate on the reasons why an individual reaches an investment decision. It is argued that only in this way can the nature of the evaluation procedures employed by venture capitalists be properly understood.

How SME owners’ characteristics influences external advice and access to finance

This paper aims to investigate the linkage between the use of external advice and access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the UK, with particular consideration of differences in personal characteristics: gender, ethnicity and education. The approach adopted for the research is a telephone survey conducted by the Barclays small business research team in late 2005 on behalf of the authors. These data are quantitative in nature and involve a large sample of 400 SMEs with specific questions analysed by gender, ethnicity and education level. The approach adopted is robust and empirically sound and is a long established research methodology. We find that there appears to be a correlation between the provision of external advice and the ability to raise bank finance. Furthermore, there are clear gender, ethnic and educational differentials in the use of particular sources of advice, for example: Gender • men and women are equally likely to use accountants as sources of advice. • men are more likely to use family and friends and solicitors. • women, however, are around twice as likely to access external advice from Business Link and Enterprise Agencies. Ethnicity • family and friends is predominant amongst Asians or black respondents and the other ethnic group, which is also slightly true of accountants and solicitors. • ethnic minority respondents were considerably less likely to use Business Link/ Enterprise Agencies. Education • graduates are most likely to use solicitors and accountants, whilst they are very low users of advice from family and friends and Business Links/Enterprise Agencies. • O level and A level educated respondents predominate in family and friends and Business Link/ Enterprise Agencies.

Export credit finance with special reference to EEC countries

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Black and minority ethnic graduate entrepreneurs: motivations, characteristics and access to finance

This paper draws upon four case studies to examine characteristics, entrepreneurial motivations and access to finance of black and minority ethnic (BME) graduates in the UK. We find that BME graduates starting a business are motivated by a desire to “do better”, and rely heavily on personal savings and family sources for start-up capital. In addition: • There is no conclusive evidence that suggests in this study that BME graduates entered entrepreneurship because of unemployment; with the exception of a few, all had jobs prior to entering self employment. • “Glass ceilings” were often cited by participants of the case studies as a kind of barrier, but there was reluctance to specify exactly what that meant. • Also, lack of satisfaction from working for others is considered to be a strong motivator for entering self-employment but other reasons, to be one’s own boss and the prospect of higher earnings, are also strong motivators. There is, therefore, a need for support agencies and universities to recognise the distinctive nature of BME graduate enterprise in order to provide effective solutions for different groups. This might include a) work experience, b) advice on an adequate capital structure at start up, c) adequate funding and training, and d) appropriate training for all graduates in basic business education.

Access to start up finance for ethnic minority graduate entrepreneurs in the West Midlands: a gendered perspective

This aim of this paper, from a study funded by the National Council for Graduate Entrepreneurship (NCGE), is to explore access to finance for ethnic minority graduate entrepreneurs (EMGEs) with a particular focus on comparisons between different ethnic groups, and men and women. The authors interviewed selected individuals based upon a review of literature on finance for ethnic minority enterprise. A number of key results from the survey, in that EMGEs: • use external finance significantly (more so than non graduates) and encounter barriers in accessing finance at start-up, in particular those belonging to poor families. • rely excessively on personal savings and family finance, at the start-up and long after the start-up stage, that has implications for the optimal capital structure. • start up businesses that are, on average, larger than non-graduate enterprises and have the potential to reduce economic inactivity amongst the ethnic population. • have, in contrast to general graduate start-ups, a high level of unemployment, take a longer period of time to enter employment and there is a higher level of dissatisfaction with career progression. These findings raise the question whether the right financial advice is taken and whether this behaviour constrains EMGEs' expansion.

Firm size, source of finance, and growth:evidence from China

Using a comprehensive firm-level data set from China spanning the period 1998–2005, this study investigates the relationship between firm size, financing sources, and total factor productivity growth. Controlling for the endogeneity of financing sources, we find that firm size plays an important role in the way financial structure affects the growth process. Domestic bank loans are more effective for bigger firms, while self-raised finance is more beneficial to smaller firms’ growth. We also uncover evidence that ownership mediates the relationship between firm size, finance, and growth.

Source of finance, growth and firm size:evidence from China

Using a comprehensive firm-level dataset spanning the period 1998-2005, this paper provides a thorough investigation of the relationship between firm size, total factor productivity growth and financial structure in China, controlling for the endogeneity of the latter. Generally, it finds financing source matters for firms of different size, and the extent to which financing source matters for firm growth is greater for small firms than big firms. Self-raised finance appears to be most effective in promoting small firms to grow, and bank loan seems to be more supportive to big firms. The relationship between size, finance and growth also depends on ownership. In addition, there exist strong complementarities between formal and informal finance, as well as between indigenous and foreign finance.

Global electrification:multinational enterprise and international finance in the history of light and power, 1878-2007

William J. Hausman, Peter Hertner, and Mira Wilkins. Global Electrification: Multinational Enterprise and International Finance in the History of Light and Power, 1878–2007. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2008. xxiv + 487 pp. ISBN 978-0-521-88035-0, $80 (hardcover).

Institutions, finance and the level of development:the impact on entrepreneurship in transition

We investigate the impact of institutions on entrepreneurial entry, based on a large cross-country sample, combining working age population data generated by the GEM project with macro level indicators. Our four key findings indicate that: (a) institutional obstacles to entrepreneurship have different impact in rich countries compared to poor countries; (b) institutional obstacles have a stronger impact on 'opportunity entrepreneurship' than on 'necessity entrepreneurship'; (c) two institutional indicators - property right protection and access to finance - appear to have a dominant impact on entrepreneurship; (d) institutions have a long term impact. More than ten years after the Soviet system imploded in Central and Eastern Europe, these countries still experience significantly lower levels of entrepreneurship than economies coming from different legal traditions.

Finance and entrepreneurial entry

This paper investigates the determinants of both the volume of finance and the sources of finance of business start-ups in 42 countries. Using the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) surveys for 1998-2003, we jointly examine how the institutional business environment and individual characteristics of entrepreneurs affect the financing of entrepreneurs. We find that the property rights system is the most significant determinant of both the total volume of finance and of the use of external finance for the individual start-up project. In addition, our findings suggest that that the supply of informal finance is associated with the higher share of external sources in start-up finance, whereas the size of the formal financial sector appears to play a more important role for the volume of entrepreneurial self-finance. Our results suggest that the use of external finance by start-ups correlates with the extent of financial restrictions in a country in a non-monotonic way. We find that some financial restrictions may enhance the use of external funds by entrepreneurs, yet the sign of this effect reverses and the coefficient becomes stronger for the high level of financial repression by the government. Finally, our findings imply that the characteristics of the start-up finance are also affected by various individual characteristics of entrepreneurs, their growth intentions and ownership structure.

Ownership structure and investment finance in transition economies:a survey of evidence from large firms in Hungary and Poland

Using survey data on 157 large private Hungarian and Polish companies this paper investigates links between ownership structures and CEOs’ expectations with regard to sources of finance for investment. The Bayesian estimation is used to deal with the small sample restrictions, while classical methods provide robustness checks. We found a hump-shaped relationship between ownership concentration and expectations of relying on public equity. The latter is most likely for firms where the largest investor owns between 25 percent and 49 percent of shares, just below the legal control threshold. More profitable firms rely on retained earnings for their investment finance, consistent with the ‘pecking order’ theory of financing. Finally, firms for which the largest shareholder is a domestic institutional investor are more likely to borrow from domestic banks.

Corporate governance and finance in Poland and Russia

This book provides a comparative analysis of the emerging corporate control structures in the transition economies. It details characteristics of corporate governance in the two largest transition economies: Russia and Poland. It explores what kind of ownership structures are emerging in these two countries and to what degree they are they path-dependent and conditional on the initial choice of privatisation methods - fast ownership transfer through the mass privatisation programme and loans-for-equity scheme in Russia, and a more 'organic' growth of the new private sector in Poland. It examines the directions of the subsequent, post-privatisation, secondary ownership flows in both countries and the impact of the government on corporations, implied both by the residual shareholding of the state and by its regulatory and administrative actions.

Polish EU accession in comparative perspective:macroeconomics, finance and the government

This book is a collection of papers that focusses on the macroeconomic and financial aspects of EU accession of its largest new member, Poland, seen in comparative perspective. Two main themes are covered. One relates to empirical estimations, evaluating the effects of integration on fiscal balance, prices, seigniorage wealth and FDI flows. The second theme relates to institutional reform and policy recommendations. Discussion focuses on how transparency and fiscal rules, including those implied by EU accession, may help to reduce the deficit bias in fiscal policy; what is the institutional framework for low inflation and how to make the insurance sector regulation more efficient, including its implications for insurance offer for small and medium-size enterprises. Last but not least, the Irish model of development and the role of the foreign direct investment in it is discussed, including the applicability of the Irish policy in Poland and other new EU member states.