Estimation for the semipareto processes

This paper proposes different estimators for the parameters of SemiPareto and Pareto autoregressive minification processes The asymptotic properties of the estimators are established by showing that the SemiPareto process is α-mixing. Asymptotic variances of different moment and maximum likelihood estimators are compared.

Hydrogeochemical evaluation of inorganics and bioorganics in selected aquatic environments

The present study is an investigation to address relevant chemical aspects of the three varied aquatic environments, such as mangroves, river and the estuary. The sampling locations include a thick mangrove forest with high tidal activity, a mangrove nursery with minimal disturbances and low tidal inundation, a highly polluted riverine system and an estuarine site, as reference. Nutrients and bioorganic compounds in the water column and surface sediment were estimated in an attempt to understand the regeneration properties of these different aquatic systems.Assessment of the trace metal pollution was also carried out.

Modeling and Analysis of Some Heavy Tailed Time Series

The thesis has covered various aspects of modeling and analysis of finite mean time series with symmetric stable distributed innovations. Time series analysis based on Box and Jenkins methods are the most popular approaches where the models are linear and errors are Gaussian. We highlighted the limitations of classical time series analysis tools and explored some generalized tools and organized the approach parallel to the classical set up. In the present thesis we mainly studied the estimation and prediction of signal plus noise model. Here we assumed the signal and noise follow some models with symmetric stable innovations.We start the thesis with some motivating examples and application areas of alpha stable time series models. Classical time series analysis and corresponding theories based on finite variance models are extensively discussed in second chapter. We also surveyed the existing theories and methods correspond to infinite variance models in the same chapter. We present a linear filtering method for computing the filter weights assigned to the observation for estimating unobserved signal under general noisy environment in third chapter. Here we consider both the signal and the noise as stationary processes with infinite variance innovations. We derived semi infinite, double infinite and asymmetric signal extraction filters based on minimum dispersion criteria. Finite length filters based on Kalman-Levy filters are developed and identified the pattern of the filter weights. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods are competent enough in signal extraction for processes with infinite variance.Parameter estimation of autoregressive signals observed in a symmetric stable noise environment is discussed in fourth chapter. Here we used higher order Yule-Walker type estimation using auto-covariation function and exemplify the methods by simulation and application to Sea surface temperature data. We increased the number of Yule-Walker equations and proposed a ordinary least square estimate to the autoregressive parameters. Singularity problem of the auto-covariation matrix is addressed and derived a modified version of the Generalized Yule-Walker method using singular value decomposition.In fifth chapter of the thesis we introduced partial covariation function as a tool for stable time series analysis where covariance or partial covariance is ill defined. Asymptotic results of the partial auto-covariation is studied and its application in model identification of stable auto-regressive models are discussed. We generalize the Durbin-Levinson algorithm to include infinite variance models in terms of partial auto-covariation function and introduce a new information criteria for consistent order estimation of stable autoregressive model.In chapter six we explore the application of the techniques discussed in the previous chapter in signal processing. Frequency estimation of sinusoidal signal observed in symmetric stable noisy environment is discussed in this context. Here we introduced a parametric spectrum analysis and frequency estimate using power transfer function. Estimate of the power transfer function is obtained using the modified generalized Yule-Walker approach. Another important problem in statistical signal processing is to identify the number of sinusoidal components in an observed signal. We used a modified version of the proposed information criteria for this purpose.

Regulation of GABA(A) and glutamate receptor expression, synaptic facilitation and long-term potentiation in the hippocampus of prion mutant mice

Background: Prionopathies are characterized by spongiform brain degeneration, myoclonia, dementia, and periodic electroencephalographic (EEG) disturbances. The hallmark of prioniopathies is the presence of an abnormal conformational isoform (PrP(sc)) of the natural cellular prion protein (PrP(c)) encoded by the Prnp gene. Although several roles have been attributed to PrP(c), its putative functions in neuronal excitability are unknown. Although early studies of the behavior of Prnp knockout mice described minor changes, later studies report altered behavior. To date, most functional PrP(c) studies on synaptic plasticity have been performed in vitro. To our knowledge, only one electrophysiological study has been performed in vivo in anesthetized mice, by Curtis and coworkers. They reported no significant differences in paired-pulse facilitation or LTP in the CA1 region after Schaffer collateral/commissural pathway stimulation. Principal Findings: Here we explore the role of PrP(c) expression in neurotransmission and neural excitability using wild-type, Prnp -/- and PrP(c)-overexpressing mice (Tg20 strain). By correlating histopathology with electrophysiology in living behaving mice, we demonstrate that both Prnp -/- mice but, more relevantly Tg20 mice show increased susceptibility to KA, leading to significant cell death in the hippocampus. This finding correlates with enhanced synaptic facilitation in paired-pulse experiments and hippocampal LTP in living behaving mutant mice. Gene expression profiling using Illumina microarrays and Ingenuity pathways analysis showed that 129 genes involved in canonical pathways such as Ubiquitination or Neurotransmission were co-regulated in Prnp -/- and Tg20 mice. Lastly, RT-qPCR of neurotransmission-related genes indicated that subunits of GABA(A) and AMPA-kainate receptors are co-regulated in both Prnp -/- and Tg20 mice. Conclusions/Significance: Present results demonstrate that PrP(c) is necessary for the proper homeostatic functioning of hippocampal circuits, because of its relationships with GABA(A) and AMPA-Kainate neurotransmission. New PrP(c) functions have recently been described, which point to PrP(c) as a target for putative therapies in Alzheimer's disease. However, our results indicate that a "gain of function" strategy in Alzheimer's disease, or a "loss of function" in prionopathies, may impair PrP(c) function, with devastating effects. In conclusion, we believe that present data should be taken into account in the development of future therapies.

Studies on the Effects of Bottom Trawling on the Benthic Fauna off Veraval Coast, Gujarat

Bottom trawling is one among the most destructive human induced physical disturbances inflicted to seabed and its living communities. The bottom trawls are designed to tow along the sea floor, which on its operation indiscriminately smashes everything on their way crushing, killing, burying and exposing to predators the benthic fauna. Bottom trawling causes physical and biological damages that are irreversible, extensive and long lasting. The commercial trawling fleet of India consists of 29,241 small and medium-fishing boats. The northwest coast of India has the largest fishing fleet consisting of 23,618 mechanized vessels, especially the bottom trawlers. However, attempts were not made to study the impact of bottom trawling along Northwest coast of India. The estimated optimum fleet size of Gujarat is 1,473 mechanised trawlers while 7402 commercial trawlers are operated from the coast of Gujarat. Veraval port was designed initially for 1,200 fishing trawlers but 2793 trawlers are being operated from this port making it the largest trawler port of Gujarat. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of bottom trawling on the substratum and the associated benthic communities of commercial trawling grounds of Veraval coast. The study compared the differences between the samples collected before and after experimental trawling to detect the impacts of bottom trawling. Attempts were made to assess the possible impact of bottom trawling on:(i) the sediment characteristics (ii)the sediment heavy metals (iii) epifauna (iv) macrobenthos and (v) meiobenthos. This study is expected to generate information on trawling impacts of the studied area that will help in better management of the biological diversity and integrity of the benthic fauna off Veraval coast. An exhaustive review on the studies conducted around the world and in India on impact of bottom trawling on the benthic fauna is also detailed.In the present study, the bottom trawling induced variations on sediment organic matter, epifauna, macrobenthos and meiobenthos were evident. It was also observed that the seasonal/ natural variations were more prominent masking the trawling effect on sediment texture and heavy metals. Enforcement of control of excess bottom trawlers and popularization of semi pelagic trawls designed to operate a little distance above the sea bottom for off bottom resources will minimize disturbance on the sea bottom. Training and creating awareness in responsible fishing should be made mandatory requirements, to the coastal communities. They should be made wardens to protect the valuable resources for the benefit of sustainability. To protect the biodiversity and ecosystem health, the imminent need is to survey and make catalogue, identification of sensitive areas or hot spots and to adopt management strategies for the conservation and biodiversity protection of benthic fauna. The present study is a pioneering work carried out along Veraval coast. This thesis will provide a major fillip to the studies on impact of bottom trawling on the benthic fauna along the coast of India.

Biochemical Studies on the Protective Effect of Taurine on Experimentally Induced Fulminat Hepatic Failure in Rats

Fulminant hepatic failure (FHF) is a dramatic and challenging syndrome in clinical medicine. Although an uncommon disorder, it is usually fatal and occurs in previously healthy person. While the causes of FHF remain unclear, viral hepatitis and drug-induced liver injury account for the majority of cases. Hepatitis E causes large-scale epidemics of hepatitis in the Indian subcontinent, involving hundreds of thousands of cases with high mortality. FHF is associated with several clinical features like jaundice, shrunken liver, easy bruising, low levels of serum proteins, fatigue, multi-organ failure etc and metabolic derangements like hypoglycemia, hyperlipidemia, hyponatremia, defective protein synthesis, reduced energy production, decreased rate of urea production etc. These disturbances are predominantly attributed to oxidative stress, membrane destabilization and osmolytic imbalances. The options available for these patients are quite minimal with liver transplantation being one of them. But the procedure is ridden with issues causing it to find less favor among the patients and the caregivers. Use of hepatoprotective and cytoprotective drugs, is being considered to be a more acceptable alternative as a strategy to enhance liver regeneration. In this regard use of taurine a naturally occurring amino acid that plays a crucial role in many physiological processes would prove to be effective. In the present study, hepatoprotective effect of taurine on a rat model of induced FHF was studied. Taurine supplementation has effectively counteracted the metabolic and structural aberrations in the liver caused by D-galactosamine intoxication.

Seasonal and interannual variability of sea level and associated surface meteorological parameters at Cochin

This thesis entitled seasonal and interannual variability of sea level and associated surface meteorological parameters at cochin.The interesting aspect of studying sea level variability on different time scales can be attributed to the diversity of its applications.Study of tides could perhaps be the oldest branch of physical oceanography.The thesis is presented in seven chapters. The first chapter gives, apart from a general introduction, a survey of literature on sea level variability on different time scales - tidal, seasonal and interannual (geological scales excluded), with particular emphasis on the work carried out in the Indian waters. The second chapter is devoted to the study of observed tides at Cochin on seasonal and interannual time scales using hourly water level data for the period 1988-1993. The third chapter describes the long-term climatology of some important surface oceanographic and meteorological parameters (at Cochin) which are supposed to affect the sea level. The fourth chapter addresses the problem of seasonal forecasting of the meteorological and oceanographic parameters at Cochin using autoregressive, sinusoidal and exponentially weighted moving average techniques and testing their accuracy with the observed data for the period 1991-1993. The fifth chapter describes the seasonal cycles of sea level and the driving forces at 16 stations along the Indian subcontinent. It also addresses the observed interannual variability of sea level at 15 stations using available multi-annual data sets. The sixth chapter deals with the problem of coastal trapped waves between Cochin and Beypore off the Kerala coast using sea level and atmospheric pressure data sets for the year 1977. The seventh and the last chapter contains the summary and conclusions and future outlook based on this study.

ARMA modeling of time series based on rational approximation of spectral density function

This study is concerned with Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models of time series. ARMA models form a subclass of the class of general linear models which represents stationary time series, a phenomenon encountered most often in practice by engineers, scientists and economists. It is always desirable to employ models which use parameters parsimoniously. Parsimony will be achieved by ARMA models because it has only finite number of parameters. Even though the discussion is primarily concerned with stationary time series, later we will take up the case of homogeneous non stationary time series which can be transformed to stationary time series. Time series models, obtained with the help of the present and past data is used for forecasting future values. Physical science as well as social science take benefits of forecasting models. The role of forecasting cuts across all fields of management-—finance, marketing, production, business economics, as also in signal process, communication engineering, chemical processes, electronics etc. This high applicability of time series is the motivation to this study.

Survey of coral lagoons of Laksbadweep Atolls using line intercept transect (LIT) technique

The present study aims at surveying the coral lagoons of four islands viz. Kavarathi, Kalpeni, Kadmat and Agathi, which include quantitative survey of the major benthic forms using Line Intercept Transect (LIT) technique and hydrographical study of these lagoon waters The distribution of PHC in the lagoons has also been followed to understand, the effects of introduction of flat bottomed ferry boats to the islands.From a biological monitoring stand point for the assessment of manmade disturbance of the coral reefs, it IS highly essential to identify faunal assemblages which will contain 'flag-stones' specIes as indicators of such disturbances. Among the known faunal assemblages In coral reefs the most diverse groups of sensitive species belongs to bryozoan assemblage. Therefore, the most common species of bryozoans distributed along the atolls and reef flats were collected and described in this work Along with this, bryozoans associated with coral from other parts of Indian ocean have also been added so as to provide a comprehensive picture of the distribution of bryozoans in the coral reefs.

Numerical Simulation of Two-Part Underwater Towing System

The motion instability is an important issue that occurs during the operation of towed underwater vehicles (TUV), which considerably affects the accuracy of high precision acoustic instrumentations housed inside the same. Out of the various parameters responsible for this, the disturbances from the tow-ship are the most significant one. The present study focus on the motion dynamics of an underwater towing system with ship induced disturbances as the input. The study focus on an innovative system called two-part towing. The methodology involves numerical modeling of the tow system, which consists of modeling of the tow-cables and vehicles formulation. Previous study in this direction used a segmental approach for the modeling of the cable. Even though, the model was successful in predicting the heave response of the tow-body, instabilities were observed in the numerical solution. The present study devises a simple approach called lumped mass spring model (LMSM) for the cable formulation. In this work, the traditional LMSM has been modified in two ways. First, by implementing advanced time integration procedures and secondly, use of a modified beam model which uses only translational degrees of freedoms for solving beam equation. A number of time integration procedures, such as Euler, Houbolt, Newmark and HHT-α were implemented in the traditional LMSM and the strength and weakness of each scheme were numerically estimated. In most of the previous studies, hydrodynamic forces acting on the tow-system such as drag and lift etc. are approximated as analytical expression of velocities. This approach restricts these models to use simple cylindrical shaped towed bodies and may not be applicable modern tow systems which are diversed in shape and complexity. Hence, this particular study, hydrodynamic parameters such as drag and lift of the tow-system are estimated using CFD techniques. To achieve this, a RANS based CFD code has been developed. Further, a new convection interpolation scheme for CFD simulation, called BNCUS, which is blend of cell based and node based formulation, was proposed in the study and numerically tested. To account for the fact that simulation takes considerable time in solving fluid dynamic equations, a dedicated parallel computing setup has been developed. Two types of computational parallelisms are explored in the current study, viz; the model for shared memory processors and distributed memory processors. In the present study, shared memory model was used for structural dynamic analysis of towing system, distributed memory one was devised in solving fluid dynamic equations.

Investigation on key molecular targets responsible for antidiabetic properties of Symplocos cochinchinensis (Lour.) S. Moore

Diabetes mellitus is a heterogeneous metabolic disorder characterized by hyperglycemia with disturbances in carbohydrate, protein and lipid metabolism resulting from defects in insulin secretion, insulin action or both. Currently there are 387 million people with diabetes worldwide and is expected to affect 592 million people by 2035. Insulin resistance in peripheral tissues and pancreatic beta cell dysfunction are the major challenges in the pathophysiology of diabetes. Diabetic secondary complications (like liver cirrhosis, retinopathy, microvascular and macrovascular complications) arise from persistent hyperglycemia and dyslipidemia can be disabling or even life threatening. Current medications are effective for control and management of hyperglycemia but undesirable effects, inefficiency against secondary complications and high cost are still serious issues in the present prognosis of this disorder. Hence the search for more effective and safer therapeutic agents of natural origin has been found to be highly demanding and attract attention in the present drug discovery research. The data available from Ayurveda on various medicinal plants for treatment of diabetes can efficiently yield potential new lead as antidiabetic agents. For wider acceptability and popularity of herbal remedies available in Ayurveda scientific validation by the elucidation of mechanism of action is very much essential. Modern biological techniques are available now to elucidate the biochemical basis of the effectiveness of these medicinal plants. Keeping this idea the research programme under this thesis has been planned to evaluate the molecular mechanism responsible for the antidiabetic property of Symplocos cochinchinensis, the main ingredient of Nishakathakadi Kashayam, a wellknown Ayurvedic antidiabetic preparation. A general introduction of diabetes, its pathophysiology, secondary complications and current treatment options, innovative solutions based on phytomedicine etc has been described in Chapter 1. The effect of Symplocos cochinchinensis (SC), on various in vitro biochemical targets relevant to diabetes is depicted in Chapter 2 including the preparation of plant extract. Since diabetes is a multifactorial disease, ethanolic extract of the bark of SC (SCE) and its fractions (hexane, dichloromethane, ethyl acetate and 90 % ethanol) were evaluated by in vitro methods against multiple targets such as control of postprandial hyperglycemia, insulin resistance, oxidative stress, pancreatic beta cell proliferation, inhibition of protein glycation, protein tyrosine phosphatase-1B (PTP-1B) and dipeptidyl peptidase-IV (DPPxxi IV). Among the extracts, SCE exhibited comparatively better activity like alpha glucosidase inhibition, insulin dependent glucose uptake (3 fold increase) in L6 myotubes, pancreatic beta cell regeneration in RIN-m5F and reduced triglyceride accumulation in 3T3-L1 cells, protection from hyperglycemia induced generation of reactive oxygen species in HepG2 cells with moderate antiglycation and PTP-1B inhibition. Chemical characterization by HPLC revealed the superiority of SCE over other extracts due to presence of bioactives (beta-sitosterol, phloretin 2’glucoside, oleanolic acid) in addition to minerals like magnesium, calcium, potassium, sodium, zinc and manganese. So SCE has been subjected to oral sucrose tolerance test (OGTT) to evaluate its antihyperglycemic property in mild diabetic and diabetic animal models. SCE showed significant antihyperglycemic activity in in vivo diabetic models. Chapter 3 highlights the beneficial effects of hydroethanol extract of Symplocos cochinchinensis (SCE) against hyperglycemia associated secondary complications in streptozotocin (60 mg/kg body weight) induced diabetic rat model. Proper sanction had been obtained for all the animal experiments from CSIR-CDRI institutional animal ethics committee. The experimental groups consist of normal control (NC), N + SCE 500 mg/kg bwd, diabetic control (DC), D + metformin 100 mg/kg bwd, D + SCE 250 and D + SCE 500. SCEs and metformin were administered daily for 21 days and sacrificed on day 22. Oral glucose tolerance test, plasma insulin, % HbA1c, urea, creatinine, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), albumin, total protein etc. were analysed. Aldose reductase (AR) activity in the eye lens was also checked. On day 21, DC rats showed significantly abnormal glucose response, HOMA-IR, % HbA1c, decreased activity of antioxidant enzymes and GSH, elevated AR activity, hepatic and renal oxidative stress markers compared to NC. DC rats also exhibited increased level of plasma urea and creatinine. Treatment with SCE protected from the deleterious alterations of biochemical parameters in a dose dependent manner including histopathological alterations in pancreas. SCE 500 exhibited significant glucose lowering effect and decreased HOMA-IR, % HbA1c, lens AR activity, and hepatic, renal oxidative stress and function markers compared to DC group. Considerable amount of liver and muscle glycogen was replenished by SCE treatment in diabetic animals. Although metformin showed better effect, the activity of SCE was very much comparable with this drug. xxii The possible molecular mechanism behind the protective property of S. cochinchinensis against the insulin resistance in peripheral tissue as well as dyslipidemia in in vivo high fructose saturated fat diet model is described in Chapter 4. Initially animal were fed a high fructose saturated fat (HFS) diet for a period of 8 weeks to develop insulin resistance and dyslipidemia. The normal diet control (ND), ND + SCE 500 mg/kg bwd, high fructose saturated fat diet control (HFS), HFS + metformin 100 mg/kg bwd, HFS + SCE 250 and HFS + SCE 500 were the experimental groups. SCEs and metformin were administered daily for the next 3 weeks and sacrificed at the end of 11th week. At the end of week 11, HFS rats showed significantly abnormal glucose and insulin tolerance, HOMA-IR, % HbA1c, adiponectin, lipid profile, liver glycolytic and gluconeogenic enzyme activities, liver and muscle triglyceride accumulation compared to ND. HFS rats also exhibited increased level of plasma inflammatory cytokines, upregulated mRNA level of gluconeogenic and lipogenic genes in liver. HFS exhibited the increased expression of GLUT-2 in liver and decreased expression of GLUT-4 in muscle and adipose. SCE treatment also preserved the architecture of pancreas, liver, and kidney tissues. Treatment with SCE reversed the alterations of biochemical parameters, improved insulin sensitivity by modifying gene expression in liver, muscle and adipose tissues. Overall results suggest that SC mediates the antidiabetic activity mainly via alpha glucosidase inhibition, improved insulin sensitivity, with antiglycation and antioxidant activities.

Subpixel-Filterung für eine autostereoskopische Multiperspektiven-3-D-Darstellung hoher Qualität

Die stereoskopische 3-D-Darstellung beruht auf der naturgetreuen Präsentation verschiedener Perspektiven für das rechte und linke Auge. Sie erlangt in der Medizin, der Architektur, im Design sowie bei Computerspielen und im Kino, zukünftig möglicherweise auch im Fernsehen, eine immer größere Bedeutung. 3-D-Displays dienen der zusätzlichen Wiedergabe der räumlichen Tiefe und lassen sich grob in die vier Gruppen Stereoskope und Head-mounted-Displays, Brillensysteme, autostereoskopische Displays sowie echte 3-D-Displays einteilen. Darunter besitzt der autostereoskopische Ansatz ohne Brillen, bei dem N≥2 Perspektiven genutzt werden, ein hohes Potenzial. Die beste Qualität in dieser Gruppe kann mit der Methode der Integral Photography, die sowohl horizontale als auch vertikale Parallaxe kodiert, erreicht werden. Allerdings ist das Verfahren sehr aufwendig und wird deshalb wenig genutzt. Den besten Kompromiss zwischen Leistung und Preis bieten präzise gefertigte Linsenrasterscheiben (LRS), die hinsichtlich Lichtausbeute und optischen Eigenschaften den bereits früher bekannten Barrieremasken überlegen sind. Insbesondere für die ergonomisch günstige Multiperspektiven-3-D-Darstellung wird eine hohe physikalische Monitorauflösung benötigt. Diese ist bei modernen TFT-Displays schon recht hoch. Eine weitere Verbesserung mit dem theoretischen Faktor drei erreicht man durch gezielte Ansteuerung der einzelnen, nebeneinander angeordneten Subpixel in den Farben Rot, Grün und Blau. Ermöglicht wird dies durch die um etwa eine Größenordnung geringere Farbauflösung des menschlichen visuellen Systems im Vergleich zur Helligkeitsauflösung. Somit gelingt die Implementierung einer Subpixel-Filterung, welche entsprechend den physiologischen Gegebenheiten mit dem in Luminanz und Chrominanz trennenden YUV-Farbmodell arbeitet. Weiterhin erweist sich eine Schrägstellung der Linsen im Verhältnis von 1:6 als günstig. Farbstörungen werden minimiert, und die Schärfe der Bilder wird durch eine weniger systematische Vergrößerung der technologisch unvermeidbaren Trennelemente zwischen den Subpixeln erhöht. Der Grad der Schrägstellung ist frei wählbar. In diesem Sinne ist die Filterung als adaptiv an den Neigungswinkel zu verstehen, obwohl dieser Wert für einen konkreten 3-D-Monitor eine Invariante darstellt. Die zu maximierende Zielgröße ist der Parameter Perspektiven-Pixel als Produkt aus Anzahl der Perspektiven N und der effektiven Auflösung pro Perspektive. Der Idealfall einer Verdreifachung wird praktisch nicht erreicht. Messungen mit Hilfe von Testbildern sowie Schrifterkennungstests lieferten einen Wert von knapp über 2. Dies ist trotzdem als eine signifikante Verbesserung der Qualität der 3-D-Darstellung anzusehen. In der Zukunft sind weitere Verbesserungen hinsichtlich der Zielgröße durch Nutzung neuer, feiner als TFT auflösender Technologien wie LCoS oder OLED zu erwarten. Eine Kombination mit der vorgeschlagenen Filtermethode wird natürlich weiterhin möglich und ggf. auch sinnvoll sein.

"Schwarzer Untertan versus schwarzer Bruder". Bernhard Dernburgs Reformen in den Kolonien Deutsch-Ostafrika, Deutsch-Südwestafrika, Togo und Kamerun

Nachdem sich in der Kolonialkrise von 1906 das Scheitern der ersten Periode deutscher Kolonialherrschaft (1885-1906) offenbarte, wurde Bernhard Dernburg die grundlegende Reorganisation der Kolonialpolitik anvertraut. Als Mann aus der Welt der Banken und Finanzen sollte er die stagnierende Entwicklung der Kolonien mit Hilfe von administrativen und wirtschaftlichen Reformmaßnahmen vorantreiben und gleichzeitig der indigenen Bevölkerung eine humane Behandlung zu garantieren. Um diese Ziele zu erreichen, verabschiedete er Reformen, die eine Rationalisierung und Humanisierung der Arbeiterpolitik vorsahen. Sowohl in der zeitgenössischen Literatur als auch in der aktuellen wissenschaftlichen Forschung wird der Amtsantritt Bernhard Dernburgs zum Leiter der Kolonialabteilung im Jahre 1906 als der „Beginn einer neuen humanen Ära“ deutscher Kolonialpolitik oder als „Wandel zum Besseren“ bezeichnet. Die Dissertation „Schwarzer Untertan versus Schwarzer Bruder. Bernhard Dernburgs Reformen in den Kolonien Deutsch-Ostafrika, Deutsch-Südwestafrika, Togo und Kamerun“ untersucht die Intention, Akzeptanz, Umsetzung und Auswirkung der reformatorischen Eingeborenenpolitik und klärt, ob die Beurteilung der Ära Dernburg (1906-1910) in der zeitgenössischen und aktuellen Forschung eine Berechtigung hat. Obwohl zumindest in der Theorie sein Konzept einer rationalen und humanen Kolonialpolitik sicherlich eine Abkehr von der bisher betriebenen Kolonialpolitik bedeutete, zeigt sich jedoch bei der Umsetzung der Reformen eine deutliche Diskrepanz zwischen Intention und Realität. Auch wenn zumindest die Bestrebung Dernburgs zur Verrechtlichung der indigenen Arbeitsverhältnisse gewürdigt werden sollte, so muss doch konstatiert werden, dass es in der „Ära Dernburg“ definitiv nicht zu einer grundlegenden Verbesserung der indigenen Lebenssituation in den deutschen Kolonien kam. Im Gegenteil, die Dernburgsche Reformpolitik beschleunigte vielmehr den Verelendungsprozess der indigenen Bevölkerung. In allen afrikanischen Kolonien verschlechterten sich mit der Intensivierung der Verwaltung die sozialen und menschlichen Beziehungen zwischen Afrikanern und Europäern. Vieles von dem, was Dernburg in seinem Programm propagierte, konnte nicht erreicht werden. Zwar führte Dernburg in Deutsch-Ostafrika, Deutsch-Südwestafrika und in Kamerun eine rechtlich bindende Arbeiterverordnung ein, jedoch unterschieden sich die Bestimmungen zum Teil erheblich voneinander, so dass von einer einheitlichen Modernisierung des kolonialen Arbeitsrechts nicht die Rede sein kann. Viele arbeitsrechtliche Bereiche, wie z.B. die Arbeiteranwerbung, Lohnzahlung, Minderjährigenschutz, Vertragsdauer, Arbeitszeit, Verpflegung und Unterkunft wurden nur unzureichend geregelt. Ähnlich negativ muss auch die Reformierung der Strafrechtspflege bewertet werden. Die Kodifizierung eines Eingeborenenstrafrechts scheiterte sowohl am Widerstand der lokalen Verwaltung als auch am Grundkonsens der Rechtmäßigkeit einer Rassenjustiz. Kolonialpolitik war auch in der „Ära Dernburg“ nichts anderes als „rohe Ausbeutungspolitik“, die zur Lösung der Arbeiterfrage beitragen sollte. Aber gerade hier, bei der Mobilisierung von afrikanischen Lohnarbeitern, war der Kolonialstaatssekretär nicht etwa mit einer „Arbeiterfürsorgepolitik“, sondern mit der Fortführung der Enteignungs- und Zwangsmaßnahmen erfolgreich gewesen. Insgesamt ist ein deutlicher Anstieg an afrikanischen Arbeitern in europäischen Unternehmen zu verzeichnen, was darauf schließen lässt, dass Dernburgs Verordnungen einen günstigen Einfluss auf die Arbeiterfrage ausgeübt haben. Obwohl nicht von einem grundlegenden Neuanfang der Kolonialpolitik gesprochen werden kann, sollte ebenso wenig bezweifelt werden, dass sich die deutsche Kolonialpolitik nicht unter Dernburg veränderte. Größere indigene Aufstände und Unruhen blieben aus, so dass während seiner Amtszeit eine systematische wirtschaftliche Erschließung der Kolonien beginnen konnte.

Exploratory and dust-bathing behaviour in laying hens kept in commercial aviaries and furnished cages

The aim of the present thesis was to identify management factors that affect the extent of exploratory behaviour (ground pecking, scratching) as well as quantitative and qualitative as-pects of dust-bathing behaviour in laying hens kept in commercial furnished cages (‘small group housing’) and aviaries. Based on the results, it should be considered which management measures can be recommended for farmers to enhance hen welfare. The feasibility of direct observations of dust-bathing behaviour as well as video observations of exploratory and dust-bathing behaviour was tested in two aviaries. The direct observations were judged to be unfeasible under the conditions encountered. For the analysis of the video recordings, different sampling intervals for instantaneous scan sampling, different extents of observation time, and intra- and inter-observer reliabilities were compared and the most ap-propriate observation scheme selected. Applying the selected scheme (observing the first 16 minutes of every hour distributed over two consecutive light days with a sample interval of two minutes), within the range of environmental conditions found in 22 aviaries, pecking, scratching and dust-bathing behaviour was performed on average 25, 2 and 7 % of the obser-vation time. Hen numbers in the litter were positively associated with stocking density and group size. More scratching was performed with increasing litter height as well as in humid litter. If no litter had been provided, thus substrate consisted of dust and faeces, a reduced proportion of dust-bathing was found. The same method was then used in 16 furnished cage systems. On average 12 % of the total hen number were found on the scratching mats. The hens spent 8 % of the observed time pecking at the mat, 4 % dust-bathing and 0.4 % scratch-ing. Higher proportions were found on the mats and more dust-bathing behaviour occurred, if substrate was provided. Also with increasing light intensity and stocking density more hens were observed on the mats. More pecking and scratching occurred in conditions of higher stocking density, probably due to social facilitation, and of increased mat area per hen. With increasing mat numbers per cage less pecking was observed. Wider mats led to increased dust-bathing behaviour. Finally, 129 dust-baths recorded in 17 aviaries were analysed in detail. On average they lasted 17 minutes, with the tossing phase taking 69 % of this time, including on average 2 vertical wing shakes and 3 scratches with one leg per minute tossing phase. Dust-bath duration de-creased with increasing litter height. Litter type influenced all recorded parameters: dust-bath duration was highest on straw and lowest on fine material and fine material mixed with straw, where on both also the proportion of the tossing phase was lowest. The number of vertical wing shakes during the dust-bath was highest on straw and lowest on fine material mixed with straw as against the frequency of vertical wing shaking that was lowest on straw and highest on fine material. If dust-bathing hens were disturbed twice or more, dust-bathing duration decreased. With increasing light intensity a decreased proportion of the tossing phase as well as a reduced number of vertical wing shakes were recorded. Possibly the light stimulated the hens to dust-bath more often with less tossing behaviour per performance. The observed variation of the dust-bathing parameters could reflect successful adaptation or frustration of the hens. The litter and light conditions on the investigated farms were predominantly restrictive in terms of stimulation of exploration and dust-bathing behaviour. Thus, it was only possible to analyse possible associations between these factors and exploration and dust-bathing behav-iour within the range found. Based on the results the following management recommendations can be given: To allow hens in furnished cages more normal activity, substrate availability should be improved and mat space and light intensity increased. With regard to aviaries as well litter availability should be improved. Litter height should not be too low. Disturbances during dust-bathing should be prevented, but no influencing factors could be identified.

The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.