Prediction of postprandial blood glucose under intra-patient variability and uncertainty and its use in the design of insulin dosing strategies for type 1 diabetic patients

In this thesis I propose a novel method to estimate the dose and injection-to-meal time for low-risk intensive insulin therapy. This dosage-aid system uses an optimization algorithm to determine the insulin dose and injection-to-meal time that minimizes the risk of postprandial hyper- and hypoglycaemia in type 1 diabetic patients. To this end, the algorithm applies a methodology that quantifies the risk of experiencing different grades of hypo- or hyperglycaemia in the postprandial state induced by insulin therapy according to an individual patient’s parameters. This methodology is based on modal interval analysis (MIA). Applying MIA, the postprandial glucose level is predicted with consideration of intra-patient variability and other sources of uncertainty. A worst-case approach is then used to calculate the risk index. In this way, a safer prediction of possible hyper- and hypoglycaemic episodes induced by the insulin therapy tested can be calculated in terms of these uncertainties.

Optimization of inverse reflector design

Aquesta tesi presenta un nou mètode pel disseny invers de reflectors. Ens hem centrat en tres temes principals: l’ús de fonts de llum reals i complexes, la definició d’un algoritme ràpid pel càlcul de la il•luminació del reflector, i la definició d’un algoritme d’optimització per trobar més eficientment el reflector desitjat. Les fonts de llum estan representades per models near-field, que es comprimeixen amb un error molt petit, fins i tot per fonts de llum amb milions de raigs i objectes a il•luminar molt propers. Llavors proposem un mètode ràpid per obtenir la distribució de la il•luminació d’un reflector i la seva comparació amb la il•luminació desitjada, i que treballa completament en la GPU. Finalment, proposem un nou mètode d’optimització global que permet trobar la solució en menys passos que molts altres mètodes d’optimització clàssics, i alhora evitant mínims locals.

El turismo en los espacios naturales protegidos. Análisis de los objetos de consumo turístico y del comportamiento de los turistas en los parques naturales de Liguria

The objectives of the thesis are identify in the current tourism landscape, tourist typologies which are capable of ensuring an adequate level of sustainability, ie that take into account the need to establish effective partnerships between major players in the touristic sector: 1. Looking for practical examples of more responsible tourism forms with resources. 2. Stressing the role played by ecotourism, this form of tourism according to the qual makes your holiday visitors relate more directly conscious of environmental and sociocultural present in the venue. 3. identifying actions to ensure the protection of the environment and the economic take off by traditionally depressed areas. 4. identifying objects aimed at boosting tourism consumption of a natural protected area interpreted as ideal as post-Fordist real space and identify profiles of tourists in protected areas. Also if tourism products linked to nature, culture and cuisine can help to revitalize the Ligurian coastal tourism 5. Checking if the regional system of protected areas has produced results in both environmental protection and endogenous development through tourism. 6. Quantifying the actual supply of the areas studied. 7. Checking if the three parks studied were identified and developed specific objects of tourist consumption.

Multi-objective optimization scheme for static and dynamic multicast flows

Muchas de las nuevas aplicaciones emergentes de Internet tales como TV sobre Internet, Radio sobre Internet,Video Streamming multi-punto, entre otras, necesitan los siguientes requerimientos de recursos: ancho de banda consumido, retardo extremo-a-extremo, tasa de paquetes perdidos, etc. Por lo anterior, es necesario formular una propuesta que especifique y provea para este tipo de aplicaciones los recursos necesarios para su buen funcionamiento. En esta tesis, proponemos un esquema de ingeniería de tráfico multi-objetivo a través del uso de diferentes árboles de distribución para muchos flujos multicast. En este caso, estamos usando la aproximación de múltiples caminos para cada nodo egreso y de esta forma obtener la aproximación de múltiples árboles y a través de esta forma crear diferentes árboles multicast. Sin embargo, nuestra propuesta resuelve la fracción de la división del tráfico a través de múltiples árboles. La propuesta puede ser aplicada en redes MPLS estableciendo rutas explícitas en eventos multicast. En primera instancia, el objetivo es combinar los siguientes objetivos ponderados dentro de una métrica agregada: máxima utilización de los enlaces, cantidad de saltos, el ancho de banda total consumido y el retardo total extremo-a-extremo. Nosotros hemos formulado esta función multi-objetivo (modelo MHDB-S) y los resultados obtenidos muestran que varios objetivos ponderados son reducidos y la máxima utilización de los enlaces es minimizada. El problema es NP-duro, por lo tanto, un algoritmo es propuesto para optimizar los diferentes objetivos. El comportamiento que obtuvimos usando este algoritmo es similar al que obtuvimos con el modelo. Normalmente, durante la transmisión multicast los nodos egresos pueden salir o entrar del árbol y por esta razón en esta tesis proponemos un esquema de ingeniería de tráfico multi-objetivo usando diferentes árboles para grupos multicast dinámicos. (en el cual los nodos egresos pueden cambiar durante el tiempo de vida de la conexión). Si un árbol multicast es recomputado desde el principio, esto podría consumir un tiempo considerable de CPU y además todas las comuicaciones que están usando el árbol multicast serán temporalmente interrumpida. Para aliviar estos inconvenientes, proponemos un modelo de optimización (modelo dinámico MHDB-D) que utilice los árboles multicast previamente computados (modelo estático MHDB-S) adicionando nuevos nodos egreso. Usando el método de la suma ponderada para resolver el modelo analítico, no necesariamente es correcto, porque es posible tener un espacio de solución no convexo y por esta razón algunas soluciones pueden no ser encontradas. Adicionalmente, otros tipos de objetivos fueron encontrados en diferentes trabajos de investigación. Por las razones mencionadas anteriormente, un nuevo modelo llamado GMM es propuesto y para dar solución a este problema un nuevo algoritmo usando Algoritmos Evolutivos Multi-Objetivos es propuesto. Este algoritmo esta inspirado por el algoritmo Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm (SPEA). Para dar una solución al caso dinámico con este modelo generalizado, nosotros hemos propuesto un nuevo modelo dinámico y una solución computacional usando Breadth First Search (BFS) probabilístico. Finalmente, para evaluar nuestro esquema de optimización propuesto, ejecutamos diferentes pruebas y simulaciones. Las principales contribuciones de esta tesis son la taxonomía, los modelos de optimización multi-objetivo para los casos estático y dinámico en transmisiones multicast (MHDB-S y MHDB-D), los algoritmos para dar solución computacional a los modelos. Finalmente, los modelos generalizados también para los casos estático y dinámico (GMM y GMM Dinámico) y las propuestas computacionales para dar slución usando MOEA y BFS probabilístico.

Correntes permanentes em anéis mesoscópicos

Correntes permanentes em anéis mesoscópicos imersos num campo magnético constante foram pela primeira vez observadas experimentalmente em 1990, apresentando intensidades entre uma a duas ordens de grandeza superiores aos valores previstos teoricamente, uma discrepância que permanece por resolver. Neste trabalho apresenta-se um estudo em que se considera um modelo com uma impureza e interações repulsivas entre os eletrões do anel. Através da transformação de Jordan-Wigner obtém-se o hamiltoneano XXZ para cadeias de spin 1/2, com um defeito de troca e condições de fronteira “torcidas”. Utilizando o algoritmo do Grupo de Renormalização da Matriz Densidade (DMRG) estudamos os coeficientes de Fourier da corrente permanente e do respetivo peso de Drude em função da intensidade das interações e do tamanho do anel. Observamos que a amplitude da corrente permanente e o valor do peso de Drude são sempre diminuídos pelas interações.

Algunas demostraciones de incomputabilidad usando la técnica de diagonalización

Los supuestos fundamentales de la Teoría de la Computabilidad se establecieron antes de la aparición de los primeros ordenadores (a finales de los años 40), supuestos que muchos años de vertiginoso cambio no han conseguido alterar. Alan Mathison Turing demostró ya entonces que ningún ordenador, por muy potente que lo imaginemos, podría resolver algunas cuestiones. Estos problemas para los que no existe ningún algoritmo posible, los incomputables, no son excepcionales y hay un gran número de ellos entre los problemas que se plantean en torno al comportamiento de los programas. El problema de parada, es sin duda el miembro más conocido de esta familia: no existe un algoritmo para decidir con carácter general si un programa ciclará o no al recibir unos datos de entrada concretos. Para demostrar la incomputabilidad de un problema necesitamos un argumento lógico que certifique la inexistencia de algoritmo, o lo que es lo mismo, que pruebe que ninguno de los algoritmos existentes es capaz de resolver dicho problema. Tal argumento de carácter universal no suele ser sencillo de establecer, y normalmente suele estar relacionado con una demostración por reducción al absurdo. Existen distintas técnicas para lograr este objetivo. La técnica de diagonalización es la más básica de ellas, y resulta bastante conocida al no tratarse de una herramienta específica de la Informática Teórica. En este documento no se trata de explicar la técnica en sí, que se supone conocida, sino de ilustrarla con una colección de ejemplos de diferente grado de dificultad.

Konputaezintasun frogapen batzuk diagonalizazio teknika erabiliz

Konputagarritasunaren Teoriaren oinarriak lehenengo ordenadoreak azaldu aurretik (40. hamarkadaren bukaera aldera) ezarri ziren, eta ziztu biziko eta etenik gabeko eraldaketek aldatzea lortu ez duten oinarriak dira. Alan Mathison Turing-ek jadanik garai hartan frogatu zuen, ahalik eta potentzia handienekoa imajinatuta ere, inolako ordenadorek ebatzi ezingo zituen zenbait gai edo arazo bazeudela. Balizko algoritmorik ez duten problema horiek, konputaezinak deitzen ditugunak, ez dira salbuespenak eta adibide ugari aurki dezakegu. Programen portaeraren inguruan planteatzen diren problemen artean, asko konputaezinak dira. Familia horretako kide ezagunena, zalantzarik gabe, geratze problema da: sarrerako datu zehatz batzuk hartzerakoan, programa bat begizta infinituan geratuko ote den era orokorrean erabakitzeko algoritmorik ez dago. Problema baten konputaezintasuna frogatzeko, hau ebatziko duen algoritmo zehatz bat existitzen ez dela ziurtatuko duen argumentu logikoa behar dugu, edo beste era batera esanda, existitzen diren algoritmoak problema hori ebazteko gai izango ez direla egiaztatuko duen argumentua. Izaera unibertsaleko argumentu hori ezartzea ez da batere erraza izaten, eta normalean, absurduraino eramandako frogapen batekin erlazionatuta egon ohi da. Helburu hori lortzeko zenbait teknika daude. Diagonalizazioaren teknika horien artean oinarrizkoena da, eta nahiko ezaguna, ez baita Informatika Teorikoaren tresna espezifikoa. Dokumentu honen helburua ez da teknika bera azaldu edo deskribatzea, ezaguntzat hartzen baita, zailtasun maila desberdineko hainbat adibideren bitartez argitzea baizik.

Identification of nonlinear systems using generalized kernel models

Nonlinear system identification is considered using a generalized kernel regression model. Unlike the standard kernel model, which employs a fixed common variance for all the kernel regressors, each kernel regressor in the generalized kernel model has an individually tuned diagonal covariance matrix that is determined by maximizing the correlation between the training data and the regressor using a repeated guided random search based on boosting optimization. An efficient construction algorithm based on orthogonal forward regression with leave-one-out (LOO) test statistic and local regularization (LR) is then used to select a parsimonious generalized kernel regression model from the resulting full regression matrix. The proposed modeling algorithm is fully automatic and the user is not required to specify any criterion to terminate the construction procedure. Experimental results involving two real data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed nonlinear system identification approach.

Humoral immunity following chickenpox is influenced by geography and ethnicity

Objectives To investigate the contribution of ethnicity and geographical location to varicella-zoster virus (VZV) serostatus and antibody concentrations. Methods The presence and concentrations of antibodies to VZV were measured in 639 Bangladeshi women born in Bangladesh (BBB), 94 Bangladeshi women born in the UK (BUK) and 262 White women born in the UK (WUK). The results were anaylsed in relation to demographic and social data. Results BBB women were significantly less likely to be VZV seropositive at all ages than both BUK and WUK women. However, the odds of a Bangladeshi-born woman being seropositive increased by 1.04 for each year under the age of 15 spent in the UK. In contrast, antibody concentrations were significantly lower in ethnic Bangladeshi women, irrespective of country of birth. White, but not Bangladeshi women, showed evidence of antibody boosting over time despite the latter having more exposure to children. Conclusion Geographical location during childhood is the major influence on age of primary infection with VZV while the level of antibody is related to ethnicity. Since the risk of re-infection with VZV following both natural infection and vaccination is increased as antibody concentrations fall, these results have implications for VZV vaccination programmes particularly in non-White populations.

Researcher development: the impact of undergraduate research opportunity programmes on students in the UK

Undergraduate research opportunity programmes (UROP) are common in North America where research has confirmed their benefits. These schemes are gaining ground in the UK, and this article provides evidence for how UK students are benefiting from the experience. Results suggest UROP makes a significant contribution to the research capabilities and confidence of participating students, boosting their understanding of both research and their own subjects. Whilst offering considerable benefits to student learning, there is no evidence that UROP schemes on their current small scale attract additional students to postgraduate research, since the majority that participate are already interested in postgraduate study. However, at an individual level, most students report increased confidence and appreciation of the realities of the research process, and desire to progress on to postgraduate study following the placement, indicating that schemes may have the potential to cultivate new research confidence and interest if expanded.

Farm productivity and efficiency in rural Bangladesh: the role of education revisited

This article reassesses the debate over the role of education in farm production in Bangladesh using a large dataset on rice producing households from 141 villages. Average and stochastic production frontier functions are estimated to ascertain the effect of education on productivity and efficiency. A full set of proxies for farm education stock variables are incorporated to investigate the ‘internal’ as well as ‘external’ returns to education. The external effect is investigated in the context of rural neighbourhoods. Our analysis reveals that in addition to raising rice productivity and boosting potential output, household education significantly reduces production inefficiencies. However, we are unable to find any evidence of the externality benefit of schooling – neighbour's education does not matter in farm production. We discuss the implication of these findings for rural education programmes in Bangladesh.

The identity of crop pollinators helps target conservation for improved ecosystem services

Insect pollinated mass flowering crops are becoming more widespread and there is a need to understand which insects are primarily responsible for the pollination of these crops so conservation measures can be appropriately targeted in the face of pollinator declines. This study used field surveys in conjunction with cage manipulations to identify the relative contributions of different pollinator taxa to the pollination of two widespread flowering crops, field beans and oilseed rape. Flower visiting pollinator communities observed in the field were distinct for each crop; while field beans were visited primarily by a few bumblebee species, multiple pollinator taxa visited oilseed, and the composition of this pollinator community was highly variable spatially and temporally. Neither pollinator community, however, appears to be meeting the demands of crops in our study regions. Cage manipulations showed that multiple taxa can effectively pollinate both oilseed and field beans, but bumblebees are particularly effective bean pollinators. Combining field observations and cage manipulations demonstrated that the pollination demands of these two mass flowering crops are highly contrasting, one would benefit from management to increase the abundance of some key taxa, whilst for the other, boosting overall pollinator abundance and diversity would be more appropriate. Our findings highlight the need for crop specific mitigation strategies that are targeted at conserving specific pollinator taxa (or group of taxa) that are both active and capable of crop pollination in order to reduce pollination deficits and meet the demands of future crop production.

Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: increased risks of pollination deficits

Understanding how climate change can affect crop-pollinator systems helps predict potential geographical mismatches between a crop and its pollinators, and therefore identify areas vulnerable to loss of pollination services. We examined the distribution of orchard species (apples, pears, plums and other top fruits) and their pollinators in Great Britain, for present and future climatic conditions projected for 2050 under the SRES A1B Emissions Scenario. We used a relative index of pollinator availability as a proxy for pollination service. At present there is a large spatial overlap between orchards and their pollinators, but predictions for 2050 revealed that the most suitable areas for orchards corresponded to low pollinator availability. However, we found that pollinator availability may persist in areas currently used for fruit production, but which are predicted to provide sub-optimal environmental suitability for orchard species in the future. Our results may be used to identify mitigation options to safeguard orchard production against the risk of pollination failure in Great Britain over the next 50 years; for instance choosing fruit tree varieties that are adapted to future climatic conditions, or boosting wild pollinators through improving landscape resources. Our approach can be readily applied to other regions and crop systems, and expanded to include different climatic scenarios.

Global networks, cities and economic performance: Observations from an analysis of cities in Europe and the USA

The network paradigm has been highly influential in spatial analysis in the globalisation era. As economies across the world have become increasingly integrated, so-called global cities have come to play a growing role as central nodes in the networked global economy. The idea that a city’s position in global networks benefits its economic performance has resulted in a competitive policy focus on promoting the economic growth of cities by improving their network connectivity. However, in spite of the attention being given to boosting city connectivity little is known about whether this directly translates to improved city economic performance and, if so, how well connected a city needs to be in order to benefit from this. In this paper we test the relationship between network connectivity and economic performance between 2000 and 2008 for cities with over 500,000 inhabitants in Europe and the USA to inform European policy.

ENSO and greenhouse warming

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant climate phenomenon affecting extreme weather conditions worldwide. Its response to greenhouse warming has challenged scientists for decades, despite model agreement on projected changes in mean state. Recent studies have provided new insights into the elusive links between changes in ENSO and in the mean state of the Pacific climate. The projected slow-down in Walker circulation is expected to weaken equatorial Pacific Ocean currents, boosting the occurrences of eastward-propagating warm surface anomalies that characterize observed extreme El Niño events. Accelerated equatorial Pacific warming, particularly in the east, is expected to induce extreme rainfall in the eastern equatorial Pacific and extreme equatorward swings of the Pacific convergence zones, both of which are features of extreme El Niño. The frequency of extreme La Niña is also expected to increase in response to more extreme El Niños, an accelerated maritime continent warming and surface-intensified ocean warming. ENSO-related catastrophic weather events are thus likely to occur more frequently with unabated greenhouse-gas emissions. But model biases and recent observed strengthening of the Walker circulation highlight the need for further testing as new models, observations and insights become available.