Stops and bonanzas in the EU: Does being part of the Euro Area make a difference?

In this paper, we investigate whether being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza of capital flows. Our sample period is from 1995 until 2014. We identify these two phenomena and we evaluate which push and pull factors help predict the conditional probability of experiencing one of them. We find that most countries had significant capital inflows until 2008 and that there were more sudden stops during the recent financial crisis than in any other moment in our sample. The factors that better help forecast the conditional probability of a sudden stop are global uncertainty (represented by the push factor “Volatility Index”), and the domestic economic activity (pull factors “GDP growth” and “consumer confidence”). An indicator of country risk (pull factor “change in credit rating”) is the most significant one for predicting bonanzas. Ultimately, we find no evidence that being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza.

Trading the differences in expectations between the CDS and bond markets

This paper uses the framework developed by Vrugt (2010) to extract the recovery rate and term-structure of risk-neutral default probabilities implied in the cross-section of Portuguese sovereign bonds outstanding between March and August 2011. During this period the expectations on the recovery rate remain firmly anchored around 50 percent while the instantaneous default probability increases steadily from 6 to above 30 percent. These parameters are then used to calculate the fair-value of a 5-year and 10- year CDS contract. A credit-risk-neutral strategy is developed from the difference between the market price of a CDS of the same tenors and the fair-value calculated, yielding a sharpe ratio of 3.2

The firm delocalization decision

In the current paper, the determinants of firm international relocation decision in twenty-six European countries during the period 2004-2014 are analyzed. We demonstrate, at light of three different but complementary theories that neoclassical, behavioural and institutional „push‟ factors have an impact in a firm decision-making process. Findings support that firm size, access to a global network, foreign capital, and negative internal growth in the workforce induce firm relocation. On the other hand, the degree of sunk assets has a negative effect on the probability of relocation. Delocalization decisions are also sector-dependent with low-tech manufacturing firms paying high salaries relocating abroad with a greater likelihood.

Platelet profile is associated with clinical complications in patients with vivax and falciparum malaria in Colombia

Introduction Thrombocytopenia is a common complication in malaria patients. The relationship between abnormal platelet profile and clinical status in malaria patients is unclear. In low and unstable endemic regions where vivax malaria predominates, the hematologic profiles of malaria patients and their clinical utility are poorly understood. The aim of this study was to characterize the thrombograms of malaria patients from Colombia, where Plasmodium vivax infection is common, and to explore the relationship between thrombograms and clinical status. Methods Eight hundred sixty-two malaria patients were enrolled, including 533 (61.8%) patients infected with Plasmodium falciparum, 311 (36.1%) patients infected with Plasmodium vivax and 18 (2.1%) patients with mixed infections. Results The most frequently observed changes were low platelet count (PC) and high platelet distribution width (PDW), which were observed in 65% of patients; thrombocytopenia with <50,000 platelets/µL was identified in 11% of patients. Patients with complications had lower PC and plateletcrit (PT) and higher PDW values. A higher risk of thrombocytopenia was identified in patients with severe anemia, neurologic complications, pulmonary complications, liver dysfunction, renal impairment and severe hypoglycemia. The presence of thrombocytopenia (<150,000 platelets/µL) was associated with a higher probability of liver dysfunction. Conclusions Young age, longer duration of illness and higher parasitemia are associated with severe thrombocytopenia. Our study showed that thrombocytopenia is related to malaria complications, especially liver dysfunction. High PDW in patients with severe malaria may explain the mechanisms of thrombocytopenia that is common in this group of patients.

Essays in entrepreneurship among foreign individuals

We study how countries of origin affect foreign individuals’ choice between salaried work and entrepreneurship upon arrival to the host country. Using a change in the Portuguese immigration law we evaluate the impact of reducing regulations on entrepreneurship upon the probability of foreign individuals choose entrepreneurship upon arrival. We find that foreigners from countries more dissimilar to the host country and those from wealthier countries are more likely engage in entrepreneurship upon arrival than those from similar countries. Foreigners from countries outside the European Economic Area, who have to fulfil requirements that are not required to those from countries within this area, are less likely to enter the labor market as entrepreneurs than those from countries within this area. According to our findings reducing legal requirements to foreign entrepreneurship may encourage foreigners to engage in entrepreneurship upon arrival, although such impact is not considerable.

Potential for entomopathogenic fungi to control Triatoma dimidiata (Hemiptera: Reduviidae), a vector of Chagas disease in Mexico

Introduction The use of entomopathogenic fungi to control disease vectors has become relevant because traditional chemical control methods have caused damage to the environment and led to the development of resistance among vectors. Thus, this study assessed the pathogenicity of entomopathogenic fungi in Triatoma dimidiata. Methods Preparations of 108 conidia/ml of Gliocladium virens, Talaromyces flavus, Beauveria bassiana and Metarhizium anisopliae were applied topically on T. dimidiata nymphs and adults. Controls were treated with the 0.0001% Tween-80 vehicle. Mortality was evaluated and recorded daily for 30 days. The concentration required to kill 50% of T. dimidiata (LC50) was then calculated for the most pathogenic isolate. Results Pathogenicity in adults was similar among B. bassiana, G. virens and T. flavus (p>0.05) and differed from that in triatomine nymphs (p=0.009). The most entomopathogenic strains in adult triatomines were B. bassiana and G. virens, which both caused 100% mortality. In nymphs, the most entomopathogenic strain was B. bassiana, followed by G. virens. The native strain with the highest pathogenicity was G. virens, for which the LC50 for T. dimidiata nymphs was 1.98 x108 conidia/ml at 13 days after inoculation. Conclusions Beauveria bassiana and G. virens showed entomopathogenic potential in T. dimidiata nymphs and adults. However, the native G. virens strain presents a higher probability of success in the field, and G. virens should thus be considered a potential candidate for the biological control of triatomine Chagas disease vectors.

The use of technology in Portuguese hospitals- The case of MRI

We study the determinants of MRI use across Portuguese NHS hospitals for patients belonging to specific DRGs. Using data on individual hospital admissions, we estimate a probit model including individual-, hospital-, time- and region-specific variables in order to explain the probability of a patient being sent for MRI. Results convey a tightening effect on the hospital’s budget constraint in the end of each year. Hospitals seem to account for regional characteristics when defining adoption patterns. Individual-specific variables are good predictors of MRI use. Measures taken by the Government only impact the short run. Finally, the gains from an MRI scan, as far as the probability of death is concerned, occur mainly for less severe patients.

Do hospitals react to random demand pressure by early discharges?

This project tries to assess whether hospitals react to random demand pressure by discharging patients earlier than expected. As a matter of fact, combining an unpredictable demand for medical services with limited and, to some extent, fixed medical resources, generates strong incentives to discharge patients earlier than expected when demand is high − increasing the risk of readmission and decreasing the benefit from treatment. This work was conducted as a way to determine whether those incentives actually affect discharging decisions. Analysis of Portuguese hospitals data shows that hospital utilization levels at the time of admission, prior to the admission and post admission do have a negative impact over the length of stay in hospital, although this impact is quantitatively irrelevant. More than that, larger utilization levels have a positive impact over the probability of being discharged at certain days of the week, indicating that an early discharges problem may exist.

Cultura de segurança em proteção civil

This work aims to stress the concept of a security culture in the sense that each one of us is an emergency responder, the first one to respond, and the more prepared we are, with better training and awareness, the better we will perform, this applies even to the relationship between us and the Emergency Responders. All this will lead to a better probability of surviving an accident. If there is an accident, anywhere at any time, each one of us is alone. And the bigger the accident is the longer we stay alone. There is no firefighter, no policeman, no doctor, so it is very important to be competent, in other words, knowing how to react, wanting to react and being able to react. This is a basic requirement to understand the phenomenon, to know the consequences arising from the way we act and that we have to perform according to the situation: before, during and after it occurred. In brief, let’s not make resilience be just a word, let’s make it a concept that belongs to the higher definition of the Security Culture.

Prediction of hyperglycemia in preterm newborn infants

Many conditions are associated with hyperglycemia in preterm neonates because they are very susceptible to changes in carbohydrate homeostasis. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the occurrence of hyperglycemia in preterm infants undergoing glucose infusion during the first week of life, and to enumerate the main variables predictive of hyperglycemia. This prospective study (during 1994) included 40 preterm neonates (gestational age <37 weeks); 511 determinations of glycemic status were made in these infants (average 12.8/infant), classified by gestational age, birth weight, glucose infusion rate and clinical status at the time of determination (based on clinical and laboratory parameters). The clinical status was classified as stable or unstable, as an indication of the stability or instability of the mechanisms governing glucose homeostasis at the time of determination of blood glucose; 59 episodes of hyperglycemia (11.5%) were identified. A case-control study was used (case = hyperglycemia; control = normoglycemia) to derive a model for predicting glycemia. The risk factors considered were gestational age (<=31 vs. >31 weeks), birth weight (<=1500 vs. >1500 g), glucose infusion rate (<=6 vs. >6 mg/kg/min) and clinical status (stable vs. unstable). Multivariate analysis by logistic regression gave the following mathematical model for predicting the probability of hyperglycemia: 1/exp{-3.1437 + 0.5819(GA) + 0.9234(GIR) + 1.0978(Clinical status)} The main predictive variables in our study, in increasing order of importance, were gestational age, glucose infusion rate and, the clinical status (stable or unstable) of the preterm newborn infant. The probability of hyperglycemia ranged from 4.1% to 36.9%.

Dose de radiação e risco para a saúde em doentes com Linfoma não-Hodgkin submetidos a estudos de TC

RESUMO - A exposição a radiações ionizantes em tomografia computorizada (TC) pode constituir-se como um risco para a saúde dos utentes. A TC é utilizada no diagnóstico e follow-up de doentes com Linfoma não-Hodgkin, subtipo Linfoma Difuso das Grandes Células B (LDGCB). O objetivo deste estudo foi determinar a dose efetiva acumulada e o risco de segundas neoplasias nestes doentes, diagnosticados em 2011 no IPOLFG e seguidos na consulta de hematologia até 2013. Foram avaliados retrospetivamente 70 doentes com base nos registos de dose do “Patient Protocol” das TC efetuadas. Em média cada doente fez 12 TC e a dose efetiva acumulada foi de 64,76 mSv (percentil 75). Três doentes foram expostos a doses de radiação superiores 90 mSv e um atingiu 111,72 mSv. Os resultados demonstram ser necessário rever os parâmetros e protocolos de exames de TC: (i) TC crânio (DLP= 777 mGycm) e TC abdominal-pélvico (DLP= 628 mGycm). O aumento do número de exames de TC efetuados e a consequente dose parece corresponder a um aumento do risco de segundas neoplasias e risco de morte por doenças neoplásicas durante a vida destes doentes. Os resultados são aparentemente mais significativos para as mulheres, que apresentam o dobro do risco de cancro do pulmão e risco de mortalidade superior em 14% para todas as doenças neoplásicas. O elevado número de exames de TC realizados por cada doente contribui para o aumento da probabilidade de efeitos deletérios e também para o aumento dos níveis de dose efetiva coletiva na população em geral.

Implementação da Equipa de Emergência Médica Intra-hospitalar nos hospitais do Serviço Nacional de Saúde : análise de custo-efetividade perante a incidência da paragem cárdio-respiratória intra-hospitalar

RESUMO - Introdução: No âmbito das emergências intra-hospitalares investigou-se a hipótese da presença da Equipa Emergência Médica Intra-hospitalar (EEMI) (DGS, 2010) num Centro Hospitalar (CH), contribuir para a redução do número de mortos por Paragem Cárdiorespiratória (PCR) intra-hospitalar, quando comparado com outro CH dotado de uma equipa tradicional de resposta à PCR. Metodologia: Tratou-se de um estudo observacional, retrospetivo (2010 a 2014), com base nos dados do Grupo de Diagnóstico Homogéneo (GDH), analisado numa perspetiva de custo-efetividade no impacto sobre incidência de PCR e taxa de mortalidade. Resultados: Observou-se que o CH com EEMI apresentou uma Redução Risco Absoluto (RRA) de 9,01% de morte por PCR. A taxa de mortalidade calculada foi de 2,82 casos por 1000 episódios de internamento em que a incidência de PCR foi de 28,24 casos por cada 10 000 habitantes, duas vezes menor que CH em comparação. Quando introduzidas manobras de Ressuscitação Cárdiopulmonar (RCP), o mesmo CH teve um maior número de PCR revertidas, com uma taxa de mortalidade 2 vezes menor que o CH sem EEMI. Conclusão: Resultados demonstraram que os dois CH apresentaram riscos diferentes, em que a probabilidade do doente hospitalizado de morrer após ocorrência de PCR foi menor no grupo exposto à EEMI, com OR = 0,496 [IC 95% (0,372 a 0,662)] para dados populacionais (p = 0,0013), e OR = 0,618 [IC 95% (0,298 a 1,281)] para dados individuais, (p = 0,194). Face a melhores resultados em Saúde, considerou-se a implementação da EEMI, uma medida custo-efetiva, uma vez que o principal requisito traduz-se por reorganização das equipas tradicionais para uma vertente de prevenção da PCR.

Medium access control design for distributed opportunistic radio networks

Existing wireless networks are characterized by a fixed spectrum assignment policy. However, the scarcity of available spectrum and its inefficient usage demands for a new communication paradigm to exploit the existing spectrum opportunistically. Future Cognitive Radio (CR) devices should be able to sense unoccupied spectrum and will allow the deployment of real opportunistic networks. Still, traditional Physical (PHY) and Medium Access Control (MAC) protocols are not suitable for this new type of networks because they are optimized to operate over fixed assigned frequency bands. Therefore, novel PHY-MAC cross-layer protocols should be developed to cope with the specific features of opportunistic networks. This thesis is mainly focused on the design and evaluation of MAC protocols for Decentralized Cognitive Radio Networks (DCRNs). It starts with a characterization of the spectrum sensing framework based on the Energy-Based Sensing (EBS) technique considering multiple scenarios. Then, guided by the sensing results obtained by the aforementioned technique, we present two novel decentralized CR MAC schemes: the first one designed to operate in single-channel scenarios and the second one to be used in multichannel scenarios. Analytical models for the network goodput, packet service time and individual transmission probability are derived and used to compute the performance of both protocols. Simulation results assess the accuracy of the analytical models as well as the benefits of the proposed CR MAC schemes.

Assessing the role of social networks on migrant labor market outcomes: Evidence from a representative immigrant survey

What role do social networks play in determining migrant labor market outcomes? We examine this question using data from a random sample of 1500 immigrants living in Ireland. We propose a theoretical model formally predicting that immigrants with more contacts have additional access to job offers, and are therefore better able to become employed and choose higher paid jobs. Our empirical analysis confirms these findings, while focusing more generally on the relationship between migrants’ social networks and a variety of labor market outcomes (namely wages, employment, occupational choice and job security), contrary to the literature. We find evidence that having one more contact in the network is associated with an increase of 11pp in the probability of being employed and with an increase of about 100 euros in the average salary. However, our data is not suggestive of a network size effect on occupational choice and job security. Our findings are robust to sample selection and other endogeneity concerns.

Introducing risk parity on momentum and carry portfolios

The momentum and carry anomalies have been extensively documented in the literature. However, there are still many issues relating to the risks associated to them that are left unexplained. One is the fact that an investor holds for too long the most volatile assets, both under momentum and carry strategies. Therefore, they present a level of risk and a probability of extreme events to happen inconsistent. This work project hypothesizes and proves the introduction of risk parity rules on the weights of the portfolios do increase risk rewarding of carry strategies. However, it fails under momentum strategies.