Modelling phosphorus dynamics in multi-branch river systems: A study of the Black River, Lake Simcoe, Ontario, Canada

High rates of nutrient loading from agricultural and urban development have resulted in surface water eutrophication and groundwater contamination in regions of Ontario. In Lake Simcoe (Ontario, Canada), anthropogenic nutrient contributions have contributed to increased algal growth, low hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations, and impaired fish reproduction. An ambitious programme has been initiated to reduce phosphorus loads to the lake, aiming to achieve at least a 40% reduction in phosphorus loads by 2045. Achievement of this target necessitates effective remediation strategies, which will rely upon an improved understanding of controls on nutrient export from tributaries of Lake Simcoe as well as improved understanding of the importance of phosphorus cycling within the lake. In this paper, we describe a new model structure for the integrated dynamic and process-based model INCA-P, which allows fully-distributed applications, suited to branched river networks. We demonstrate application of this model to the Black River, a tributary of Lake Simcoe, and use INCA-P to simulate the fluxes of P entering the lake system, apportion phosphorus among different sources in the catchment, and explore future scenarios of land-use change and nutrient management to identify high priority sites for implementation of watershed best management practises.

Sediment fingerprinting as an environmental forensics tool explaining cyanobacteria blooms in lakes

Cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) blooms in water bodies present serious public health issues with attendant economic and ecological impacts. Llyn Tegid (Lake Bala) is an important conservation and amenity asset within Snowdonia National Park, Wales which since the mid-1990s has experienced multiple toxic cyanobacteria blooms threatening the ecology and tourism-dependent local economy. Multiple working hypotheses explain the emergence of this problem, including climate change, land management linked to increased nutrient flux, hydromorphological alterations or changing trophic structure - any of which may operate individually or cumulatively to impair lake function. This paper reports the findings of a sedimentfingerprinting study using dated lake cores to explore the linkages between catchment and lake management practices and the emergence of the algal blooms problem. Since 1900 AD lake bed sedimentation rates have varied from 0.06 to 1.07 g cm−2 yr−1, with a pronounced acceleration since the early 1980s. Geochemical analysis revealed increases in the concentrations of total phosphorus (TP), calcium and heavy metals such as zinc and lead consistent with eutrophication and a rising pollution burden, particularly since the late 1970s. An uncertainty-inclusive sedimentfingerprinting approach was used to apportion the relative fluxes from the major catchment land cover types of improved pasture, rough grazing, forestry and channel banks. This showed improved pasture and channel banks are the dominant diffuse sources of sediment in the catchment, though forestry sources were important historically. Conversion of rough grazing to improved grassland, coupled with intensified land management and year-round livestock grazing, is concluded to provide the principal source of rising TP levels. Lake Habitat Survey and particle size analysis of lake cores demonstrate the hydromorphological impact of the River Dee Regulation Scheme, which controls water level and periodically diverts flow into Llyn Tegid from the adjacent Afon Tryweryn catchment. This hydromorphological impact has also been most pronounced since the late 1970s. It is concluded that an integrated approach combining land management to reduce agricultural runoff allied to improved water level regulation enabling recovery of littoral macrophytes offers the greatest chance halting the on-going cyanobacteria issue in Llyn Tegid.

Nitrogen flows from European watersheds to coastal marine waters

Nitrogen flows from European watersheds to coastal marine waters Executive summary Nature of the problem • Most regional watersheds in Europe constitute managed human territories importing large amounts of new reactive nitrogen. • As a consequence, groundwater, surface freshwater and coastal seawater are undergoing severe nitrogen contamination and/or eutrophication problems. Approaches • A comprehensive evaluation of net anthropogenic inputs of reactive nitrogen (NANI) through atmospheric deposition, crop N fixation,fertiliser use and import of food and feed has been carried out for all European watersheds. A database on N, P and Si fluxes delivered at the basin outlets has been assembled. • A number of modelling approaches based on either statistical regression analysis or mechanistic description of the processes involved in nitrogen transfer and transformations have been developed for relating N inputs to watersheds to outputs into coastal marine ecosystems. Key findings/state of knowledge • Throughout Europe, NANI represents 3700 kgN/km2/yr (range, 0–8400 depending on the watershed), i.e. five times the background rate of natural N2 fixation. • A mean of approximately 78% of NANI does not reach the basin outlet, but instead is stored (in soils, sediments or ground water) or eliminated to the atmosphere as reactive N forms or as N2. • N delivery to the European marine coastal zone totals 810 kgN/km2/yr (range, 200–4000 depending on the watershed), about four times the natural background. In areas of limited availability of silica, these inputs cause harmful algal blooms. Major uncertainties/challenges • The exact dimension of anthropogenic N inputs to watersheds is still imperfectly known and requires pursuing monitoring programmes and data integration at the international level. • The exact nature of ‘retention’ processes, which potentially represent a major management lever for reducing N contamination of water resources, is still poorly understood. • Coastal marine eutrophication depends to a large degree on local morphological and hydrographic conditions as well as on estuarine processes, which are also imperfectly known. Recommendations • Better control and management of the nitrogen cascade at the watershed scale is required to reduce N contamination of ground- and surface water, as well as coastal eutrophication. • In spite of the potential of these management measures, there is no choice at the European scale but to reduce the primary inputs of reactive nitrogen to watersheds, through changes in agriculture, human diet and other N flows related to human activity.

The determination of total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations in freshwaters from land use, stock headage and population data: testing of a model for use in conservation and water quality management

1. Nutrient concentrations (particularly N and P) determine the extent to which water bodies are or may become eutrophic. Direct determination of nutrient content on a wide scale is labour intensive but the main sources of N and P are well known. This paper describes and tests an export coefficient model for prediction of total N and total P from: (i) land use, stock headage and human population; (ii) the export rates of N and P from these sources; and (iii) the river discharge. Such a model might be used to forecast the effects of changes in land use in the future and to hindcast past water quality to establish comparative or baseline states for the monitoring of change. 2. The model has been calibrated against observed data for 1988 and validated against sets of observed data for a sequence of earlier years in ten British catchments varying from uplands through rolling, fertile lowlands to the flat topography of East Anglia. 3. The model predicted total N and total P concentrations with high precision (95% of the variance in observed data explained). It has been used in two forms: the first on a specific catchment basis; the second for a larger natural region which contains the catchment with the assumption that all catchments within that region will be similar. Both models gave similar results with little loss of precision in the latter case. This implies that it will be possible to describe the overall pattern of nutrient export in the UK with only a fraction of the effort needed to carry out the calculations for each individual water body. 4. Comparison between land use, stock headage, population numbers and nutrient export for the ten catchments in the pre-war year of 1931, and for 1970 and 1988 show that there has been a substantial loss of rough grazing to fertilized temporary and permanent grasslands, an increase in the hectarage devoted to arable, consistent increases in the stocking of cattle and sheep and a marked movement of humans to these rural catchments. 5. All of these trends have increased the flows of nutrients with more than a doubling of both total N and total P loads during the period. On average in these rural catchments, stock wastes have been the greatest contributors to both N and P exports, with cultivation the next most important source of N and people of P. Ratios of N to P were high in 1931 and remain little changed so that, in these catchments, phosphorus continues to be the nutrient most likely to control algal crops in standing waters supplied by the rivers studied.

Reconciling observed and modelled phytoplankton dynamics in a major lowland UK river system, the Thames

This study aims to elucidate the key mechanisms controlling phytoplankton growth and decay within the Thames basin through the application of a modified version of an established river-algal model and comparison with observed stream water chlorophyll-a concentrations. The River Thames showed a distinct simulated phytoplankton seasonality and behaviour having high spring, moderate summer and low autumn chlorophyll-a concentrations. Three main sections were identified along the River Thames with different phytoplankton abundance and seasonality: (i) low chlorophyll-a concentrations from source to Newbridge; (ii) steep concentration increase between Newbridge and Sutton; and (iii) high concentrations with a moderate increase in concentration from Sutton to the end of the study area (Maidenhead). However, local hydrologic (e.g. locks) and other conditions (e.g. radiation, water depth, grazer dynamics, etc.) affected the simulated growth and losses. The model achieved good simulation results during both calibration and testing through a range of hydrological and nutrient conditions. Simulated phytoplankton growth was controlled predominantly by residence time, but during medium–low flow periods available light, water temperature and herbivorous grazing defined algal community development. These results challenge the perceived importance of in-stream nutrient concentrations as the perceived primary control on phytoplankton growth and death.

Climate change and the current 'food crisis'

Many reasons are being advanced for the current ‘food crisis’ including financial speculation,increased demand for grains, export bans on selected foodstuffs, inadequate grain stocks, higher oil prices, poor harvests and the use of crop lands for the production of biofuels. This paper reviews the present knowledge of recorded impacts of climate change and variability on crop production, in order to estimate its contribution to the current situation. Many studies demonstrate increased regional temperatures over the last 40 years (often through greater increases in minimum rather than maximum temperatures), but effects on crop yields are mixed. Distinguishing climate effects from changes in yield resulting from improved crop management and genotypes is difficult, but phenological changes affecting sowing, maturity and disease incidence are emerging. Anthropogenic factors appear to be a significant contributory factor to the observed decline in rainfall in southwestern and southeastern Australia, which reduced tradable wheat grain during 2007. Indirect effects of climate change through actions to mitigate or adapt to anticipated changes in climate are also evident. The amount of land diverted from crop production to biofuel production is small but has had a disproportionate effect on tradable grains from the USA. Adaptation of crop production practices and other components of the food system contributing to food security in response to variable and changing climates have occurred, but those households without adequate livelihoods are most in danger of becoming food insecure. Overall, we conclude that changing climate is a small contributor to the current food crisis but cannot be ignored.

The coevolution of two phytoplankton species on a single resource: allelopathy as a pseudo-mixotrophy

Without the top-down effects and the external/physical forcing, a stable coexistence of two phytoplankton species under a single resource is impossible — a result well known from the principle of competitive exclusion. Here I demonstrate by analysis of a mathematical model that such a stable coexistence in a homogeneous media without any external factor would be possible, at least theoretically, provided (i) one of the two species is toxin producing thereby has an allelopathic effect on the other, and (ii) the allelopathic effect exceeds a critical level. The threshold level of allelopathy required for the coexistence has been derived analytically in terms of the parameters associated with the resource competition and the nutrient recycling. That the extra mortality of a competitor driven by allelopathy of a toxic species gives a positive feed back to the algal growth process through the recycling is explained. And that this positive feed back plays a pivotal role in reducing competition pressures and helping species succession in the two-species model is demonstrated. Based on these specific coexistence results, I introduce and explain theoretically the allelopathic effect of a toxic species as a ‘pseudo-mixotrophy’—a mechanism of ‘if you cannot beat them or eat them, just kill them by chemical weapons’. The impact of this mechanism of species succession by pseudo-mixotrophy in the form of alleopathy is discussed in the context of current understanding on straight mixotrophy and resource-species relationship among phytoplankton species.

Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: a scientific assessment

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth’s climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr�-1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27)Wm�-2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m�-2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m�-2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m�-2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (�-0.50 to +1.08) W m-�2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (�-0.06 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of �-1.45 to +1.29 W m�-2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

Cost effectiveness of mitigation measures for water security and water quality in the River Thames catchment: impacts of changing climate, land use and water scarcity

The catchment of the River Thames, the principal river system in southern England, provides the main water supply for London but is highly vulnerable to changes in climate, land use and population. The river is eutrophic with significant algal blooms with phosphorus assumed to be the primary chemical indicator of ecosystem health. In the Thames Basin, phosphorus is available from point sources such as wastewater treatment plants and from diffuse sources such as agriculture. In order to predict vulnerability to future change, the integrated catchments model for phosphorus (INCA-P) has been applied to the river basin and used to assess the cost-effectiveness of a range of mitigation and adaptation strategies. It is shown that scenarios of future climate and land-use change will exacerbate the water quality problems, but a range of mitigation measures can improve the situation. A cost-effectiveness study has been undertaken to compare the economic benefits of each mitigation measure and to assess the phosphorus reductions achieved. The most effective strategy is to reduce fertilizer use by 20% together with the treatment of effluent to a high standard. Such measures will reduce the instream phosphorus concentrations to close to the EU Water Framework Directive target for the Thames.

The impact of climate change on the treatability of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in upland water supplies: A UK perspective

Climate change in the UK is expected to cause increases in temperatures, altered precipitation patterns and more frequent and extreme weather events. In this review we discuss climate effects on dissolved organic matter (DOM), how altered DOM and water physico-chemical properties will affect treatment processes and assess the utility of techniques used to remove DOM and monitor water quality. A critical analysis of the literature has been undertaken with a focus on catchment drivers of DOM character, removal of DOM via coagulation and the formation of disinfectant by-products (DBPs). We suggest that: (1) upland catchments recovering from acidification will continue to produce more DOM with a greater hydrophobic fraction as solubility controls decrease; (2) greater seasonality in DOM export is likely in future due to altered precipitation patterns; (3) changes in species diversity and water properties could encourage algal blooms; and (4) that land management and vegetative changes may have significant effects on DOM export and treatability but require further research. Increases in DBPs may occur where catchments have high influence from peatlands or where algal blooms become an issue. To increase resilience to variable DOM quantity and character we suggest that one or more of the following steps are undertaken at the treatment works: a) ‘enhanced coagulation’ optimised for DOM removal; b) switching from aluminium to ferric coagulants and/or incorporating coagulant aids; c) use of magnetic ion-exchange (MIEX) pre-coagulation; and d) activated carbon filtration post-coagulation. Fluorescence and UV absorbance techniques are highlighted as potential methods for low-cost, rapid on-line process optimisation to improve DOM removal and minimise DBPs.

Urban and agricultural soils: conflicts and trade-offs in the optimization of ecosystem services

On-going human population growth and changing patterns of resource consumption are increasing global demand for ecosystem services, many of which are provided by soils. Some of these ecosystem services are linearly related to the surface area of pervious soil, whereas others show non-linear relationships, making ecosystem service optimization a complex task. As limited land availability creates conflicting demands among various types of land use, a central challenge is how to weigh these conflicting interests and how to achieve the best solutions possible from a perspective of sustainable societal development. These conflicting interests become most apparent in soils that are the most heavily used by humans for specific purposes: urban soils used for green spaces, housing, and other infrastructure and agricultural soils for producing food, fibres and biofuels. We argue that, despite their seemingly divergent uses of land, agricultural and urban soils share common features with regards to interactions between ecosystem services, and that the trade-offs associated with decision-making, while scale- and context-dependent, can be surprisingly similar between the two systems. We propose that the trade-offs within land use types and their soil-related ecosystems services are often disproportional, and quantifying these will enable ecologists and soil scientists to help policy makers optimizing management decisions when confronted with demands for multiple services under limited land availability.

A novel satellite-based ocean monitoring system for Mexico

To analyze patterns in marine productivity, harmful algal blooms, thermal stress in coral reefs, and oceanographic processes, optical and biophysical marine parameters, such as sea surface temperature, and ocean color products, such as chlorophyll-a concentration, diffuse attenuation coefficient, total suspended matter concentration, chlorophyll fluorescence line height, and remote sensing reflectance, are required. In this paper we present a novel automatic Satellite-based Ocean Monitoring System (SATMO) developed to provide, in near real-time, continuous spatial data sets of the above-mentioned variables for marine-coastal ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico, northeastern Pacific Ocean, and western Caribbean Sea, with 1 km spatial resolution. The products are obtained from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images received at the Direct Readout Ground Station (located at CONABIO) after each overpass of the Aqua and Terra satellites. In addition, at the end of each week and month the system provides composite images for several ocean products, as well as weekly and monthly anomaly composites for chlorophyll-a concentration and sea surface temperature. These anomaly data are reported for the first time for the study region and represent valuable information for analyzing time series of ocean color data for the study of coastal and marine ecosystems in Mexico, Central America, and the western Caribbean.

Climate change and water in the UK: past changes and future prospects

Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperature and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper reviews the impact of anthropogenic climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate makes change hard to detect; only historical increases in air temperature can be attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing, but over the last 50 years more winter rainfall has been falling in intense events. Future changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration could lead to changed flow regimes and impacts on water quality, aquatic ecosystems and water availability. Summer flows may decrease on average, but floods may become larger and more frequent. River and lake water quality may decline as a result of higher water temperatures, lower river flows and increased algal blooms in summer, and because of higher flows in the winter. In communicating this important work, researchers should pay particular attention to explaining confidence and uncertainty clearly. Much of the relevant research is either global or highly localized: decision-makers would benefit from more studies that address water and climate change at a spatial and temporal scale appropriate for the decisions they make

Biorefinery strategies for upgrading Distillers’ Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS)

Distillers’ Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) is the major by-product of bioethanol and distillery plants. Due to its high content of proteins, water-soluble vitamins and minerals, DDGS has been long marketed as animal feed for livestock. EU legislation on liquid biofuels could raise the demand on bioethanol production in Europe, with a resulting increase in DDGS availability. DDGS contains a spectrum of complex organic macromolecules, particularly polysaccharides, in addition to proteins and vitamins, and its use as a starting raw material within a biomass-based biorefining strategy could lead to the development of multi-stream processes for the production of commodities, platform molecules or speciality chemicals, with concomitant economic benefits and waste reduction for bioethanol plants. The present review aims to outline the compositional characteristics of DDGS and evaluate its potential utilisation as a starting material for the production of added-value products. Parameters of influence on the chemical and physical characteristics of DDGS are discussed. Moreover, various pre-treatment strategies are outlined in terms of efficient DDGS fractionation into several added value streams. Additional processing steps for the production of medium and high added value compounds from DDGS are evaluated and their potential applications in the food and chemical industry sector are identified.

A sustainable agricultural landscape for Australia: A review of interlacing carbon sequestration, biodiversity and salinity management in agroforestry systems

Transformation of the south-western Australian landscape from deep-rooted woody vegetation systems to shallow-rooted annual cropping systems has resulted in the severe loss of biodiversity and this loss has been exacerbated by rising ground waters that have mobilised stored salts causing extensive dry land salinity. Since the original plant communities were mostly perennial and deep rooted, the model for sustainable agriculture and landscape water management invariably includes deep rooted trees. Commercial forestry is however only economical in higher rainfall (>700 mm yr−1) areas whereas much of the area where biodiversity is threatened has lower rainfall (300–700 mm yr−1). Agroforestry may provide the opportunity to develop new agricultural landscapes that interlace ecosystem services such as carbon mitigation via carbon sequestration and biofuels, biodiversity restoration, watershed management while maintaining food production. Active markets are developing for some of these ecosystem services, however a lack of predictive metrics and the regulatory environment are impeding the adoption of several ecosystem services. Nonetheless, a clear opportunity exists for four major issues – the maintenance of food and fibre production, salinisation, biodiversity decline and climate change mitigation – to be managed at a meaningful scale and a new, sustainable agricultural landscape to be developed.