Scan statistics analysis of forest fire clusters

Spatio-temporal clusters in 1997?2003 fire sequences of Tuscany region (central Italy) have been identified and analysed by using the scan statistic, a method which was devised to evidence clusters in epidemiology. Results showed that the method is reliable to find clusters of events and to evaluate their significance via Monte Carlo replication. The evaluation of the presence of spatial and temporal patterns in fire occurrence and their significance could have a great impact in forthcoming studies on fire occurrences prediction.

On the causes of the African Slave Trade

This paper offers an integrated analysis of the forces shaping the emergence of the African slave trade over the early modern period. We focus our attention on two questions. First, why most of the increase in the demand for slaves during this period came exclusively from western Europeans. Second, and of most relevance for present-day development outcomes, why was the overwhelming majority of slaves of African origin. Technological differences in manufacturing technology, the specificities of sugar (and other crops���) production, and the cultural fragmentation of the African continent all play a role in the analysis. Supporting evidence for each of our claims is provided from a broad corpus of relevant literature.

Ghosts in contemporary African diasporic literature : re-visioning history, memory and identity

Starting from the observation that ghosts are strikingly recurrent and prominent figures in late-twentieth African diasporic literature, this dissertation proposes to account for this presence by exploring its various functions. It argues that, beyond the poetic function the ghost performs as metaphor, it also does cultural, theoretical and political work that is significant to the African diaspora in its dealings with issues of history, memory and identity. Toni Morrison's Beloved (1987) serves as a guide for introducing the many forms, qualities and significations of the ghost, which are then explored and analyzed in four chapters that look at Fred D'Aguiar's Feeding the Ghosts (1998), Gloria Naylor's Mama Day (1988), Paule Marshall's Praisesong for the Widow (1983) and a selection of novels, short stories and poetry by Michelle Cliff. Moving thematically through these texts, the discussion shifts from history through memory to identity as it examines how the ghost trope allows the writers to revisit sites of trauma; revise historical narratives that are constituted and perpetuated by exclusions and invisibilities; creatively and critically repossess a past marked by violence, dislocation and alienation and reclaim the diasporic culture it contributed to shaping; destabilize and deconstruct the hegemonic, normative categories and boundaries that delimit race or sexuality and envision other, less limited and limiting definitions of identity. These diverse and interrelated concerns are identified and theorized as participating in a project of "re-vision," a critical project that constitutes an epistemological as much as a political gesture. The author-based structure allows for a detailed analysis of the texts and highlights the distinctive shapes the ghost takes and the particular concerns it serves to address in each writer's literary and political project. However, using the ghost as a guide into these texts, taken collectively, also throws into relief new connections between them and sheds light on the complex ways in which the interplay of history, memory and identity positions them as products of and contributions to an African diasporic (literary) culture. If it insists on the cultural specificity of African diasporic ghosts, tracing its origins to African cultures and spiritualities, the argument also follows gothic studies' common view that ghosts in literary and cultural productions-like other related figures of the living dead-respond to particular conditions and anxieties. Considering the historical and political context in which the texts under study were produced, the dissertation makes connections between the ghosts in them and African diasporic people's disillusionment with the broken promises of the civil rights movement in the United States and of postcolonial independence in the Caribbean. It reads the texts' theoretical concerns and narrative qualities alongside the contestation of traditional historiography by black and postcolonial studies as well as the broader challenge to conventional notions such as truth, reality, meaning, power or identity by poststructuralism, postcolonialism or queer theory. Drawing on these various theoretical approaches and critical tools to elucidate the ghost's deconstructive power for African diasporic writers' concerns, this work ultimately offers a contribution to "speciality studies," which is currently emerging as a new field of scholarship in cultural theory.

The convenient calculation of some test statistics in models of discrete choice

The paper considers the use of artificial regression in calculating different types of score test when the log

Validity of impedance-based equations for the prediction of total body water as measured by deuterium dilution in African women.

BACKGROUND: Little information is available on the validity of simple and indirect body-composition methods in non-Western populations. Equations for predicting body composition are population-specific, and body composition differs between blacks and whites. OBJECTIVE: We tested the hypothesis that the validity of equations for predicting total body water (TBW) from bioelectrical impedance analysis measurements is likely to depend on the racial background of the group from which the equations were derived. DESIGN: The hypothesis was tested by comparing, in 36 African women, TBW values measured by deuterium dilution with those predicted by 23 equations developed in white, African American, or African subjects. These cross-validations in our African sample were also compared, whenever possible, with results from other studies in black subjects. RESULTS: Errors in predicting TBW showed acceptable values (1.3-1.9 kg) in all cases, whereas a large range of bias (0.2-6.1 kg) was observed independently of the ethnic origin of the sample from which the equations were derived. Three equations (2 from whites and 1 from blacks) showed nonsignificant bias and could be used in Africans. In all other cases, we observed either an overestimation or underestimation of TBW with variable bias values, regardless of racial background, yielding no clear trend for validity as a function of ethnic origin. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this cross-validation study emphasize the need for further fundamental research to explore the causes of the poor validity of TBW prediction equations across populations rather than the need to develop new prediction equations for use in Africa.

Assessing the quality of alternative energy sources: Energy Return On the Investment (EROI), the metabolic pattern of societies and energy statistics

This paper presents an initial challenge to tackle the every so "tricky" points encountered when dealing with energy accounting, and thereafter illustrates how such a system of accounting can be used when assessing for the metabolic changes in societies. The paper is divided in four main sections. The first three, present a general discussion on the main issues encountered when conducting energy analyses. The last section, subsequently, combines this heuristic approach to the actual formalization of it, in quantitative terms, for the analysis of possible energy scenarios. Section one covers the broader issue of how to account for the relevant categories used when accounting for Joules of energy; emphasizing on the clear distinction between Primary Energy Sources (PES) (which are the physical exploited entities that are used to derive useable energy forms (energy carriers)) and Energy Carriers (EC) (the actual useful energy that is transmitted for the appropriate end uses within a society). Section two sheds light on the concept of Energy Return on Investment (EROI). Here, it is emphasized that, there must already be a certain amount of energy carriers available to be able to extract/exploit Primary Energy Sources to thereafter generate a net supply of energy carriers. It is pointed out that this current trend of intense energy supply has only been possible to the great use and dependence on fossil energy. Section three follows up on the discussion of EROI, indicating that a single numeric indicator such as an output/input ratio is not sufficient in assessing for the performance of energetic systems. Rather an integrated approach that incorporates (i) how big the net supply of Joules of EC can be, given an amount of extracted PES (the external constraints); (ii) how much EC needs to be invested to extract an amount of PES; and (iii) the power level that it takes for both processes to succeed, is underlined. Section four, ultimately, puts the theoretical concepts at play, assessing for how the metabolic performances of societies can be accounted for within this analytical framework.

Conflict, Peace and Security in Africa: an Assessment and New Questions After 50 Years of African Independence

Since the independence processes in the African continent, armed conflicts, peace and security have raised concern and attention both at the domestic level and at the international scale. In recent years, all aspects have undergone significant changes which have given rise to intense debate. The end of some historical conflicts has taken place in a context of slight decrease in the number of armed conflicts and the consolidation of post-conflict reconstruction processes. Moreover, African regional organizations have staged an increasingly more active internal shift in matters related to peace and security, encouraged by the idea of promoting ���African solutions to African problems���. This new scenario, has been accompanied by new uncertainties at the security level and major challenges at the operational level, especially for the African Union. This article aims to ascertain the state of affairs on all these issues and raise some key questions to consider.

Vital Statistics of Panstrongylus geniculatus (Latreille 1811) (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) under Experimental Conditions

A statistical evaluation of the population dynamics of Panstrongylus geniculatus is based on a cohort experiment conducted under controlled laboratory conditions. Animals were fed on hen every 15 days. Egg incubation took 21 days; mean duration of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th instar nymphs was 25, 30, 58, 62, and 67 days, respectively; mean nymphal development time was 39 weeks and adult longevity was 72 weeks. Females reproduced during 30 weeks, producing an average of 61.6 eggs for female on its lifetime; the average number of eggs/female/week was 2.1. Total number of eggs produced by the cohort was 1379. Average hatch for the cohort was 88.9%; it was not affected by age of the mother. Age specific survival and reproduction tables were constructed. The following population parameters were evaluated, generation time was 36.1 weeks; net reproduction rate was 89.4; intrinsic rate of natural increase was 0.125; instantaneous birth and death rates were 0.163 and 0.039 respectively; finite rate of increase was 1.13; total reproductive value was 1196 and stable age distribution was 31.2% eggs, 64.7% nymphs and 4.1% adults. Finally the population characteristics of P. geniculatus lead to the conclusion that this species is a K strategist.

Qualit�� des donn��es fournies par la statistique m��dicale VESKA: le cas de la fracture du f��mur proximal. [Quality of data provided by VESKA medical statistics: the case of the fractured proximal femur].

Within the framework of a retrospective study of the incidence of hip fractures in the canton of Vaud (Switzerland), all cases of hip fracture occurring among the resident population in 1986 and treated in the hospitals of the canton were identified from among five different information sources. Relevant data were then extracted from the medical records. At least two sources of information were used to identify cases in each hospital, among them the statistics of the Swiss Hospital Association (VESKA). These statistics were available for 9 of the 18 hospitals in the canton that participated in the study. The number of cases identified from the VESKA statistics was compared to the total number of cases for each hospital. For the 9 hospitals the number of cases in the VESKA statistics was 407, whereas, after having excluded diagnoses that were actually "status after fracture" and double entries, the total for these hospitals was 392, that is 4% less than the VESKA statistics indicate. It is concluded that the VESKA statistics provide a good approximation of the actual number of cases treated in these hospitals, with a tendency to overestimate this number. In order to use these statistics for calculating incidence figures, however, it is imperative that a greater proportion of all hospitals (50% presently in the canton, 35% nationwide) participate in these statistics.

Genomics of the divergence continuum in an African plant biodiversity hotspot, I: drivers of population divergence in Restio capensis (Restionaceae).

Understanding the drivers of population divergence, speciation and species persistence is of great interest to molecular ecology, especially for species-rich radiations inhabiting the world's biodiversity hotspots. The toolbox of population genomics holds great promise for addressing these key issues, especially if genomic data are analysed within a spatially and ecologically explicit context. We have studied the earliest stages of the divergence continuum in the Restionaceae, a species-rich and ecologically important plant family of the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) of South Africa, using the widespread CFR endemic Restio��capensis (L.) H.P. Linder & C.R. Hardy as an example. We studied diverging populations of this morphotaxon for plastid DNA sequences and >14��400 nuclear DNA polymorphisms from Restriction site Associated DNA (RAD) sequencing and analysed the results jointly with spatial, climatic and phytogeographic data, using a Bayesian generalized linear mixed modelling (GLMM) approach. The results indicate that population divergence across the extreme environmental mosaic of the CFR is mostly driven by isolation by environment (IBE) rather than isolation by distance (IBD) for both neutral and non-neutral markers, consistent with genome hitchhiking or coupling effects during early stages of divergence. Mixed modelling of plastid DNA and single divergent outlier loci from a Bayesian genome scan confirmed the predominant role of climate and pointed to additional drivers of divergence, such as drift and ecological agents of selection captured by phytogeographic zones. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of population genomics for disentangling the effects of IBD and IBE along the divergence continuum often found in species radiations across heterogeneous ecological landscapes.

Therapy of Human African Trypanosomiasis: Current Situation

This paper is a review of the current situation of the treatment of human African trypanosomiasis. The existing approved drugs are old, toxic and/or expensive. Therapeutic failures are common. Several factors may contribute to the problems of chemotherapy, including differences in the epidemiology of the disease, difficulties in the diagnosis and staging of the infection, availability, distribution and pharmacologic properties of drugs, standardization of treatment regimens, response to therapy, follow-up period, and relapses and clinical trials. The new therapeutic approaches include the development and approval of new drugs, the use of new therapeutic regimens, the study of drug combinations, and the development of new formulations.