The root locus method: application to linear stability analysis and design of cooperative car-following models

A global framework for linear stability analyses of traffic models, based on the dispersion relation root locus method, is presented and is applied taking the example of a broad class of car-following (CF) models. This approach is able to analyse all aspects of the dynamics: long waves and short wave behaviours, phase velocities and stability features. The methodology is applied to investigate the potential benefits of connected vehicles, i.e. V2V communication enabling a vehicle to send and receive information to and from surrounding vehicles. We choose to focus on the design of the coefficients of cooperation which weights the information from downstream vehicles. The coefficients tuning is performed and different ways of implementing an efficient cooperative strategy are discussed. Hence, this paper brings design methods in order to obtain robust stability of traffic models, with application on cooperative CF models

Predictive models for water sources with high susceptibility for bromine-containing disinfection by-product formation: Implications for water treatment

This study examines a matrix of synthetic water samples designed to include conditions that favour brominated disinfection by-product (Br-DBP) formation, in order to provide predictive models suitable for high Br-DBP forming waters such as salinity-impacted waters. Br-DBPs are known to be more toxic than their chlorinated analogues, in general, and their formation may be favoured by routine water treatment practices such as coagulation/flocculation under specific conditions; therefore, circumstances surrounding their formation must be understood. The chosen factors were bromide concentration, mineral alkalinity, bromide to dissolved organic carbon (Br/DOC) ratio and Suwannee River natural organic matter concentration. The relationships between these parameters and DBP formation were evaluated by response surface modelling of data generated using a face-centred central composite experimental design. Predictive models for ten brominated and/or chlorinated DBPs are presented, as well as models for total trihalomethanes (tTHMs) and total dihaloacetonitriles (tDHANs), and bromide substitution factors for the THMs and DHANs classes. The relationships described revealed that increasing alkalinity and increasing Br/DOC ratio were associated with increasing bromination of THMs and DHANs, suggesting that DOC lowering treatment methods that do not also remove bromide such as enhanced coagulation may create optimal conditions for Br-DBP formation in waters in which bromide is present.

Estimates on the coverage of parameter space using populations of models

In this paper we provide estimates for the coverage of parameter space when using Latin Hypercube Sampling, which forms the basis of building so-called populations of models. The estimates are obtained using combinatorial counting arguments to determine how many trials, k, are needed in order to obtain specified parameter space coverage for a given value of the discretisation size n. In the case of two dimensions, we show that if the ratio (Ø) of trials to discretisation size is greater than 1, then as n becomes moderately large the fractional coverage behaves as 1-exp-ø. We compare these estimates with simulation results obtained from an implementation of Latin Hypercube Sampling using MATLAB.

Comparing multilevel and Bayesian spatial random effects survival models to assess geographical inequalities in colorectal cancer survival: a case study

Background Multilevel and spatial models are being increasingly used to obtain substantive information on area-level inequalities in cancer survival. Multilevel models assume independent geographical areas, whereas spatial models explicitly incorporate geographical correlation, often via a conditional autoregressive prior. However the relative merits of these methods for large population-based studies have not been explored. Using a case-study approach, we report on the implications of using multilevel and spatial survival models to study geographical inequalities in all-cause survival. Methods Multilevel discrete-time and Bayesian spatial survival models were used to study geographical inequalities in all-cause survival for a population-based colorectal cancer cohort of 22,727 cases aged 20–84 years diagnosed during 1997–2007 from Queensland, Australia. Results Both approaches were viable on this large dataset, and produced similar estimates of the fixed effects. After adding area-level covariates, the between-area variability in survival using multilevel discrete-time models was no longer significant. Spatial inequalities in survival were also markedly reduced after adjusting for aggregated area-level covariates. Only the multilevel approach however, provided an estimation of the contribution of geographical variation to the total variation in survival between individual patients. Conclusions With little difference observed between the two approaches in the estimation of fixed effects, multilevel models should be favored if there is a clear hierarchical data structure and measuring the independent impact of individual- and area-level effects on survival differences is of primary interest. Bayesian spatial analyses may be preferred if spatial correlation between areas is important and if the priority is to assess small-area variations in survival and map spatial patterns. Both approaches can be readily fitted to geographically enabled survival data from international settings

Atmospheric pressure gas plasma-induced colorectal cancer cell death is mediated by Nox2-ASK1 apoptosis pathways and oxidative stress is mitigated by Srx-Nrf2 anti-oxidant system

Atmospheric pressure gas plasma (AGP) generates reactive oxygen species (ROS) that induce apoptosis in cultured cancer cells. The majority of cancer cells develop a ROS-scavenging anti-oxidant system regulated by Nrf2, which confers resistance to ROS-mediated cancer cell death. Generation of ROS is involved in the AGP-induced cancer cell death of several colorectal cancer cells (Caco2, HCT116 and SW480) by activation of ASK1-mediated apoptosis signaling pathway without affecting control cells (human colonic sub-epithelial myofibroblasts; CO18, human fetal lung fibroblast; MRC5 and fetal human colon; FHC). However, the identity of an oxidase participating in AGP-induced cancer cell death is unknown. Here, we report that AGP up-regulates the expression of Nox2 (NADPH oxidase) to produce ROS. RNA interference designed to target Nox2 effectively inhibits the AGP-induced ROS production and cancer cell death. In some cases both colorectal cancer HT29 and control cells showed resistance to AGP treatment. Compared to AGP-sensitive Caco2 cells, HT29 cells show a higher basal level of the anti-oxidant system transcriptional regulator Nrf2 and its target protein sulfiredoxin (Srx) which are involved in cellular redox homeostasis. Silencing of both Nrf2 and Srx sensitized HT29 cells, leads to ROS overproduction and decreased cell viability. This indicates that in HT29 cells, Nrf2/Srx axis is a protective factor against AGP-induced oxidative stress. The inhibition of Nrf2/Srx signaling should be considered as a central target in drug-resistant colorectal cancer treatments.

Optimal management of the critically Ill: Anaesthesia, monitoring, data capture, and point-of-care technological practices in ovine models of critical care

Animal models of critical illness are vital in biomedical research. They provide possibilities for the investigation of pathophysiological processes that may not otherwise be possible in humans. In order to be clinically applicable, the model should simulate the critical care situation realistically, including anaesthesia, monitoring, sampling, utilising appropriate personnel skill mix, and therapeutic interventions. There are limited data documenting the constitution of ideal technologically advanced large animal critical care practices and all the processes of the animal model. In this paper, we describe the procedure of animal preparation, anaesthesia induction and maintenance, physiologic monitoring, data capture, point-of-care technology, and animal aftercare that has been successfully used to study several novel ovine models of critical illness. The relevant investigations are on respiratory failure due to smoke inhalation, transfusion related acute lung injury, endotoxin-induced proteogenomic alterations, haemorrhagic shock, septic shock, brain death, cerebral microcirculation, and artificial heart studies. We have demonstrated the functionality of monitoring practices during anaesthesia required to provide a platform for undertaking systematic investigations in complex ovine models of critical illness.

Linear and weakly nonlinear stability analyses of cooperative car-following models

Stability analyses have been widely used to better understand the mechanism of traffic jam formation. In this paper, we consider the impact of cooperative systems (a.k.a. connected vehicles) on traffic dynamics and, more precisely, on flow stability. Cooperative systems are emerging technologies enabling communication between vehicles and/or with the infrastructure. In a distributed communication framework, equipped vehicles are able to send and receive information to/from other equipped vehicles. Here, the effects of cooperative traffic are modeled through a general bilateral multianticipative car-following law that improves cooperative drivers' perception of their surrounding traffic conditions within a given communication range. Linear stability analyses are performed for a broad class of car-following models. They point out different stability conditions in both multianticipative and nonmultianticipative situations. To better understand what happens in unstable conditions, information on the shock wave structure is studied in the weakly nonlinear regime by the mean of the reductive perturbation method. The shock wave equation is obtained for generic car-following models by deriving the Korteweg de Vries equations. We then derive traffic-state-dependent conditions for the sign of the solitary wave (soliton) amplitude. This analytical result is verified through simulations. Simulation results confirm the validity of the speed estimate. The variation of the soliton amplitude as a function of the communication range is provided. The performed linear and weakly nonlinear analyses help justify the potential benefits of vehicle-integrated communication systems and provide new insights supporting the future implementation of cooperative systems.

Convergence of regenerative medicine and synthetic biology to develop standardized and validated models of human diseases with clinical relevance

In order to progress beyond currently available medical devices and implants, the concept of tissue engineering has moved into the centre of biomedical research worldwide. The aim of this approach is not to replace damaged tissue with an implant or device but rather to prompt the patient's own tissue to enact a regenerative response by using a tissue-engineered construct to assemble new functional and healthy tissue. More recently, it has been suggested that the combination of Synthetic Biology and translational tissue-engineering techniques could enhance the field of personalized medicine, not only from a regenerative medicine perspective, but also to provide frontier technologies for building and transforming the research landscape in the field of in vitro and in vivo disease models.

Estimating the parameters of stochastic volatility models using option price data

This article describes a maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of the standard square-root stochastic volatility model and a variant of the model that includes jumps in equity prices. The model is fitted to data on the S&P 500 Index and the prices of vanilla options written on the index, for the period 1990 to 2011. The method is able to estimate both the parameters of the physical measure (associated with the index) and the parameters of the risk-neutral measure (associated with the options), including the volatility and jump risk premia. The estimation is implemented using a particle filter whose efficacy is demonstrated under simulation. The computational load of this estimation method, which previously has been prohibitive, is managed by the effective use of parallel computing using graphics processing units (GPUs). The empirical results indicate that the parameters of the models are reliably estimated and consistent with values reported in previous work. In particular, both the volatility risk premium and the jump risk premium are found to be significant.

Regolith mass balance inferred from combined mineralogical, geochemical and geophysical studies: Mule Hole gneissic watershed, South India

The aim of this study is to propose a method to assess the long-term chemical weathering mass balance for a regolith developed on a heterogeneous silicate substratum at the small experimental watershed scale by adopting a combined approach of geophysics, geochemistry and mineralogy. We initiated in 2003 a study of the steep climatic gradient and associated geomorphologic features of the edge of the rifted continental passive margin of the Karnataka Plateau, Peninsular India. In the transition sub-humid zone of this climatic gradient we have studied the pristine forested small watershed of Mule Hole (4.3 km(2)) mainly developed on gneissic substratum. Mineralogical, geochemical and geophysical investigations were carried out (i) in characteristic red soil profiles and (ii) in boreholes up to 60 m deep in order to take into account the effect of the weathering mantle roots. In addition, 12 Electrical Resistivity Tomography profiles (ERT), with an investigation depth of 30 m, were generated at the watershed scale to spatially characterize the information gathered in boreholes and soil profiles. The location of the ERT profiles is based on a previous electromagnetic survey, with an investigation depth of about 6 m. The soil cover thickness was inferred from the electromagnetic survey combined with a geological/pedological survey. Taking into account the parent rock heterogeneity, the degree of weathering of each of the regolith samples has been defined using both the mineralogical composition and the geochemical indices (Loss on Ignition, Weathering Index of Parker, Chemical Index of Alteration). Comparing these indices with electrical resistivity logs, it has been found that a value of 400 Ohm m delineates clearly the parent rocks and the weathered materials, Then the 12 inverted ERT profiles were constrained with this value after verifying the uncertainty due to the inversion procedure. Synthetic models based on the field data were used for this purpose. The estimated average regolith thickness at the watershed scale is 17.2 m, including 15.2 m of saprolite and 2 m of soil cover. Finally, using these estimations of the thicknesses, the long-term mass balance is calculated for the average gneiss-derived saprolite and red soil. In the saprolite, the open-system mass-transport function T indicates that all the major elements except Ca are depleted. The chlorite and biotite crystals, the chief sources for Mg (95%), Fe (84%), Mn (86%) and K (57%, biotite only), are the first to undergo weathering and the oligoclase crystals are relatively intact within the saprolite with a loss of only 18%. The Ca accumulation can be attributed to the precipitation of CaCO3 from the percolating solution due to the current and/or the paleoclimatic conditions. Overall, the most important losses occur for Si, Mg and Na with -286 x 10(6) mol/ha (62% of the total mass loss), -67 x 10(6) mol/ha (15% of the total mass loss) and -39 x 10(6) mol/ha (9% of the total mass loss), respectively. Al, Fe and K account for 7%, 4% and 3% of the total mass loss, respectively. In the red soil profiles, the open-system mass-transport functions point out that all major elements except Mn are depleted. Most of the oligoclase crystals have broken down with a loss of 90%. The most important losses occur for Si, Na and Mg with -55 x 10(6) mol/ha (47% of the total mass loss), -22 x 10(6) mol/ha (19% of the total mass loss) and -16 x 10(6) mol/ha (14% of the total mass loss), respectively. Ca, Al, K and Fe account for 8%, 6%, 4% and 2% of the total mass loss, respectively. Overall these findings confirm the immaturity of the saprolite at the watershed scale. The soil profiles are more evolved than saprolite but still contain primary minerals that can further undergo weathering and hence consume atmospheric CO2.

Problems with geoengineering schemes to combat climate change

The accelerated rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration in recent years has revived the idea of stabilizing the global climate through geoengineering schemes. Majority of the proposed geoengineering schemes will attempt to reduce the amount of solar radiation absorbed by our planet. Climate modelling studies of these so called 'sunshade geoengineering schemes' show that global warming from increasing concentrations of CO2 can be mitigated by intentionally manipulating the amount of sunlight absorbed by the climate system. These studies also suggest that the residual changes could be large on regional scales, so that climate change may not be mitigated on a local basis. More recent modelling studies have shown that these schemes could lead to a slow-down in the global hydrological cycle. Other problems such as changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle and ocean acidification remain unsolved by sunshade geoengineering schemes. In this article, I review the proposed geoengineering schemes, results from climate models and discuss why geoengineering is not the best option to deal with climate change.

Compositional agent-based models for electricity distribution networks

This thesis presents a novel approach to building large-scale agent-based models of networked physical systems using a compositional approach to provide extensibility and flexibility in building the models and simulations. A software framework (MODAM - MODular Agent-based Model) was implemented for this purpose, and validated through simulations. These simulations allow assessment of the impact of technological change on the electricity distribution network looking at the trajectories of electricity consumption at key locations over many years.

Characterisation, toxicity and source apportionment of atmospheric organic pollutants in urban schools

Airborne organic pollutants have significant impacts on health; however their sources, atmospheric characteristics and resulting human exposures are poorly understood. This research characterized chemical composition of atmospheric volatile organic compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and carbonyls in representative number of primary schools in Brisbane Metropolitan Area, quantified their concentrations, assessed their toxicity and apportioned them to their sources. The findings expand scientific knowledge of these pollutants, and will contribute towards science based management of risks associated with pollution emissions and air quality in schools and other urban and indoor environments.

Multiphase models for simulating hot and slightly miscible DNAPL (dense non-aqueous phase fluids) in a saturated rock fracture under deformation

In the present study a two dimensional model is first developed to show the behaviour of dense non-aqueous phase liquids (DNAPL) within a rough fracture. To consider the rough fracture, the fracture is imposed with variable apertures along its plane. It is found that DNAPL follows preferential pathways. In next part of the study the above model is further extended for non-isothermal DNAPL flow and DNAPL-water interphase mass transfer phenomenon. These two models are then coupled with joint deformation due to normal stresses. The primary focus of these models is specifically to elucidate the influence of joint alteration due to external stress and fluid pressures on flow driven energy transport and interphase mass transfer. For this, it is assumed that the critical value for joint alteration is associated with external stress and average of water and DNAPL pressures in multiphase system and the temporal and spatial evolution of joint alteration are determined for its further influence on energy transport and miscible phase transfer. The developed model has been studied to show the influence of deformation on DNAPL flow. Further this preliminary study demonstrates the influence of joint deformation on heat transport and phase miscibility via multiphase flow velocities. It is seen that the temperature profile changes and shows higher diffusivity due to deformation and although the interphase miscibility value decreases but the lateral dispersion increases to a considerably higher extent.