Forecasting the spot prices of various coffee types using linear and non-linear error correction models

Este documento estima modelos lineales y no-lineales de corrección de errores para los precios spot de cuatro tipos de café. En concordancia con las leyes económicas, se encuentra evidencia que cuando los precios están por encima de su nivel de equilibrio, retornan a éste mas lentamente que cuando están por debajo. Esto puede reflejar el hecho que, en el corto plazo, para los países productores de café es mas fácil restringir la oferta para incrementar precios, que incrementarla para reducirlos. Además, se encuentra evidencia que el ajuste es más rápido cuando las desviaciones del equilibrio son mayores. Los pronósticos que se obtienen a partir de los modelos de corrección de errores no lineales y asimétricos considerados en el trabajo, ofrecen una leve mejoría cuando se comparan con los pronósticos que resultan de un modelo de paseo aleatorio.

Stock return comovements and integration within the Latin American integrated market

Financial integration has been pursued aggressively across the globe in the last fifty years; however, there is no conclusive evidence on the diversification gains (or losses) of such efforts. These gains (or losses) are related to the degree of comovements and synchronization among increasingly integrated global markets. We quantify the degree of comovements within the integrated Latin American market (MILA). We use dynamic correlation models to quantify comovements across securities as well as a direct integration measure. Our results show an increase in comovements when we look at the country indexes, however, the increase in the trend of correlation is previous to the institutional efforts to establish an integrated market in the region. On the other hand, when we look at sector indexes and an integration measure, we find a decreased in comovements among a representative sample of securities form the integrated market.

El rol de la interdependencia asimétrica de Ucrania a Rusia en la calidad de la democracia ucraniana 2004 – 2010

El objetivo de este trabajo es explicar el rol de la Interdependencia Asimétrica de Rusia y Ucrania en la Calidad de la Democracia ucraniana 2004-2010; las democracias actuales se ven afectadas por actores externos dado el afianzamiento de relaciones económicas asimétricas. El estudio de caso será abordado desde el concepto de Calidad de la Democracia de Leonardo Morlino y el de Internacionalización de Robert Keohane y Helen Milner. La Revolución Naranja, las crisis del gas de 2006 - 2009 y las elecciones de 2010 serán los fenómenos explicados. Desde un enfoque neo-institucional, las relaciones de Interdependencia Asimétrica de Ucrania con Rusia, afectan la calidad de la democracia ucraniana configurándose en un actor más de la política doméstica.

Estrategia de intervención militar de Estados Unidos en Medio Oriente: dinámicas y consecuencias del uso de drones en Yemen y Pakistán entre 2009 a 2013

Este es un estudio sobre la estrategia de guerra estadounidense en Medio Oriente basada en el uso sistemático de drones durante el periodo comprendido entre 2009 y 2013. Se busca explicar de qué manera puede considerarse el uso de este tipo de armamento como una práctica basada en la proyección de poder sin mayor vulnerabilidad. Los casos de Pakistán y Yemen son abordados, ya que evidencian las características de las operaciones selectivas por las que ha abogado el Presidente Obama. El estudio se inscribe dentro del realismo ofensivo, haciendo también referencia a sus limitaciones explicativas. Empero, se afirma que las dinámicas y consecuencias de la utilización de drones son intrínsecas a la necesidad estadounidense de combatir actores no estatales mediante prácticas que garanticen su seguridad y pretensiones hegemónicas a pesar de las implicaciones políticas , legales y sociales en las que puede incurrir.

Síntesi i Caracterització de Nous Complexos de Ruteni contenint Lligands Quirals. Aplicacions en Catàlisi Asimètrica

La Tesis describe una serie de complejos de Rutenio conteniendo ligandos quirales y su aplicación en catálisis asimétrica. Por un lado se describe el complejo [RuCl(bpea)((S)-BINAP)](BF4), donde (S)-BINAP es una difosfina quiral y bpea un ligando N-tridentado. Su aplicación en catálisis de hidrogenación asimétrica de sustratos olefínicos y carbonílicos, tanto en fase homogénea como heterogénea (tras inmovilización sobre soportes alumino-fosfato), ha mostrado excelentes resultados de conversión y excesos enantioméricos. Aparte, se ha desarrollado una familia de complejos con fórmula [Ru(T)(B)X], donde T representa un ligando tri-N-dentado, B una di-oxazolina quiral y X es Cl o H2O. Se ha estudiado la actividad catalítica de los aquocomplejos con T = tpm en epoxidaciones, determinándose la influencia de los sustituyentes en B sobre el rendimiento y la quimioselectividad, favorecidos por interacciones de tipo π-stacking. El uso de otros ligandos tridentados ha llevado a su rotura, habiéndose caracterizado sin embargo los correspondientes complejos

Síntesi, caracterització i avaluació com a catalitzadors de nous complexos quirals de platí

The oxidative addition proved to be a useful method to prepare platinum (II) hydridotiolate by reaction of tetrakis(triphenylphosphine)platinum(0) with aminothiolate and phosphinothiolate ligands like cysteamine, cysteine ethyl and methyl Esther, 2-(diphenylphosphino)ethanetiol and 2-(diphenylphosphino)propanetiol. The complexes are square-planar and the aminothiolate or phosphinothiolate ligands are chelated to platinum (II). The hydrido ligand is trans to the sulfur and the other coordination position is occuped by a triphenylphosphine ligand. The complexes are mononuclear and they show low symmetry. The only symmetry element, the plan is broke if the ligand is branched, obtaining asymmetric complexes C1. If the ligand has electronic or esteric impediments the reaction doesn't run and the starting products are recovered. This was observed with N,N-dimethylcysteamine and penicylamine methyl esther ligands. In the special case of orthoaminotiophenol the hydridotiolate was obtained but the ligand was not chelated. The aminothiolate complexes don't show solution equilibrium. Otherwise, the complexe with 2-(diphenylphosphino)ethanetiol show an isomerisation equilibrium which forms cis isomer as a minor component. The complexe with 2-(diphenylphosphino)-propanetiol shows a conformational equilibrium between chair and twist forms. The complexes have been tested as catalyst precursors in hydroformylation and hydrosilylation reactions. The hydroformylation reaction runs only in presence of SnCl2 as cocatalyst. Catalytic activity depends on the presence of triphenylphosphine and, with less magnitude, CO and H2 pressure. We also studied the enantioselectivity using a chiral complexe. In the hydrosililation reaction, catalysts run with good results (<90%) using triethylsilane as silicon hydride. Dehydrogenative addition product has been also found in this reaction.

Desenvolupament, implementació i aplicació de noves metodologies per a l'estudi de la reactivitat química i de les propietats òptiques no lineals

El coneixement de la superfície d'energia potencial (PES) ha estat essencial en el món de la química teòrica per tal de discutir tant la reactivitat química com l'estructura i l'espectroscòpia molecular. En el camp de la reactivitat química es hem proposat continuar amb el desenvolupament de nova metodologia dins el marc de la teoria del funcional de la densitat conceptual. En particular aquesta tesis es centrarà en els següents punts: a) El nombre i la naturalesa dels seus punts estacionaris del PES poden sofrir canvis radicals modificant el nivell de càlcul utilitzats, de tal manera que per estar segurs de la seva naturalesa cal anar a nivells de càlcul molt elevats. La duresa és una mesura de la resistència d'un sistema químic a canviar la seva configuració electrònica, i segons el principi de màxima duresa on hi hagi un mínim o un màxim d'energia trobarem un màxim o un mínim de duresa, respectivament. A l'escollir tot un conjunt de reaccions problemàtiques des del punt de vista de presència de punts estacionaris erronis, hem observat que els perfils de duresa són més independents de la base i del mètode utilitzats, a més a més sempre presenten el perfil correcte. b) Hem desenvolupat noves expressions basades en les integracions dels kernels de duresa per tal de determinar la duresa global d'una molècula de manera més precisa que la utilitzada habitualment que està basada en el càlcul numèric de la derivada segona de l'energia respecte al número d'electrons. c) Hem estudiat la validesa del principis de màxima duresa i de mínima polaritzabiliat en les vibracions asimètriques en sistemes aromàtics. Hem trobat que per aquests sistemes alguns modes vibracionals incompleixen aquests principis i hem analitzat la relació d'aquest l'incompliment amb l'efecte de l'acoblament pseudo-Jahn-Teller. A més a més, hem postulat tot un conjunt de regles molt senzilles que ens permetien deduir si una molècula compliria o no aquests principis sense la realització de cap càlcul previ. Tota aquesta informació ha estat essencial per poder determinar exactament quines són les causes del compliment o l'incompliment del MHP i MPP. d) Finalment, hem realitzat una expansió de l'energia funcional en termes del nombre d'electrons i de les coordenades normals dintre del conjunt canònic. En la comparació d'aquesta expansió amb l'expansió de l'energia del nombre d'electrons i del potencial extern hem pogut recuperar d'una altra forma diferent tot un conjunt de relacions ja conegudes entre alguns coneguts descriptors de reactivitat del funcional de la densitat i en poden establir tot un conjunt de noves relacions i de nous descriptors. Dins del marc de les propietats moleculars es proposa generalitzar i millorar la metodologia pel càlcul de la contribució vibracional (Pvib) a les propietats òptiques no lineals (NLO). Tot i que la Pvib no s'ha tingut en compte en la majoria dels estudis teòrics publicats de les propietats NLO, recentment s'ha comprovat que la Pvib de diversos polímers orgànics amb altes propietats òptiques no lineals és fins i tot més gran que la contribució electrònica. Per tant, tenir en compte la Pvib és essencial en el disseny dels nous materials òptics no lineals utilitzats en el camp de la informàtica, les telecomunicacions i la tecnologia làser. Les principals línies d'aquesta tesis sobre aquest tema són: a) Hem calculat per primera vegada els termes d'alt ordre de Pvib de diversos polímers orgànics amb l'objectiu d'avaluar la seva importància i la convergència de les sèries de Taylor que defineixen aquestes contribucions vibracionals. b) Hem avaluat les contribucions electròniques i vibracionals per una sèrie de molècules orgàniques representatives utilitzant diferents metodologies, per tal de poder de determinar quina és la manera més senzilla per poder calcular les propietats NLO amb una precisió semiquantitativa.

The effects of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) on auditory brainstem responses (ABR) in neonates

This paper presents a study of the effects of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) on the auditory brainstem response (ABR) of twenty-three neonates, and whether there was asymmetric ABRs in the neonates who had ECMO.

A new perspective on Southern hemisphere storm-tracks.

A detailed view of Southern Hemisphere storm tracks is obtained based on the application of filtered variance and modern feature-tracking techniques to a wide range of 45-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. It has been checked that the conclusions drawn in this study are valid even if data from only the satellite era are used. The emphasis of the paper is on the winter season, but results for the four seasons are also discussed. Both upper- and lower-tropospheric fields are used. The tracking analysis focuses on systems that last longer than 2 days and are mobile (move more than 1000 km). Many of the results support previous ideas about the storm tracks, but some new insights are also obtained. In the summer there is a rather circular, strong, deep high-latitude storm track. In winter the high-latitude storm track is more asymmetric with a spiral from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans in toward Antarctica and a subtropical jet–related lower-latitude storm track over the Pacific, again tending to spiral poleward. At all times of the year, maximum storm activity in the higher-latitude storm track is in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean regions. In the winter upper troposphere, the relative importance of, and interplay between, the subtropical and subpolar storm tracks is discussed. The genesis, lysis, and growth rate of lower-tropospheric winter cyclones together lead to a vivid picture of their behavior that is summarized as a set of overlapping plates, each composed of cyclone life cycles. Systems in each plate appear to feed the genesis in the next plate through downstream development in the upper-troposphere spiral storm track. In the lee of the Andes in South America, there is cyclogenesis associated with the subtropical jet and also, poleward of this, cyclogenesis largely associated with system decay on the upslope and regeneration on the downslope. The genesis and lysis of cyclones and anticyclones have a definite spatial relationship with each other and with the Andes. At 500 hPa, their relative longitudinal positions are consistent with vortex-stretching ideas for simple flow over a large-scale mountain. Cyclonic systems near Antarctica have generally spiraled in from lower latitudes. However, cyclogenesis associated with mobile cyclones occurs around the Antarctic coast with an interesting genesis maximum over the sea ice near 150°E. The South Pacific storm track emerges clearly from the tracking as a coherent deep feature spiraling from Australia to southern South America. A feature of the summer season is the genesis of eastward-moving cyclonic systems near the tropic of Capricorn off Brazil, in the central Pacific and, to a lesser extent, off Madagascar, followed by movement along the southwest flanks of the subtropical anticyclones and contribution to the “convergence zone” cloud bands seen in these regions.

Enhancement of ENSO variability by a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation in a coupled GCM

A coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model is used to investigate the modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability due to a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The THC weakening is induced by freshwater perturbations in the North Atlantic, and leads to a well-known sea surface temperature dipole and a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the tropical Atlantic. Through atmospheric teleconnections and local coupled air–sea feedbacks, a meridionally asymmetric mean state change is generated in the eastern equatorial Pacific, corresponding to a weakened annual cycle, and westerly anomalies develop over the central Pacific. The westerly anomalies are associated with anomalous warming of SST, causing an eastward extension of the west Pacific warm pool particularly in August–February, and enhanced precipitation. These and other changes in the mean state lead in turn to an eastward shift of the zonal wind anomalies associated with El Niño events, and a significant increase in ENSO variability. In response to a 1-Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) freshwater input in the North Atlantic, the THC slows down rapidly and it weakens by 86% over years 50–100. The Niño-3 index standard deviation increases by 36% during the first 100-yr simulation relative to the control simulation. Further analysis indicates that the weakened THC not only leads to a stronger ENSO variability, but also leads to a stronger asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña events. This study suggests a role for an atmospheric bridge that rapidly conveys the influence of the Atlantic Ocean to the tropical Pacific and indicates that fluctuations of the THC can mediate not only mean climate globally but also modulate interannual variability. The results may contribute to understanding both the multidecadal variability of ENSO activity during the twentieth century and longer time-scale variability of ENSO, as suggested by some paleoclimate records.

6-man chess and zugzwangs

With 6-man Chess essentially solved, the available 6-man Endgame Tables (EGTs) have been scanned for zugzwang positions where, unusually, having the move is a disadvantage. Review statistics together with some highlights and positions are provided here: the complete information is available on the ICGA website. An outcome of the review is the observation that the definition of zugzwang should be revisited, if only because the presence of en passant capture moves gives rise to three new, asymmetric types of zugzwang.

Transfer across form and modality in implicit and explicit memory

Three experiments examined transfer across form (words/pictures) and modality (visual/ auditory) in written word, auditory word, and pictorial implicit memory tests, as well as on a free recall task. Experiment 1 showed no significant transfer across form on any of the three implicit memory tests,and an asymmetric pattern of transfer across modality. In contrast, the free recall results revealed a very different picture. Experiment 2 further investigated the asymmetric modality effects obtained for the implicit memory measures by employing articulatory suppression and picture naming to control the generation of phonological codes. Finally, Experiment 3 examined the effects of overt word naming and covert picture labelling on transfer between study and test form. The results of the experiments are discussed in relation to Tulving and Schacter's (1990) Perceptual Representation Systems framework and Roediger's (1990) Transfer Appropriate Processing theory.

A critical assessment of unbalanced surface stresses: Some complementary considerations

The wide-ranging survey of twisted growth in polymers by Lotz and Cheng cites extensive evidence consistent with the relief of surface stress being the underlying cause. This complementary note contributes to the discussion by making three main points. First, it is necessary to go further and explain the key issue of how a consistent twist is maintained when, as commonly, this habit has a lower symmetry than the crystallographic lattice. Detailed study has shown that, in polyethylene, this occurs by reorganization of the initial fold surfaces. Second, the suggested explanation by Keith and Padden that. in polyethylene, the asymmetric habit derives from molecules adding to lamellae with inclined fold surfaces is invalid being doubly inconsistent with observation. Third, twisting has now been linked to faster growth by study of row structures in polyethylene. This produces inherently rough fold surfaces in Regime II whose internal stresses drive reorganization and twisting. For slower (Regime I) growth, fold surfaces form with and maintain ordered packing so providing no basis for twisting. These new insights radically alter the context of twisted growth and provide a firm factual basis for further work. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Organizational effects of fetal testosterone on human corpus callosum size and asymmetry

Previous theory and research in animals has identified the critical role that fetal testosterone (FT) plays in organizing sexually dimorphic brain development. However, to date there are no studies in humans directly testing the organizational effects of FT on structural brain development. In the current study we investigated the effects of FT on corpus callosum size and asymmetry. High-resolution structural magnetic resonance images (MRI) of the brain were obtained on 28 8-11-year-old boys whose exposure to FT had been previously measured in utero via amniocentesis conducted during the second trimester. Although there was no relationship between FT and midsaggital corpus callosum size, increasing FT was significantly related to increasing rightward asymmetry (e.g., Right>Left) of a posterior subsection of the callosum, the isthmus, that projects mainly to parietal and superior temporal areas. This potential organizational effect of FT on rightward callosal asymmetry may be working through enhancing the neuroprotective effects of FT and result in an asymmetric distribution of callosal axons. We suggest that this possible organizational effect of FT on callosal asymmetry may also play a role in shaping sexual dimorphism in functional and structural brain development, cognition, and behavior.

The microwave spectrum of 1-pyrazoline

The microwave spectrum of 1-pyrazoline has been observed from 18 to 40 GHz in the six lowest states of the ring-puckering vibration. It is an a-type spectrum of a near oblate asymmetric top. Each vibrational state has been fitted to a separate effective Hamiltonian, and the vibrational dependence of both the rotational constants and the quartic centrifugal distortion constants has been observed and analyzed. The v = 0 and 1 states have also been analyzed using a coupled Hamiltonian; this gives consistent results, with an improved fit to the high J data. The preferred choice of Durig et al. [J. Chem. Phys. 52, 6096 (1970)] for the ring-puckering potential is confirmed as essentially correct, but the A and B inertial axes are shown to be interchanged from those assumed by Durig et al. in their analysis of the mid-infrared spectrum.