935 resultados para 340402 Econometric and Statistical Methods
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The south of Minas Gerais, Brazil stands out among various regions through its capacity for production of specialty coffees. Its potential, manifested through being one of the most award-winning Brazilian regions in recent years, has been recognized by the Cup of Excellence (COE). With the evident relationship between product quality and the environment in mind, the need arises for scientific studies to provide a foundation for discrimination of product origin, creating new methods for combating possible fraud. The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of carbon and nitrogen isotopes in discrimination of production environments of specialty coffees from the Serra da Mantiqueira of Minas Gerais by means of the discriminant model. Coffee samples were composed of ripe yellow and red fruits collected manually at altitudes below 1,000 m, from 1,000 to 1,200 m and above 1,200 m. The yellow and red fruits were subjected to dry processing and wet processing, with five replications. A total of 119 samples were used for discrimination of specialty coffee production environments by means of stable isotopes and statistical modeling. The model generated had an accuracy rate of 89% in discrimination of environments and was composed of the isotope variables of δ15N, δ13C, %C, %N, δD, δ18O (meteoric water) and sensory analysis scores. In addition, for the first time, discrimination of environments on a local geographic scale, within a single municipality, was proposed and successfully concluded. This shows that isotope analysis is an effective method in verifying geographic origin for specialty coffees.
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Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been widely applied to the resolution of complex biological problems. An important feature of neural models is that their implementation is not precluded by the theoretical distribution shape of the data used. Frequently, the performance of ANNs over linear or non-linear regression-based statistical methods is deemed to be significantly superior if suitable sample sizes are provided, especially in multidimensional and non-linear processes. The current work was aimed at utilising three well-known neural network methods in order to evaluate whether these models would be able to provide more accurate outcomes in relation to a conventional regression method in pupal weight predictions of Chrysomya megacephala, a species of blowfly (Diptera: Calliphoridae), using larval density (i.e. the initial number of larvae), amount of available food and pupal size as input data. It was possible to notice that the neural networks yielded more accurate performances in comparison with the statistical model (multiple regression). Assessing the three types of networks utilised (Multi-layer Perceptron, Radial Basis Function and Generalised Regression Neural Network), no considerable differences between these models were detected. The superiority of these neural models over a classical statistical method represents an important fact, because more accurate models may clarify several intricate aspects concerning the nutritional ecology of blowflies.
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Background and aims South America and Oceania possess numerous floristic similarities, often confirmed by morphological and molecular data. The carnivorous Drosera meristocaulis (Droseraceae), endemic to the Neblina highlands of northern South America, was known to share morphological characters with the pygmy sundews of Drosera sect. Bryastrum, which are endemic to Australia and New Zealand. The inclusion of D. meristocaulis in a molecular phylogenetic analysis may clarify its systematic position and offer an opportunity to investigate character evolution in Droseraceae and phylogeographic patterns between South America and Oceania. Methods Drosera meristocaulis was included in a molecular phylogenetic analysis of Droseraceae, using nuclear internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and plastid rbcL and rps16 sequence data. Pollen of D. meristocaulis was studied using light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy techniques, and the karyotype was inferred from root tip meristem. Key Results The phylogenetic inferences (maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches) substantiate with high statistical support the inclusion of sect. Meristocaulis and its single species, D. meristocaulis, within the Australian Drosera clade, sister to a group comprising species of sect. Bryastrum. A chromosome number of 2n = approx. 32–36 supports the phylogenetic position within the Australian clade. The undivided styles, conspicuous large setuous stipules, a cryptocotylar (hypogaeous) germination pattern and pollen tetrads with aperture of intermediate type 7–8 are key morphological traits shared between D. meristocaulis and pygmy sundews of sect. Bryastrum from Australia and New Zealand. Conclusions The multidisciplinary approach adopted in this study (using morphological, palynological, cytotaxonomic and molecular phylogenetic data) enabled us to elucidate the relationships of the thus far unplaced taxon D. meristocaulis. Long-distance dispersal between southwestern Oceania and northern South America is the most likely scenario to explain the phylogeographic pattern revealed.
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In reviewing methods of predator control, it would first seem appropriate to define what is meant "by "methods" and what is meant by "control." Taking the last term first, control, as applied to the predatory coyotes, bobcats, and foxes, may be defined as regulating the numbers of these animals to the point where the economic losses for which they are responsible will be reduced to a practicable minimum. In some situations, area control, i.e., limiting the numbers of the offending predator over wide areas, may be necessary for satisfactory reduction of economic losses; in other situations, spot control or localized reduction of numbers of a certain predator may be called for; in still other situations, elimination of an individual animal may be all the control that is needed. In no sense is control, as applied to coyotes, bobcats, and foxes, intended to mean extermi¬nation of a species. The term "methods" is interpreted as meaning the procedures employed against coyotes, bobcats, and foxes, and not the broader systems of predator control such as the paid hunter system, the extension system, or the much-discredited bounty system. For an excellent review of the systems of predator control, see Latham (l).
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Most people have accepted the fact that all living things can be beneficial to mankind in some way or other. This is especially true of our wild birds, since they provide enjoyment and wholesome recreation for most of us, regardless of whether we live on farms or in the city. But despite the fact that wild birds are for the most part beneficial, at times individuals or populations of certain species can seriously affect man's interests. When such situations occur, some measures of relief are desirable and usually eagerly sought. This report is not intended to answer all the questions that may arise concerning problems with blackbirds and starlings; instead, it is merely a summary of measures used to protect agricultural crops from these birds.
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With the “social turn” of language in the past decade within English studies, ethnographic and teacher research methods increasingly have acquired legitimacy as a means of studying student literacy. And with this legitimacy, graduate students specializing in literacy and composition studies increasingly are being encouraged to use ethnographic and teacher research methods to study student literacy within classrooms. Yet few of the narratives produced from these studies discuss the problems that frequently arise when participant observers enter the classroom. Recently, some researchers have begun to interrogate the extent to which ethnographic and teacher research methods are able to construct and disseminate knowledge in empowering ways (Anderson & Irvine, 1993; Bishop, 1993; Fine, 1994; Fleischer. 1994; McLaren, 1992). While ethnographic and teacher research methods have oftentimes been touted as being more democratic and nonhierarchical than quantitative methods—-which oftentimes erase individuals lived experiences with numbers and statistical formulas—-researchers are just beginning to probe the ways that ethnographic and teacher research models can also be silencing, unreflective, and oppressive. Those who have begun to question the ethics of conducting, writing about, and disseminating knowledge in education have coined the term “critical” research, a rather vague and loose term that proposes a position of reflexivity and self-critique for all research methods, not just ethnography or teacher research. Drawing upon theories of feminist consciousness-raising, liberatory praxis, and community-action research, theories of critical research aim to involve researchers and participants in a highly participatory framework for constructing knowledge, an inquiry that seeks to question, disrupt, or intervene in the conditions under study for some socially transformative end. While critical research methods are always contingent upon the context being studied, in general they are undergirded by principles of non-hierarchical relations, participatory collaboration, problem-posing, dialogic inquiry, and multiple and multi-voiced interpretations. In distinguishing between critical and traditional ethnographic processes, for instance, Peter McLaren says that critical ethnography asks questions such as “[u]nder what conditions and to what ends do we. as educational researchers, enter into relations of cooperation. mutuality, and reciprocity with those who we research?” (p. 78) and “what social effects do you want your evaluations and understandings to have?” (p. 83). In»the same vein, Michelle Fine suggests that critical researchers must move beyond notions of the etic/emic dichotomy of researcher positionality in order to “probe how we are in relation with the contexts we study and with our informants, understanding that we are all multiple in those relations” (p. 72). Researchers in composition and literacy stud¬ies who endorse critical research methods, then, aim to enact some sort of positive transformative change in keeping with the needs and interests of the participants with whom they work.
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OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study were to verify the degree of anxiety, respiratory distress, and health-related quality of life in a group of asthmatic patients who have experienced previous panic attacks. Additionally, we evaluated if a respiratory physiotherapy program (breathing retraining) improved both asthma and panic disorder symptoms, resulting in an improvement in the health-related quality of life of asthmatics. METHODS: Asthmatic individuals were assigned to a chest physiotherapy group that included a breathing retraining program held once a week for three months or a paired control group that included a Subtle Touch program. All patients were assessed using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders IV, the Sheehan Anxiety Scale, the Quality of Life Questionnaire, and spirometry parameter measurements. RESULTS: Both groups had high marks for panic disorder and agoraphobia, which limited their quality of life. The Breathing Retraining Group program improved the clinical control of asthma, reduced panic symptoms and agoraphobia, decreased patient scores on the Sheehan Anxiety Scale, and improved their quality of life. Spirometry parameters were unchanged. CONCLUSION: Breathing retraining improves the clinical control of asthma and anxiety symptoms and the health-related quality of life in asthmatic patients.
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Background: Aortic aneurysm and dissection are important causes of death in older people. Ruptured aneurysms show catastrophic fatality rates reaching near 80%. Few population-based mortality studies have been published in the world and none in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to use multiple-cause-of-death methodology in the analysis of mortality trends related to aortic aneurysm and dissection in the state of Sao Paulo, between 1985 and 2009. Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which aortic aneurysm and dissection were listed as a cause-of-death. The variables sex, age, season of the year, and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using standardized mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analyses were performed by chi-square goodness-of-fit and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, and variance analysis. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate changes in age-standardized rates trends. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: Over a 25-year period, there were 42,615 deaths related to aortic aneurysm and dissection, of which 36,088 (84.7%) were identified as underlying cause and 6,527 (15.3%) as an associated cause-of-death. Dissection and ruptured aneurysms were considered as an underlying cause of death in 93% of the deaths. For the entire period, a significant increased trend of age-standardized death rates was observed in men and women, while certain non-significant decreases occurred from 1996/2004 until 2009. Abdominal aortic aneurysms and aortic dissections prevailed among men and aortic dissections and aortic aneurysms of unspecified site among women. In 1985 and 2009 death rates ratios of men to women were respectively 2.86 and 2.19, corresponding to a difference decrease between rates of 23.4%. For aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms, the overall mean ages at death were, respectively, 63.2, 68.4 and 71.6 years; while, as the underlying cause, the main associated causes of death were as follows: hemorrhages (in 43.8%/40.5%/13.9%); hypertensive diseases (in 49.2%/22.43%/24.5%) and atherosclerosis (in 14.8%/25.5%/15.3%); and, as associated causes, their principal overall underlying causes of death were diseases of the circulatory (55.7%), and respiratory (13.8%) systems and neoplasms (7.8%). A significant seasonal variation, with highest frequency in winter, occurred in deaths identified as underlying cause for aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms. Conclusions: This study introduces the methodology of multiple-causes-of-death to enhance epidemiologic knowledge of aortic aneurysm and dissection in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The results presented confer light to the importance of mortality statistics and the need for epidemiologic studies to understand unique trends in our own population.
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The realization that statistical physics methods can be applied to analyze written texts represented as complex networks has led to several developments in natural language processing, including automatic summarization and evaluation of machine translation. Most importantly, so far only a few metrics of complex networks have been used and therefore there is ample opportunity to enhance the statistics-based methods as new measures of network topology and dynamics are created. In this paper, we employ for the first time the metrics betweenness, vulnerability and diversity to analyze written texts in Brazilian Portuguese. Using strategies based on diversity metrics, a better performance in automatic summarization is achieved in comparison to previous work employing complex networks. With an optimized method the Rouge score (an automatic evaluation method used in summarization) was 0.5089, which is the best value ever achieved for an extractive summarizer with statistical methods based on complex networks for Brazilian Portuguese. Furthermore, the diversity metric can detect keywords with high precision, which is why we believe it is suitable to produce good summaries. It is also shown that incorporating linguistic knowledge through a syntactic parser does enhance the performance of the automatic summarizers, as expected, but the increase in the Rouge score is only minor. These results reinforce the suitability of complex network methods for improving automatic summarizers in particular, and treating text in general. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Aims. We studied four young star clusters to characterise their anomalous extinction or variable reddening and asses whether they could be due to contamination by either dense clouds or circumstellar effects. Methods. We evaluated the extinction law (R-V) by adopting two methods: (i) the use of theoretical expressions based on the colour-excess of stars with known spectral type; and (ii) the analysis of two-colour diagrams, where the slope of the observed colour distribution was compared to the normal distribution. An algorithm to reproduce the zero-age main-sequence (ZAMS) reddened colours was developed to derive the average visual extinction (A(V)) that provides the closest fit to the observational data. The structure of the clouds was evaluated by means of a statistical fractal analysis, designed to compare their geometric structure with the spatial distribution of the cluster members. Results. The cluster NGC 6530 is the only object of our sample affected by anomalous extinction. On average, the other clusters suffer normal extinction, but several of their members, mainly in NGC 2264, seem to have high R-V, probably because of circumstellar effects. The ZAMS fitting provides A(V) values that are in good agreement with those found in the literature. The fractal analysis shows that NGC 6530 has a centrally concentrated distribution of stars that differs from the substructures found in the density distribution of the cloud projected in the A(V) map, suggesting that the original cloud was changed by the cluster formation. However, the fractal dimension and statistical parameters of Berkeley 86, NGC 2244, and NGC 2264 indicate that there is a good cloud-cluster correlation, when compared to other works based on an artificial distribution of points.
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Chaabene, H, Hachana, Y, Franchini, E, Mkaouer, B, Montassar, M, and Chamari, K. Reliability and construct validity of the karate-specific aerobic test. J Strength Cond Res 26(12): 3454-3460, 2012-The aim of this study was to examine absolute and relative reliabilities and external responsiveness of the Karate-specific aerobic test (KSAT). This study comprised 43 male karatekas, 19 of them participated in the first study to establish test-retest reliability and 40, selected on the bases of their karate experience and level of practice, participated in the second study to identify external responsiveness of the KSAT. The latter group was divided into 2 categories: national-level group (G(n)) and regional-level group (Gr). Analysis showed excellent test-retest reliability of time to exhaustion (TE), with intraclass correlation coefficient ICC(3,1) >0.90, standard error of measurement (SEM) <5%: (3.2%) and mean difference (bias) +/- the 95% limits of agreement: -9.5 +/- 78.8 seconds. There was a significant difference between test-retest session in peak lactate concentration (Peak [La]) (9.12 +/- 2.59 vs. 8.05 +/- 2.67 mmol.L-1; p < 0.05) but not in peak heart rate (HRpeak) and rating of perceived exertion (RPE) (196 +/- 9 vs. 194 +/- 9 b.min(-1) and 7.6 +/- 0.93 vs. 7.8 +/- 1.15; p > 0.05), respectively. National-level karate athletes (1,032 +/- 101 seconds) were better than regional level (841 +/- 134 seconds) on TE performance during KSAT (p < 0.001). Thus, KSAT provided good external responsiveness. The area under the receiver operator characteristics curve was >0.70 (0.86; confidence interval 95%: 0.72-0.95). Significant difference was detected in Peak [La] between national- (6.09 +/- 1.78 mmol.L-1) and regional-level (8.48 +/- 2.63 mmol.L-1) groups, but not in HRpeak (194 +/- 8 vs. 195 +/- 8 b.min(-1)) and RPE (7.57 +/- 1.15 vs. 7.42 +/- 1.1), respectively. The result of this study indicates that KSAT provides excellent absolute and relative reliabilities. The KSAT can effectively distinguish karate athletes of different competitive levels. Thus, the KSAT may be suitable for field assessment of aerobic fitness of karate practitioners.
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Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is an interest in studying latent variables (or latent traits). Usually such latent traits are assumed to be random variables and a convenient distribution is assigned to them. A very common choice for such a distribution has been the standard normal. Recently, Azevedo et al. [Bayesian inference for a skew-normal IRT model under the centred parameterization, Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 55 (2011), pp. 353-365] proposed a skew-normal distribution under the centred parameterization (SNCP) as had been studied in [R. B. Arellano-Valle and A. Azzalini, The centred parametrization for the multivariate skew-normal distribution, J. Multivariate Anal. 99(7) (2008), pp. 1362-1382], to model the latent trait distribution. This approach allows one to represent any asymmetric behaviour concerning the latent trait distribution. Also, they developed a Metropolis-Hastings within the Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm based on the density of the SNCP. They showed that the algorithm recovers all parameters properly. Their results indicated that, in the presence of asymmetry, the proposed model and the estimation algorithm perform better than the usual model and estimation methods. Our main goal in this paper is to propose another type of MHWGS algorithm based on a stochastic representation (hierarchical structure) of the SNCP studied in [N. Henze, A probabilistic representation of the skew-normal distribution, Scand. J. Statist. 13 (1986), pp. 271-275]. Our algorithm has only one Metropolis-Hastings step, in opposition to the algorithm developed by Azevedo et al., which has two such steps. This not only makes the implementation easier but also reduces the number of proposal densities to be used, which can be a problem in the implementation of MHWGS algorithms, as can be seen in [R.J. Patz and B.W. Junker, A straightforward approach to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for item response models, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(2) (1999), pp. 146-178; R. J. Patz and B. W. Junker, The applications and extensions of MCMC in IRT: Multiple item types, missing data, and rated responses, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(4) (1999), pp. 342-366; A. Gelman, G.O. Roberts, and W.R. Gilks, Efficient Metropolis jumping rules, Bayesian Stat. 5 (1996), pp. 599-607]. Moreover, we consider a modified beta prior (which generalizes the one considered in [3]) and a Jeffreys prior for the asymmetry parameter. Furthermore, we study the sensitivity of such priors as well as the use of different kernel densities for this parameter. Finally, we assess the impact of the number of examinees, number of items and the asymmetry level on the parameter recovery. Results of the simulation study indicated that our approach performed equally as well as that in [3], in terms of parameter recovery, mainly using the Jeffreys prior. Also, they indicated that the asymmetry level has the highest impact on parameter recovery, even though it is relatively small. A real data analysis is considered jointly with the development of model fitting assessment tools. The results are compared with the ones obtained by Azevedo et al. The results indicate that using the hierarchical approach allows us to implement MCMC algorithms more easily, it facilitates diagnosis of the convergence and also it can be very useful to fit more complex skew IRT models.
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OBJECTIVE: During the neonatal and infancy periods, some chronic liver diseases may lead to progressive hepatic fibrosis, which is a condition that can ultimately result in the loss of organ function and severe portal hypertension necessitating hepatic transplantation. In a previous report, pharmacological interventions were demonstrated to modulate hepatic fibrosis induced by bile duct ligation in young rats. The administration of pentoxifylline or prednisolone, or the combination of both, resulted in reduced fibrogenesis in portal spaces. The objectives of the present study were to evaluate the expression of transforming growth factor beta and vascular endothelial growth factor after bile duct ligation in young rats and to assess the effect of those same drugs on cytokine expression. METHODS: In this experimental study, 80 young rats (21 or 22 days old) were submitted either to laparotomy and common bile duct ligation or to sham surgery. The animals were allocated into four groups according to surgical procedure, and the following treatments were administered: (1) common bile duct ligation + distilled water, (2) sham surgery + distilled water, (3) common bile duct ligation + pentoxifylline, or (4) common bile duct ligation + prednisolone. After 30 days, a hepatic fragment was collected from each animal for immunohistochemical analysis using monoclonal antibodies against transforming growth factor beta and vascular endothelial growth factor. Digital morphometric and statistical analyses were performed. RESULTS: The administration of pentoxifylline reduced the transforming growth factor beta-marked area and the amount of transforming growth factor beta expressed in liver tissue. This effect was not observed after the administration of prednisolone. There was a significant reduction in vascular endothelial growth factor expression after the administration of either drug compared with the non-treatment group. CONCLUSIONS: The administration of pentoxifylline to cholestatic young rats resulted in the diminished expression of transforming growth factor beta and vascular endothelial growth factor in liver tissue. The administration of steroids resulted in the diminished expression of vascular endothelial growth factor only. These pathways may be involved in hepatic fibrogenesis in young rats submitted to bile duct ligation and exposed to pentoxifylline or prednisolone.
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Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a controversial risk factor for dementia. Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the association between AF and dementia in the "Sao Paulo Ageing & Health" (SPAH) study participants. Methods: SPAH is a cross-sectional, population-based study of elderly people living in a deprived neighborhood in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Dementia diagnosis was performed according to the 10/66 study group protocol based on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV) criteria. Diagnosis of AF was made using a 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) recording, which was assessed by two cardiologists. Data on demographics and cardiovascular risk factors were also obtained. Results: Dementia was diagnosed in 66 (4.3%) and AF in 36 (2.4%) of 1,524 participants with a valid ECG. The crude odds ratio (OR) for dementia in participants with AF was 2.8 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.0-8.1; p=0.06) compared with individuals without AF. When analyzing data according to sex, a positive relationship was found in women (OR 4.2; 95% CI: 1.24-15.1; p=0.03). After age-adjustment, however, this association was no longer significant (OR 2.2; 95% CI: 0.6-8.9; p=0.26). Conclusion: There was no independent association between AF and dementia in this sample. The prevalence of AF may be low in this population owing to premature cardiovascular death. (Arq Bras Cardiol 2012;99(6):1108-1114)
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This paper presents simple, rapid, precise and accurate stability-indicating HPLC and CE methods, which were developed and validated for the determination of nitrendipine, nimodipine and nisoldipine. These drugs are calcium channel antagonists of the 1,4-dihydropyridine type which are used in the treatment of cardiovascular diseases. Experimental results showed a good linear correlation between the area and the concentration of drugs covering a relatively large domain of concentration in all cases. The linearity of the analytical procedures was in the range of 2.0-120.0 mu g mL-1 for nitrendipine, 1.0-100.0 mu g mL(-1) for nimodipine and 100.0-600.0 mu g mL(-1) for nisoldipine, the regression determination coefficient being higher than 0.99 in all cases. The proposed methods were found to have good precision and accuracy. The chemical stability of these drugs was determined under various conditions and the methods have shown adequate separation for their enantiomers and degradation products. In addition, degradation products produced as a result of stress studies did not interfere with the detection of the drugs' enantiomers and the assays can thus be considered stability-indicating.