A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity

This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are estimated to be currently living within watersheds exposed to water scarcity. Using the WCI, by 2050 under the A1B scenario, 0.5 to 3.1 billion people are exposed to an increase in water scarcity due to climate change (range across 21 GCMs). This represents a higher upper-estimate than previous assessments because scenarios are constructed from a wider range of GCMs. A substantial proportion of the uncertainty in the global-scale effect of climate change on water scarcity is due to uncertainty in the estimates for South Asia and East Asia. Sensitivity to the WCI and WSI thresholds that define water scarcity can be comparable to the sensitivity to climate change pattern. More of the world will see an increase in exposure to water scarcity than a decrease due to climate change but this is not consistent across all climate change patterns. Additionally, investigation of the effects of a set of prescribed global mean temperature change scenarios show rapid increases in water scarcity due to climate change across many regions of the globe, up to 2°C, followed by stabilisation to 4°C.

Aerosol absorption over the clear-sky oceans deduced from POLDER-1 and AERONET observations

We estimate aerosol absorption over the clear-sky oceans using aerosol geophysical products from POLDER-1 space measurements and absorption properties from ground-based AERONET measurements. Our best estimate is 2.5 Wm-2 averaged over the 8-month lifetime of POLDER-1. Low and high absorption estimates are 2.2 and 3.1 Wm-2 based on the variability in aerosol single scattering albedo observed by AERONET. Main sources of uncertainties are the discrimation of the aerosol type from satellite measurements, and potential clear-sky bias induced by the cloud-screening procedure.

Multiproduct activity and competition policy: The Tetra Pak case

We propose the Tetra Pak case as a real-world example to study the implications of multiproduct activity for European Competition Policy. Tetra Pak, a monopolist in aseptic carton packaging of liquid food, competes with Elopak in the nonaseptic sector. The EC Commission used the effect of Tetra Pak's dominance in the aseptic sector on its rival's performance as an evidence of the former's anticompetitive behavior. With linear demand and cost functions and interdependent demands, the Commission's position can be supported. However, a more general model suggests that the Commission's conclusions cannot be supported as the unique outcome of the analysis of the information available.

Adapting wheat in Europe for climate change

Increasing cereal yield is needed to meet the projected increased demand for world food supply of about 70% by 2050. Sirius, a process-based model for wheat, was used to estimate yield potential for wheat ideotypes optimized for future climatic projections (HadCM3 global climate model) for ten wheat growing areas of Europe. It was predicted that the detrimental effect of drought stress on yield would be decreased due to enhanced tailoring of phenology to future weather patterns, and due to genetic improvements in the response of photosynthesis and green leaf duration to water shortage. Yield advances could be made through extending maturation and thereby improve resource capture and partitioning. However the model predicted an increase in frequency of heat stress at meiosis and anthesis. Controlled environment experiments quantify the effects of heat and drought at booting and flowering on grain numbers and potential grain size. A current adaptation of wheat to areas of Europe with hotter and drier summers is a quicker maturation which helps to escape from excessive stress, but results in lower yields. To increase yield potential and to respond to climate change, increased tolerance to heat and drought stress should remain priorities for the genetic improvement of wheat.

Forecasting exchange rate volatility using conditional variance models selected by information criteria

This paper uses appropriately modified information criteria to select models from the GARCH family, which are subsequently used for predicting US dollar exchange rate return volatility. The out of sample forecast accuracy of models chosen in this manner compares favourably on mean absolute error grounds, although less favourably on mean squared error grounds, with those generated by the commonly used GARCH(1, 1) model. An examination of the orders of models selected by the criteria reveals that (1, 1) models are typically selected less than 20% of the time.

Aerosol retrieval experiments in the ESA Aerosol_cci project

Within the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) project Aerosol_cci (2010–2013), algorithms for the production of long-term total column aerosol optical depth (AOD) datasets from European Earth Observation sensors are developed. Starting with eight existing pre-cursor algorithms three analysis steps are conducted to improve and qualify the algorithms: (1) a series of experiments applied to one month of global data to understand several major sensitivities to assumptions needed due to the ill-posed nature of the underlying inversion problem, (2) a round robin exercise of "best" versions of each of these algorithms (defined using the step 1 outcome) applied to four months of global data to identify mature algorithms, and (3) a comprehensive validation exercise applied to one complete year of global data produced by the algorithms selected as mature based on the round robin exercise. The algorithms tested included four using AATSR, three using MERIS and one using PARASOL. This paper summarizes the first step. Three experiments were conducted to assess the potential impact of major assumptions in the various aerosol retrieval algorithms. In the first experiment a common set of four aerosol components was used to provide all algorithms with the same assumptions. The second experiment introduced an aerosol property climatology, derived from a combination of model and sun photometer observations, as a priori information in the retrievals on the occurrence of the common aerosol components. The third experiment assessed the impact of using a common nadir cloud mask for AATSR and MERIS algorithms in order to characterize the sensitivity to remaining cloud contamination in the retrievals against the baseline dataset versions. The impact of the algorithm changes was assessed for one month (September 2008) of data: qualitatively by inspection of monthly mean AOD maps and quantitatively by comparing daily gridded satellite data against daily averaged AERONET sun photometer observations for the different versions of each algorithm globally (land and coastal) and for three regions with different aerosol regimes. The analysis allowed for an assessment of sensitivities of all algorithms, which helped define the best algorithm versions for the subsequent round robin exercise; all algorithms (except for MERIS) showed some, in parts significant, improvement. In particular, using common aerosol components and partly also a priori aerosol-type climatology is beneficial. On the other hand the use of an AATSR-based common cloud mask meant a clear improvement (though with significant reduction of coverage) for the MERIS standard product, but not for the algorithms using AATSR. It is noted that all these observations are mostly consistent for all five analyses (global land, global coastal, three regional), which can be understood well, since the set of aerosol components defined in Sect. 3.1 was explicitly designed to cover different global aerosol regimes (with low and high absorption fine mode, sea salt and dust).

Modeling the photo-oxidation of dissolved organic matter by ultraviolet radiation in freshwater lakes: implications for mercury bioavailability

Uncertainties in projected ultraviolet (UV) radiation may lead to future increases in UV irradiation of freshwater lakes. Because dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is the main binding phase for mercury (Hg) in freshwater lakes, an increase in DOC photo-oxidation may affect Hg speciation and bioavailability. We quantified the effect of DOC concentration on the rate of abiotic DOC photo-oxidation for five lakes (DOC = 3.27–12.3 mg L−1) in Kejimkujik National Park, Canada. Samples were irradiated with UV-A or UV-B radiation over a 72-h period. UV-B radiation was found to be 2.36 times more efficient at photo-oxidizing DOC than UV-A, with energy-normalized rates of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) production ranging from 3.8 × 10−5 to 1.1 × 10−4 mg L−1 J−1 for UV-A, and from 6.0 × 10−5 to 3.1 × 10−4 mg L−1 J−1 for UV-B. Energy normalized rates of DIC production were positively correlated with DOC concentrations. Diffuse integrated attenuation coefficients were quantified in situ (UV-A Kd = 0.056–0.180 J cm−1; UV-B Kd = 0.015–0.165 J cm−1) and a quantitative depth-integrated model for yearly DIC photo-production in each lake was developed. The model predicts that, UV-A produces between 3.2 and 100 times more DIC (1521–2851 mg m−2 year−1) than UV-B radiation (29.17–746.7 mg m−2 year−1). Future increases in UV radiation may increase DIC production and increase Hg bioavailability in low DOC lakes to a greater extent than in high DOC lakes.

Efficient incorporation of channel cross-section geometry uncertainty into regional and global scale flood inundation models

This paper investigates the challenge of representing structural differences in river channel cross-section geometry for regional to global scale river hydraulic models and the effect this can have on simulations of wave dynamics. Classically, channel geometry is defined using data, yet at larger scales the necessary information and model structures do not exist to take this approach. We therefore propose a fundamentally different approach where the structural uncertainty in channel geometry is represented using a simple parameterization, which could then be estimated through calibration or data assimilation. This paper first outlines the development of a computationally efficient numerical scheme to represent generalised channel shapes using a single parameter, which is then validated using a simple straight channel test case and shown to predict wetted perimeter to within 2% for the channels tested. An application to the River Severn, UK is also presented, along with an analysis of model sensitivity to channel shape, depth and friction. The channel shape parameter was shown to improve model simulations of river level, particularly for more physically plausible channel roughness and depth parameter ranges. Calibrating channel Manning’s coefficient in a rectangular channel provided similar water level simulation accuracy in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency to a model where friction and shape or depth were calibrated. However, the calibrated Manning coefficient in the rectangular channel model was ~2/3 greater than the likely physically realistic value for this reach and this erroneously slowed wave propagation times through the reach by several hours. Therefore, for large scale models applied in data sparse areas, calibrating channel depth and/or shape may be preferable to assuming a rectangular geometry and calibrating friction alone.

Global transcriptome analysis and identification of differentially expressed genes after infection of Fragaria vesca with powdery mildew (Podosphaera aphanis)

Background: Podosphaera aphanis, the causal agent of strawberry powdery mildew causes significant economic loss worldwide. Methods: We used the diploid strawberry species Fragaria vesca as a model to study plant pathogen interactions. RNA-seq was employed to generate a transcriptome dataset from two accessions, F. vesca ssp. vesca Hawaii 4 (HW) and F. vesca f. semperflorens Yellow Wonder 5AF7 (YW) at 1 d (1 DAI) and 8 d (8 DAI) after infection. Results: Of the total reads identified about 999 million (92%) mapped to the F. vesca genome. These transcripts were derived from a total of 23,470 and 23,464 genes in HW and YW, respectively from the three time points (control, 1 and 8 DAI). Analysis identified 1,567, 1,846 and 1,145 up-regulated genes between control and 1 DAI, control and 8 DAI, and 1 and 8 DAI, respectively in HW. Similarly, 1,336, 1,619 and 968 genes were up-regulated in YW. Also 646, 1,098 and 624 down-regulated genes were identified in HW, while 571, 754 and 627 genes were down-regulated in YW between all three time points, respectively. Conclusion: Investigation of differentially expressed genes (log2 fold changes �5) between control and 1 DAI in both HW and YW identified a large number of genes related to secondary metabolism, signal transduction; transcriptional regulation and disease resistance were highly expressed. These included flavonoid 3´-monooxygenase, peroxidase 15, glucan endo-1,3-β-glucosidase 2, receptor-like kinases, transcription factors, germin-like proteins, F-box proteins, NB-ARC and NBS-LRR proteins. This is the first application of RNA-seq to any pathogen interaction in strawberry

Controlling ivy attachment to wall surfaces by applying paints, metal meshes and sheets

Growing ivy around buildings has benefits. However, ivy potentially damages buildings which limit its use. Options for preventing ivy attachment were investigated to provide ivy management alternatives. Indoor and outdoor experiments were conducted, where metals (Cu, Zn) and anti-graffiti paints were applied to model wall panels. Metal treatments, in both indoor and outdoor experiments, fully prevented ivy attachment. For Hedera helix, silane-based anti-graffiti paint prevented attachment in the laboratory and required under half the peak detachment force necessary to detach the control in the outdoor experiment. In conclusion, metals and silane-based paint are management possibilities for ivy attachment around buildings.

Taxonomic and Phylogenetic Relationships Between Species of the Genus Culex (Diptera: Culicidae) From Brazil Inferred From the Cytochrome c Oxidase I Mitochondrial Gene

Species of the genus Culex Linnaeus have been incriminated as the main vectors of lymphatic filariases and are important vectors of arboviruses, including West Nile virus. Sequences corresponding to a fragment of 478 bp of the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene, which includes part of the barcode region, of 37 individuals of 17 species of genus Culex were generated to establish relationships among five subgenera, Culex, Phenacomyia, Melanoconion, Microculex, and Carrollia, and one species of the genus Lutzia that occurs in Brazil. Bayesian methods were employed for the phylogenetic analyses. Results of sequence comparisons showed that individuals identified as Culex dolosus, Culex mollis, and Culex imitator possess high intraspecific divergence (3.1, 2.3, and 3.5%, respectively) when using the Kimura two parameters model. These differences were associated either with distinct morphological characteristics of the male genitalia or larval and pupal stages, suggesting that these may represent species complexes. The Bayesian topology suggested that the genus and subgenus Culex are paraphyletic relative to Lutzia and Phenacomyia, respectively. The cytochrome c oxidase subunit I sequences may be a useful tool to both estimate phylogenetic relationships and identify morphologically similar species of the genus Culex.

Cardiovascular and autonomic phenotype of db/db diabetic mice

The db/db mice serve as a good model for type 2 diabetes characterized by hyperinsulinaemia and progressive hyperglycaemia. There are limited and conflicting data on the cardiovascular changes in this model. The aim of the present study was to characterize the cardiovascular and autonomic phenotype of male db/db mice and evaluate the role of angiotensin II AT(1) receptors. Radiotelemetry was used to monitor 24 h blood pressure (BP) in mice for 8 weeks. Parameters measured were mean arterial pressure (MAP), heart rate (HR) and their variabilities. In 8-week-old db/db mice, the MAP and BP circadian rhythms were not different from age-matched control mice, while HR and locomotor activity were decreased. With ageing, MAP gradually increased in db/db mice, and the 12 h light values did not dip significantly from the 12 h dark periods. In 14-week-old mice, MAP was increased during light (101 +/- 1 versus 117 +/- 2 mmHg, P < 0.01; control versus db/db mice) and dark phases (110 +/- 1.7 versus 121 +/- 3.1 mmHg, P < 0.01; control versus db/db mice). This increase in MAP was associated with a significant increase in plasma angiotensin-converting enzyme activity and angiotensin II levels. Chronic treatment with losartan (10 mg kg(-1) day(-1)) blocked the increase in MAP in db/db mice, with no effect in control animals. Spectral analysis was used to monitor autonomic cardiovascular function. The circadian rhythm observed in systolic arterial pressure variance and its low-frequency component in control mice was absent in db/db mice. There were no changes in HR variability and spontaneous baroreflex sensitivity between control and db/db mice. The results document an age-related increase in MAP in db/db mice, which can be reduced by antagonism of angiotensin II AT(1) receptors, and alterations in autonomic balance and components of the renin-angiotensin system.

Effect of low-level laser therapy (GaAs 904 nm) in skeletal muscle fatigue and biochemical markers of muscle damage in rats

We wanted to test if pre-exercise muscle irradiation with 904 nm laser affects the development of fatigue, blood lactate levels and creatine kinase (CK) activity in a rat model with tetanic contractions. Thirty male Wistar rats were divided into five groups receiving either one of four different laser doses (0.1, 0.3, 1.0 and 3.0 J) or a no-treatment control group. Laser irradiation was performed immediately before the first contraction for treated groups. Electrical stimulation was used to induce six tetanic tibial anterior muscle contractions with 10 min intervals between them. Contractions were stopped when the muscle force fell to 50% of the peak value for each contraction; blood samples were taken before the first and immediately after the sixth contraction. The relative peak forces for the sixth contraction were significantly better (P < 0.05) in the two laser groups irradiated with highest doses [151.27% (SD +/- A 18.82) for 1.0 J, 144.84% (SD +/- A 34.47) for 3.0 J and 82.25% (SD +/- A 11.69) for the control group]. Similar significant (P < 0.05) increases in mean performed work during the sixth contraction for the 1.0 and 3.0 J groups were also observed. Blood lactate levels were significantly lower (P < 0.05) than the control group in all irradiated groups. All irradiated groups except the 3.0 J group had significantly lower post-exercise CK activity than the control group. We conclude that pre-exercise irradiation with a laser dose of 1.0 J and 904 nm wavelength significantly delays muscle fatigue and decreases post-exercise blood lactate and CK in this rat model.

Low-level Laser Therapy Improves Skeletal Muscle Performance, Decreases Skeletal Muscle Damage and Modulates mRNA Expression of COX-1 and COX-2 in a Dose-dependent Manner

We tested if modulation in mRNA expression of cyclooxygenase isoforms (COX-1 and COX-2) can be related to protective effects of phototherapy in skeletal muscle. Thirty male Wistar rats were divided into five groups receiving either one of four laser doses (0.1, 0.3, 1.0 and 3.0 J) or a no-treatment control group. Laser irradiation (904 nm, 15 mW average power) was performed immediately before the first contraction for treated groups. Electrical stimulation was used to induce six tetanic tibial anterior muscle contractions. Immediately after sixth contraction, blood samples were collected to evaluate creatine kinase activity and muscles were dissected and frozen in liquid nitrogen to evaluate mRNA expression of COX-1 and COX-2. The 1.0 and 3.0 J groups showed significant enhancement (P < 0.01) in total work performed in six tetanic contractions compared with control group. All laser groups, except the 3.0 J group, presented significantly lower post-exercise CK activity than control group. Additionally, 1.0 J group showed increased COX-1 and decreased COX-2 mRNA expression compared with control group and 0.1, 0.3 and 3.0 J laser groups (P < 0.01). We conclude that pre-exercise infrared laser irradiation with dose of 1.0 J enhances skeletal muscle performance and decreases post-exercise skeletal muscle damage and inflammation.

EPR of gamma-induced paramagnetic centers in tellurite glasses

Intrinsic paramagnetic responses were observed in the 60TeO(2)-25ZnO-15Na(2)O and 85TeO(2)-15Na(2)O mol% glasses, after gamma-irradiation at room temperature: (1) a shoulder at g(1) = g(parallel to) = 2.02 +/- 0.01 and an estimated g(perpendicular to)similar to 2.0 attributed to tellurium-oxygen hole center (TeOHC); (2) a narrow resonance at g(2)= 1.9960 +/- 0.0005 related to the modifiers and (3) a resolved resonance at g(3) = 1.9700 +/- 0.0005 ascribed to a tellurium electron center (TeEC) of an electron trapped at an oxygen vacancy (V(o)(+)) in a tellurium oxide structural center. It is suggested that the creation of (NBO(-),V(o)(+)) pair follows a mechanism where the modifier oxide molecule actuates as a catalyser. An additional model for the NBO radiolysis produced by the gamma-irradiation is proposed on the basis of the evolution of the g(1), g(2) and g(3) intensities with increasing dose (kGy). Crown Copyright (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.