Modelling attribute non-attendance in choice experiments for rural landscape valuation

Non-market effects of agriculture are often estimated using discrete choice models from stated preference surveys. In this context we propose two ways of modelling attribute non-attendance. The first involves constraining coefficients to zero in a latent class framework, whereas the second is based on stochastic attribute selection and grounded in Bayesian estimation. Their implications are explored in the context of a stated preference survey designed to value landscapes in Ireland. Taking account of attribute non-attendance with these data improves fit and tends to involve two attributes one of which is likely to be cost, thereby leading to substantive changes in derived welfare estimates.

Lacustrine evidence of Holocene environmental change from three Faroese lakes: a multiproxy XRF and stable isotope study

The vegetation history of the Faroe Islands has been investigated in numerous studies all broadly showing that the early-Holocene vegetation of the islands largely consisted of fellfield with gravely and rocky soils formed under a continental climate which shifted to an oceanic climate around 10,000 cal yr BP when grasses, sedges and finally shrubs began to dominant the islands. Here we present data from three lake sediment cores and show a much more detailed history from geochemical and isotope data. These data show that the Faroe Islands were deglaciated by the end of Younger Dryas (11,700 10,300 cal yr BP), at this time relatively high sedimentation rates with high delta C-13 imply poor soil development. delta C-13, Ti and chi data reveal a much more stable and warm mid-Holocene until 7410 cal yr BP characterised by increasing vegetation cover and build up of organic soils towards the Holocene thermal maximum around 7400 cal yr BP. The final meltdown of the Laurentide ice sheet around 7000 cal yr BP appears to have impacted both ocean and atmospheric circulation towards colder conditions on the Faroe Islands. This is inferred by enhanced weathering and increased deposition of surplus sulphur (sea spray) and erosion in the highland lakes from about 7400 cal yr BP. From 4190 cal yr BP further cooling is believed to have occurred as a consequence for increased soil erosion due to freeze/thaw sequences related to oceanic and atmospheric variability. This cooling trend appears to have advanced further from 3000 cal yr BR A short period around 1800 cal yr BP appears as a short warm and wet phase in between a general cooling characterised by significant soil erosion lasting until 725 cal yr BP. Interestingly, increased soil erosion seems to have begun at 1360 cal yr BP, thus significantly before the arrival of the first settlers on the Faroe Island around 1150 cal yr BP, although additional erosion took place around 1200 cal yr BP possibly as a consequence of human activities. Hence it appears that if humans caused a change in the Faroe landscape in terms of erosion they in fact accelerated a process that had already started. Soil erosion was a dominant landscape factor during the Little Ice Age, but climate related triggers can hardly be distinguished from human activities. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applying species distribution modelling to identify areas of high conservation value for endangered species: A case study using Margaritifera margaritifera (L.)

The development and implementation of a population supplementation and restoration plan for any endangered species should involve an understanding of the species’ habitat requirements prior to the release of any captive bred individuals. The freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera, has undergone dramatic declines over the last century and is now globally endangered. In Northern Ireland, the release of captive bred individuals is being used to support wild populations and repatriate the species in areas where it once existed. We employed a combination of maximum entropy modelling (MAXENT) and Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) to identify ecological parameters necessary to support wild populations using GIS-based landscape scale and ground-truthed habitat scale environmental parameters. The GIS-based landscape scale model suggested that mussel occurrence was associated with altitude and soil characteristics including the carbon, clay, sand, and silt content. Notably, mussels were associated with a relatively narrow band of variance indicating that M. margaritifera has a highly specific landscape niche. The ground-truthed habitat scale model suggested that mussel occurrence was associated with stable consolidated substrates, the extent of bankside trees, presence of indicative macrophyte species and fast flowing water. We propose a three phase conservation strategy for M. margaritifera identifying suitable areas within rivers that (i) have a high conservation value yet needing habitat restoration at a local level, (ii) sites for population supplementation of existing populations and (iii) sites for species reintroduction to rivers where the mussel historically occurred but is now locally extinct. A combined analytical approach including GIS-based landscape scale and ground-truthed habitat scale models provides a robust method by which suitable release sites can be identified for the population supplementation and restoration of an endangered species. Our results will be highly influential in the future management of M. margaritifera in Northern Ireland.

The response of small mammals to natural and human-altered edges associated with Afromontane forests of South Africa

An increase in edge area reduces the effective size of habitat fragments and thus the area available for habitat-interior specialists. However, it is unclear how edge effects compare at different ecotones in the same system. We investigated the response of a small mammal community associated with Afromontane forests to edge effects at three different habitat transitions: natural forest to grassland (natural edge, structurally different vegetation types), natural forest to mature plantation (human-altered edge, structurally similar vegetation types) and natural forest to harvested plantation (human-altered edge, structurally different vegetation types). We predicted that edge effects should be less severe at natural ecotones and at similarly structured contiguous vegetation types than human-altered ecotones and differently structured contiguous vegetation types, respectively. We found that forest species seemed to avoid all habitat edges in our study area. Surprisingly, natural edges supported a less diverse small mammal community than human-altered forest edges. However, edge effects were observed deeper into native forests surrounded by mature alien plantations (and more so at harvested plantations) than into native forests surrounded by native grasslands. The net effect of mature plantations was therefore to reduce the functional size of the natural forest by creating a larger edge. We suggest that when plantations are established a buffer zone of natural vegetation be left between natural forests and newly established plantations to mitigate the negative effects of plantation forestry.

Lake restoration in terms of ecological resilience: a numerical study of biomanipulations under bistable conditions

An abstract version of the comprehensive aquatic simulation model (CASM) is found to exhibit bistability under intermediate loading of nutrient input, supporting the alternative-stable-states theory and field observations for shallow lakes. Our simulations of biomanipulations under the bistable conditions reveal that a reduction in the abundance of zooplanktivorous fish cannot switch the system from a turbid to a clear state. Rather, a direct reduction of phytoplankton and detritus was found to be most effective to make this switch in the present model. These results imply that multiple manipulations may be effective for practical restorations of lakes. We discuss the present results of biomanipulations in terms of ecological resilience in multivariable systems or natural systems.

China and the changing landscape of the world economy

The rapid development of emerging markets is changing the landscape of the world economy and may have profound implications for international relations. China is often regarded as the most influential emerging market economy because, during the last three decades, it has become increasingly integrated into the world economic system and its success and failure now affect the well-being of other nations in the world. As the financial crisis in the US and EU intensifies, the economic prosperity of the world depends to a large extent on the sustained development of the Chinese economy and other emerging markets, and vice versa.

Genetic differentiation across the social transition in a socially polymorphic sweat bee, Halictus rubicundus

Eusociality is widely considered a major evolutionary transition. The socially polymorphic sweat bee Halictus rubicundus, solitary in cooler regions of its holarctic range and eusocial in warmer parts, is an excellent model organism to address this transition, and specifically the question of whether sociality is associated with a strong barrier to gene flow between phenotypically divergent populations. Mitochondrial DNA (COI) from specimens collected across the British Isles, where both solitary and social phenotypes are represented, displayed limited variation, but placed all specimens in the same European lineage; haplotype network analysis failed to differentiate solitary and social lineages. Microsatellite genetic variability was high and enabled us to quantify genetic differentiation among populations and social phenotypes across Great Britain and Ireland. Results from conceptually different analyses consistently showed greater genetic differentiation between geographically distant populations, independently of their social phenotype, suggesting that the two social forms are not reproductively isolated. A landscape genetic approach revealed significant isolation by distance (Mantel test r = 0.622, p

How community ecology links natural mortality, growth, and production of fish populations

Size-spectrum theory is used to show that (i) predation mortality is a decreasing function of individual size and proportional to the consumption rate of predators; (ii) adult natural mortality M is proportional to the von Bertalanffy growth constant K; and (iii) productivity rate P/B is proportional to the asymptotic weight W8 -1/3. The constants of proportionality are specified using individual level parameters related to physiology or prey encounter. The derivations demonstrate how traditional fisheries theory can be connected to community ecology. Implications for the use of models for ecosystem-based fisheries management are discussed.

The biology and ecology of the ocean sunfish Mola mola: a review of current knowledge and future research perspectives

Relatively little is known about the biology and ecology of the world's largest (heaviest) bony fish, the ocean sunfish Mola mola, despite its worldwide occurrence in temperate and tropical seas. Studies are now emerging that require many common perceptions about sunfish behaviour and ecology to be re-examined. Indeed, the long-held view that ocean sunfish are an inactive, passively drifting species seems to be entirely misplaced. Technological advances in marine telemetry are revealing distinct behavioural patterns and protracted seasonal movements. Extensive forays by ocean sunfish into the deep ocean have been documented and broad-scale surveys, together with molecular and laboratory based techniques, are addressing the connectivity and trophic role of these animals. These emerging molecular and movement studies suggest that local distinct populations may be prone to depletion through bycatch in commercial fisheries. Rising interest in ocean sunfish, highlighted by the increase in recent publications, warrants a thorough review of the biology and ecology of this species. Here we review the taxonomy, morphology, geography, diet, locomotion, vision, movements, foraging ecology, reproduction and species interactions of M. mola. We present a summary of current conservation issues and suggest methods for addressing fundamental gaps in our knowledge.

Indicators of the impact of climate change on migratory species

The Bonn Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals adopted a Resolution in 2005 recognising the impacts of climate change on migratory species. It called on Contracting Parties to undertake more research to improve our understanding of these impacts and to implement adaptation measures to reduce foreseeable adverse effects. Given the large diversity of taxa and species affected by climate change, it is impossible to monitor all species and effects thereof. However, it is likely that many of the key ecological and physical processes through which climate change may impact wildlife could be monitored using a suite of indicators, each comprising parameters of species/populations or groups of species as proxies for wider assemblages, habitats and ecosystems. Herein, we identify a suite of 17 indicators whose attributes could reveal negative impacts of climate change on the global status of migratory species: 4 for birds, 4 for marine mammals, 2 for sea turtles, 1 for fish, 3 for land mammals and 3 for bats. A few of these indicators would be relatively straightforward to develop, but most would require additional data collation, and in many cases methodological development. Choosing and developing indicators of the impacts of climate change on migratory species is a challenge, particularly with endangered species, which are subject to many other pressures. To identify and implement conservation measures for these species, indicators must account for the full ensemble of pressures, and link to a system of alerts and triggers for action.