Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The ontogeny of na��ve and regulatory CD4(+) T-cell subsets during the first postnatal year: a cohort study

As there is limited knowledge regarding the longitudinal development and early ontogeny of naïve and regulatory CD4(+) T-cell subsets during the first postnatal year, we sought to evaluate the changes in proportion of naïve (thymic and central) and regulatory (resting and activated) CD4(+) T-cell populations during the first postnatal year. Blood samples were collected and analyzed at birth, 6 and 12 months of age from a population-derived sample of 130 infants. The proportion of naïve and regulatory CD4(+) T-cell populations was determined by flow cytometry, and the thymic and central naïve populations were sorted and their phenotype confirmed by relative expression of T cell-receptor excision circle DNA (TREC). At birth, the majority (94%) of CD4(+) T cells were naïve (CD45RA(+)), and of these, ~80% had a thymic naïve phenotype (CD31(+) and high TREC), with the remainder already central naïve cells (CD31(-) and low TREC). During the first year of life, the naïve CD4(+) T cells retained an overall thymic phenotype but decreased steadily. From birth to 6 months of age, the proportion of both resting naïve T regulatory cells (rTreg; CD4(+)CD45RA(+)FoxP3(+)) and activated Treg (aTreg, CD4(+)CD45RA(-)FoxP3(high)) increased markedly. The ratio of thymic to central naïve CD4(+) T cells was lower in males throughout the first postnatal year indicating early sexual dimorphism in immune development. This longitudinal study defines proportions of CD4(+) T-cell populations during the first year of postnatal life that provide a better understanding of normal immune development.

A prospective observational study of prevalence and outcomes of patients with Gold Standard Framework criteria in a tertiary regional Australian Hospital

OBJECTIVES: Report the use of an objective tool, UK Gold Standards Framework (GSF) criteria, to describe the prevalence, recognition and outcomes of patients with palliative care needs in an Australian acute health setting. The rationale for this is to enable hospital doctors to identify patients who should have a patient-centred discussion about goals of care in hospital. <br /><br />DESIGN: Prospective, observational, cohort study. <br /><br />PARTICIPANTS: Adult in-patients during two separate 24���h periods. <br /><br />MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of in-patients with GSF criteria, documentation of treatment limitations, hospital and 1���year survival, admission and discharge destination and multivariate regression analysis of factors associated with the presence of hospital treatment limitations and 1���year survival. <br /><br />RESULTS: Of 626 in-patients reviewed, 171 (27.3%) had at least one GSF criterion, with documentation of a treatment limitation discussion in 60 (30.5%) of those patients who had GSF criteria. Hospital mortality was 9.9%, 1���year mortality 50.3% and 3-year mortality 70.2% in patients with GSF criteria. One-year mortality was highest in patients with GSF cancer (73%), renal failure (67%) and heart failure (60%) criteria. Multivariate analysis revealed age, hospital length of stay and presence of the GSF chronic obstructive pulmonary disease criteria were independently associated with the likelihood of an in-hospital treatment limitation. Non-survivors at 3���years were more likely to have a GSF cancer (25% vs 6%, p=0.004), neurological (10% vs 3%, p=0.04), or frailty (45% vs 3%, p=0.04) criteria. After multivariate logistic regression GSF cancer criteria, renal failure criteria and the presence of two or more GSF clinical criteria were independently associated with increased risk of death at 3���years. Patients returning home to live reduced from 69% (preadmission) to 27% after discharge. <br /><br />CONCLUSIONS: The use of an objective clinical tool identifies a high prevalence of patients with palliative care needs in the acute tertiary Australian hospital setting, with a high 1���year mortality and poor return to independence in this population. The low rate of documentation of discussions about treatment limitations in this population suggests palliative care needs are not recognised and discussed in the majority of patients. <br /><br />TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: 11/121.

Fertility after young-onset colorectal cancer: a study of subjects with Lynch syndrome

AIM: Infertility is a concern for young survivors of colorectal cancer (CRC), but this risk is not well quantified. Carriers of mismatch repair (MMR) mutations are a useful cohort for studying fertility after CRC as they commonly develop CRC when young, and unaffected family members provide demographically similar controls. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of CRC on fertility in a large cohort of MMR mutation carriers. METHOD: Mismatch repair mutation carriers identified from the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry were included. For each year of life within the fertile age range (15-49), the number of living individuals and the number of children born to them were determined. Individuals were grouped by whether or not they had had a diagnosis of CRC by that age. Age-specific and total fertility rates were calculated. RESULTS: We identified 1068 subjects (611 women and 457 men), of whom 467 were diagnosed with CRC. There were 1192 births during 18 674 person-years of follow-up to the women and 814 births during 14 013 person-years of follow-up to the men. The total fertility rate was decreased in women after a diagnosis of CRC compared with those who did not have CRC (1.3 vs 2.2; P = 0.0011), but age-specific fertility was only reduced in the 20-24-year age group. In men the total fertility rate was similar for both groups (2.0 vs 1.8; P = 0.27). CONCLUSION: Age-specific fertility was decreased in female CRC survivors with Lynch syndrome aged 20-24, but not in older women or in men.

Fatores de risco para morte em pacientes diab��ticos e n��o diab��ticos em tratamento hemodial��tico

A mortalidade dos pacientes diab��ticos, quando iniciam tratamento hemodial��tico, ainda �� muito elevada, significativamente maior do que a dos pacientes n��o diab��ticos. As doen��as card��acas s��o a principal causa de morte nestes pacientes. O diabetes, por si s��, est�� associado a uma alta preval��ncia de hipertens��o, doen��a cardiovascular e insufici��ncia card��aca, resultando em morbi-mortalidade significativas. Tradicionalmente, a mortalidade tem sido associada �� cardiopatia isqu��mica. A mortalidade cardiovascular, entretanto, n��o est�� relacionada apenas �� isquemia, mas tamb��m �� insufici��ncia card��aca e �� morte s��bita. O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar o papel da doen��a cardiovascular como fator progn��stico para a morte de pacientes diab��ticos e n��o diab��ticos, que iniciam hemodi��lise, levando em considera����o outros fatores. Este foi um estudo prospectivo de uma coorte de 40 pacientes diab��ticos e 28 n��o diab��ticos, que iniciaram programa de hemodi��lise, de agosto de 1996 a junho de 1999, em 5 hospitais de Porto Alegre, Brasil. O tempo total de acompanhamento foi de 4,25 anos. A avalia����o inicial, realizada entre o 20 e o 30 m��s de hemodi��lise, incluiu: um question��rio com caracter��sticas demogr��ficas, hist��ria do diabetes e suas complica����es, hist��ria de hipertens��o e acidente vascular cerebral; o exame f��sico incluindo avalia����o nutricional e exame oftalmol��gico; e avalia����o laboratorial com medidas de par��metros nutricionais, bioqu��micos, hormonais, perfil lip��dico, e controle metab��lico do diabetes, al��m da avalia����o da adequa����o da di��lise. Para a avalia����o cardiovascular foram utilizados: question��rio Rose, ECG em repouso, cintilografia em repouso e sob dipiridamol, e ecocardiograma bi-dimensional e com Doppler. A mortalidade foi analisada ao final dos 51 meses, e as causas de morte, definidas pelos registros m��dicos, atestados de ��bito ou informa����es do m��dico assistente ou familiar. Na an��lise estat��stica, foram empregados o teste t de Student, o qui-quadrado (��2) ou teste exato de Fisher. Para a an��lise da sobrevida, o m��todo de Kaplan-Meier foi utilizado, e, para identificar os principais fatores associados �� mortalidade, construiu-se um modelo de regress��o m��ltipla de Cox. O n��vel de signific��ncia adotado foi de 5%. Ao final do estudo, os pacientes diab��ticos tiveram um ��ndice de mortalidade significativamente mais elevado do que os pacientes sem diabetes (47,5% vs. 7,1%; P=0,0013, log rank test). Na an��lise de Cox, o padr��o pseudonormal ou restritivo de disfun����o diast��lica esteve associado a um risco de 3,2 (IC 95%:1,2-8,8; P=0,02), e a presen��a de diabetes, a um risco de 4,7 (IC 95%:1,03-21,4; P=0,04) para a morte. Concluiu-se que a disfun����o diast��lica do ventr��culo esquerdo foi o principal preditor de mortalidade nesta coorte de pacientes que est��o iniciando tratamento hemodial��tico.

Project Pr��-Natal: population-based study of perinatal and infant mortality in Natal, Northeast Brazil

RAMOS, Ana Maria de Oliveira et al. Project Pr��-Natal: population-based study of perinatal and infant mortality in Natal, Northeast Brazil. Pediatric and Developmental Pathology, v.3, n.1, p.29-35, 2000

Preliminary study on age- and sex-dependent alterations in the composition of skeletal muscle fibers of Brasileiro de Hipismo horses

The aim of this work was to characterize the distribution of myofibers in the gluteus medius muscle of inactive horses of the Brasileiro de Hipismo (BH) breed at different ages by means of histochemical analyses, according to sex and depth of the biopsy. A total of 78 inactive horses (9 castrated males, 35 stallions, and 34 females) of the BH breed, aged 1 to 4 years, were used. A percutaneous muscle biopsy was obtained with a 6.0-mm Bergstrom-type needle, which allowed the removal of muscle fragments at depths of 20 and 60 mm. Myofiber types were determined based on myofibrillar adenosine triphosphatase (mATPase) and nicotinamide dinucleotide tetrazolium reductase (NADH-TR) techniques. Morphometry of the fibers was determined based on cross-sectional area (CSA), mean frequency (F), and relative cross-sectional area (RCSA). The current study demonstrated that BH horses 3 and 4 years of age show a greater percentage of, and area occupied by, type IIA fibers and lower percentage of type IIX fibers in the gluteus medius muscle compared with horses 1 and 2 years of age. No difference was found between sexes in the frequency of and area occupied by the different fiber types at any of the depths and ages studied. In this study, females showed a greater CSA for all fibers in comparison with males, at 1 year of age. The results of the current study indicate that the gluteus medius muscle of inactive BH horses shows modifications in its structural and biochemical composition during the growth of the animals, leading to a better oxidative capacity.

Trends of the genetic connectedness measures among Nelore beef cattle herds

Coordena����o de Aperfei��oamento de Pessoal de N��vel Superior (CAPES)

Thermally stimulated crystallization glass system of (20-x)LiO2-80TeO(2)-xWO(3)

Coordena����o de Aperfei��oamento de Pessoal de N��vel Superior (CAPES)

Perioperative cardiac arrest and its mortality in children. A 9-year survey in a Brazilian tertiary teaching hospital

Background: the incidence of perioperative cardiac arrest and mortality in children is higher than in adults. This survey evaluated the incidence, causes, and outcome of perioperative cardiac arrests in a pediatric surgical population in a tertiary teaching hospital between 1996 and 2004.Methods: the incidence of cardiac arrest during anesthesia was identified from an anesthesia database. During the study period, 15 253 anesthetics were performed in children. Data collected included patient demographics, surgical procedures (elective, urgent, or emergency), ASA physical status classification, anesthesia provider information, type of surgery, surgical areas, and outcome. All cardiac arrests were reviewed and grouped by the cause of arrest and death into one of four groups: totally anesthesia-related, partially anesthesia-related, totally surgery-related, or totally child disease or condition-related.Results: There were 35 cardiac arrests (22.9 : 10 000) and 15 deaths (9.8 : 10 000). Major risk factors for cardiac arrest were neonates and children under 1 year of age (P < 0.05) with ASA III or poorer physical status (P < 0.05), in emergency surgery (P < 0.05), and general anesthesia (P < 0.05). Child disease/condition was the major cause of cardiac arrest or death (P < 0.05). There were seven cardiac arrests because of anesthesia (4.58 : 10 000) - four totally (2.62 : 10 000) and three partially related to anesthesia (1.96 : 10 000). There were no anesthesia attributable deaths reported. The main causes of anesthesia attributable cardiac arrest were respiratory events (71.5%) and medication-related events (28.5%).Conclusions: Perioperative cardiac arrests were relatively higher in neonates and infants than in older children with severe underlying disease and during emergency surgery. The fact that all anesthesia attributable cardiac arrests were related to airway management and medication administration is important in prevention strategies.

Peritonitis in recent years: clinical findings and predictors of treatment response of 170 episodes at a single Brazilian center

Funda����o de Amparo �� Pesquisa do Estado de S��o Paulo (FAPESP)

Post-operative analgesic effects of butorphanol or firocoxib administered to dogs undergoing elective ovariohysterectomy

ObjectiveTo compare the post-operative analgesic effects of butorphanol or firocoxib in dogs undergoing ovariohysterectomy.Study designProspective, randomized, blinded, clinical trial.AnimalsTwenty-five dogs > 1 year of age.MethodsDogs received acepromazine intramuscularly (IM), 0.05 mg kg-1 and either butorphanol IM, 0.2 mg kg-1 (BG, n = 12) or firocoxib orally (PO), 5 mg kg-1 (FG, n = 13), approximately 30 minutes before induction of anesthesia with propofol. Anesthesia was maintained with isoflurane. Ovariohysterectomy was performed by the same surgeon. Pain scores using the dynamic and interactive visual analog scale (DIVAS) were performed before and at 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8 and 20 hours after the end of surgery by one observer, blinded to the treatment. Rescue analgesia was provided with morphine (0.5 mg kg-1) IM and firocoxib, 5 mg kg-1 (BG only) PO if DIVAS > 50. Groups were compared using paired t-tests and Fisher's exact test (p < 0.05). Data are presented as mean +/- SD.ResultsThe BG required significantly less propofol (BG: 2.6 +/- 0.59 mg kg-1; FG: 5.39 +/- 0.7 mg kg-1) (p < 0.05) but the anesthesia time was longer (BG: 14 +/- 6, FG: 10 +/- 4 minutes). There were no differences for body weight (BG: 7.9 +/- 5.0, FG: 11.5 +/- 4.6 kg), sedation scores, and surgery and extubation times (BG: 10 +/- 2, 8 +/- 5 minutes; FG: 9 +/- 3, 8 +/- 4 minutes, respectively) (p > 0.05). The FG had significantly lower pain scores than the BG at 1, 2 and 3 hours following surgery (p < 0.05). Rescue analgesia was administered to 11/12 (92%) and 2/13 (15%) dogs in the BG and FG, respectively (p < 0.05).Conclusion and clinical relevanceFirocoxib produced better post-operative analgesia than butorphanol. Firocoxib may be used as part of a multimodal analgesia protocol but may not be effective as a sole analgesic.

Using the Condylar Prosthesis After Resection of a Large Odontogenic Myxoma Tumor in the Mandible

Odontogenic myxomas are considered to be a benign odontogenic tumor with locally aggressive behavior. Because these neoplasms are rare in the oral cavity, the possible surgical management can be quite variable. Literature recommendation can vary from simple curettage and peripheral ostectomy to segmental resection. The authors report a case of a 20-year-old patient with an odontogenic myxoma tumor located in the left mandibular angle, ascending ramus, and mandibular symphysis. It was treated by radical resection followed by titanium reconstruction with condylar prosthesis, which allowed rapid return of function with improvement in quality of life and restoration of cosmetic and functional deficits. The lesion did not recur after surgical procedure.

Logistic regression analysis of potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism

Objective: To identify potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE), establishing a mathematical model to predict the risk for fatal PTE and nonfatal PTE.Method: the reports on 4,813 consecutive autopsies performed from 1979 to 1998 in a Brazilian tertiary referral medical school were reviewed for a retrospective study. From the medical records and autopsy reports of the 512 patients found with macroscopically and/or microscopically,documented PTE, data on demographics, underlying diseases, and probable PTE site of origin were gathered and studied by multiple logistic regression. Thereafter, the jackknife method, a statistical cross-validation technique that uses the original study patients to validate a clinical prediction rule, was performed.Results: the autopsy rate was 50.2%, and PTE prevalence was 10.6%. In 212 cases, PTE was the main cause of death (fatal PTE). The independent variables selected by the regression significance criteria that were more likely to be associated with fatal PTE were age (odds ratio [OR], 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.03), trauma (OR, 8.5; 95% CI, 2.20 to 32.81), right-sided cardiac thrombi (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.02 to 3.77), pelvic vein thrombi (OR, 3.46; 95% CI, 1.19 to 10.05); those most likely to be associated with nonfatal PTE were systemic arterial hypertension (OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.80), pneumonia (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.71), and sepsis (OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.06 to 0.40). The results obtained from the application of the equation in the 512 cases studied using logistic regression analysis suggest the range in which logit p > 0.336 favors the occurrence of fatal PTE, logit p < - 1.142 favors nonfatal PTE, and logit P with intermediate values is not conclusive. The cross-validation prediction misclassification rate was 25.6%, meaning that the prediction equation correctly classified the majority of the cases (74.4%).Conclusions: Although the usefulness of this method in everyday medical practice needs to be confirmed by a prospective study, for the time being our results suggest that concerning prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of PTE, strict attention should be given to those patients presenting the variables that are significant in the logistic regression model.

Occurrence of gastrointestinal parasites in goat kids

Amostras fecais de cabritos machos e f��meas, de diferentes ra��as e com at�� uma ano de idade, foram examinadas para determina����o do n��mero de ovos e oocistos por grama de fezes (OPG e OoPG, respectivamente) e coprocultura para identifica����o gen��rica dos nemat��deos. Ovos de helmintos e oocistos de Eimeria spp. foram observados em 93,06% (188/202) e 77,22% (156/202) das amostras, respectivamente. Pelas coproculturas, foram identificados os g��neros Cooperia em 11,88% (24/202), Haemonchus em 51,98% (105/202), Oesophagostomum em 9,4% (19/202), Strongyloides em 5,94 (12/202) e Trichostrongylus em 20,79% (42/202) das amostras. As esp��cies de Eimeria encontradas foram E. alijevi em 25,24% (51/202), E. arloingi em 7,42% (15/202), E. caprina em 2,97% (6/202), E. caprovina em 10,39% (21/202), E. christenseni em 4,45% (9/202), E. joklchijevi em 11,38% (23/202), E. hirci em 9,4% (19/202) e E. ninakohlyakimovae em 28,71% (58/202) das amostras. Dentre os parasitas gastrintestinais, houve predomin��ncia do g��nero Haemonchus e de duas esp��cies de Eimeria: E. ninakohlyakimovae e E. alijevi.