Future of earthquake early warning : quantifying uncertainty and making fast automated decisions for applications

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications.

Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake.

To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.

Chesapeake and Delaware Canal Affects Environmental: presented at American Society of Civil Engineers National Water Resources Engineering Meeting, Phoenix, Arizona, 14 January 1971

The Chesapeake and Delaware Canal is a man-made waterway connecting the upper Chesapeake Bay with the Delaware Bay. It started in 1829 as a private barge canal with locks, two at the Delaware end, and one at the Chesapeake end. For the most part, natural tidal and non-tidal waterways were connected by short dredged sections to form the original canal. In 1927, the C and D Canal was converted to a sea-level canal, with a controlling depth of 14 feet, and a width of 150 feet. In 1938 the canal was deepened to 27 feet, with a channel width of 250 feet. Channel side slopes were dredged at 2.5:1, thus making the total width of the waterway at least 385 feet in those segments representing new cuts or having shore spoil area dykes rising above sea level. In 1954 Congress authorized a further enlargement of the Canal to a depth of 35 feet and a channel width of 450 feet. (pdf contains 27 pages)

Engineering and Characterization of Cytochrome P450 Enzymes for Nitrogen-Atom Transfer Reactions

The creation of novel enzyme activity is a great challenge to protein engineers, but nature has done so repeatedly throughout the process of natural selection. I begin by outlining the multitude of distinct reactions catalyzed by a single enzyme class, cytochrome P450 monooxygenases. I discuss the ability of cytochrome P450 to generate reactive intermediates capable of diverse reactivity, suggesting this enzyme can also be used to generate novel reactive intermediates in the form of metal-carbenoid and nitrenoid species. I then show that cytochrome P450 from Bacillus megaterium (P450_BM3) and its isolated cofactor can catalyze metal-nitrenoid transfer in the form of intramolecular C–H bond amination. Mutations to the protein sequence can enhance the reactivity and selectivity of this transformation significantly beyond that of the free cofactor. Next, I demonstrate an intermolecular nitrene transfer reaction catalyzed by P450_BM3 in the form of sulfide imidation. Understanding that sulfur heteroatoms are strong nucleophiles, I show that increasing the sulfide nucleophilicity through substituents on the aryl sulfide ring can dramatically increase reaction productivity. To explore engineering nitrenoid transfer in P450BM3, active site mutagenesis is employed to tune the regioselectivity intramolecular C–H amination catalysts. The solution of the crystal structure of a highly selective variant demonstrates that hydrophobic residues in the active site strongly modulate reactivity and regioselectivity. Finally, I use a similar strategy to develop P450-based catalysts for intermolecular olefin aziridination, demonstrating that active site mutagenesis can greatly enhance this nitrene transfer reaction. The resulting variant can catalyze intermolecular aziridination with more than 1000 total turnovers and enantioselectivity of up to 99% ee.

Band Engineering in Thermoelectric Materials Using Optical, Electronic, and Ab-Initio Computed Properties

Thermoelectric materials have demanded a significant amount of attention for their ability to convert waste heat directly to electricity with no moving parts. A resurgence in thermoelectrics research has led to significant enhancements in the thermoelectric figure of merit, zT, even for materials that were already well studied. This thesis approaches thermoelectric zT optimization by developing a detailed understanding of the electronic structure using a combination of electronic/thermoelectric properties, optical properties, and ab-initio computed electronic band structures. This is accomplished by applying these techniques to three important classes of thermoelectric materials: IV-VI materials (the lead chalcogenides), Half-Heusler’s (XNiSn where X=Zr, Ti, Hf), and CoSb₃ skutterudites.

In the IV-VI materials (PbTe, PbSe, PbS) I present a shifting temperature-dependent optical absorption edge which correlates well to the computed ab-initio molecular dynamics result. Contrary to prior literature that suggests convergence of the primary and secondary bands at 400 K, I suggest a higher convergence temperature of 700, 900, and 1000 K for PbTe, PbSe, and PbS, respectively. This finding can help guide electronic properties modelling by providing a concrete value for the band gap and valence band offset as a function of temperature.

Another important thermoelectric material, ZrNiSn (half-Heusler), is analyzed for both its optical and electronic properties; transport properties indicate a largely different band gap depending on whether the material is doped n-type or p-type. By measuring and reporting the optical band gap value of 0.13 eV, I resolve the discrepancy in the gap calculated from electronic properties (maximum Seebeck and resistivity) by correlating these estimates to the electron-to-hole weighted mobility ratio, A, in narrow gap materials (A is found to be approximately 5.0 in ZrNiSn).

I also show that CoSb₃ contains multiple conduction bands that contribute to the thermoelectric properties. These bands are also observed to shift towards each other with temperature, eventually reaching effective convergence for T>500 K. This implies that the electronic structure in CoSb₃ is critically important (and possibly engineerable) with regards to its high thermoelectric figure of merit.

Programming chemical kinetics: engineering dynamic reaction networks with DNA strand displacement

Over the last century, the silicon revolution has enabled us to build faster, smaller and more sophisticated computers. Today, these computers control phones, cars, satellites, assembly lines, and other electromechanical devices. Just as electrical wiring controls electromechanical devices, living organisms employ "chemical wiring" to make decisions about their environment and control physical processes. Currently, the big difference between these two substrates is that while we have the abstractions, design principles, verification and fabrication techniques in place for programming with silicon, we have no comparable understanding or expertise for programming chemistry.

In this thesis we take a small step towards the goal of learning how to systematically engineer prescribed non-equilibrium dynamical behaviors in chemical systems. We use the formalism of chemical reaction networks (CRNs), combined with mass-action kinetics, as our programming language for specifying dynamical behaviors. Leveraging the tools of nucleic acid nanotechnology (introduced in Chapter 1), we employ synthetic DNA molecules as our molecular architecture and toehold-mediated DNA strand displacement as our reaction primitive.

Abstraction, modular design and systematic fabrication can work only with well-understood and quantitatively characterized tools. Therefore, we embark on a detailed study of the "device physics" of DNA strand displacement (Chapter 2). We present a unified view of strand displacement biophysics and kinetics by studying the process at multiple levels of detail, using an intuitive model of a random walk on a 1-dimensional energy landscape, a secondary structure kinetics model with single base-pair steps, and a coarse-grained molecular model that incorporates three-dimensional geometric and steric effects. Further, we experimentally investigate the thermodynamics of three-way branch migration. Our findings are consistent with previously measured or inferred rates for hybridization, fraying, and branch migration, and provide a biophysical explanation of strand displacement kinetics. Our work paves the way for accurate modeling of strand displacement cascades, which would facilitate the simulation and construction of more complex molecular systems.

In Chapters 3 and 4, we identify and overcome the crucial experimental challenges involved in using our general DNA-based technology for engineering dynamical behaviors in the test tube. In this process, we identify important design rules that inform our choice of molecular motifs and our algorithms for designing and verifying DNA sequences for our molecular implementation. We also develop flexible molecular strategies for "tuning" our reaction rates and stoichiometries in order to compensate for unavoidable non-idealities in the molecular implementation, such as imperfectly synthesized molecules and spurious "leak" pathways that compete with desired pathways.

We successfully implement three distinct autocatalytic reactions, which we then combine into a de novo chemical oscillator. Unlike biological networks, which use sophisticated evolved molecules (like proteins) to realize such behavior, our test tube realization is the first to demonstrate that Watson-Crick base pairing interactions alone suffice for oscillatory dynamics. Since our design pipeline is general and applicable to any CRN, our experimental demonstration of a de novo chemical oscillator could enable the systematic construction of CRNs with other dynamic behaviors.

Studies of response to earthquake ground motion

A study is made of the accuracy of electronic digital computer calculations of ground displacement and response spectra from strong-motion earthquake accelerograms. This involves an investigation of methods of the preparatory reduction of accelerograms into a form useful for the digital computation and of the accuracy of subsequent digital calculations. Various checks are made for both the ground displacement and response spectra results, and it is concluded that the main errors are those involved in digitizing the original record. Differences resulting from various investigators digitizing the same experimental record may become as large as 100% of the maximum computed ground displacements. The spread of the results of ground displacement calculations is greater than that of the response spectra calculations. Standardized methods of adjustment and calculation are recommended, to minimize such errors.

Studies are made of the spread of response spectral values about their mean. The distribution is investigated experimentally by Monte Carlo techniques using an electric analog system with white noise excitation, and histograms are presented indicating the dependence of the distribution on the damping and period of the structure. Approximate distributions are obtained analytically by confirming and extending existing results with accurate digital computer calculations. A comparison of the experimental and analytical approaches indicates good agreement for low damping values where the approximations are valid. A family of distribution curves to be used in conjunction with existing average spectra is presented. The combination of analog and digital computations used with Monte Carlo techniques is a promising approach to the statistical problems of earthquake engineering.

Methods of analysis of very small earthquake ground motion records obtained simultaneously at different sites are discussed. The advantages of Fourier spectrum analysis for certain types of studies and methods of calculation of Fourier spectra are presented. The digitizing and analysis of several earthquake records is described and checks are made of the dependence of results on digitizing procedure, earthquake duration and integration step length. Possible dangers of a direct ratio comparison of Fourier spectra curves are pointed out and the necessity for some type of smoothing procedure before comparison is established. A standard method of analysis for the study of comparative ground motion at different sites is recommended.

A brief study of economic Penstock design : Supplementary to Course 800, Department of Civil Engineering

No abstract.