Different likelihood ratio approaches to evaluate the strength of evidence of MDMA tablet comparisons

Two likelihood ratio (LR) approaches are presented to evaluate the strength of evidence of MDMA tablet comparisons. The first one is based on a more 'traditional' comparison of MDMA tablets by using distance measures (e.g., Pearson correlation distance or a Euclidean distance). In this approach, LRs are calculated using the distribution of distances between tablets of the same-batch and that of different-batches. The second approach is based on methods used in some other fields of forensic comparison. Here LRs are calculated based on the distribution of values of MDMA tablet characteristics within a specific batch and from all batches. The data used in this paper must be seen as examples to illustrate both methods. In future research the methods can be applied to other and more complex data. In this paper, the methods and their results are discussed, considering their performance in evidence evaluation and several practical aspects. With respect to evidence in favor of the correct hypothesis, the second method proved to be better than the first one. It is shown that the LRs in same-batch comparisons are generally higher compared to the first method and the LRs in different-batch comparisons are generally lower. On the other hand, for operational purposes (where quick information is needed), the first method may be preferred, because it is less time consuming. With this method a model has to be estimated only once in a while, which means that only a few measurements have to be done, while with the second method more measurements are needed because each time a new model has to be estimated.

Tutkijakollegium : pitkiä kysymyksiä, lyhyitä vastauksia

Kysymykset: Esko Rahikainen

Secagem e armazenamento de sementes de cambuci

A longevidade de sementes de cambuci, Campomanesia phaea (Berg.) Landr. (Myrtaceae), espécie em risco de extinção, é fundamental no melhor aproveitamento da produção de mudas. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar os efeitos de temperaturas, substratos, níveis de dessecação e condições de armazenamento na capacidade germinativa de sementes de cambuci. Durante três anos consecutivos, foram realizadas coletas de frutos maduros, em oito matrizes, no Jardim Botânico de São Paulo, para a obtenção das sementes. Os experimentos foram realizados em estufas incubadoras para BOD, em delineamento inteiramente casualizado. Os melhores substratos para a germinação foram a vermiculita e sobre papel, em ambas as temperaturas testadas (25ºC e 30ºC). O armazenamento das sementes, em saco de plástico, em câmara fria (8±2ºC) foi mais eficiente que em condições não controladas de ambiente natural, em saco de papel. Com saco de plástico em câmara fria, após 240 dias, sementes sem dessecação mantiveram a germinação inicial de 100%, ao passo que as dessecadas até próximo a 3% de água apresentaram 83,8% de germinação. Sob condições não controladas de ambiente natural em saco de papel, apresentaram cerca de 48,8% de germinação, aos 180 dias de armazenamento, e perderam a capacidade germinativa aos 240 dias.

What determines the wavelength of self-organized shoreline sand waves?

Shoreline undulations extending into the bathymetric contours with a length scale larger than that of the rhythmic surf zone bars are referred to as shoreline sand waves. Many observed undulations along sandy coasts display a wavelength in the order 1-7 km. Several models that are based on the hypothesis that sand waves emerge from a morphodynamic instability in case of very oblique wave incidence predict this range of wavelengths. Here we investigate the physical reasons for the wavelength selection and the main parametric trends of the wavelength in case of sand waves arising from such instability. It is shown that the existence of a minimum wavelength depends on an interplay between three factors affecting littoral drift: (A) the angle of wave fronts relative to local shoreline, which tends to cause maximum transport at the downdrift flank of the sand wave, (B) the refractive energy spreading which tends to cause maximum transport at the updrift flank and (C) wave focusing (de-focusing) by the capes (bays), which tends to cause maximum transport at the crest or slightly downdrift of it. Processes A and C cause decay of the sand waves while process B causes their growth. For low incidence angles, B is very weak so that a rectilinear shoreline is stable. For large angles and long sand waves, B is dominant and causes the growth of sand waves. For large angles and short sand waves C is dominant and the sand waves decay. Thus, wavelength selection depends on process C, which essentially depends on shoreline curvature. The growth rate of very long sand waves is weak because the alongshore gradients in sediment transport decrease with the wavelength. This is why there is an optimum or dominant wavelength. It is found that sand wave wavelength scales with λ0/β where λ0 is the water wave wavelength in deep water and β is the mean bed slope from shore to the wave base.