The effect of ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) on Ashes series results in Australia

An analysis of the results of those "Ashes" cricket test matches between England and Australia which are played in Australia suggests a correlation between these results and the El-Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. In those years with a positive ENSO, results favour Australia, whereas in those years with a negative ENSO, results are more even. A potential mechanism is presented for this apparent correlation.

Time series analysis of lava flux

We have applied time series analytical techniques to the flux of lava from an extrusive eruption. Tilt data acting as a proxy for flux are used in a case study of the May–August 1997 period of the eruption at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We justify the use of such a proxy by simple calibratory arguments. Three techniques of time series analysis are employed: spectral, spectrogram and wavelet methods. In addition to the well-known ~9-hour periodicity shown by these data, a previously unknown periodic flux variability is revealed by the wavelet analysis as a 3-day cycle of frequency modulation during June–July 1997, though the physical mechanism responsible is not clear. Such time series analysis has potential for other lava flux proxies at other types of volcanoes.

A structural time series approach to modelling multiple and resurgent meat scares in Italy

This paper exploits a structural time series approach to model the time pattern of multiple and resurgent food scares and their direct and cross-product impacts on consumer response. A structural time series Almost Ideal Demand System (STS-AIDS) is embedded in a vector error correction framework to allow for dynamic effects (VEC-STS-AIDS). Italian aggregate household data on meat demand is used to assess the time-varying impact of a resurgent BSE crisis (1996 and 2000) and the 1999 Dioxin crisis. The VEC-STS-AIDS model monitors the short-run impacts and performs satisfactorily in terms of residuals diagnostics, overcoming the major problems encountered by the customary vector error correction approach.

Asymptotic normality in mixtures of power series distributions

The problem of estimating the individual probabilities of a discrete distribution is considered. The true distribution of the independent observations is a mixture of a family of power series distributions. First, we ensure identifiability of the mixing distribution assuming mild conditions. Next, the mixing distribution is estimated by non-parametric maximum likelihood and an estimator for individual probabilities is obtained from the corresponding marginal mixture density. We establish asymptotic normality for the estimator of individual probabilities by showing that, under certain conditions, the difference between this estimator and the empirical proportions is asymptotically negligible. Our framework includes Poisson, negative binomial and logarithmic series as well as binomial mixture models. Simulations highlight the benefit in achieving normality when using the proposed marginal mixture density approach instead of the empirical one, especially for small sample sizes and/or when interest is in the tail areas. A real data example is given to illustrate the use of the methodology.

Molecular dating and biogeography of fig-pollinating wasps

Figs and fig-pollinating wasps are obligate mutualists that have coevolved for over 60 million years. But when and where did pollinating fig wasps (Agaonidae) originate? Some studies suggest that agaonids arose in the Late Cretaceous and the current distribution of fig-wasp faunas can be explained by the break-up of the Gondwanan landmass. However, recent molecular-dating studies suggest divergence time estimates that are inconsistent with the Gondwanan vicariance hypothesis and imply that long distance oceanic dispersal could have been an important process for explaining the current distribution of both figs and fig wasps. Here, we use a combination of phylogenetic and biogeographical data to infer the age, the major period of diversification, and the geographic origin of pollinating fig wasps. Age estimates ranged widely depending on the molecular-dating method used and even when using the same method but with slightly different constraints, making it difficult to assess with certainty a Gondwanan origin of agaonids. The reconstruction of ancestral areas suggests that the most recent common ancestor of all extant fig-pollinating wasps was most likely Asian, although a southern Gondwana origin cannot be rejected. Our analysis also suggests that dispersal has played a more important role in the development of the fig-wasp biota than previously assumed. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The distribution of species diversity across a flora's component lineages: dating the Cape's 'relicts'

The Cape Floristic Region is exceptionally species-rich both for its area and latitude, and this diversity is highly unevenly distributed among genera. The modern flora is hypothesized to result largely from recent (post-Oligocene) speciation, and it has long been speculated that particular species-poor lineages pre-date this burst of speciation. Here, we employ molecular phylogenetic data in combination with fossil calibrations to estimate the minimum duration of Cape occupation by 14 unrelated putative relicts. Estimates vary widely between lineages (7-101 Myr ago), and when compared with the estimated timing of onset of the modern flora's radiation, it is clear that many, but possibly not all, of these lineages pre-date its establishment. Statistical comparisons of diversities with lineage age show that low species diversity of many of the putative relicts results from a lower rate of diversification than in dated Cape radiations. In other putative relicts, however, we cannot reject the possibility that they diversify at the same underlying rate as the radiations, but have been present in the Cape for insufficient time to accumulate higher diversity. Although the extremes in diversity of currently dated Cape lineages fall outside expectations under a underlying diversification rate, sampling of all Cape lineages would be required to reject this null hypothesis.

Analysis of molecular determinants of affinity and relative efficacy of a series of R- and S-2-(dipropylamino)tetralins at the 5-HT1A serotonin receptor

1 Factors influencing agonist affinity and relative efficacy have been studied for the 5-HT1A serotonin receptor using membranes of CHO cells expressing the human form of the receptor and a series of R-and S-2-(dipropylamino)tetralins (nonhydroxylated and monohydroxylated (5-OH, 6-OH, 7-OH, 8-OH) species). 2 Ligand binding studies were used to determine dissociation constants for agonist binding to the 5HT(1A) receptor: (a) K-i values for agonists were determined in competition versus the binding of the agonist [H-3]-8-OH DPAT. Competition data were all fitted best by a one-binding site model. (b) K-i values for agonists were also determined in competition versus the binding of the antagonist [H-3]-NAD-199. Competition data were all fitted best by a two-binding site model, and agonist affinities for the higher (K-h) and lower affinity (K-1) sites were determined. 3 The ability of the agonists to activate the 5-HT1A receptor was determined using stimulation of [S-35]-GTPgammaS binding. Maximal effects of agonists (E-max) and their potencies (EC50) were determined from concentration/response curves for stimulation of [S-35]-GTPgammaS binding. 4 K-1/K-h determined from ligand binding assays correlated with the relative efficacy (relative Em) of agonists determined in [S-35]-GTPgammaS binding assays. There was also a correlation between K-1/K-h and K-1/EC50 for agonists determined from ligand binding and [S-35]-GTPgammaS binding assays. 5 Simulations of agonist binding and effect data were performed using the Ternary Complex Model in order to assess the use of K-1/K-h for predicting the relative efficacy of agonists. British Journal of Pharmacology (2003) 138, 1129-1139. doi: 10. 1038/sj.bjp.705085.

Ordering on multiple lengthscales in a series of side group liquid crystal block copolymers containing a cholesteryl-based mesogen

Hierarchical ordering in a side group liquid crystal block copolymer is investigated by differential scanning calorimetry, polarized optical microscopy, small-angle X-ray and neutron scattering (SAXS and SANS) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). A series of block copolymers with a range of compositions was prepared by atom transfer radical polymerization, comprising a polystyrene block and a poly(methyl methacrylate) block bearing chiral cholesteryl mesogens. Smectic ordering is observed as well as microphase separation of the block copolymer. Lamellar structures were observed for far larger volume fractions than for coil-coil copolymers (up to a volume fraction of liquid crystal block, f(LC) = 0.8). A sample with f(LC) = 0.86 exhibited a hexagonal-packed cylinder morphology, as confirmed by SAXS and TEM. The matrix comprised the liquid crystal block, with the mesogens forming smectic layers. For the liquid crystal homopolymer and samples with high f(LC), a smectic-smectic phase transition was observed below the clearing point. At low temperature, the smectic phase comprises coexisting domains with monolayer S-A,S-1 coexisting with interdigitated S-A,S-d domains. At high temperature a SA,1 phase is observed. This is the only structure observed for samples with lower f(LC). These unprecedented results point to the influence of block copolymer microphase separation on the smectic ordering.

Extraction and coordination studies of the unexplored bifunctional ligand carbamoyl methyl sulfoxide (CMSO) with uranium(VI) and cerium(III) nitrates. Synthesis and structures of [UO2(NO3)(2)((PhSOCH2CONBu2)-Bu-i)] and [Ce(NO3)(3)(PhSOCH2CONBu2)(2)]

The bifunctional carbamoyl methyl sulfoxide ligands, PhCH2SOCH2CONHPh (L-1), PhCH2SOCH2CONHCH2Ph (L-2), (PhSOCH2CONPr2)-Pr-i (L-3), PhSOCH2CONBu2 (L-4), (PhSOCH2CONBu2)-Bu-i (L-5) and PhSOCH2CON(C8H17)(2) (L-6) have been synthesized and characterized by spectroscopic methods. The selected coordination chemistry of L-1, L-3, L-4 and L-5 with [UO2(NO3)(2)] and [Ce(NO3)(3)] has been evaluated. The structures of the compounds [UO2(NO3)(2)((PhSOCH2CONBu2)-Bu-i)] (10) and [Ce(NO3)(3)(PhSOCH2CONBu2)(2)] (12) have been determined by single crystal X-ray diffraction methods. Preliminary extraction studies of ligand L-6 with U(VI), Pu(IV) and Am(III) in tracer level showed an appreciable extraction for U(VI) and Pu(IV) in up to 10 M HNO3 but not for Am(III). Thermal studies on compounds 8 and 10 in air revealed that the ligands can be destroyed completely on incineration. The electron spray mass spectra of compounds 8 and 10 in acetone show that extensive ligand distribution reactions occur in solution to give a mixture of products with ligand to metal ratios of 1 : 1 and 2 : 1. However, 10 retains its solid state structure in CH2Cl2.

Coordination and extraction studies of an unexplored bi-functional ligand, carbamoyl methyl pyrazole (CMPz) with uranium(VI), lanthanum(III) and cerium(III) nitrates

The bi-functional carbamoyl methyl pyrazole ligands, C5H7N2CH2CONBu2 (L-1), (C5H7N2CH2CONBu2)-Bu-i (L-2), C3H3N2CH2CONBu2 (L-3), (C3H3N2CH2CONBu2)-Bu-i (L-4) and C5H7N2CH2CON(C8H17)(2) (L-5) were synthesized and characterized by spectroscopic and elemental analysis methods. The selected coordination chemistry of L-1 to L-4 with [UO2(NO3)(2)center dot 6H(2)O], [La(NO3)(3)center dot 6H(2)O] and [Ce(NO3)(3)center dot 6H(2)O] has been evaluated. Structures for the compounds [UO2(NO3)(2) C5H7N2CH2CONBu2] (6) [UO2(NO3)(2) (C5H7N2CHCONBu2)-Bu-i] (7) and [Ce(NO3)(3){C(3)H(3)N(2)CH(2)CON(i)Bu2}(2)] (11) have been determined by single crystal X-ray diffraction methods. Preliminary extraction studies of the ligand L-5 with U(VI) and Pu(IV) in tracer level showed an appreciable extraction for U(VI) and Pu(TV) up to 10 M HNO3 but not for Am(III). Thermal studies of the compounds 6 and 7 in air revealed that the ligands can be destroyed completely on incineration. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.