Estimation of population growth or decline in genetically monitored populations

This article introduces a new general method for genealogical inference that samples independent genealogical histories using importance sampling (IS) and then samples other parameters with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). It is then possible to more easily utilize the advantages of importance sampling in a fully Bayesian framework. The method is applied to the problem of estimating recent changes in effective population size from temporally spaced gene frequency data. The method gives the posterior distribution of effective population size at the time of the oldest sample and at the time of the most recent sample, assuming a model of exponential growth or decline during the interval. The effect of changes in number of alleles, number of loci, and sample size on the accuracy of the method is described using test simulations, and it is concluded that these have an approximately equivalent effect. The method is used on three example data sets and problems in interpreting the posterior densities are highlighted and discussed.

Computer modelling and estimation of recruitment patterns of non-branching coral colonies at three sites in Wakatobi Marine Park, S.E. Sulawesi, Indonesia; implications for coral reef conservation

We have studied growth and estimated recruitment of massive coral colonies at three sites, Kaledupa, Hoga and Sampela, separated by about 1.5 km in the Wakatobi Marine National Park, S.E. Sulawesi, Indonesia. There was significantly higher species richness (P<0.05), coral cover (P<0.05) and rugosity (P<0.01) at Kaledupa than at Sampela. A model for coral reef growth has been developed based on a rational polynomial function, where dx/dt is an index of coral growth with time; W is the variable (for example, coral weight, coral length or coral area), up to the power of n in the numerator and m in the denominator; a1……an and b1…bm are constants. The values for n and m represent the degree of the polynomial, and can relate to the morphology of the coral. The model was used to simulate typical coral growth curves, and tested using published data obtained by weighing coral colonies underwater in reefs on the south-west coast of Curaçao [‘Neth. J. Sea Res. 10 (1976) 285’]. The model proved an accurate fit to the data, and parameters were obtained for a number of coral species. Surface area data was obtained on over 1200 massive corals at three different sites in the Wakatobi Marine National Park, S.E. Sulawesi, Indonesia. The year of an individual's recruitment was calculated from knowledge of the growth rate modified by application of the rational polynomial model. The estimated pattern of recruitment was variable, with little numbers of massive corals settling and growing before 1950 at the heavily used site, Sampela, relative to the reef site with little or no human use, Kaledupa, and the intermediate site, Hoga. There was a significantly greater sedimentation rate at Sampela than at either Kaledupa (P<0.0001) or Hoga (P<0.0005). The relative mean abundance of fish families present at the reef crests at the three sites, determined using digital video photography, did not correlate with sedimentation rates, underwater visibility or lack of large non-branching coral colonies. Radial growth rates of three genera of non-branching corals were significantly lower at Sampela than at Kaledupa or at Hoga, and there was a high correlation (r=0.89) between radial growth rates and underwater visibility. Porites spp. was the most abundant coral over all the sites and at all depths followed by Favites (P<0.04) and Favia spp. (P<0.03). Colony ages of Porites corals were significantly lower at the 5 m reef flat on the Sampela reef than at the same depth on both other reefs (P<0.005). At Sampela, only 2.8% of corals on the 5 m reef crest are of a size to have survived from before 1950. The Scleractinian coral community of Sampela is severely impacted by depositing sediments which can lead to the suffocation of corals, whilst also decreasing light penetration resulting in decreased growth and calcification rates. The net loss of material from Sampela, if not checked, could result in the loss of this protective barrier which would be to the detriment of the sublittoral sand flats and hence the Sampela village.

Linkage disequilibrium assessment via log-linear modeling of SNP haplotype frequencies

Analyses of high-density single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data, such as genetic mapping and linkage disequilibrium (LD) studies, require phase-known haplotypes to allow for the correlation between tightly linked loci. However, current SNP genotyping technology cannot determine phase, which must be inferred statistically. In this paper, we present a new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for population haplotype frequency estimation, particulary in the context of LD assessment. The novel feature of the method is the incorporation of a log-linear prior model for population haplotype frequencies. We present simulations to suggest that 1) the log-linear prior model is more appropriate than the standard coalescent process in the presence of recombination (>0.02cM between adjacent loci), and 2) there is substantial inflation in measures of LD obtained by a "two-stage" approach to the analysis by treating the "best" haplotype configuration as correct, without regard to uncertainty in the recombination process. Genet Epidemiol 25:106-114, 2003. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Design and analysis of climate model experiments for the efficient estimation of anthropogenic signals

Presented herein is an experimental design that allows the effects of several radiative forcing factors on climate to be estimated as precisely as possible from a limited suite of atmosphere-only general circulation model (GCM) integrations. The forcings include the combined effect of observed changes in sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, stratospheric (volcanic) aerosols, and solar output, plus the individual effects of several anthropogenic forcings. A single linear statistical model is used to estimate the forcing effects, each of which is represented by its global mean radiative forcing. The strong colinearity in time between the various anthropogenic forcings provides a technical problem that is overcome through the design of the experiment. This design uses every combination of anthropogenic forcing rather than having a few highly replicated ensembles, which is more commonly used in climate studies. Not only is this design highly efficient for a given number of integrations, but it also allows the estimation of (nonadditive) interactions between pairs of anthropogenic forcings. The simulated land surface air temperature changes since 1871 have been analyzed. The changes in natural and oceanic forcing, which itself contains some forcing from anthropogenic and natural influences, have the most influence. For the global mean, increasing greenhouse gases and the indirect aerosol effect had the largest anthropogenic effects. It was also found that an interaction between these two anthropogenic effects in the atmosphere-only GCM exists. This interaction is similar in magnitude to the individual effects of changing tropospheric and stratospheric ozone concentrations or to the direct (sulfate) aerosol effect. Various diagnostics are used to evaluate the fit of the statistical model. For the global mean, this shows that the land temperature response is proportional to the global mean radiative forcing, reinforcing the use of radiative forcing as a measure of climate change. The diagnostic tests also show that the linear model was suitable for analyses of land surface air temperature at each GCM grid point. Therefore, the linear model provides precise estimates of the space time signals for all forcing factors under consideration. For simulated 50-hPa temperatures, results show that tropospheric ozone increases have contributed to stratospheric cooling over the twentieth century almost as much as changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases.

Likelihood-based estimation of microsatellite mutation rates

Microsatellites are widely used in genetic analyses, many of which require reliable estimates of microsatellite mutation rates, yet the factors determining mutation rates are uncertain. The most straightforward and conclusive method by which to study mutation is direct observation of allele transmissions in parent-child pairs, and studies of this type suggest a positive, possibly exponential, relationship between mutation rate and allele size, together with a bias toward length increase. Except for microsatellites on the Y chromosome, however, previous analyses have not made full use of available data and may have introduced bias: mutations have been identified only where child genotypes could not be generated by transmission from parents' genotypes, so that the probability that a mutation is detected depends on the distribution of allele lengths and varies with allele length. We introduce a likelihood-based approach that has two key advantages over existing methods. First, we can make formal comparisons between competing models of microsatellite evolution; second, we obtain asymptotically unbiased and efficient parameter estimates. Application to data composed of 118,866 parent-offspring transmissions of AC microsatellites supports the hypothesis that mutation rate increases exponentially with microsatellite length, with a suggestion that contractions become more likely than expansions as length increases. This would lead to a stationary distribution for allele length maintained by mutational balance. There is no evidence that contractions and expansions differ in their step size distributions.

The effect of Parkinson's disease on time estimation as a function of stimulus duration range and modality

The present research sought to investigate the role of the basal ganglia in timing of sub- and supra-second intervals via an examination of the ability of people with Parkinson's disease (PD) to make temporal judgments in two ranges, 100-500 ms, and 1-5 s. Eighteen nondemented medicated patients with PD were compared with 14 matched controls on a duration-bisection task in which participants were required to discriminate auditory and visual signal durations within each time range. Results showed that patients with PD exhibited more variable duration judgments across both signal modality and duration range than controls, although closer analyses confirmed a timing deficit in the longer duration range only. The findings presented here suggest the bisection procedure may be a useful tool in identifying timing impairments in PD and, more generally, reaffirm the hypothesised role of the basal ganglia in temporal perception at the level of the attentionally mediated internal clock as well as memory retrieval and/or decision-making processes. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A sparse kernel density estimation algorithm using forward constrained regression

Using the classical Parzen window (PW) estimate as the target function, the sparse kernel density estimator is constructed in a forward constrained regression manner. The leave-one-out (LOO) test score is used for kernel selection. The jackknife parameter estimator subject to positivity constraint check is used for the parameter estimation of a single parameter at each forward step. As such the proposed approach is simple to implement and the associated computational cost is very low. An illustrative example is employed to demonstrate that the proposed approach is effective in constructing sparse kernel density estimators with comparable accuracy to that of the classical Parzen window estimate.

An on-line algorithm of uncertain time delay estimation in a continuous system

In this paper, we present an on-line estimation algorithm for an uncertain time delay in a continuous system based on the observational input-output data, subject to observational noise. The first order Pade approximation is used to approximate the time delay. At each time step, the algorithm combines the well known Kalman filter algorithm and the recursive instrumental variable least squares (RIVLS) algorithm in cascade form. The instrumental variable least squares algorithm is used in order to achieve the consistency of the delay parameter estimate, since an error-in-the-variable model is involved. An illustrative example is utilized to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.

Improved channel estimation in TDMA by reproduction with applications in GSM/GPRS under co-channel interference

Finding an estimate of the channel impulse response (CIR) by correlating a received known (training) sequence with the sent training sequence is commonplace. Where required, it is also common to truncate the longer correlation to a sub-set of correlation coefficients by finding the set of N sequential correlation coefficients with the maximum power. This paper presents a new approach to selecting the optimal set of N CIR coefficients from the correlation rather than relying on power. The algorithm reconstructs a set of predicted symbols using the training sequence and various sub-sets of the correlation to find the sub-set that results in the minimum mean squared error between the actual received symbols and the reconstructed symbols. The application of the algorithm is presented in the context of the TDMA based GSM/GPRS system to demonstrate an improvement in the system performance with the new algorithm and the results are presented in the paper. However, the application lends itself to any training sequence based communication system often found within wireless consumer electronic device(1).

Linear predicted two-pass hexagonal algorithm with parallel implementation for motion estimation

This paper presents a paralleled Two-Pass Hexagonal (TPA) algorithm constituted by Linear Hashtable Motion Estimation Algorithm (LHMEA) and Hexagonal Search (HEXBS) for motion estimation. In the TPA., Motion Vectors (MV) are generated from the first-pass LHMEA and are used as predictors for second-pass HEXBS motion estimation, which only searches a small number of Macroblocks (MBs). We introduced hashtable into video processing and completed parallel implementation. We propose and evaluate parallel implementations of the LHMEA of TPA on clusters of workstations for real time video compression. It discusses how parallel video coding on load balanced multiprocessor systems can help, especially on motion estimation. The effect of load balancing for improved performance is discussed. The performance or the algorithm is evaluated by using standard video sequences and the results are compared to current algorithms.

A novel two pass hexagonal search algorithm for motion estimation

This paper presents a novel two-pass algorithm constituted by Linear Hashtable Motion Estimation Algorithm (LHMEA) and Hexagonal Search (HEXBS). compensation. for block base motion On the basis of research from previous algorithms, especially an on-the-edge motion estimation algorithm called hexagonal search (HEXBS), we propose the LHMEA and the Two-Pass Algorithm (TPA). We introduce hashtable into video compression. In this paper we employ LHMEA for the first-pass search in all the Macroblocks (MB) in the picture. Motion Vectors (MV) are then generated from the first-pass and are used as predictors for second-pass HEXBS motion estimation, which only searches a small number of MBs. The evaluation of the algorithm considers the three important metrics being time, compression rate and PSNR. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated by using standard video sequences and the results are compared to current algorithms. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm can offer the same compression rate as the Full Search. LHMEA with TPA has significant improvement on HEXBS and shows a direction for improving other fast motion estimation algorithms, for example Diamond Search.

Paralelled Two-Pass Hexagonal algorithm for motion estimation

This paper presents a paralleled Two-Pass Hexagonal (TPA) algorithm constituted by Linear Hashtable Motion Estimation Algorithm (LHMEA) and Hexagonal Search (HEXBS) for motion estimation. In the TPA, Motion Vectors (MV) are generated from the first-pass LHMEA and are used as predictors for second-pass HEXBS motion estimation, which only searches a small number of Macroblocks (MBs). We introduced hashtable into video processing and completed parallel implementation. We propose and evaluate parallel implementations of the LHMEA of TPA on clusters of workstations for real time video compression. It discusses how parallel video coding on load balanced multiprocessor systems can help, especially on motion estimation. The effect of load balancing for improved performance is discussed. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated by using standard video sequences and the results are compared to current algorithms.

Two-Pass Hexagonal algorithm with improved Hashtable structure for motion estimation

This paper presents an improved Two-Pass Hexagonal (TPA) algorithm constituted by Linear Hashtable Motion Estimation Algorithm (LHMEA) and Hexagonal Search (HEXBS) for motion estimation. In the TPA, Motion Vectors (MV) are generated from the first-pass LHMEA and are used as predictors for second-pass HEXBS motion estimation, which only searches a small number of Macroblocks (MBs). The hashtable structure of LHMEA is improved compared to the original TPA and LHMEA. The evaluation of the algorithm considers the three important metrics being processing time, compression rate and PSNR. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated by using standard video sequences and the results are compared to current algorithms.