Evaluation of Different Methods to Calculate Heavy-Truck VMT, Final Report, December 2004

Reliable estimates of heavy-truck volumes are important in a number of transportation applications. Estimates of truck volumes are necessary for pavement design and pavement management. Truck volumes are important in traffic safety. The number of trucks on the road also influences roadway capacity and traffic operations. Additionally, heavy vehicles pollute at higher rates than passenger vehicles. Consequently, reliable estimates of heavy-truck vehicle miles traveled (VMT) are important in creating accurate inventories of on-road emissions. This research evaluated three different methods to calculate heavy-truck annual average daily traffic (AADT) which can subsequently be used to estimate vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Traffic data from continuous count stations provided by the Iowa DOT were used to estimate AADT for two different truck groups (single-unit and multi-unit) using the three methods. The first method developed monthly and daily expansion factors for each truck group. The second and third methods created general expansion factors for all vehicles. Accuracy of the three methods was compared using n-fold cross-validation. In n-fold cross-validation, data are split into n partitions, and data from the nth partition are used to validate the remaining data. A comparison of the accuracy of the three methods was made using the estimates of prediction error obtained from cross-validation. The prediction error was determined by averaging the squared error between the estimated AADT and the actual AADT. Overall, the prediction error was the lowest for the method that developed expansion factors separately for the different truck groups for both single- and multi-unit trucks. This indicates that use of expansion factors specific to heavy trucks results in better estimates of AADT, and, subsequently, VMT, than using aggregate expansion factors and applying a percentage of trucks. Monthly, daily, and weekly traffic patterns were also evaluated. Significant variation exists in the temporal and seasonal patterns of heavy trucks as compared to passenger vehicles. This suggests that the use of aggregate expansion factors fails to adequately describe truck travel patterns.

Infarctus cérébraux artériels d'origine hématologique : expérience lausannoise et revue de la littérature

RÉSUMÉ Introduction. Les hémopathies représentent une cause rare d'accident vasculaire cérébral (AVC), faisant l'objet de peu de publications, mais sont très fréquemment recherchées après un AVC par de coûteux bilans dont la rentabilité reste à définir. Matériel et Méthodes. Dans le registre lausannois des AVC, nous nous sommes intéressés de façon rétrospective aux dossiers des patients hospitalisés entre 1979 et 2001 pour un premier AVC ischémique artériel, dont la cause a été attribuée à une pathologie hématologique. Sur 4 697 patients, 22 (0,47 p. 100) ont vu leur AVC imputé à l'une des causes hématologiques suivantes : maladie de Vaquez , polyglobulie secondaire , thrombocytémie essentielle , thrombocytose secondaire , myélome multiple , MD , déficit en protéine S , syndrome anticorps antiphospholipides , hyperhomocystéinémie . Chaque hémopathie retrouvée a donné lieu à une revue de la littérature. Conclusion. À la lumière de ces données, nous concluons qu'une formule sanguine représente un bilan hématologique de dépistage suffisant pour l'immense majorité des patients hospitalisés pour un premier AVC artériel ischémique. Les recherches d'anticorps antiphospholipides, de thrombophilies héréditaires et d'hyperhomocystéinémie peuvent être limitées à des cas sélectionnés. SUMMARY Cerebral infarction of arterial origin and haematological causation: the Lausanne experience and a review of the literature. Introduction. Hematological diseases are seldom found as the etiology of ischemic strokes, but are frequently investigated by expensive laboratory tests after a first cerebral vascular event. Methods. In the Lausanne Stroke Registry, we retrospectively reviewed the cases of patients hospitalized between 1979 and 2001 for a first ischemic arterial stroke which was attributed to a hematological etiology. Of 4697 patients, 22 (0.47 per cent) had a stroke due to one of the following hematological pathology: polycythemia vera, secondary polycythemia, essential thrombocytemia, secondary thrombocytosis, multiple myeloma, CIVD, protein S deficiency, antiphospholipid antibody syndrome, moderate homocysteinemia. A literature review was undertaken for each hemopathy. Conclusion. In light of the results of these data, we concluded that a complete blood count provides sufficient hematological screening for the majority of patients hospitalized for an arterial stroke. The antiphospholipid antibody syndrome is a rare cause of cerebral infarction, which needs to be investigated in young patients, in cases of multiple or recurring stroke or in the presence of a typical history. Inherited thrombophilias are not a significant risk factor for arterial cerebral infarction and their investigation is only warranted for a sub-group of young patients with a cryptogenic stroke, in which group the prevalence is slightly increased. Moderate homocysteinemia must be considered as a cerebrovascular risk factor of minor importance, but potentially treatable by a substitution of vitamin B12, B 6 and folates. The efficacy of this substitution in the prevention of cardiovascular events needs yet to be demonstrated.

Determination and Evaluation of Alternative Methods for Managing and Controlling Highway-Related Dust Phase II—Demonstration Project, June 2005

The State of Iowa currently has approximately 69,000 miles of unpaved secondary roads. Due to the low traffic count on these unpaved o nts as ng e two dust ed d roads, paving with asphalt or Portland cement concrete is not economical. Therefore to reduce dust production, the use of dust suppressants has been utilized for decades. This study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of several widely used dust suppressants through quantitative field testing on two of Iowa’s most widely used secondary road surface treatments: crushed limestone rock and alluvial sand/gravel. These commercially available dust suppressants included: lignin sulfonate, calcium chloride, and soybean oil soapstock. These suppressants were applied to 1000 ft test sections on four unpaved roads in Story County, Iowa. Tduplicate field conditions, the suppressants were applied as a surface spray once in early June and again in late August or early September. The four unpaved roads included two with crushed limestone rock and two with alluvial sand/gravel surface treatmewell as high and low traffic counts. The effectiveness of the dust suppressants was evaluated by comparing the dust produced on treated and untreated test sections. Dust collection was scheduled for 1, 2, 4, 6, and 8 weeks after each application, for a total testiperiod of 16 weeks. Results of a cost analysis between annual dust suppressant application and biennial aggregate replacement indicated that the cost of the dust suppressant, its transportation, and application were relatively high when compared to that of thaggregate types. Therefore, the biennial aggregate replacement is considered more economical than annual dust suppressant application, although the application of annual dust suppressant reduced the cost of road maintenance by 75 %. Results of thecollection indicated that the lignin sulfonate suppressant outperformed calcium chloride and soybean oil soapstock on all four unpavroads, the effect of the suppressants on the alluvial sand/gravel surface treatment was less than that on the crushed limestone rock, the residual effects of all the products seem reasonably well after blading, and the combination of alluvial sand/gravel surface treatment anhigh traffic count caused dust reduction to decrease dramatically.

Efficacy of clarithromycin versus that of clindamycin for single-dose prophylaxis of experimental streptococcal endocarditis.

Clarithromycin is compared with clindamycin for single-dose prophylaxis of streptococcal endocarditis in rats. Human-like kinetics of the two antibiotics prevented endocarditis in animals challenged with both small and large amounts of bacterial inocula. Clarithromycin was marginally superior to clindamycin against small amounts of inocula. Clarithromycin may be considered for endocarditis chemoprophylaxis in human.

Cytotoxic effects of FGF2-saporin on bovine epithelial lens cells in vitro.

PURPOSE: To test the ability of two preparations of FGF2-saporin, either FGF2 chemically conjugated to saporin (FGF2-SAP) or genetically engineered FGF2-saporin (rFGF2-SAP) to inhibit the growth of bovine epithelial lens (BEL) cells in vitro when in solution and when immobilized on heparin surface-modified (HSM) polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) intraocular lenses (IOLs). METHOD: Bovine epithelial lens cells were incubated with various concentrations FGF2-saporin for as long as 4 days. The number of surviving cells was determined by counting the number of nuclei. Because FGF2 binds to heparin, FGF2-saporin was incubated with HSM PMMA IOLs; excess toxin was washed off, and the BEL cells were grown on the FGF2-saporin-treated IOLs (HSM and non-HSM) for 4 days. Cell density was determined by image analysis. RESULTS: Both FGF2-SAP and rFGF2-SAP were highly cytotoxic (nM range), with rFGF2-SAP 10 times less active than FGF2-SAP. FGF2-saporin bound to the surface of HSM IOLs and eluted by 2M NaCl retained its activity. Toxin bound to HSM IOLs killed more than 90% of the BEL cells placed on the IOL surface within 4 days. The ability of FGF2-saporin to prevent the growth of cells on the IOL surface was strictly dependent on the presence of heparin on the IOL. CONCLUSIONS: FGF2-saporin is bound to HSM PMMA IOLs and prevents the growth of epithelial cells on the surface of the lens.

A limited role for beta-selection during gamma delta T cell development.

T cells belong to two distinct lineages expressing either alpha beta or gamma delta TCR. During alpha beta T cell development, it is clearly established that productive rearrangement at the TCR beta locus in immature precursor cells leads to the expression of a pre-TCR complex. Signaling through the pre-TCR results in the selective proliferation and maturation of TCR beta+ cells, a process that is known as beta-selection. However, the potential role of beta-selection during gamma delta T cell development is controversial. Whereas PCR-RFLP and sequencing techniques have provided evidence for a bias toward in-frame VDJ beta rearrangements in gamma delta cells (consistent with beta-selection), gamma delta cells apparently develop normally in mice that are unable to assemble a pre-TCR complex due to a deficiency in TCR beta or pT alpha genes. In this report, we have directly addressed the physiologic significance of beta-selection during gamma delta cell development in normal mice by quantitating intracellular TCR beta protein in gamma delta cells and correlating its presence with cell cycle status. Our results indicate that beta-selection plays a significant (although limited) role in gamma delta cell development by selectively amplifying a minor subset of gamma delta precursor cells with productively rearranged TCR beta genes.

Tapiola-ryhmän Yhtiökokousjärjestelmä-ohjelmiston määrittely ja suunnittelu

Tässä insinöörityössä selvitettiin mahdollisuuksia parantaa Tapiola-ryhmän Yhtiökokousjärjestelmä-ohjelmiston ominaisuuksia ja tietoturvallisuutta. Järjestelmää käytetään Tapiola-ryhmän vakuutusyhtiöiden yhtiökokouksiin osallistuvien osakkaiden kirjaamiseen ja heidän äänten laskentaan. Tutkimuksen perusteella tehtiin järjestelmän määrittely ja suunnittelu, joiden tuloksena syntyivät toiminnallinen ja tekninen määrittelydokumentaatio, jotka toimivat pohjana uuden Yhtiökokousjärjestelmän toteutukselle. Työ tehtiin Tapiola-ryhmälle Tieto-Tapiola Oy:n tilauksesta. Työn alussa tutkittiin erilaisia mahdollisuuksia toteuttaa järjestelmän ohjelmisto- ja tietokanta-arkkitehtuuri, joiden perusteella määrittelyä ja suunnittelua alettiin toteuttaa. Tutkimuksen perusteella päädyttiin käyttämään Java SE -arkkitehtuuria sovelluksen toteutukseen ja SQL Server -tietokantaa järjestelmän tietovarastona. Valittuihin ratkaisuihin päädyttiin niiden hyvien tietoturvallisuus- ja kertakirjausominaisuuksien takia. Toiminnallisessa määrittelydokumentissa käydään läpi järjestelmälle asetettuja vaatimuksia ja kuvataan sen toiminnot, liiketoimintaluokkamalli, käyttöliittymä ja tulosteet. Lisäksi siinä otetaan kantaa järjestelmän käyttöympäristöön, ulkoisiin tietokantaliittymiin, käyttäjän tunnistautumiseen ja tietoturvallisuuteen sekä käydään läpi sen toiminta käyttäjien näkökulmasta. Toiminnallisen määrittelydokumentin pohjalta luotiin tekninen määrittelydokumentti. Siinä kuvataan järjestelmän ympäristö ja ohjelmisto- sekä tietokanta-arkkitehtuuri yleisellä tasolla. Tämän lisäksi järjestelmän arkkitehtuuria käydään myös tarkemmin läpi sekä kuvataan moduulit ja toiminnot niin tarkasti, että niiden perusteella voidaan toteuttaa koko järjestelmä. Työn tuloksena syntyivät kattava toiminnallinen ja tekninen määrittelydokumentaatio, joissa käydään läpi kaikki järjestelmän toteuttamiseen tarvittavat elementit sillä tarkkuudella, että järjestelmän toteuttaminen voidaan aloittaa.

The value of serum procalcitonin level for differentiation of infectious from noninfectious causes of fever after orthopaedic surgery.

BACKGROUND: Early diagnosis of postoperative orthopaedic infections is important in order to rapidly initiate adequate antimicrobial therapy. There are currently no reliable diagnostic markers to differentiate infectious from noninfectious causes of postoperative fever. We investigated the value of the serum procalcitonin level in febrile patients after orthopaedic surgery. METHODS: We prospectively evaluated 103 consecutive patients with new onset of fever within ten days after orthopaedic surgery. Fever episodes were classified by two independent investigators who were blinded to procalcitonin results as infectious or noninfectious origin. White blood-cell count, C-reactive protein level, and procalcitonin level were assessed on days 0, 1, and 3 of the postoperative fever. RESULTS: Infection was diagnosed in forty-five (44%) of 103 patients and involved the respiratory tract (eighteen patients), urinary tract (eighteen), joints (four), surgical site (two), bloodstream (two), and soft tissues (one). Unlike C-reactive protein levels and white blood-cell counts, procalcitonin values were significantly higher in patients with infection compared with patients without infection on the day of fever onset (p = 0.04), day 1 (p = 0.07), and day 3 (p = 0.003). Receiver-operating characteristics demonstrated that procalcitonin had the highest diagnostic accuracy, with a value of 0.62, 0.62, and 0.71 on days 0, 1, and 3, respectively. In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, procalcitonin was a significant predictor for postoperative infection on days 0, 1, and 3 of fever with an odds ratio of 2.3 (95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 4.4), 2.3 (95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 5.2), and 3.3 (95% confidence interval, 1.2 to 9.0), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Serum procalcitonin is a helpful diagnostic marker supporting clinical and microbiological findings for more reliable differentiation of infectious from noninfectious causes of fever after orthopaedic surgery.

Parameter estimation for the distribution of single cell lag times.

In Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment, it is vital to understand how lag times of individual cells are distributed over a bacterial population. Such identified distributions can be used to predict the time by which, in a growth-supporting environment, a few pathogenic cells can multiply to a poisoning concentration level. We model the lag time of a single cell, inoculated into a new environment, by the delay of the growth function characterizing the generated subpopulation. We introduce an easy-to-implement procedure, based on the method of moments, to estimate the parameters of the distribution of single cell lag times. The advantage of the method is especially apparent for cases where the initial number of cells is small and random, and the culture is detectable only in the exponential growth phase.

Rhumatologie. Une nouvelle option thérapeutique dans la prise en charge de l'inflammation chronique en rhumatologie: les inhibiteurs des janus kinases [A new therapeutical option for chronic inflammation in rheumatology: janus kinases inhibitors (JAK)].

In the last 15 years, the therapeutical options for the treatment of chronic inflammatory diseases in rheumatology have increased a lot. Nevertheless, some patients do not respond or respond partially to the current therapies--including to the biologics therapy. Tofacitinib (Xeljanz) is now on the Swiss market. It inhibits the JAK pathway. Tofacitinib--as monotherapy or with methotrexate--improves the control of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). In a comparative study, tofacitinib was as effective as adalimumab. Further, tofacitinib reduced structural damages in RA and is considered as an alternative, in case of non-response, to anti-TNF and probably to other biologics therapy. The side effects are upper respiratory tract and opportunist infections and tuberculosis. Blood count, lipids, kidney function, liver tests, CK and blood pressure have to be monitored.

Chylothorax in children: guidelines for diagnosis and management.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To establish guidelines for the diagnosis and management of chylothorax in children. DESIGN: Retrospective study. PATIENTS: Fifty-one patients with a diagnosis of chylothorax. Twelve patients were excluded because of incomplete data or incorrect diagnosis. The following parameters were analyzed: triglyceride level, total cell number, and lymphocyte percentage; amount of pleural effusion on day of diagnosis, day 5, and day 14; and total time of pleural effusion. Prospectively, the same parameters were analyzed in a control group of 10 patients with pleural drainage. INTERVENTION: Patients with chylothorax were treated primarily with fat-free oral nutrition; if chyle did not stop, total parenteral nutrition with total enteric rest was started. If conservative therapy was not successful, pleurodesis was performed. RESULTS: In children with chylothorax triglyceride, triglyceride content ranged from 0.56 to 26.6 mmol/L; all values except one were > 1.1 mmol/L. In 36 of 39 patients (92%), the cell count was > 1,000 cells/microL. In 33 of 39 patients (85%), lymphocytes were > 90%. In patients without chylothorax triglyceride, triglyceride levels ranged from 0.1 to 0.71 mmol/L (median, 0.38 mmol/L) and cell count was from 20 to 1400 cells/microL (median, 322 cells/microL), with a maximum of 60% lymphocytes. With fat-free nutrition, chyle disappeared in 29 of 39 patients. Five patients died, and five required pleurodesis. CONCLUSIONS: Pleural effusion in children is chyle when it contains > 1.1 mmol/L triglycerides (with oral fat intake) and has a total cell count > or 1,000 cells/microL, with a lymphocyte fraction > 80%. Chylous effusions usually last long; however, after 6 weeks, the majority of the effusions (29 of 39 patients) had ceased. Late surgical interventions reduce the number of thoracotomies substantially, but can lead to very long hospitalization times. Early surgical interventions (after < 3 weeks) lead to a high number of thoracotomies, but certainly reduce hospitalization time.

Evaluation of a Bridge Constructed using High Performance Steel, May 2006

Of the approximately 25,000 bridges in Iowa, 28% are classified as structurally deficient, functionally obsolete, or both. Because many Iowa bridges require repair or replacement with a relatively limited funding base, there is a need to develop new bridge materials that may lead to longer life spans and reduced life-cycle costs. In addition, new and effective methods for determining the condition of structures are needed to identify when the useful life has expired or other maintenance is needed. Due to its unique alloy blend, high-performance steel (HPS) has been shown to have improved weldability, weathering capabilities, and fracture toughness than conventional structural steels. Since the development of HPS in the mid-1990s, numerous bridges using HPS girders have been constructed, and many have been economically built. The East 12th Street Bridge, which replaced a deteriorated box girder bridge, is Iowa’s first bridge constructed using HPS girders. The new structure is a two-span bridge that crosses I-235 in Des Moines, Iowa, providing one lane of traffic in each direction. A remote, continuous, fiber-optic based structural health monitoring (SHM) system for the bridge was developed using off-the-shelf technologies. In the system, sensors strategically located on the bridge collect raw strain data and then transfer the data via wireless communication to a gateway system at a nearby secure facility. The data are integrated and converted to text files before being uploaded automatically to a website that provides live strain data and a live video stream. A data storage/processing system at the Bridge Engineering Center in Ames, Iowa, permanently stores and processes the data files. Several processes are performed to check the overall system’s operation, eliminate temperature effects from the complete strain record, compute the global behavior of the bridge, and count strain cycles at the various sensor locations.

Cancer risk in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: associations with immunodeficiency, smoking, and highly active antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: Persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have an increased risk for several cancers, but the influences of behavioral risk factors, such as smoking and intravenous drug use, and highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) on cancer risk are not clear. METHODS: Patient records were linked between the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and Swiss cantonal cancer registries. Observed and expected numbers of incident cancers were assessed in 7304 persons infected with HIV followed for 28,836 person-years. Relative risks for cancer compared with those for the general population were determined by estimating cancer registry-, sex-, age-, and period-standardized incidence ratios (SIRs). RESULTS: Highly elevated SIRs were confirmed in persons infected with HIV for Kaposi sarcoma (KS) (SIR = 192, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 170 to 217) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR = 76.4, 95% CI = 66.5 to 87.4). Statistically significantly elevated SIRs were also observed for anal cancer (SIR = 33.4, 95% CI = 10.5 to 78.6); Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR = 17.3, 95% CI = 10.2 to 27.4); cancers of the cervix (SIR = 8.0, 95% CI = 2.9 to 17.4); liver (SIR = 7.0, 95% CI = 2.2 to 16.5); lip, mouth, and pharynx (SIR = 4.1, 95% CI = 2.1 to 7.4); trachea, lung, and bronchus (SIR = 3.2, 95% CI = 1.7 to 5.4); and skin, nonmelanomatous (SIR = 3.2, 95% CI = 2.2 to 4.5). In HAART users, SIRs for KS (SIR = 25.3, 95% CI = 10.8 to 50.1) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR = 24.2, 95% CI = 15.0 to 37.1) were lower than those for nonusers (KS SIR = 239, 95% CI = 211 to 270; non-Hodgkin lymphoma SIR = 99.3, 95% CI = 85.8 to 114). Among HAART users, however, the SIR (although not absolute numbers) for Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR = 36.2, 95% CI = 16.4 to 68.9) was comparable to that for KS and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. No clear impact of HAART on SIRs emerged for cervical cancer or non-acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-defining cancers. Cancers of the lung, lip, mouth, or pharynx were not observed among nonsmokers. CONCLUSION: In persons infected with HIV, HAART use may prevent most excess risk of KS and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, but not that of Hodgkin lymphoma and other non-acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-defining cancers. No cancers of the lip, mouth, pharynx, or lung were observed in nonsmokers.

Rules of origin : from analysis to reform

General Introduction This thesis can be divided into two main parts :the first one, corresponding to the first three chapters, studies Rules of Origin (RoOs) in Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs); the second part -the fourth chapter- is concerned with Anti-Dumping (AD) measures. Despite wide-ranging preferential access granted to developing countries by industrial ones under North-South Trade Agreements -whether reciprocal, like the Europe Agreements (EAs) or NAFTA, or not, such as the GSP, AGOA, or EBA-, it has been claimed that the benefits from improved market access keep falling short of the full potential benefits. RoOs are largely regarded as a primary cause of the under-utilization of improved market access of PTAs. RoOs are the rules that determine the eligibility of goods to preferential treatment. Their economic justification is to prevent trade deflection, i.e. to prevent non-preferred exporters from using the tariff preferences. However, they are complex, cost raising and cumbersome, and can be manipulated by organised special interest groups. As a result, RoOs can restrain trade beyond what it is needed to prevent trade deflection and hence restrict market access in a statistically significant and quantitatively large proportion. Part l In order to further our understanding of the effects of RoOs in PTAs, the first chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot, Celine Carrère and Pr. Jaime de Melo, describes and evaluates the RoOs governing EU and US PTAs. It draws on utilization-rate data for Mexican exports to the US in 2001 and on similar data for ACP exports to the EU in 2002. The paper makes two contributions. First, we construct an R-index of restrictiveness of RoOs along the lines first proposed by Estevadeordal (2000) for NAFTA, modifying it and extending it for the EU's single-list (SL). This synthetic R-index is then used to compare Roos under NAFTA and PANEURO. The two main findings of the chapter are as follows. First, it shows, in the case of PANEURO, that the R-index is useful to summarize how countries are differently affected by the same set of RoOs because of their different export baskets to the EU. Second, it is shown that the Rindex is a relatively reliable statistic in the sense that, subject to caveats, after controlling for the extent of tariff preference at the tariff-line level, it accounts for differences in utilization rates at the tariff line level. Finally, together with utilization rates, the index can be used to estimate total compliance costs of RoOs. The second chapter proposes a reform of preferential Roos with the aim of making them more transparent and less discriminatory. Such a reform would make preferential blocs more "cross-compatible" and would therefore facilitate cumulation. It would also contribute to move regionalism toward more openness and hence to make it more compatible with the multilateral trading system. It focuses on NAFTA, one of the most restrictive FTAs (see Estevadeordal and Suominen 2006), and proposes a way forward that is close in spirit to what the EU Commission is considering for the PANEURO system. In a nutshell, the idea is to replace the current array of RoOs by a single instrument- Maximum Foreign Content (MFC). An MFC is a conceptually clear and transparent instrument, like a tariff. Therefore changing all instruments into an MFC would bring improved transparency pretty much like the "tariffication" of NTBs. The methodology for this exercise is as follows: In step 1, I estimate the relationship between utilization rates, tariff preferences and RoOs. In step 2, I retrieve the estimates and invert the relationship to get a simulated MFC that gives, line by line, the same utilization rate as the old array of Roos. In step 3, I calculate the trade-weighted average of the simulated MFC across all lines to get an overall equivalent of the current system and explore the possibility of setting this unique instrument at a uniform rate across lines. This would have two advantages. First, like a uniform tariff, a uniform MFC would make it difficult for lobbies to manipulate the instrument at the margin. This argument is standard in the political-economy literature and has been used time and again in support of reductions in the variance of tariffs (together with standard welfare considerations). Second, uniformity across lines is the only way to eliminate the indirect source of discrimination alluded to earlier. Only if two countries face uniform RoOs and tariff preference will they face uniform incentives irrespective of their initial export structure. The result of this exercise is striking: the average simulated MFC is 25% of good value, a very low (i.e. restrictive) level, confirming Estevadeordal and Suominen's critical assessment of NAFTA's RoOs. Adopting a uniform MFC would imply a relaxation from the benchmark level for sectors like chemicals or textiles & apparel, and a stiffening for wood products, papers and base metals. Overall, however, the changes are not drastic, suggesting perhaps only moderate resistance to change from special interests. The third chapter of the thesis considers whether Europe Agreements of the EU, with the current sets of RoOs, could be the potential model for future EU-centered PTAs. First, I have studied and coded at the six-digit level of the Harmonised System (HS) .both the old RoOs -used before 1997- and the "Single list" Roos -used since 1997. Second, using a Constant Elasticity Transformation function where CEEC exporters smoothly mix sales between the EU and the rest of the world by comparing producer prices on each market, I have estimated the trade effects of the EU RoOs. The estimates suggest that much of the market access conferred by the EAs -outside sensitive sectors- was undone by the cost-raising effects of RoOs. The chapter also contains an analysis of the evolution of the CEECs' trade with the EU from post-communism to accession. Part II The last chapter of the thesis is concerned with anti-dumping, another trade-policy instrument having the effect of reducing market access. In 1995, the Uruguay Round introduced in the Anti-Dumping Agreement (ADA) a mandatory "sunset-review" clause (Article 11.3 ADA) under which anti-dumping measures should be reviewed no later than five years from their imposition and terminated unless there was a serious risk of resumption of injurious dumping. The last chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot and Pr. Jaime de Melo, uses a new database on Anti-Dumping (AD) measures worldwide to assess whether the sunset-review agreement had any effect. The question we address is whether the WTO Agreement succeeded in imposing the discipline of a five-year cycle on AD measures and, ultimately, in curbing their length. Two methods are used; count data analysis and survival analysis. First, using Poisson and Negative Binomial regressions, the count of AD measures' revocations is regressed on (inter alia) the count of "initiations" lagged five years. The analysis yields a coefficient on measures' initiations lagged five years that is larger and more precisely estimated after the agreement than before, suggesting some effect. However the coefficient estimate is nowhere near the value that would give a one-for-one relationship between initiations and revocations after five years. We also find that (i) if the agreement affected EU AD practices, the effect went the wrong way, the five-year cycle being quantitatively weaker after the agreement than before; (ii) the agreement had no visible effect on the United States except for aone-time peak in 2000, suggesting a mopping-up of old cases. Second, the survival analysis of AD measures around the world suggests a shortening of their expected lifetime after the agreement, and this shortening effect (a downward shift in the survival function postagreement) was larger and more significant for measures targeted at WTO members than for those targeted at non-members (for which WTO disciplines do not bind), suggesting that compliance was de jure. A difference-in-differences Cox regression confirms this diagnosis: controlling for the countries imposing the measures, for the investigated countries and for the products' sector, we find a larger increase in the hazard rate of AD measures covered by the Agreement than for other measures.

Measures of fit in multiple correspondence analysis of crisp and fuzzy coded data

When continuous data are coded to categorical variables, two types of coding are possible: crisp coding in the form of indicator, or dummy, variables with values either 0 or 1; or fuzzy coding where each observation is transformed to a set of "degrees of membership" between 0 and 1, using co-called membership functions. It is well known that the correspondence analysis of crisp coded data, namely multiple correspondence analysis, yields principal inertias (eigenvalues) that considerably underestimate the quality of the solution in a low-dimensional space. Since the crisp data only code the categories to which each individual case belongs, an alternative measure of fit is simply to count how well these categories are predicted by the solution. Another approach is to consider multiple correspondence analysis equivalently as the analysis of the Burt matrix (i.e., the matrix of all two-way cross-tabulations of the categorical variables), and then perform a joint correspondence analysis to fit just the off-diagonal tables of the Burt matrix - the measure of fit is then computed as the quality of explaining these tables only. The correspondence analysis of fuzzy coded data, called "fuzzy multiple correspondence analysis", suffers from the same problem, albeit attenuated. Again, one can count how many correct predictions are made of the categories which have highest degree of membership. But here one can also defuzzify the results of the analysis to obtain estimated values of the original data, and then calculate a measure of fit in the familiar percentage form, thanks to the resultant orthogonal decomposition of variance. Furthermore, if one thinks of fuzzy multiple correspondence analysis as explaining the two-way associations between variables, a fuzzy Burt matrix can be computed and the same strategy as in the crisp case can be applied to analyse the off-diagonal part of this matrix. In this paper these alternative measures of fit are defined and applied to a data set of continuous meteorological variables, which are coded crisply and fuzzily into three categories. Measuring the fit is further discussed when the data set consists of a mixture of discrete and continuous variables.