Integrating control systems defined on the frame bundles of the space forms

This paper considers left-invariant control systems defined on the orthonormal frame bundles of simply connected manifolds of constant sectional curvature, namely the space forms Euclidean space E-3, the sphere S-3 and Hyperboloid H-3 with the corresponding frame bundles equal to the Euclidean group of motions SE(3), the rotation group SO(4) and the Lorentz group SO(1, 3). Orthonormal frame bundles of space forms coincide with their isometry groups and therefore the focus shifts to left-invariant control systems defined on Lie groups. In this paper a method for integrating these systems is given where the controls are time-independent. In the Euclidean case the elements of the Lie algebra se(3) are often referred to as twists. For constant twist motions, the corresponding curves g(t) is an element of SE(3) are known as screw motions, given in closed form by using the well known Rodrigues' formula. However, this formula is only applicable to the Euclidean case. This paper gives a method for computing the non-Euclidean screw motions in closed form. This involves decoupling the system into two lower dimensional systems using the double cover properties of Lie groups, then the lower dimensional systems are solved explicitly in closed form.

The global atmospheric electrical circuit and climate

Evidence is emerging for physical links among clouds, global temperatures, the global atmospheric electrical circuit and cosmic ray ionisation. The global circuit extends throughout the atmosphere from the planetary surface to the lower layers of the ionosphere. Cosmic rays are the principal source of atmospheric ions away from the continental boundary layer: the ions formed permit a vertical conduction current to flow in the fair weather part of the global circuit. Through the (inverse) solar modulation of cosmic rays, the resulting columnar ionisation changes may allow the global circuit to convey a solar influence to meteorological phenomena of the lower atmosphere. Electrical effects on non-thunderstorm clouds have been proposed to occur via the ion-assisted formation of ultra-fine aerosol, which can grow to sizes able to act as cloud condensation nuclei, or through the increased ice nucleation capability of charged aerosols. Even small atmospheric electrical modulations on the aerosol size distribution can affect cloud properties and modify the radiative balance of the atmosphere, through changes communicated globally by the atmospheric electrical circuit. Despite a long history of work in related areas of geophysics, the direct and inverse relationships between the global circuit and global climate remain largely quantitatively unexplored. From reviewing atmospheric electrical measurements made over two centuries and possible paleoclimate proxies, global atmospheric electrical circuit variability should be expected on many timescales

Mapping the human record in the British early Palaeolithic: evidence from the Solent River system

The lithic record from the Solent River and its tributaries is re-examined in the light of recent interpretations about the changing demography of Britain during the Lower and early Middle Palaeolithic. Existing models of the terrace stratigraphies in the Solent and its tributary areas are reviewed and the corresponding archaeological record (specifically handaxes) for each terrace is assessed to provide models for the relative changes in human occupation through time. The Bournemouth area is studied in detail to examine the effects of quarrying and urbanisation on collection history and on the biases it introduces to the record. In addition, the effects of reworking of artefacts from higher into lower terraces are assessed, and shown to be a significant problem. Although there is very little absolute dating available for the Solent area, a cautious interpretation of the results from these analyses would suggest a pre-Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 12 date for the first appearance of humans, a peak in population between MIS 12 and 10, and a decline in population during MIS 9 and 8. Owing to poor contextual data and small sample sizes, it is not clear when Levallois technology was introduced. This record is compared and contrasted to that from the Thames Valley. It is suggested that changes in the palaeogeography of Britain, in particular land connections to the continent, might have contributed to differences in the archaeological records from the Solent and Thames regions.

The unsung heroes

This paper explores the roles played by local collectors, often little-known or rarely remembered, in the compilation of Britain’s Earlier (Lower and early Middle) Palaeolithic record, with reference to the work of C.E. (Charles) Bean at the Lower Palaeolithic site of Broom, and the activities of George Smith and Llewellyn and Mabel Treacher in the Middle Thames Valley. Their collecting practices, publication records, and archaeological knowledge and insights are reviewed, and their impacts assessed with reference to the activities of other contemporary collectors, and the regional archaeological records of the south-west and the Middle Thames. Their archives demonstrate that while the key sites and artefact assemblages sampled by Bean, Smith and the Treachers would not otherwise have been unknown, their work left important legacies in terms of rich artefact assemblages, site archives (Bean), and the long-term monitoring of key sites and fluvial terraces.

Coupled chemistry climate model simulations of stratospheric temperatures and their trends for the recent past

Temperature results from multi-decadal simulations of coupled chemistry climate models for the recent past are analyzed using multi-linear regression including a trend, solar cycle, lower stratospheric tropical wind, and volcanic aerosol terms. The climatology of the models for recent years is in good agreement with observations for the troposphere but the model results diverge from each other and from observations in the stratosphere. Overall, the models agree better with observations than in previous assessments, primarily because of corrections in the observed temperatures. The annually averaged global and polar temperature trends simulated by the models are generally in agreement with revised satellite observations and radiosonde data over much of their altitude range. In the global average, the model trends underpredict the radiosonde data slightly at the top of the observed range. Over the Antarctic some models underpredict the temperature trend in the lower stratosphere, while others overpredict the trends

The climatology of the middle atmosphere in a vertically extended version of the Met Office's climate model. Part I: mean state

The climatology of a stratosphere-resolving version of the Met Office’s climate model is studied and validated against ECMWF reanalysis data. Ensemble integrations are carried out at two different horizontal resolutions. Along with a realistic climatology and annual cycle in zonal mean zonal wind and temperature, several physical effects are noted in the model. The time of final warming of the winter polar vortex is found to descend monotonically in the Southern Hemisphere, as would be expected for purely radiative forcing. In the Northern Hemisphere, however, the time of final warming is driven largely by dynamical effects in the lower stratosphere and radiative effects in the upper stratosphere, leading to the earliest transition to westward winds being seen in the midstratosphere. A realistic annual cycle in stratospheric water vapor concentrations—the tropical “tape recorder”—is captured. Tropical variability in the zonal mean zonal wind is found to be in better agreement with the reanalysis for the model run at higher horizontal resolution because the simulated quasi-biennial oscillation has a more realistic amplitude. Unexpectedly, variability in the extratropics becomes less realistic under increased resolution because of reduced resolved wave drag and increased orographic gravity wave drag. Overall, the differences in climatology between the simulations at high and moderate horizontal resolution are found to be small.

Activation of lower back muscles via FES for pressure sores prevention in paraplegia: a case study

The aim of this paper is to show the feasibility of the use of functional electrical stimulation (FES) applied to the lower back muscles for pressure sores prevention in paraplegia. The hypothesis under study is that FES induces a change in the pressure distribution on the contact area during sitting. Tests were conducted on a paraplegic subject (T5), sitting on a standard wheelchair and cushion. Trunk extensors (mainly the erector spinae) were stimulated using surface electrodes placed on the skin. A pressure mapping system was used to measure the pressure on the sitting surface in four situations: (a) no stimulation; (b) stimulation on one side of the spine only; (c) stimulation on both sides, at different levels; and (d) stimulation at the same level on both sides, during pressure-relief manoeuvres. A session of prolonged stimulation was also conducted. The experimental results show that the stimulation of the erector spinae on one side of the spine can induce a trunk rotation on the sagittal plane, which causes a change in the pressure distribution. A decrease of pressure on the side opposite to the stimulation was recorded. The phenomenon is intensified when different levels of stimulation are applied to the two sides, and such change can be sustained for a considerable time (around 5 minutes). The stimulation did not induce changes during pressure-relief manoeuvres. Finally, from this research we can conclude that the stimulation of the trunk extensors can be a useful tool for pressure sores prevention, and can potentially be used in a routine for pressure sores prevention based on periodical weight shifts.

Chemical and aerosol characterisation of the troposphere over West Africa during the monsoon period as part of AMMA

During June, July and August 2006 five aircraft took part in a campaign over West Africa to observe the aerosol content and chemical composition of the troposphere and lower stratosphere as part of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) project. These are the first such measurements in this region during the monsoon period. In addition to providing an overview of the tropospheric composition, this paper provides a description of the measurement strategy (flights performed, instrumental payloads, wing-tip to wing-tip comparisons) and points to some of the important findings discussed in more detail in other papers in this special issue. The ozone data exhibits an "S" shaped vertical profile which appears to result from significant losses in the lower troposphere due to rapid deposition to forested areas and photochemical destruction in the moist monsoon air, and convective uplift of ozone-poor air to the upper troposphere. This profile is disturbed, particularly in the south of the region, by the intrusions in the lower and middle troposphere of air from the southern hemisphere impacted by biomass burning. Comparisons with longer term data sets suggest the impact of these intrusions on West Africa in 2006 was greater than in other recent wet seasons. There is evidence for net photochemical production of ozone in these biomass burning plumes as well as in urban plumes, in particular that from Lagos, convective outflow in the upper troposphere and in boundary layer air affected by nitrogen oxide emissions from recently wetted soils. This latter effect, along with enhanced deposition to the forested areas, contributes to a latitudinal gradient of ozone in the lower troposphere. Biogenic volatile organic compounds are also important in defining the composition both for the boundary layer and upper tropospheric convective outflow. Mineral dust was found to be the most abundant and ubiquitous aerosol type in the atmosphere over Western Africa. Data collected within AMMA indicate that injection of dust to altitudes favourable for long-range transport (i.e. in the upper Sahelian planetary boundary layer) can occur behind the leading edge of mesoscale convective system (MCS) cold-pools. Research within AMMA also provides the first estimates of secondary organic aerosols across the West African Sahel and have shown that organic mass loadings vary between 0 and 2 μg m−3 with a median concentration of 1.07 μg m−3. The vertical distribution of nucleation mode particle concentrations reveals that significant and fairly strong particle formation events did occur for a considerable fraction of measurement time above 8 km (and only there). Very low concentrations were observed in general in the fresh outflow of active MCSs, likely as the result of efficient wet removal of aerosol particles due to heavy precipitation inside the convective cells of the MCSs. This wet removal initially affects all particle size ranges as clearly shown by all measurements in the vicinity of MCSs.

Transport in the low-latitude tropopause zone diagnosed using particle trajectories

Recent literature has described a “transition zone” between the average top of deep convection in the Tropics and the stratosphere. Here transport across this zone is investigated using an offline trajectory model. Particles were advected by the resolved winds from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses. For each boreal winter clusters of particles were released in the upper troposphere over the four main regions of tropical deep convection (Indonesia, central Pacific, South America, and Africa). Most particles remain in the troposphere, descending on average for every cluster. The horizontal components of 5-day trajectories are strongly influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but the Lagrangian average descent does not have a clear ENSO signature. Tropopause crossing locations are first identified by recording events when trajectories from the same release regions cross the World Meteorological Organization lapse rate tropopause. Most crossing events occur 5–15 days after release, and 30-day trajectories are sufficiently long to estimate crossing number densities. In a further two experiments slight excursions across the lapse rate tropopause are differentiated from the drift deeper into the stratosphere by defining the “tropopause zone” as a layer bounded by the average potential temperature of the lapse rate tropopause and the profile temperature minimum. Transport upward across this zone is studied using forward trajectories released from the lower bound and back trajectories arriving at the upper bound. Histograms of particle potential temperature (θ) show marked differences between the transition zone, where there is a slow spread in θ values about a peak that shifts slowly upward, and the troposphere below 350 K. There forward trajectories experience slow radiative cooling interspersed with bursts of convective heating resulting in a well-mixed distribution. In contrast θ histograms for back trajectories arriving in the stratosphere have two distinct peaks just above 300 and 350 K, indicating the sharp change from rapid convective heating in the well-mixed troposphere to slow ascent in the transition zone. Although trajectories slowly cross the tropopause zone throughout the Tropics, all three experiments show that most trajectories reaching the stratosphere from the lower troposphere within 30 days do so over the west Pacific warm pool. This preferred location moves about 30°–50° farther east in an El Niño year (1982/83) and about 30° farther west in a La Niña year (1988/89). These results could have important implications for upper-troposphere–lower-stratosphere pollution and chemistry studies.

Report of the 2010 assessment of the scientific assessment panel: future ozone and its impact on surface UV

SCIENTIFIC SUMMARY Globally averaged total column ozone has declined over recent decades due to the release of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) into the atmosphere. Now, as a result of the Montreal Protocol, ozone is expected to recover from the effects of ODSs as ODS abundances decline in the coming decades. However, a number of factors in addition to ODSs have led to and will continue to lead to changes in ozone. Discriminating between the causes of past and projected ozone changes is necessary, not only to identify the progress in ozone recovery from ODSs, but also to evaluate the effectiveness of climate and ozone protection policy options. Factors Affecting Future Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation • At least for the next few decades, the decline of ODSs is expected to be the major factor affecting the anticipated increase in global total column ozone. However, several factors other than ODS will affect the future evolution of ozone in the stratosphere. These include changes in (i) stratospheric circulation and temperature due to changes in long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) abundances, (ii) stratospheric aerosol loading, and (iii) source gases of highly reactive stratospheric hydrogen and nitrogen compounds. Factors that amplify the effects of ODSs on ozone (e.g., stratospheric aerosols) will likely decline in importance as ODSs are gradually eliminated from the atmosphere. • Increases in GHG emissions can both positively and negatively affect ozone. Carbon dioxide (CO2)-induced stratospheric cooling elevates middle and upper stratospheric ozone and decreases the time taken for ozone to return to 1980 levels, while projected GHG-induced increases in tropical upwelling decrease ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and increase ozone in the extratropics. Increases in nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) concentrations also directly impact ozone chemistry but the effects are different in different regions. • The Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is projected to strengthen over the 21st century and thereby affect ozone amounts. Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the BDC or, more specifically, of the upwelling mass flux in the tropical lower stratosphere of around 2% per decade as a consequence of GHG abundance increases. A stronger BDC would decrease the abundance of tropical lower stratospheric ozone, increase poleward transport of ozone, and could reduce the atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived ODSs and other trace gases. While simulations showing faster ascent in the tropical lower stratosphere to date are a robust feature of chemistry-climate models (CCMs), this has not been confirmed by observations and the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. • Substantial ozone losses could occur if stratospheric aerosol loading were to increase in the next few decades, while halogen levels are high. Stratospheric aerosol increases may be caused by sulfur contained in volcanic plumes entering the stratosphere or from human activities. The latter might include attempts to geoengineer the climate system by enhancing the stratospheric aerosol layer. The ozone losses mostly result from enhanced heterogeneous chemistry on stratospheric aerosols. Enhanced aerosol heating within the stratosphere also leads to changes in temperature and circulation that affect ozone. • Surface ultraviolet (UV) levels will not be affected solely by ozone changes but also by the effects of climate change and by air quality change in the troposphere. These tropospheric effects include changes in clouds, tropospheric aerosols, surface reflectivity, and tropospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The uncertainties in projections of these factors are large. Projected increases in tropospheric ozone are more certain and may lead to reductions in surface erythemal (“sunburning”) irradiance of up to 10% by 2100. Changes in clouds may lead to decreases or increases in surface erythemal irradiance of up to 15% depending on latitude. Expected Future Changes in Ozone Full ozone recovery from the effects of ODSs and return of ozone to historical levels are not synonymous. In this chapter a key target date is chosen to be 1980, in part to retain the connection to previous Ozone Assessments. Noting, however, that decreases in ozone may have occurred in some regions of the atmosphere prior to 1980, 1960 return dates are also reported. The projections reported on in this chapter are taken from a recent compilation of CCM simulations. The ozone projections, which also form the basis for the UV projections, are limited in their representativeness of possible futures since they mostly come from CCM simulations based on a single GHG emissions scenario (scenario A1B of Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2000) and a single ODS emissions scenario (adjusted A1 of the previous (2006) Ozone Assessment). Throughout this century, the vertical, latitudinal, and seasonal structure of the ozone distribution will be different from what it was in 1980. For this reason, ozone changes in different regions of the atmosphere are considered separately. • The projections of changes in ozone and surface clear-sky UV are broadly consistent with those reported on in the 2006 Assessment. • The capability of making projections and attribution of future ozone changes has been improved since the 2006 Assessment. Use of CCM simulations from an increased number of models extending through the entire period of ozone depletion and recovery from ODSs (1960–2100) as well as sensitivity simulations have allowed more robust projections of long-term changes in the stratosphere and of the relative contributions of ODSs and GHGs to those changes. • Global annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels before the middle of the century and earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading returns to 1980 levels. CCM projections suggest that this early return is primarily a result of GHG-induced cooling of the upper stratosphere because the effects of circulation changes on tropical and extratropical ozone largely cancel. Global (90°S–90°N) annually averaged total column ozone will likely return to 1980 levels between 2025 and 2040, well before the return of stratospheric halogens to 1980 levels between 2045 and 2060. • Simulated changes in tropical total column ozone from 1960 to 2100 are generally small. The evolution of tropical total column ozone in models depends on the balance between upper stratospheric increases and lower stratospheric decreases. The upper stratospheric increases result from declining ODSs and a slowing of ozone destruction resulting from GHG-induced cooling. Ozone decreases in the lower stratosphere mainly result from an increase in tropical upwelling. From 1960 until around 2000, a general decline is simulated, followed by a gradual increase to values typical of 1980 by midcentury. Thereafter, although total column ozone amounts decline slightly again toward the end of the century, by 2080 they are no longer expected to be affected by ODSs. Confidence in tropical ozone projections is compromised by the fact that simulated decreases in column ozone to date are not supported by observations, suggesting that significant uncertainties remain. • Midlatitude total column ozone is simulated to evolve differently in the two hemispheres. Over northern midlatitudes, annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values between 2015 and 2030, while for southern midlatitudes the return to 1980 values is projected to occur between 2030 and 2040. The more rapid return to 1980 values in northern midlatitudes is linked to a more pronounced strengthening of the poleward transport of ozone due to the effects of increased GHG levels, and effects of Antarctic ozone depletion on southern midlatitudes. By 2100, midlatitude total column ozone is projected to be above 1980 values in both hemispheres. • October-mean Antarctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels after midcentury, later than in any other region, and yet earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to 1980 levels. The slightly earlier return of ozone to 1980 levels (2045–2060) results primarily from upper stratospheric cooling and resultant increases in ozone. The return of polar halogen loading to 1980 levels (2050–2070) in CCMs is earlier than in empirical models that exclude the effects of GHG-induced changes in circulation. Our confidence in the drivers of changes in Antarctic ozone is higher than for other regions because (i) ODSs exert a strong influence on Antarctic ozone, (ii) the effects of changes in GHG abundances are comparatively small, and (iii) projections of ODS emissions are more certain than those for GHGs. Small Antarctic ozone holes (areas of ozone <220 Dobson units, DU) could persist to the end of the 21st century. • March-mean Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels two to three decades before polar halogen loading returns to 1980 levels, and to exceed 1980 levels thereafter. While CCM simulations project a return to 1980 levels between 2020 and 2035, most models tend not to capture observed low temperatures and thus underestimate present-day Arctic ozone loss such that it is possible that this return date is biased early. Since the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation through the 21st century leads to increases in springtime Arctic column ozone, by 2100 Arctic ozone is projected to lie well above 1960 levels. Uncertainties in Projections • Conclusions dependent on future GHG levels are less certain than those dependent on future ODS levels since ODS emissions are controlled by the Montreal Protocol. For the six GHG scenarios considered by a few CCMs, the simulated differences in stratospheric column ozone over the second half of the 21st century are largest in the northern midlatitudes and the Arctic, with maximum differences of 20–40 DU between the six scenarios in 2100. • There remain sources of uncertainty in the CCM simulations. These include the use of prescribed ODS mixing ratios instead of emission fluxes as lower boundary conditions, the range of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, missing tropospheric chemistry, model parameterizations, and model climate sensitivity. • Geoengineering schemes for mitigating climate change by continuous injections of sulfur-containing compounds into the stratosphere, if implemented, would substantially affect stratospheric ozone, particularly in polar regions. Ozone losses observed following large volcanic eruptions support this prediction. However, sporadic volcanic eruptions provide limited analogs to the effects of continuous sulfur emissions. Preliminary model simulations reveal large uncertainties in assessing the effects of continuous sulfur injections. Expected Future Changes in Surface UV. While a number of factors, in addition to ozone, affect surface UV irradiance, the focus in this chapter is on the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on surface UV. For this reason, clear-sky surface UV irradiance is calculated from ozone projections from CCMs. • Projected increases in midlatitude ozone abundances during the 21st century, in the absence of changes in other factors, in particular clouds, tropospheric aerosols, and air pollutants, will result in decreases in surface UV irradiance. Clear-sky erythemal irradiance is projected to return to 1980 levels on average in 2025 for the northern midlatitudes, and in 2035 for the southern midlatitudes, and to fall well below 1980 values by the second half of the century. However, actual changes in surface UV will be affected by a number of factors other than ozone. • In the absence of changes in other factors, changes in tropical surface UV will be small because changes in tropical total column ozone are projected to be small. By the middle of the 21st century, the model projections suggest surface UV to be slightly higher than in the 1960s, very close to values in 1980, and slightly lower than in 2000. The projected decrease in tropical total column ozone through the latter half of the century will likely result in clear-sky surface UV remaining above 1960 levels. Average UV irradiance is already high in the tropics due to naturally occurring low total ozone columns and high solar elevations. • The magnitude of UV changes in the polar regions is larger than elsewhere because ozone changes in polar regions are larger. For the next decades, surface clear-sky UV irradiance, particularly in the Antarctic, will continue to be higher than in 1980. Future increases in ozone and decreases in clear-sky UV will occur at slower rates than those associated with the ozone decreases and UV increases that occurred before 2000. In Antarctica, surface clear-sky UV is projected to return to 1980 levels between 2040 and 2060, while in the Arctic this is projected to occur between 2020 and 2030. By 2100, October surface clear-sky erythemal irradiance in Antarctica is likely to be between 5% below to 25% above 1960 levels, with considerable uncertainty. This is consistent with multi-model-mean October Antarctic total column ozone not returning to 1960 levels by 2100. In contrast, by 2100, surface clear-sky UV in the Arctic is projected to be 0–10% below 1960 levels.

Lightning-induced intensification of the ionospheric sporadic E layer

A connection between thunderstorms and the ionosphere has been hypothesized since the mid-1920s(1). Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain this connection(2-7), and evidence from modelling(8) as well as various types of measurements(9-14) demonstrate that lightning can interact with the lower ionosphere. It has been proposed, on the basis of a few observed events(15), that the ionospheric 'sporadic E' layer - transient, localized patches of relatively high electron density in the mid-ionosphere E layer, which significantly affect radio-wave propagation - can be modulated by thunderstorms, but a more formal statistical analysis is still needed. Here we identify a statistically significant intensification and descent in altitude of the mid-latitude sporadic E layer directly above thunderstorms. Because no ionospheric response to low-pressure systems without lightning is detected, we conclude that this localized intensification of the sporadic E layer can be attributed to lightning. We suggest that the co-location of lightning and ionospheric enhancement can be explained by either vertically propagating gravity waves that transfer energy from the site of lightning into the ionosphere, or vertical electrical discharge, or by a combination of these two mechanisms.

The power of NMR. Part 1: the beginnings

Nuclear mnagnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy involves the excitation of nuclei by electromagnetic radiation in the radio-frequency range of the electromagnetic spectrum. For a nucleus to absorb energy from radiowaves in this way, it must hve the quantum mechanical property of spin. A spinning nucleus, such as that of the hydrogen atom, will dopt one f only two possible states when placed in a magnetic field. (In NMR, the hydrogen nucleus is often referred to as a proton, and is given the abbreviation 1H.) Az the strength of the magnetic field is increased, there is a proportional increase in the energy 'gap' between these two states. We can predic the resonant frequency at which any spinning nucleus will absorb energy from radio-frequency radiation as it jumps from the lower energy state to the upper state.

Multimodel climate and variability of the stratosphere

The stratospheric climate and variability from simulations of sixteen chemistry‐climate models is evaluated. On average the polar night jet is well reproduced though its variability is less well reproduced with a large spread between models. Polar temperature biases are less than 5 K except in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) lower stratosphere in spring. The accumulated area of low temperatures responsible for polar stratospheric cloud formation is accurately reproduced for the Antarctic but underestimated for the Arctic. The shape and position of the polar vortex is well simulated, as is the tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere. There is a wide model spread in the frequency of major sudden stratospheric warnings (SSWs), late biases in the breakup of the SH vortex, and a weak annual cycle in the zonal wind in the tropical upper stratosphere. Quantitatively, “metrics” indicate a wide spread in model performance for most diagnostics with systematic biases in many, and poorer performance in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Correlations were found in the SH between errors in the final warming, polar temperatures, the leading mode of variability, and jet strength, and in the NH between errors in polar temperatures, frequency of major SSWs, and jet strength. Models with a stronger QBO have stronger tropical upwelling and a colder NH vortex. Both the qualitative and quantitative analysis indicate a number of common and long‐standing model problems, particularly related to the simulation of the SH and stratospheric variability.

On the evaluation of temperature trends in the tropical troposphere

A series of model experiments with the coupled Max-Planck-Institute ECHAM5/OM climate model have been investigated and compared with microwave measurements from the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and re-analysis data for the period 1979–2008. The evaluation is carried out by computing the Temperature in the Lower Troposphere (TLT) and Temperature in the Middle Troposphere (TMT) using the MSU weights from both University of Alabama (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) and restricting the study to primarily the tropical oceans. When forced by analysed sea surface temperature the model reproduces accurately the time-evolution of the mean outgoing tropospheric microwave radiation especially over tropical oceans but with a minor bias towards higher temperatures in the upper troposphere. The latest reanalyses data from the 25 year Japanese re-analysis (JRA25) and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis are in very close agreement with the time-evolution of the MSU data with a correlation of 0.98 and 0.96, respectively. The re-analysis trends are similar to the trends obtained from UAH but smaller than the trends from RSS. Comparison of TLT, computed from observations from UAH and RSS, with Sea Surface Temperature indicates that RSS has a warm bias after 1993. In order to identify the significance of the tropospheric linear temperature trends we determined the natural variability of 30-year trends from a 500 year control integration of the coupled ECHAM5 model. The model exhibits natural unforced variations of the 30 year tropospheric trend that vary within ±0.2 K/decade for the tropical oceans. This general result is supported by similar results from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled climate model. Present MSU observations from UAH for the period 1979–2008 are well within this range but RSS is close to the upper positive limit of this variability. We have also compared the trend of the vertical lapse rate over the tropical oceans assuming that the difference between TLT and TMT is an approximate measure of the lapse rate. The TLT–TMT trend is larger in both the measurements and in the JRA25 than in the model runs by 0.04–0.06 K/decade. Furthermore, a calculation of all 30 year TLT–TMT trends of the unforced 500-year integration vary between ±0.03 K/decade suggesting that the models have a minor systematic warm bias in the upper troposphere.

Environmental factors influencing the inactivation of Cronobacter sakazakii by high hydrostatic pressure

The effect of High Hydrostatic Pressure (HHP) on the survival of Cronobacter sakazakii was investigated. Deviations from linearity were found on the survival curves and the Mafart equation accurately described the kinetics of inactivation. Comparisons between strains and treatments were made based on the time needed for a 5-log10 reduction in viable count. The ability of C. sakazakii to tolerate high pressure was straindependent with a 26-fold difference in resistance among four strains tested. Pressure resistance was greatest in the stationary growth phase and at the highest growth temperatures tested (30 and 37 °C). Cells treated in neutral pH buffer were 5-fold more resistant than those treated at pH 4.0, and 8-fold more sensitive than those treated in buffer with sucrose added (aw=0.98). Pressure resistance data obtained in buffer at the appropriate pH adequately estimated the resistance of C. sakazakii in chicken and vegetables soups. In contrast, a significant protective effect against high pressure was conferred by rehydrated powdered milk. As expected, treatment efficacy improved as pressure increased. z values of 112, 136 and 156 MPa were obtained for pH 4.0, pH 7.0 and aw=0.98 buffers, respectively. Cells with sublethal injury to their outer and cytoplasmic membranes were detected after HHP under all the conditions tested. The lower resistance of C. sakazakii cells when treated in media of pH 4.0 seemed to be due to a decreased barostability of the bacterial envelopes. Conversely, the higher resistance displayed in media of reduced water activity may relate to a higher stability of bacterial envelopes.