Using interviewer random effects to remove selection bias from HIV prevalence estimates

Background: Selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates occurs if non-participation in testing is correlated with HIV status. Longitudinal data suggests that individuals who know or suspect they are HIV positive are less likely to participate in testing in HIV surveys, in which case methods to correct for missing data which are based on imputation and observed characteristics will produce biased results. Methods: The identity of the HIV survey interviewer is typically associated with HIV testing participation, but is unlikely to be correlated with HIV status. Interviewer identity can thus be used as a selection variable allowing estimation of Heckman-type selection models. These models produce asymptotically unbiased HIV prevalence estimates, even when non-participation is correlated with unobserved characteristics, such as knowledge of HIV status. We introduce a new random effects method to these selection models which overcomes non-convergence caused by collinearity, small sample bias, and incorrect inference in existing approaches. Our method is easy to implement in standard statistical software, and allows the construction of bootstrapped standard errors which adjust for the fact that the relationship between testing and HIV status is uncertain and needs to be estimated. Results: Using nationally representative data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, we illustrate our approach with new point estimates and confidence intervals (CI) for HIV prevalence among men in Ghana (2003) and Zambia (2007). In Ghana, we find little evidence of selection bias as our selection model gives an HIV prevalence estimate of 1.4% (95% CI 1.2% – 1.6%), compared to 1.6% among those with a valid HIV test. In Zambia, our selection model gives an HIV prevalence estimate of 16.3% (95% CI 11.0% - 18.4%), compared to 12.1% among those with a valid HIV test. Therefore, those who decline to test in Zambia are found to be more likely to be HIV positive. Conclusions: Our approach corrects for selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates, is possible to implement even when HIV prevalence or non-participation is very high or very low, and provides a practical solution to account for both sampling and parameter uncertainty in the estimation of confidence intervals. The wide confidence intervals estimated in an example with high HIV prevalence indicate that it is difficult to correct statistically for the bias that may occur when a large proportion of people refuse to test.

On the Assumption of Bivariate Normality in Selection Models: A Copula Approach Applied to Estimating HIV Prevalence

Background: Heckman-type selection models have been used to control HIV prevalence estimates for selection bias when participation in HIV testing and HIV status are associated after controlling for observed variables. These models typically rely on the strong assumption that the error terms in the participation and the outcome equations that comprise the model are distributed as bivariate normal.
Methods: We introduce a novel approach for relaxing the bivariate normality assumption in selection models using copula functions. We apply this method to estimating HIV prevalence and new confidence intervals (CI) in the 2007 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) by using interviewer identity as the selection variable that predicts participation (consent to test) but not the outcome (HIV status).
Results: We show in a simulation study that selection models can generate biased results when the bivariate normality assumption is violated. In the 2007 Zambia DHS, HIV prevalence estimates are similar irrespective of the structure of the association assumed between participation and outcome. For men, we estimate a population HIV prevalence of 21% (95% CI = 16%–25%) compared with 12% (11%–13%) among those who consented to be tested; for women, the corresponding figures are 19% (13%–24%) and 16% (15%–17%).
Conclusions: Copula approaches to Heckman-type selection models are a useful addition to the methodological toolkit of HIV epidemiology and of epidemiology in general. We develop the use of this approach to systematically evaluate the robustness of HIV prevalence estimates based on selection models, both empirically and in a simulation study.

On Variable Selection of a Nonlinear Non-parametric System with a Limited Data Set: A Stepwise Algorithm

his paper considers a problem of identification for a high dimensional nonlinear non-parametric system when only a limited data set is available. The algorithms are proposed for this purpose which exploit the relationship between the input variables and the output and further the inter-dependence of input variables so that the importance of the input variables can be established. A key to these algorithms is the non-parametric two stage input selection algorithm.

Spatio-temporal feeding selection of red deer in a mountainous landscape

Understanding the dietary consumption and selection of wild populations of generalist herbivores is hampered by the complex array of factors. Here, we determine the influence of habitat, season, and animal density, sex, and age on the diet consumption and selection of 426 red deer (Cervus elaphus scoticus) culled in Fiordland National Park, New Zealand. Our site differs from studies elsewhere both in habitat (evergreen angiosperm-dominated forests) and the intensity of hunting pressures. We predicted that deer would not consume forage in proportion to its relative availability, and that dietary consumption would change among and within years in response to hunting pressures that would also limit opportunities for age and sex segregation. Using canonical correspondence analysis, we evaluated the relative importance of different drivers of variation in diet consumption assessed from gut content and related these to available forage in the environment. We found that altitude explained the largest proportion of variation in diet consumption, reflecting the ability of deer to alter their consumption and selection in relation to their foraging grounds. Grasses formed a high proportion of the diet consumption, even for deer culled several kilometres from the alpine grasslands. In the winter months, when the alpine grasslands were largely inaccessible, less grass was eaten and deer resorted to woody plants that were avoided in the summer months. Surprisingly, there were no significant dietary differences between adults and juveniles and only subtle differences between the sexes. Sex-based differences in diet consumption are commonly observed in ungulate species and we suggest that they may have been reduced in our study area owing to decreased heterogeneity in available forage as the diversity of palatable species decreased under high deer browsing pressures, or by intense hunting pressure. © 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2009 Ecological Society of Australia.

Cooperative Beamforming and User Selection for Improving the Security of Relay-aided Systems

A relay network in which a source wishes to convey a confidential message to a legitimate destination with the assistance of trusted relays is considered. In particular, cooperative beamforming and user selection techniques are applied to protect the confidential message. The secrecy rate (SR) and secrecy outage probability (SOP) of the network are investigated first, and a tight upper bound for the SR and an exact formula for the SOP are derived. Next, asymptotic approximations for the SR and SOP in the high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) regime are derived for two different schemes: i) cooperative beamforming and ii) multiuser selection. Further, a new concept of cooperative diversity gain, namely, adapted cooperative diversity gain (ACDG), which can be used to evaluate security level of a cooperative relaying network, is investigated. It is shown that the ACDG of cooperative beamforming is equal to the conventional cooperative diversity gain of traditional multiple-input single-output networks, while the ACDG of the multiuser scenario is equal to that of traditional single-input multiple-output networks.

TAP Reactor Development and Application in the Kinetic Characterization of Catalysts for Heterogeneously Catalyzed Gas Phase Reactions

This manuscript describes the application and further development of the TAP technique in kinetic characterization of heterogeneous catalysis. The major application of TAP systems is to study mechanisms, kinetics and transport phenomena in heterogeneous catalysis, all of which is made possible by the sub-millisecond time resolution. Furthermore, the kinetic information obtained can be used to gain an insight into the mechanism occurring over the catalyst system. This is advantageous as heterogeneous catalysts with an improved efficiency can be developed as a result. TAP kinetic studies are carried out at low pressure (~1x10-7 mbar) and TAP pulses are sufficiently small (1013-1015 molecules) so as to maintain this low pressure. The use of a small number of molecules in comparison to the total number of active sites means the state of the catalyst remains relatively unchanged. The use of the low intensity pulses also makes the pressure gradient negligible and so allows the TAP reactor system to operate in the Knudsen Diffusion regime, where gas-gas reactions are eliminated. Hence only gas-catalyst reactions are investigated and, by the use of moment analysis of observed exit flow, rate constants of elementary steps of the reaction can be obtained.

In this manuscript, two attempts to further the TAP technique are reported. Firstly, the work undertaken at QUB to attempt to control the number of molecules of condensable reagents that can be pulsed during a TAP pulse experiment is disclosed. Secondly, a collaborative project with SAI Ltd Manchester is discussed in a separate chapter, where technical details and validation of a customised time of flight mass spectrometer (ToF MS) for the QUB TAP-1 system are reported. A collaborative project with Cardiff Catalysis Institute focusing on the study of CO oxidation over hopcalite catalysts is also reported. The analysis of the experimental results has provided an insight into the possible mechanism of the oxidation of CO over these catalysts. A correction function has also been derived which accounts for the adsorption of reactant molecules over inert materials that are used for the reactor packing in TAP experiments. This function was then applied to the selective reduction of O2 in a H2 rich ethene feed, so that more accurate TAP moment based analysis could be conducted.

Tenure-track contract helps self-selection

Tenure-track contract is criticized for curbing the incentives to expend effort after obtaining tenured status. Yet the most productive faculties seem to work on a tenure contract, and schools which aim to employ the best faculty seem to prefer to offer tenure-track contracts to their new recruits. I argue that tenure-track contracts are by construction more attractive to more able freshly minted PhDs, and therefore the observed sorting is rationalizable.

Environmental selection on transcriptome-derived SNPs in a high gene flow marine fish, the Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus)

High gene flow is considered the norm for most marine organisms and is expected to limit their ability to adapt to local environments. Few studies have directly compared the patterns of differentiation at neutral and selected gene loci in marine organisms. We analysed a transcriptome-derived panel of 281 SNPs in Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus), a highly migratory small pelagic fish, for elucidating neutral and selected genetic variation among populations and to identify candidate genes for environmental adaptation. We analysed 607 individuals from 18 spawning locations in the northeast Atlantic, including two temperature clines (5-12 °C) and two salinity clines (5-35‰). By combining genome scan and landscape genetic analyses, four genetically distinct groups of herring were identified: Baltic Sea, Baltic-North Sea transition area, North Sea/British Isles and North Atlantic; notably, samples exhibited divergent clustering patterns for neutral and selected loci. We found statistically strong evidence for divergent selection at 16 outlier loci on a global scale, and significant correlations with temperature and salinity at nine loci. On regional scales, we identified two outlier loci with parallel patterns across temperature clines and five loci associated with temperature in the North Sea/North Atlantic. Likewise, we found seven replicated outliers, of which five were significantly associated with low salinity across both salinity clines. Our results reveal a complex pattern of varying spatial genetic variation among outlier loci, likely reflecting adaptations to local environments. In addition to disclosing the fine scale of local adaptation in a highly vagile species, our data emphasize the need to preserve functionally important biodiversity.

Star-planet interactions and selection effects from planet detection methods

Planets may have effects on their host stars by tidal or magnetic interaction. Such star-planet interactions are thought to enhance the activity level of the host star. However, stellar activity also affects the sensitivity of planet detection methods. Samples of planet-hosting stars which are investigated for such star-planet interactions are therefore subject to strong selection effects which need to be taken into account.

Signal Reliability Improvement Using Selection Combining Based Macro-Diversity for Off-Body Communications At 868 MHz

This paper investigates the potential improvement in signal reliability for outdoor short-range off-body communications channels at 868 MHz using the macro-diversity offered by multiple co-located base stations. In this study, ten identical hypothetical base stations were positioned equidistantly around the perimeter of a rectangle of length 6.67 m and width 3.3 m. A body worn node was placed on the central chest region of an adult male. Five scenarios, each considering different user trajectories, were then analyzed to test the efficacy of using macro-diversity when the desired link is subject to shadowing caused by the human body. A number of selection combining based macro-diversity configurations consisting of four and then ten base stations were considered. It was found that using a macro-diversity system consisting of four base stations (or equivalently signal branches), a maximum diversity gain of 22.5 dB could be obtained while implementing a 10-base station setup this figure could be improved to 25.2 dB.

Real-Time Channel Model Selection Using Windowed Received Signal Strength Measurements

This paper investigates the potential for using the windowed variance of the received signal strength to select from a set of predetermined channel models for a wireless ranging or localization system. An 868 MHz based measurement system was used to characterize the received signal strength (RSS) of the off-body link formed between two wireless nodes attached to either side of a human thorax and six base stations situated in the local surroundings.

Investigation into DCT Feature Selection for Visual Lip-Based Biometric Authentication

This paper investigated using lip movements as a behavioural biometric for person authentication. The system was trained, evaluated and tested using the XM2VTS dataset, following the Lausanne Protocol configuration II. Features were selected from the DCT coefficients of the greyscale lip image. This paper investigated the number of DCT coefficients selected, the selection process, and static and dynamic feature combinations. Using a Gaussian Mixture Model - Universal Background Model framework an Equal Error Rate of 2.20% was achieved during evaluation and on an unseen test set a False Acceptance Rate of 1.7% and False Rejection Rate of 3.0% was achieved. This compares favourably with face authentication results on the same dataset whilst not being susceptible to spoofing attacks.

Reference gene selection in human periodontal ligament cells

Background: Real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) is a highly sensitive and specific method which is used extensively for determining gene expression profiles in a variety of cell and tissue types. In order to obtain accurate and reliable gene expression quantification, qPCR data are generally normalised against so-called reference or housekeeping genes. Ideally, reference genes should have abundant and stable RNA transcriptomes under the experimental conditions employed. However, reference genes are often selected rather arbitrarily and indeed some have been shown to have variable expression in a variety of in vitro experimental conditions.
Objective: The objective of the current study was to investigate reference gene expression in human periodontal ligament (PDL) cells in response to treatment with lipopolysaccharide (LPS).
Method: Primary human PDL cells were grown in Dulbecco’s Modified Eagle Medium with L-glutamine supplemented with 10% fetal bovine serum, 100UI/ml penicillin and 100µg/ml streptomycin. RNA was isolated using the RNeasy Mini Kit (Qiagen) and reverse transcribed using the QuantiTect Reverse Transcription Kit (Qiagen). The expression of a total of 19 reference genes was studied in the presence and absence of LPS treatment using the Roche Reference Gene Panel. Data were analysed using NormFinder and Bestkeeper validation programs.
Results: Treatment of human PDL cells with LPS resulted in changes in expression of several commonly used reference genes, including GAPDH. On the other hand the reference genes β-actin, G6PDH and 18S were identified as stable genes following LPS treatment.
Conclusion: Many of the reference genes studied were robust to LPS treatment (up to 100 ng/ml). However several commonly employed reference genes, including GAPDH varied with LPS treatment, suggesting they would not be ideal candidates for normalisation in qPCR gene expression studies.

Gendered Candidate Selection and the Representation of Women in Northern Ireland

In an attempt to account for the exceptionally low levels of female representation in Northern Ireland, this paper provides an analysis of the contemporary candidate selection procedures of the region's five main political parties. Drawing on evidence gathered from 29 elite interviews, plus official internal party documents, the study finds that the localised nature of the parties' selection procedures may disadvantage women aspirants. Also important are ‘supply-side’ factors influencing legislative recruitment and female participation rates, namely the strongly embedded social norm of female domestic responsibility, a masculinised political culture and the lack of confidence of potential female candidates.