Double coverage and demand for health care: Evidence from quantile regression

An individual experiences double coverage when he bene ts from more than one health insurance plan at the same time. This paper examines the impact of such supplementary insurance on the demand for health care services. Its novelty is that within the context of count data modelling and without imposing restrictive parametric assumptions, the analysis is carried out for di¤erent points of the conditional distribution, not only for its mean location. Results indicate that moral hazard is present across the whole outcome distribution for both public and private second layers of health insurance coverage but with greater magnitude in the latter group. By looking at di¤erent points we unveil that stronger double coverage e¤ects are smaller for high levels of usage. We use data for Portugal, taking advantage of particular features of the public and private protection schemes on top of the statutory National Health Service. By exploring the last Portuguese Health Survey, we were able to evaluate their impacts on the consumption of doctor visi

Invited review: Models for the optimization of regional wastewater treatment systems

European Journal of Operational Research, nº 73 (1994)

Nosocomial infection in long-term care facilities. A survey in a Brazilian psychiatric hospital

Nosocomial infection among male patients in a public psychiatric hospital was studied and the definitions for use in long-term care facilities were employed for diagnosis. The overall nosocomial infection rate was 6.7 per 1,000 day inpatients; 55.6% of these infections were identified in the respiratory tract, 50% of them being respiratory viral diseases; 38.9% of the nosocomial infections involved the eyes, ears, nose, throat and mouth, and 5.6% involved the skin and soft tissues. The epidemiological characteristics and the main clinical alterations of these inpatients were also identified.

O financiamento por capitação ajustada pelo risco em contexto de integração vertical de cuidados de saúde : a utilização dos consumos com medicamentos como proxy da carga de doença em ambulatório

RESUMO - Introdução - Com o presente projecto de investigação pretendeu-se estudar o financiamento por capitação ajustado pelo risco em contexto de integração vertical de cuidados de saúde, recorrendo particularmente a informação sobre o consumo de medicamentos em ambulatório como proxy da carga de doença. No nosso país, factores como a expansão de estruturas de oferta verticalmente integradas, inadequação histórica da sua forma de pagamento e a recente possibilidade de dispor de informação sobre o consumo de medicamentos de ambulatório em bases de dados informatizadas são três fortes motivos para o desenvolvimento de conhecimento associado a esta temática. Metodologia - Este trabalho compreende duas fases principais: i) a adaptação e aplicação de um modelo de consumo de medicamentos que permite estimar a carga de doença em ambulatório (designado de PRx). Nesta fase foi necessário realizar um trabalho de selecção, estruturação e classificação do modelo. A sua aplicação envolveu a utilização de bases de dados informatizadas de consumos com medicamentos nos anos de 2007 e 2008 para a região de Saúde do Alentejo; ii) na segunda fase foram simulados três modelos de financiamento alternativos que foram propostos para financiar as ULS em Portugal. Particularmente foram analisadas as dimensões e variáveis de ajustamento pelo risco (índices de mortalidade, morbilidade e custos per capita), sua ponderação relativa e consequente impacto financeiro. Resultados - Com o desenvolvimento do modelo PRx estima-se que 36% dos residentes na região Alentejo têm pelo menos uma doença crónica, sendo a capacidade de estimação do modelo no que respeita aos consumos de medicamentos na ordem dos 0,45 (R2). Este modelo revelou constituir uma alternativa a fontes de informação tradicionais como são os casos de outros estudos internacionais ou o Inquérito Nacional de Saúde. A consideração dos valores do PRx para efeitos de financiamento per capita introduz alterações face a outros modelos propostos neste âmbito. Após a análise dos montantes de financiamento entre os cenários alternativos, obtendo os modelos 1 e 2 níveis de concordância por percentil mais próximos entre si comparativamente ao modelo 3, seleccionou-se o modelo 1 como o mais adequado para a nossa realidade. Conclusão - A aplicação do modelo PRx numa região de saúde permitiu concluir em função dos resultados alcançados, que já existe a possibilidade de estruturação e operacionalização de um modelo que permite estimar a carga de doença em ambulatório a partir de informação relativa ao seu perfil de consumo de medicamentos dos utentes. A utilização desta informação para efeitos de financiamento de organizações de saúde verticalmente integradas provoca uma variação no seu actual nível de financiamento. Entendendo este estudo como um ponto de partida onde apenas uma parte da presente temática ficará definida, outras questões estruturantes do actual sistema de financiamento não deverão também ser olvidadas neste contexto. ------- ABSTRACT - Introduction - The main goal of this study was the development of a risk adjustment model for financing integrated delivery systems (IDS) in Portugal. The recent improvement of patient records, mainly at primary care level, the historical inadequacy of payment models and the increasing number of IDS were three important factors that drove us to develop new approaches for risk adjustment in our country. Methods - The work was divided in two steps: the development of a pharmacy-based model in Portugal and the proposal of a risk adjustment model for financing IDS. In the first step an expert panel was specially formed to classify more than 33.000 codes included in Portuguese pharmacy national codes into 33 chronic conditions. The study included population of Alentejo Region in Portugal (N=441.550 patients) during 2007 and 2008. Using pharmacy data extracted from three databases: prescription, private pharmacies and hospital ambulatory pharmacies we estimated a regression model including Potential Years of Life Lost, Complexity, Severity and PRx information as dependent variables to assess total cost as the independent variable. This healthcare financing model was compared with other two models proposed for IDS. Results - The more prevalent chronic conditions are cardiovascular (34%), psychiatric disorders (10%) and diabetes (10%). These results are also consistent with the National Health Survey. Apparently the model presents some limitations in identifying patients with rheumatic conditions, since it underestimates prevalence and future drug expenditure. We obtained a R2 value of 0,45, which constitutes a good value comparing with the state of the art. After testing three scenarios we propose a model for financing IDS in Portugal. Conclusion - Drug information is a good alternative to diagnosis in determining morbidity level in a population basis through ambulatory care data. This model offers potential benefits to estimate chronic conditions and future drug costs in the Portuguese healthcare system. This information could be important to resource allocation decision process, especially concerning risk adjustment and healthcare financing.

Congenital cytomegalovirus infection in a neonatal intensive care unit in Brazil evaluated by PCR and association with perinatal aspects

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is the most common congenital infection, affecting 0.4% to 2.3% newborns. Most of them are asymptomatic at birth, but later 10% develop handicaps, mainly neurological disturbances. Our aim was to determine the prevalence of CMV shed in urine of newborns from a neonatal intensive care unit using the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and correlate positive cases to some perinatal aspects. Urine samples obtained at first week of life were processed according to a PCR protocol. Perinatal data were collected retrospectively from medical records. Twenty of the 292 cases (6.8%) were CMV-DNA positive. There was no statistical difference between newborns with and without CMV congenital infection concerning birth weight (p=0.11), gestational age (p=0.11), Apgar scores in the first and fifth minutes of life (p=0.99 and 0.16), mother's age (p=0.67) and gestational history. Moreover, CMV congenital infection was neither related to gender (p=0.55) nor to low weight (<2,500g) at birth (p=0.13). This high prevalence of CMV congenital infection (6.8%) could be due to the high sensitivity of PCR technique, the low socioeconomic level of studied population or the severe clinical status of these newborns.

Models and tools for value systems analysis in collaborative environments

Dissertation to obtain the degree of Doctor in Electrical and Computer Engineering, specialization of Collaborative Networks

Cytomegalovirus infection in children with Down syndrome in a day-care center in Brazil

This study evaluates the transmission of CMV infection in 120 children aged 1 to 15 years with Down syndrome who attended a day-care center for handicapped children in São Paulo, Brazil. A blood sample was obtained from each children at the beginning of the study for detection of IgG and IgM cytomegalovirus (CMV) antibodies by an immunofluorescence assay. Samples of saliva and urine were obtained every 3 months from the children with CMV antibodies to detect shedding of the virus by culture in human foreskin fibroblasts, by detection of pp65 CMV-antigen and by a nested PCR assay. The prevalence of anti CMV-IgG antibodies was 76.6% (92/120), and IgM anti-CMV antibodies were detected in 13% (12/92) of the seropositive children. During the first viral evaluation, CMV was detected in the urine and/or saliva in 39/90 (43.3%) of the seropositive children. In the second and third evaluations, CMV was detected in 41/89 (46%) and in 35/89 (39.3%) children, respectively. Detection of CMV was shown both in urine and saliva in 28/39 (71.8%), 19/41(46.3%) and 20/35 (57.1%) of the children excreting the virus, respectively. Additionally, in 33/49 (67.4%) of the excreters CMV could be demonstrated in urine or saliva in at least two out of the three virological evaluations carried out sequentially in a six month period. Of the 28 initially seronegative children, 26 were re-examined for anti-CMV IgG antibodies about 18 months after the negative sample; seroconversion was found in 10/26 (38.5%). Taking all 536 samples of urine or saliva examined by virus culture and pp65 antigen detection during the study into account, 159 (29.6%) were positive by virus culture and 59 (11%) gave a positive result with the pp65 assay. These data demonstrate the high prevalence of CMV shedding and the high risk of CMV infection in children with Down syndrome attending a day-care center for mentally handicapped patients. The virus culture was more sensitive than the pp65 CMV antigen assay for CMV detection in both urine and saliva samples.

Estimation of infection rate in epidemic models with multiple populations

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Matemática e Aplicações Especialização em Actuariado, Estatística e Investigação Operacional

Alteração do paradigma da gestão dos cuidados à pessoa com infecção VIH : um modelo centrado nos cuidados de saúde primários

RESUMO - A infecção por VIH é reconhecida mundialmente como um problema de saúde pública, apesar de todos os esforços e recursos despendidos e dos avanços científicos conseguidos nos últimos anos. Portugal, apesar do registo da diminuição de novos casos de infecção VIH, encontra-se no 4.º lugar (dos países da União Europeia) em termos de incidência de infecção por VIH (dados de 2008). Esta situação, juntamente com a crescente constatação dos custos elevados para o tratamento desta infecção, da variabilidade de práticas e a fragmentação dos cuidados, motivou a reflexão sobre modelos alternativos de organização de cuidados, inspirados em modelos de gestão da doença e idealmente centrados nos cuidados de saúde primários. O presente trabalho teve como objectivos analisar os modelos de organização de cuidados prestados à pessoa com VIH, nos países desenvolvidos, a nível dos cuidados de saúde primários e compreender o nível de adequação dos resultados encontrados, para a realidade portuguesa. Para os alcançar foi realizada uma revisão da literatura e a realização de entrevistas a profissionais de saúde. Nos artigos analisados na revisão da literatura, verificou-se consenso em torno de um modelo baseado em cuidados partilhados, entre os prestadores primários e os diferenciados. Foram ainda referenciados múltiplos factores e condições que terão de ser assegurados para uma possível implementação do modelo. Quanto aos entrevistados verificou-se uma opinião favorável em relação ao modelo de cuidados partilhados, mostrando-se expectantes e despertos para a necessidade de mudança, perspectivando uma maior integração do actual estado de organização dos cuidados para a pessoa com VIH. Estes indícios reflectem a relevância de maior investigação sobre o modelo de cuidados partilhados.

Influence of structural features on Portuguese toddler child care quality

Whereas child care quality has been extensively studied in the U.S., there is much less information about the quality of child care in other countries.With one of the highest maternal employment rates in Europe, it is important to examine child care in Portugal. Thirty toddler classrooms in child care centers were observed. The purpose of this studywas to determine whether structural features account for overall toddler child care quality. Results showed younger and better-paid teachers provided better toddler child care quality. Space available per childwas not a statistically significant predictor of toddler child care quality.Overall quality results suggest some issues to be addressed by early education policy makers and indicate the need to promote quality in Portuguese toddler child care programs.

Outbreaks of human-herpes virus 6 (HHV-6) infection in day-care centers in Belém, Pará, Brazil

A total of 730 children aged less than 7 years, attending 8 day-care centers (DCCs) in Belém, Brazil were followed-up from January to December 1997 to investigate the occurrence of human-herpes virus 6 (HHV-6) infection in these institutional settings. Between October and December 1997 there have been outbreaks of a febrile- and -exanthematous disease, affecting at least 15-20% of children in each of the DCCs. Both serum- and- plasma samples were obtained from 401 (55%) of the 730 participating children for the detection of HHV-6 antibodies by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and viral DNA amplification through the nested-PCR. Recent HHV-6 infection was diagnosed in 63.8% (256/401) of them, as defined by the presence of both IgM and IgG-specific antibodies (IgM+/IgG+); of these, 114 (44.5%) were symptomatic and 142 (55.5%) had no symptoms (p = 0.03). A subgroup of 123 (30.7%) children were found to be IgM-/IgG+, whereas the remaining 22 (5.5%) children had neither IgM nor IgG HHV-6- antibodies (IgM-/IgG-). Of the 118 children reacting strongly IgM-positive ( > or = 30 PANBIO units), 26 (22.0%) were found to harbour the HHV-6 DNA, as demonstrated by nested-PCR. Taken the ELISA-IgM- and- nested PCR-positive results together, HHV-6 infection was shown to have occurred in 5 of the 8 DCCs under follow-up. Serological evidence of recent infections by Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and parvovirus B19 were identified in 2.0% (8/401) and 1.5% (6/401) of the children, respectively. Our data provide strong evidence that HHV-6 is a common cause of outbreaks of febrile/exanthematous diseases among children attending DCCs in the Belém area.