Characterizing, modelling and understanding the climate variability of the deep water formation in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea

Observing, modelling and understanding the climate-scale variability of the deep water formation (DWF) in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea remains today very challenging. In this study, we first characterize the interannual variability of this phenomenon by a thorough reanalysis of observations in order to establish reference time series. These quantitative indicators include 31 observed years for the yearly maximum mixed layer depth over the period 1980–2013 and a detailed multi-indicator description of the period 2007–2013. Then a 1980–2013 hindcast simulation is performed with a fully-coupled regional climate system model including the high-resolution representation of the regional atmosphere, ocean, land-surface and rivers. The simulation reproduces quantitatively well the mean behaviour and the large interannual variability of the DWF phenomenon. The model shows convection deeper than 1000 m in 2/3 of the modelled winters, a mean DWF rate equal to 0.35 Sv with maximum values of 1.7 (resp. 1.6) Sv in 2013 (resp. 2005). Using the model results, the winter-integrated buoyancy loss over the Gulf of Lions is identified as the primary driving factor of the DWF interannual variability and explains, alone, around 50 % of its variance. It is itself explained by the occurrence of few stormy days during winter. At daily scale, the Atlantic ridge weather regime is identified as favourable to strong buoyancy losses and therefore DWF, whereas the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is unfavourable. The driving role of the vertical stratification in autumn, a measure of the water column inhibition to mixing, has also been analyzed. Combining both driving factors allows to explain more than 70 % of the interannual variance of the phenomenon and in particular the occurrence of the five strongest convective years of the model (1981, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013). The model simulates qualitatively well the trends in the deep waters (warming, saltening, increase in the dense water volume, increase in the bottom water density) despite an underestimation of the salinity and density trends. These deep trends come from a heat and salt accumulation during the 1980s and the 1990s in the surface and intermediate layers of the Gulf of Lions before being transferred stepwise towards the deep layers when very convective years occur in 1999 and later. The salinity increase in the near Atlantic Ocean surface layers seems to be the external forcing that finally leads to these deep trends. In the future, our results may allow to better understand the behaviour of the DWF phenomenon in Mediterranean Sea simulations in hindcast, forecast, reanalysis or future climate change scenario modes. The robustness of the obtained results must be however confirmed in multi-model studies.

Avaliação dos problemas músculo-esqueléticos como preditores do estado de saúde em atletas de hóquei em patins

OBJETIVOS: Avaliar a prevalência de problemas músculo-esqueléticos (PM-E) em atletas praticantes de Hóquei em Patins (HP); comparar e correlacionar o estado de saúde (ES), o grau de dificuldade sentida no desempenho do HP e a intensidade da dor com os PM-E; estimar as diferentes contribuições dos PM-E para a variação no ES, grau de dificuldade sentida no desempenho do HP e a intensidade da dor. MATERIAIS E MÉTODOS: Foram inquiridos 289 atletas, a competir nos campeonatos nacionais e locais de HP em Portugal na época 2011/2012. Foi registada a prevalência de PM-E e o seu impacto no ES dos atletas nos últimos 12 meses. Todos os participantes responderam a um Questionário de PM-E relativo a 10 regiões anatómicas e ao Short Form-36 Health Survey Questionnaire. RESULTADOS: As áreas com maior prevalência de PM-E são o punho/mãos (31.1%), ancas/coxas (24.6%) e região lombar (24.2%). Grande parte dos atletas que reportaram problemas, apesar de experienciarem dor e limitação durante a sua participação, não interromperam a prática desportiva. As queixas físicas são prevalentes entre os atletas que reportaram PM-E e, predominantemente, resultantes de lesões por sobrecarga. Os PM-E afetaram as subescalas mais relacionadas com a dimensão física da saúde (p ≤ 0.05), diminuíndo, na generalidade, o ES dos atletas. Esta diminuição foi acompanhada de um aumento da dificuldade sentida no desempenho do HP e da intensidade de dor. A análise de regressão múltipla stepwise revelou que os PM-E explicam 1.4% a 28% da variância dos resultados das subescalas do ES. Quanto ao grau médio de dificuldade no desempenho do HP, os PM-E explicam 27.1% da variância dos resultados, assim como, explicam 21.3% da variância dos resultados da intensidade média de dor. CONCLUSÃO: Os PM-E são prevalentes em atletas praticantes de HP e estão associados a um menor ES, a um aumento da dificuldade no desempenho do HP e uma maior intensidade de dor; estes explicam uma proporção moderada da variação no ES, grau de dificuldade sentida no desempenho do HP e intensidade de dor. A ocorrência de problemas ao longo da época, diminuíu o rendimento e a participação desportiva, estendendo-se, estas limitações, para além do terreno de jogo, interferindo com as atividades diárias dos atletas.

Motivação e satisfação à luz do modelo ASH: estudo de caso em indústria de alimentos

Neste estudo, foram examinadas as relações existentes entre a motivação e a satisfação do trabalhador no espaço laboral. O estudo empírico foi conduzido em uma única etapa, por meio da qual buscou-se conhecer as dimensões latentes identificadas e, a partir das dimensões validadas, buscou-se estabelecer relações com características motivacionais, como antecedentes, e satisfação pelo trabalho realizado, como conseqüência do atendimento das necessidades manifestadas pelo trabalhador. Foram entrevistados 38 (trinta e oito) funcionários da empresa Água Mineral Cristalina, incluindo-se os que ocupam cargos de chefia. Como instrumento de coleta de dados, foi utilizada parte do complexo da Auditoria do Sistema Humano ASH, criado por Quijano (1999), que se trata de um modelo de pesquisa na área de Psicologia Social, incluindo a Administração de Recursos Humanos, que analisa os processos psicológicos e psicossociais nas organizações. Para esta pesquisa, foram utilizados dois formulários sugeridos pelo autor citado, (anexos 01 e 02). O primeiro denomina-se condições para a motivação , com 15 (quinze) questões do tipo likert. O segundo, "trabalho bem feito e satisfação de necessidades", tem 22 (vinte e duas) questões, também do tipo likert. O instrumento foi respondido por colaboradores, independente da posição hierárquica, em aproximadamente 10 (dez) a 15 (quinze) minutos. A aplicação foi realizada diretamente pelo pesquisador nas unidades de produção e de administração da empresa. Por meio de modelagem de equações estruturais, foi estabelecido um modelo de relações causais entre as dimensões latentes relacionadas à motivação e o desempenho do empregado quando tem satisfeitas as suas necessidades. Quanto ao tratamento dos dados, este ocorreu de forma quantitativa. Quanto à análise, aconteceu após os dados terem sido tratados. Nesta pesquisa, os dados foram analisados por meio de estatísticas descritivas, atualizando-se os recursos de softwares específicos como Statistic ou SPSS Statistic Package for Social Sciences. Usou-se a técnica de Análise de Regressão, na qual foi utilizado o método STEPWISE que inclui na equação de explicação de uma variável dependente somente aquelas que auxiliam ou incrementam sua explicação. Como variáveis dependentes, foram utilizadas as variáveis do formulário "trabalho bem feito e satisfação de necessidades" e como variável independe as variáveis do questionário "condições para motivação". Sob o ponto de vista prático, este estudo mostrou que um determinado conjunto de características motivacionais influi positivamente na satisfação do trabalhador, que poderá realizar um trabalho bem feito; do lado teórico, a pesquisa verificou explicitamente a hipótese de que os aspectos motivacionais contribuem para que o empregado, sentindo-se satisfeito, desempenhe melhor as atribuições que lhe são conferidas

Local influence analysis in general spatial models

Lipid remodelling in the reef-building honeycomb worm, Sabellaria alveolata, reflects acclimation and local adaptation to temperature

Acclimation and adaptation, which are key to species survival in a changing climate, can be observed in terms of membrane lipid composition. Remodelling membrane lipids, via homeoviscous adaptation (HVA), counteracts membrane dysfunction due to temperature in poikilotherms. In order to assess the potential for acclimation and adaptation in the honeycomb worm, Sabellaria alveolata, a reef-building polychaete that supports high biodiversity, we carried out common-garden experiments using individuals from along its latitudinal range. Individuals were exposed to a stepwise temperature increase from 15 °C to 25 °C and membrane lipid composition assessed. Our results suggest that S. alveolata was able to acclimate to higher temperatures, as observed by a decrease in unsaturation index and 20:5n-3. However, over the long-term at 25 °C, lipid composition patterns are not consistent with HVA expectations and suggest a stress response. Furthermore, unsaturation index of individuals from the two coldest sites were higher than those from the two warmest sites, with individuals from the thermally intermediate site being in-between, likely reflecting local adaptation to temperature. Therefore, lipid remodelling appears limited at the highest temperatures in S. alveolata, suggesting that individuals inhabiting warm environments may be close to their upper thermal tolerance limits and at risk in a changing climate.

IMPULSIVIDAD Y FACETAS DE LA PERSONALIDAD: RELACIÓN ENTRE INSTRUMENTOS DE MEDIDA

El objetivo fue relacionar la impulsividad con rasgos de personalidad, estudiando evidencia de validez convergente-discriminante para la Bateria Fatorial de Personalidade (BFP) y para la Escala de Avaliação da Impulsividade (EsAvI). Participaron 178 de la policía militar del estado de Minas Gerais, Brasil. En los resultados se recurrió al análisis de regresión stepwise, por el cual fueron identificados modelos predictores constituidos por facetas de los cinco factores de la personalidad, destacándose los factores ‘Inestabilidad Emocional’ y ‘Responsabilidad y Extraversión’ como los más relacionados a la Impulsividad. También se observó que el factor ‘Falta de Concentración y de Persistencia’ de la EsAvI fue el que reveló modelos con mayor variancia explicada por un conjunto de facetas de la BFP.

Impact of hypomineralized teeth and sociobehavioral aspects on caries development: a prospective cohort study

Aim: This prospective cohort study was to evaluate the independent and mutual effects of socioeconomic, oral health behaviors and individual clinical factors, including enamel hypomineralization, as possible risk factors for increase in caries experience in second primary molar (SPM) over a period of 2-years. Methods: Children (n=216) aged 4-6 years were examined for hypomineralized second primary molar (HSPM) and dental caries in school settings and were recalled every 6 months. The caregivers filled out a semi-structured questionnaire about their socio-demographic and oral health-related behaviors. Data analysis was performed using a hierarchical model with three levels. Multiple analyses were performed at each level and variables with p<0.20 were tested by stepwise multiple Generalized Estimating Equation. Results: At final examination, 33.3% of the children had developed new caries lesions in SPM. The model showed that the number of years of mother’s schooling and the caregiver´s perception about their children’s caries experience played a protective role in the incidence of dental caries. Children who had white spot lesions were more likely to develop new carious lesions in SPM. Children with HSPM showed no higher incidence of caries in their SPM than those without HSPM. Conclusions: Clinical, socioeconomic and behavioral factors impacted on caries development in primary second molars. However, further studies are required to better understand the role of HSPM in caries development in other age groups.

Factors predicting the importance of sex in old age

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao ISPA - Instituto Universitário

Prediction of adult height in girls: the Beunen-MalinaFreitas method

The purpose of this study was to validate and cross-validate the Beunen-Malina-Freitas method for non-invasive prediction of adult height in girls. A sample of 420 girls aged 10–15 years from the Madeira Growth Study were measured at yearly intervals and then 8 years later. Anthropometric dimensions (lengths, breadths, circumferences, and skinfolds) were measured; skeletal age was assessed using the Tanner-Whitehouse 3 method and menarcheal status (present or absent) was recorded. Adult height was measured and predicted using stepwise, forward, and maximum R2 regression techniques. Multiple correlations, mean differences, standard errors of prediction, and error boundaries were calculated. A sample of the Leuven Longitudinal Twin Study was used to cross-validate the regressions. Age-specific coefficients of determination (R2) between predicted and measured adult height varied between 0.57 and 0.96, while standard errors of prediction varied between 1.1 and 3.9 cm. The cross-validation confirmed the validity of the Beunen-Malina-Freitas method in girls aged 12–15 years, but at lower ages the cross-validation was less consistent. We conclude that the Beunen-Malina-Freitas method is valid for the prediction of adult height in girls aged 12–15 years. It is applicable to European populations or populations of European ancestry.

Ceramic-veneered zirconia frameworks in full-arch implant rehabilitations: A 6-month to 5-year retrospective cohort study

Purpose: This was a retrospective cohort study designed to evaluate the clinical performance of ceramicveneered zirconia frameworks. Materials and Methods: Patients were recruited according to defined inclusion criteria. All patients were checked every 4 months from the time of definitive rehabilitation. At the end of 2013, all patients were rescheduled and rechecked for study purposes. The restorative procedures assessment was performed by previously established methods. The primary outcomes were the survival and success rates of the prosthesis. Descriptive statistics were used for the patient's demographics, implant distribution, and occurrence of complications. To study the survival and success of the prostheses, a Cox Regression analysis was used with a model constructed in a forward conditional stepwise mode. Predictive variables were included in the model, and adjusted survival curves were obtained for each outcome. Results: From 2008 to 2013, 75 patients were rehabilitated with 92 implant-supported, screw-retained, full-arch ceramic-veneered zirconia framework rehabilitations. The range of follow-up was between 6 months and 5 years. From the 92 full implant-supported screw-retained full-arch rehabilitations, Cox regression analysis indicated that within a 5-year time frame, the probability of framework fracture, major chipping, minor chipping, or any of the former combined to occur was 17.6%, 46.5%, 69.2%, and 90.5%, respectively. Conclusion: Results suggest zirconia as a suitable material for framework structure in implant-supported, full-arch rehabilitations. However, it experiences a high incidence of technical complications, mainly due to ceramic chipping. Further clinical studies should aim to ascertain the effects of clinical features and manufacturing procedures on the survival rates of these prostheses. © 2016 by Quintessence Publishing Co Inc.

Factors facilitating a national quality registry to aid clinical quality improvement : findings of a national survey

Objectives: While national quality registries (NQRs) are suggested to provide opportunities for systematic follow-up and learning opportunities, and thus clinical improvements, features in registries and contexts triggering such processes are not fully known. This study focuses on one of the world's largest stroke registries, the Swedish NQR Riksstroke, investigating what aspects of the registry and healthcare organisations facilitate or hinder the use of registry data in clinical quality improvement. Methods: Following particular qualitative studies, we performed a quantitative survey in an exploratory sequential design. The survey, including 50 items on context, processes and the registry, was sent to managers, physicians and nurses engaged in Riksstroke in all 72 Swedish stroke units. Altogether, 242 individuals were presented with the survey; 163 responded, representing all but two units. Data were analysed descriptively and through multiple linear regression. Results: A majority (88%) considered Riksstroke data to facilitate detection of stroke care improvement needs and acknowledged that their data motivated quality improvements (78%). The use of Riksstroke for quality improvement initiatives was associated (R2=0.76) with ‘Colleagues’ call for local results’ (p=<0.001), ‘Management Request of Registry data’ (p=<0.001), and it was said to be ‘Simple to explain the results to colleagues’ (p=0.02). Using stepwise regression, ‘Colleagues’ call for local results’ was identified as the most influential factor. Yet, while 73% reported that managers request registry data, only 39% reported that their colleagues call for the unit's Riksstroke results. Conclusions: While an NQR like Riksstroke demonstrates improvement needs and motivates stakeholders to make progress, local stroke care staff and managers need to engage to keep the momentum going in terms of applying registry data when planning, performing and evaluating quality initiatives.

Prediction of adult height in girls: the Beunen-MalinaFreitas method

The purpose of this study was to validate and cross-validate the Beunen-Malina-Freitas method for non-invasive prediction of adult height in girls. A sample of 420 girls aged 10–15 years from the Madeira Growth Study were measured at yearly intervals and then 8 years later. Anthropometric dimensions (lengths, breadths, circumferences, and skinfolds) were measured; skeletal age was assessed using the Tanner-Whitehouse 3 method and menarcheal status (present or absent) was recorded. Adult height was measured and predicted using stepwise, forward, and maximum R2 regression techniques. Multiple correlations, mean differences, standard errors of prediction, and error boundaries were calculated. A sample of the Leuven Longitudinal Twin Study was used to cross-validate the regressions. Age-specific coefficients of determination (R2) between predicted and measured adult height varied between 0.57 and 0.96, while standard errors of prediction varied between 1.1 and 3.9 cm. The cross-validation confirmed the validity of the Beunen-Malina-Freitas method in girls aged 12–15 years, but at lower ages the cross-validation was less consistent. We conclude that the Beunen-Malina-Freitas method is valid for the prediction of adult height in girls aged 12–15 years. It is applicable to European populations or populations of European ancestry.

Distribution modelling of wild rabbit hunting yields in its original area (S Iberian Peninsula)

In this work we used the information of the Annual Hunting Reports (AHRs) to obtain a high-resolution model of the potential favourableness for wild rabbit harvesting in Andalusia (southern Spain), using environmental and land-use variables as predictors. We analysed 32,134 AHRs from the period 1993/2001 reported by 6049 game estates to estimate the average hunting yields of wild rabbit in each Andalusian municipality (n5771). We modelled the favourableness for obtaining good hunting yields using stepwise logistic regression on a set of climatic, orographical, land use, and vegetation variables. The favourability equation was used to create a downscaled image representing the favourableness of obtaining good hunting yields for the wild rabbit in 161 km squares in Andalusia, using the Idrisi Image Calculator. The variables that affected hunting yields of wild rabbit were altitude, dry wood crops (mainly olive groves, almond groves, and vineyards), temperature, pasture, slope, and annual number of frost days. The 161 km squares with high favourableness values are scattered throughout the territory, which seems to be caused mainly by the effect of vegetation. Finally, we obtained quality categories for the territory by combining the probability values given by logistic regression with those of the environmental favourability function.

Geographical patterns of the species richness of helminth parasites of moles (Talpa spp.) in Spain: Separating the effects of sampling effort from those of other conditioning factors

We analysed the viscera of 534 moles (Ta l p a spp.) from 30 of the 47 provinces of peninsular Spain, including 255 individuals of T. europaea from eight provinces, 154 individuals of T. occidentalis from 20 provinces, and 125 unidentified Ta l p a individuals from two provinces. We identified their helminth parasites and determined parasite species richness. We related parasite species richness with sampling effort using both a linear and a logarithmic function. We then performed stepwise linear regressions to predict mole parasite species richness from a small set of selected predictor variables that included sampling effort. We applied the resulting models to forecast T. euro p a e a, T. occidentalis, and Ta l p a spp. parasite species richness in all provinces with recorded host presence, assuming different levels of sampling eff o r t . F i n a l l y, we used partial regression analysis to partition the variation explained by each of the selected variables in the models. We found that mole parasite species richness is strongly conditioned by sampling effort, but that other factors such as cropland area and environmental disturbance have significant independent effects.

Land use and environmental factors affecting red-legged partridge (Alectoris rufa) hunting yields in southern Spain

The red-legged partridge is a small game species widely hunted in southern Spain. Its commercial use has important socioeconomic effects in rural areas where other agrarian uses are of marginal importance. The aims of the present work were to identify areas in Andalusia (southern Spain) where game yields for the red-legged partridge reach high values and to establish the environmental and land use factors that determine them. We analysed 32,134 annual hunting reports (HRs) produced by 6,049 game estates during the hunting seasons 1993/1994 to 2001/2002 to estimate the average hunting yields of red-legged partridge in each Andalusian municipality (n=771). We modelled the favourability for obtaining good hunting yields using stepwise logistic regression on a set of climatic, topographical, land use and vegetation variables that were available as digital coverages or tabular data applied to municipalities. Good hunting yields occur mainly in plain areas located in the Guadalquivir valley, at the bottom of Betic Range and in the Betic depressions. Favourable areas are related to highly mechanised, lowelevation areas mainly dedicated to intensive dry crops. The most favourable areas predicted by our model are mainly located in the Guadalquivir valley.