Prioritization of Policies: A Prototype Model of a Flowchart Method

This paper builds a prototype model of how to prioritize policies by using a flowchart. We presented the following six steps to decide priorities of policies: Step 1 is to attain the social subsistence level (primary education, health care, and food sufficiency); Step 2 is to attain macroeconomic stability; Step 3 is to liberalize the economy by structural adjustment programs; Step 4 is capacity building specific to a growth strategy by facilitating sufficient infrastructure (physical infrastructure and institutions); Step 5 is to initiate a growth strategy; and Step 6 is to narrow income inequalities. We illustrated the effectiveness of our "flowchart method" in case studies of Morocco, Laos, Vietnam, and China. The first priority of reforms in Morocco was given to social sectors of primary education and health care, particularly in the rural areas at Step 1. Laos should not put much emphasis on growth strategy before educational reform, attainment of macroeconomic stability, and institutional capacity building at Steps 1, 2, and 3. Vietnam can focus on reforming the state-run enterprises and developing the stock markets at Step 5 of growth strategies. We found that we should apply our flowchart method to China not nation-wide but province-wide.

The emission reduction effect and economic impact of an energy tax vs. a carbon tax in China : a dynamic CGE model analysis

Chinese government commits to reach its peak carbon emissions before 2030, which requires China to implement new policies. Using a CGE model, this study conducts simulation studies on the functions of an energy tax and a carbon tax and analyzes their effects on macro-economic indices. The Chinese economy is affected at an acceptable level by the two taxes. GDP will lose less than 0.8% with a carbon tax of 100, 50, or 10 RMB/ton CO2 or 5% of the delivery price of an energy tax. Thus, the loss of real disposable personal income is smaller. Compared with implementing a single tax, a combined carbon and energy tax induces more emission reductions with relatively smaller economic costs. With these taxes, the domestic competitiveness of energy intensive industries is improved. Additionally, we found that the sooner such taxes are launched, the smaller the economic costs and the more significant the achieved emission reductions.

Variational Stereo Imaging of Oceanic Waves with Statistical Constraints

An image processing observational technique for the stereoscopic reconstruction of the wave form of oceanic sea states is developed. The technique incorporates the enforcement of any given statistical wave law modeling the quasi Gaussianity of oceanic waves observed in nature. The problem is posed in a variational optimization framework, where the desired wave form is obtained as the minimizer of a cost functional that combines image observations, smoothness priors and a weak statistical constraint. The minimizer is obtained combining gradient descent and multigrid methods on the necessary optimality equations of the cost functional. Robust photometric error criteria and a spatial intensity compensation model are also developed to improve the performance of the presented image matching strategy. The weak statistical constraint is thoroughly evaluated in combination with other elements presented to reconstruct and enforce constraints on experimental stereo data, demonstrating the improvement in the estimation of the observed ocean surface.

A new set of relativistic screening constants for the screened hydrogenic model

AnewRelativisticScreenedHydrogenicModel has been developed to calculate atomic data needed to compute the optical and thermodynamic properties of high energy density plasmas. The model is based on anewset of universal screeningconstants, including nlj-splitting that has been obtained by fitting to a large database of ionization potentials and excitation energies. This database was built with energies compiled from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) database of experimental atomic energy levels, and energies calculated with the Flexible Atomic Code (FAC). The screeningconstants have been computed up to the 5p3/2 subshell using a Genetic Algorithm technique with an objective function designed to minimize both the relative error and the maximum error. To select the best set of screeningconstants some additional physical criteria has been applied, which are based on the reproduction of the filling order of the shells and on obtaining the best ground state configuration. A statistical error analysis has been performed to test the model, which indicated that approximately 88% of the data lie within a ±10% error interval. We validate the model by comparing the results with ionization energies, transition energies, and wave functions computed using sophisticated self-consistent codes and experimental data.

Flujo de potencia entre estructuras complejas sometidas a excitaciones de alta frecuencia y aplicaciones a la detección de daño estructural

El tema central de investigación en esta Tesis es el estudio del comportamientodinámico de una estructura mediante modelos que describen la distribución deenergía entre los componentes de la misma y la aplicación de estos modelos parala detección de daños incipientes.Los ensayos dinámicos son un modo de extraer información sobre las propiedadesde una estructura. Si tenemos un modelo de la estructura se podría ajustar éstepara que, con determinado grado de precisión, tenga la misma respuesta que elsistema real ensayado. Después de que se produjese un daño en la estructura,la respuesta al mismo ensayo variará en cierta medida; actualizando el modelo alas nuevas condiciones podemos detectar cambios en la configuración del modeloestructural que nos condujeran a la conclusión de que en la estructura se haproducido un daño.De este modo, la detección de un daño incipiente es posible si somos capacesde distinguir una pequeña variación en los parámetros que definen el modelo. Unrégimen muy apropiado para realizar este tipo de detección es a altas frecuencias,ya que la respuesta es muy dependiente de los pequeños detalles geométricos,dado que el tamaño característico en la estructura asociado a la respuesta esdirectamente proporcional a la velocidad de propagación de las ondas acústicas enel sólido, que para una estructura dada es inalterable, e inversamente proporcionala la frecuencia de la excitación. Al mismo tiempo, esta característica de la respuestaa altas frecuencias hace que un modelo de Elementos Finitos no sea aplicable enla práctica, debido al alto coste computacional.Un modelo ampliamente utilizado en el cálculo de la respuesta de estructurasa altas frecuencias en ingeniería es el SEA (Statistical Energy Analysis). El SEAaplica el balance energético a cada componente estructural, relacionando la energíade vibración de estos con la potencia disipada por cada uno de ellos y la potenciatransmitida entre ellos, cuya suma debe ser igual a la potencia inyectada a cadacomponente estructural. Esta relación es lineal y viene caracterizada por los factoresde pérdidas. Las magnitudes que intervienen en la respuesta se consideranpromediadas en la geometría, la frecuencia y el tiempo.Actualizar el modelo SEA a datos de ensayo es, por lo tanto, calcular losfactores de pérdidas que reproduzcan la respuesta obtenida en éste. Esta actualización,si se hace de manera directa, supone la resolución de un problema inversoque tiene la característica de estar mal condicionado. En la Tesis se propone actualizarel modelo SEA, no en término de los factores de pérdidas, sino en términos deparámetros estructurales que tienen sentido físico cuando se trata de la respuestaa altas frecuencias, como son los factores de disipación de cada componente, susdensidades modales y las rigideces características de los elementos de acoplamiento.Los factores de pérdidas se calculan como función de estos parámetros. Estaformulación es desarrollada de manera original en esta Tesis y principalmente sefunda en la hipótesis de alta densidad modal, es decir, que en la respuesta participanun gran número de modos de cada componente estructural.La teoría general del método SEA, establece que el modelo es válido bajounas hipótesis sobre la naturaleza de las excitaciones externas muy restrictivas,como que éstas deben ser de tipo ruido blanco local. Este tipo de carga es difícil dereproducir en condiciones de ensayo. En la Tesis mostramos con casos prácticos queesta restricción se puede relajar y, en particular, los resultados son suficientementebuenos cuando la estructura se somete a una carga armónica en escalón.Bajo estas aproximaciones se desarrolla un algoritmo de optimización por pasosque permite actualizar un modelo SEA a un ensayo transitorio cuando la carga esde tipo armónica en escalón. Este algoritmo actualiza el modelo no solamente parauna banda de frecuencia en particular sino para diversas bandas de frecuencia demanera simultánea, con el objetivo de plantear un problema mejor condicionado.Por último, se define un índice de daño que mide el cambio en la matriz depérdidas cuando se produce un daño estructural en una localización concreta deun componente. Se simula numéricamente la respuesta de una estructura formadapor vigas donde producimos un daño en la sección de una de ellas; como se tratade un cálculo a altas frecuencias, la simulación se hace mediante el Método delos Elementos Espectrales para lo que ha sido necesario desarrollar dentro de laTesis un elemento espectral de tipo viga dañada en una sección determinada. Losresultados obtenidos permiten localizar el componente estructural en que se haproducido el daño y la sección en que éste se encuentra con determinado grado deconfianza.AbstractThe main subject under research in this Thesis is the study of the dynamic behaviourof a structure using models that describe the energy distribution betweenthe components of the structure and the applicability of these models to incipientdamage detection.Dynamic tests are a way to extract information about the properties of astructure. If we have a model of the structure, it can be updated in order toreproduce the same response as in experimental tests, within a certain degree ofaccuracy. After damage occurs, the response will change to some extent; modelupdating to the new test conditions can help to detect changes in the structuralmodel leading to the conclusión that damage has occurred.In this way incipient damage detection is possible if we are able to detect srnallvariations in the model parameters. It turns out that the high frequency regimeis highly relevant for incipient damage detection, because the response is verysensitive to small structural geometric details. The characteristic length associatedwith the response is proportional to the propagation speed of acoustic waves insidethe solid, but inversely proportional to the excitation frequency. At the same time,this fact makes the application of a Finite Element Method impractical due to thehigh computational cost.A widely used model in engineering when dealing with the high frequencyresponse is SEA (Statistical Energy Analysis). SEA applies the energy balance toeach structural component, relating their vibrational energy with the dissipatedpower and the transmitted power between the different components; their summust be equal to the input power to each of them. This relationship is linear andcharacterized by loss factors. The magnitudes considered in the response shouldbe averaged in geometry, frequency and time.SEA model updating to test data is equivalent to calculating the loss factorsthat provide a better fit to the experimental response. This is formulated as an illconditionedinverse problem. In this Thesis a new updating algorithm is proposedfor the study of the high frequency response regime in terms of parameters withphysical meaning such as the internal dissipation factors, modal densities andcharacteristic coupling stiffness. The loss factors are then calculated from theseparameters. The approach is developed entirely in this Thesis and is mainlybased on a high modal density asumption, that is to say, a large number of modescontributes to the response.General SEA theory establishes the validity of the model under the asumptionof very restrictive external excitations. These should behave as a local white noise.This kind of excitation is difficult to reproduce in an experimental environment.In this Thesis we show that in practical cases this assumption can be relaxed, inparticular, results are good enough when the structure is excited with a harmonicstep function.Under these assumptions an optimization algorithm is developed for SEAmodel updating to a transient test when external loads are harmonic step functions.This algorithm considers the response not only in a single frequency band,but also for several of them simultaneously.A damage index is defined that measures the change in the loss factor matrixwhen a damage has occurred at a certain location in the structure. The structuresconsidered in this study are built with damaged beam elements; as we are dealingwith the high frequency response, the numerical simulation is implemented witha Spectral Element Method. It has therefore been necessary to develop a spectralbeam damaged element as well. The reported results show that damage detectionis possible with this algorithm, moreover, damage location is also possible withina certain degree of accuracy.

Application of photoluminescence and electroluminescence techniques to the characterization of intermediate band solar cells

The intermediatebandsolarcell (IBSC) is a photovoltaic device with a theoretical conversion efficiency limit of 63.2%. In recent years many attempts have been made to fabricate an intermediateband material which behaves as the theory states. One characteristic feature of an IBSC is its luminescence spectrum. In this work the temperature dependence of the photoluminescence (PL) and electroluminescence (EL) spectra of InAs/GaAs QD-IBSCs together with their reference cell have been studied. It is shown that EL measurements provide more reliable information about the behaviour of the IB material inside the IBSC structure than PL measurements. At low temperatures, the EL spectra are consistent with the quasi-Fermi level splits described by the IBSC model, whereas at room temperature they are not. This result is in agreement with previously reported analysis of the quantum efficiency of the solarcells

Vision-based vehicle detection and tracking with a mobile camera using a statistical framework

En esta tesis se aborda la detección y el seguimiento automático de vehículos mediante técnicas de visión artificial con una cámara monocular embarcada. Este problema ha suscitado un gran interés por parte de la industria automovilística y de la comunidad científica ya que supone el primer paso en aras de la ayuda a la conducción, la prevención de accidentes y, en última instancia, la conducción automática. A pesar de que se le ha dedicado mucho esfuerzo en los últimos años, de momento no se ha encontrado ninguna solución completamente satisfactoria y por lo tanto continúa siendo un tema de investigación abierto. Los principales problemas que plantean la detección y seguimiento mediante visión artificial son la gran variabilidad entre vehículos, un fondo que cambia dinámicamente debido al movimiento de la cámara, y la necesidad de operar en tiempo real. En este contexto, esta tesis propone un marco unificado para la detección y seguimiento de vehículos que afronta los problemas descritos mediante un enfoque estadístico. El marco se compone de tres grandes bloques, i.e., generación de hipótesis, verificación de hipótesis, y seguimiento de vehículos, que se llevan a cabo de manera secuencial. No obstante, se potencia el intercambio de información entre los diferentes bloques con objeto de obtener el máximo grado posible de adaptación a cambios en el entorno y de reducir el coste computacional. Para abordar la primera tarea de generación de hipótesis, se proponen dos métodos complementarios basados respectivamente en el análisis de la apariencia y la geometría de la escena. Para ello resulta especialmente interesante el uso de un dominio transformado en el que se elimina la perspectiva de la imagen original, puesto que este dominio permite una búsqueda rápida dentro de la imagen y por tanto una generación eficiente de hipótesis de localización de los vehículos. Los candidatos finales se obtienen por medio de un marco colaborativo entre el dominio original y el dominio transformado. Para la verificación de hipótesis se adopta un método de aprendizaje supervisado. Así, se evalúan algunos de los métodos de extracción de características más populares y se proponen nuevos descriptores con arreglo al conocimiento de la apariencia de los vehículos. Para evaluar la efectividad en la tarea de clasificación de estos descriptores, y dado que no existen bases de datos públicas que se adapten al problema descrito, se ha generado una nueva base de datos sobre la que se han realizado pruebas masivas. Finalmente, se presenta una metodología para la fusión de los diferentes clasificadores y se plantea una discusión sobre las combinaciones que ofrecen los mejores resultados. El núcleo del marco propuesto está constituido por un método Bayesiano de seguimiento basado en filtros de partículas. Se plantean contribuciones en los tres elementos fundamentales de estos filtros: el algoritmo de inferencia, el modelo dinámico y el modelo de observación. En concreto, se propone el uso de un método de muestreo basado en MCMC que evita el elevado coste computacional de los filtros de partículas tradicionales y por consiguiente permite que el modelado conjunto de múltiples vehículos sea computacionalmente viable. Por otra parte, el dominio transformado mencionado anteriormente permite la definición de un modelo dinámico de velocidad constante ya que se preserva el movimiento suave de los vehículos en autopistas. Por último, se propone un modelo de observación que integra diferentes características. En particular, además de la apariencia de los vehículos, el modelo tiene en cuenta también toda la información recibida de los bloques de procesamiento previos. El método propuesto se ejecuta en tiempo real en un ordenador de propósito general y da unos resultados sobresalientes en comparación con los métodos tradicionales. ABSTRACT This thesis addresses on-road vehicle detection and tracking with a monocular vision system. This problem has attracted the attention of the automotive industry and the research community as it is the first step for driver assistance and collision avoidance systems and for eventual autonomous driving. Although many effort has been devoted to address it in recent years, no satisfactory solution has yet been devised and thus it is an active research issue. The main challenges for vision-based vehicle detection and tracking are the high variability among vehicles, the dynamically changing background due to camera motion and the real-time processing requirement. In this thesis, a unified approach using statistical methods is presented for vehicle detection and tracking that tackles these issues. The approach is divided into three primary tasks, i.e., vehicle hypothesis generation, hypothesis verification, and vehicle tracking, which are performed sequentially. Nevertheless, the exchange of information between processing blocks is fostered so that the maximum degree of adaptation to changes in the environment can be achieved and the computational cost is alleviated. Two complementary strategies are proposed to address the first task, i.e., hypothesis generation, based respectively on appearance and geometry analysis. To this end, the use of a rectified domain in which the perspective is removed from the original image is especially interesting, as it allows for fast image scanning and coarse hypothesis generation. The final vehicle candidates are produced using a collaborative framework between the original and the rectified domains. A supervised classification strategy is adopted for the verification of the hypothesized vehicle locations. In particular, state-of-the-art methods for feature extraction are evaluated and new descriptors are proposed by exploiting the knowledge on vehicle appearance. Due to the lack of appropriate public databases, a new database is generated and the classification performance of the descriptors is extensively tested on it. Finally, a methodology for the fusion of the different classifiers is presented and the best combinations are discussed. The core of the proposed approach is a Bayesian tracking framework using particle filters. Contributions are made on its three key elements: the inference algorithm, the dynamic model and the observation model. In particular, the use of a Markov chain Monte Carlo method is proposed for sampling, which circumvents the exponential complexity increase of traditional particle filters thus making joint multiple vehicle tracking affordable. On the other hand, the aforementioned rectified domain allows for the definition of a constant-velocity dynamic model since it preserves the smooth motion of vehicles in highways. Finally, a multiple-cue observation model is proposed that not only accounts for vehicle appearance but also integrates the available information from the analysis in the previous blocks. The proposed approach is proven to run near real-time in a general purpose PC and to deliver outstanding results compared to traditional methods.

Proposal of an Alternative Model for Speed-Flow Relationship in Two-Lane Highways

A research has been carried out in two-lanehighways in the Madrid Region to propose an alternativemodel for the speed-flowrelationship using regular loop data. The model is different in shape and, in some cases, slopes with respect to the contents of Highway Capacity Manual (HCM). A model is proposed for a mountainous area road, something for which the HCM does not provide explicitly a solution. The problem of a mountain road with high flows to access a popular recreational area is discussed, and some solutions are proposed. Up to 7 one-way sections of two-lanehighways have been selected, aiming at covering a significant number of different characteristics, to verify the proposed method the different classes of highways on which the Manual classifies them. In order to enunciate the model and to verify the basic variables of these types of roads a high number of data have been used. The counts were collected in the same way that the Madrid Region Highway Agency performs their counts. A total of 1.471 hours have been collected, in periods of 5 minutes. The models have been verified by means of specific statistical test (R2, T-Student, Durbin-Watson, ANOVA, etc.) and with the diagnostics of the contrast of assumptions (normality, linearity, homoscedasticity and independence). The model proposed for this type of highways with base conditions, can explain the different behaviors as traffic volumes increase, and follows a polynomial multiple regression model of order 3, S shaped. As secondary results of this research, the levels of service and the capacities of this road have been measured with the 2000 HCM methodology, and the results discussed. © 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.