The population dynamics of disease on short and long time-scales

Observational evidence is scarce concerning the distribution of plant pathogen population sizes or densities as a function of time-scale or spatial scale. For wild pathosystems we can only get indirect evidence from evolutionary patterns and the consequences of biological invasions.We have little or no evidence bearing on extermination of hosts by pathogens, or successful escape of a host from a pathogen. Evidence over the last couple of centuries from crops suggest that the abundance of particular pathogens in the spectrum affecting a given host can vary hugely on decadal timescales. However, this may be an artefact of domestication and intensive cultivation. Host-pathogen dynamics can be formulated mathematically fairly easily–for example as SIR-type differential equation or difference equation models, and this has been the (successful) focus of recent work in crops. “Long-term” is then discussed in terms of the time taken to relax from a perturbation to the asymptotic state. However, both host and pathogen dynamics are driven by environmental factors as well as their mutual interactions, and both host and pathogen co-evolve, and evolve in response to external factors. We have virtually no information about the importance and natural role of higher trophic levels (hyperpathogens) and competitors, but they could also induce long-scale fluctuations in the abundance of pathogens on particular hosts. In wild pathosystems the host distribution cannot be modelled as either a uniform density or even a uniform distribution of fields (which could then be treated as individuals). Patterns of short term density-dependence and the detail of host distribution are therefore critical to long-term dynamics. Host density distributions are not usually scale-free, but are rarely uniform or clearly structured on a single scale. In a (multiply structured) metapopulation with coevolution and external disturbances it could well be the case that the time required to attain equilibrium (if it exists) based on conditions stable over a specified time-scale is longer than that time-scale. Alternatively, local equilibria may be reached fairly rapidly following perturbations but the meta-population equilibrium be attained very slowly. In either case, meta-stability on various time-scales is a more relevant than equilibrium concepts in explaining observed patterns.

Evaluation of boundary-layer type in a weather forecast model utilising long-term Doppler lidar observations

Many studies evaluating model boundary-layer schemes focus either on near-surface parameters or on short-term observational campaigns. This reflects the observational datasets that are widely available for use in model evaluation. In this paper we show how surface and long-term Doppler lidar observations, combined in a way to match model representation of the boundary layer as closely as possible, can be used to evaluate the skill of boundary-layer forecasts. We use a 2-year observational dataset from a rural site in the UK to evaluate a climatology of boundary layer type forecast by the UK Met Office Unified Model. In addition, we demonstrate the use of a binary skill score (Symmetric Extremal Dependence Index) to investigate the dependence of forecast skill on season, horizontal resolution and forecast leadtime. A clear diurnal and seasonal cycle can be seen in the climatology of both the model and observations, with the main discrepancies being the model overpredicting cumulus capped and decoupled stratocumulus capped boundary-layers and underpredicting well mixed boundary-layers. Using the SEDI skill score the model is most skillful at predicting the surface stability. The skill of the model in predicting cumulus capped and stratocumulus capped stable boundary layer forecasts is low but greater than a 24 hr persistence forecast. In contrast, the prediction of decoupled boundary-layers and boundary-layers with multiple cloud layers is lower than persistence. This process based evaluation approach has the potential to be applied to other boundary-layer parameterisation schemes with similar decision structures.

Long term changes in EUV and X-ray emissions from the solar corona and chromosphere as measured by the response of the Earth’s ionosphere during total solar eclipses from 1932 to 1999

Measurements of the ionospheric E region during total solar eclipses in the period 1932-1999 have been used to investigate the fraction of Extreme Ultra Violet and soft X-ray radiation, phi, that is emitted from the limb corona and chromosphere. The relative apparent sizes of the Moon and the Sun are different for each eclipse, and techniques are presented which correct the measurements and, therefore, allow direct comparisons between different eclipses. The results show that the fraction of ionising radiation emitted by the limb corona has a clear solar cycle variation and that the underlying trend shows this fraction has been increasing since 1932. Data from the SOHO spacecraft are used to study the effects of short-term variability and it is shown that the observed long-term rise in phi has a negligible probability of being a chance occurrence.

Development of speech fluency over a short period of time: effects of pedagogic intervention

This study investigates the effects of a short-term pedagogic intervention on the development of L2 fluency among learners studying English for Academic purposes (EAP) at a university in the UK. It also examines the interaction between the development of fluency, and complexity and accuracy. Through a pre-test, post-test design, data were collected over a period of four weeks from learners performing monologic tasks. While the Control Group (CG) focused on developing general speaking and listening skills, the Experimental Group (EG) received awareness-raising activities and fluency strategy training in addition to general speaking and listening practice i.e following the syllabus. The data, coded in terms of a range of measures of fluency, accuracy and complexity, were subjected to repeated measures MANOVA, t-tests and correlations. The results indicate that after the intervention, while some fluency gains were achieved by the CG, the EG produced statistically more fluent language demonstrating a faster speech and articulation rate, longer runs and higher phonation time ratios. The significant correlations obtained between measures of accuracy and learners’ pauses in the CG suggest that pausing opportunities may have been linked to accuracy. The findings of the study have significant implications for L2 pedagogy, highlighting the effective impact of instruction on the development of fluency.

Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants

This paper presents a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). ECLIPSE had a unique systematic concept for designing a realistic and effective mitigation scenario for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs; methane, aerosols and ozone, and their precursor species) and quantifying its climate and air quality impacts, and this paper presents the results in the context of this overarching strategy. The first step in ECLIPSE was to create a new emission inventory based on current legislation (CLE) for the recent past and until 2050. Substantial progress compared to previous work was made by including previously unaccounted types of sources such as flaring of gas associated with oil production, and wick lamps. These emission data were used for present-day reference simulations with four advanced Earth system models (ESMs) and six chemistry transport models (CTMs). The model simulations were compared with a variety of ground-based and satellite observational data sets from Asia, Europe and the Arctic. It was found that the models still underestimate the measured seasonality of aerosols in the Arctic but to a lesser extent than in previous studies. Problems likely related to the emissions were identified for northern Russia and India, in particular. To estimate the climate impacts of SLCPs, ECLIPSE followed two paths of research: the first path calculated radiative forcing (RF) values for a large matrix of SLCP species emissions, for different seasons and regions independently. Based on these RF calculations, the Global Temperature change Potential metric for a time horizon of 20 years (GTP20) was calculated for each SLCP emission type. This climate metric was then used in an integrated assessment model to identify all emission mitigation measures with a beneficial air quality and short-term (20-year) climate impact. These measures together defined a SLCP mitigation (MIT) scenario. Compared to CLE, the MIT scenario would reduce global methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) emissions by about 50 and 80 %, respectively. For CH4, measures on shale gas production, waste management and coal mines were most important. For non-CH4 SLCPs, elimination of high-emitting vehicles and wick lamps, as well as reducing emissions from gas flaring, coal and biomass stoves, agricultural waste, solvents and diesel engines were most important. These measures lead to large reductions in calculated surface concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. We estimate that in the EU, the loss of statistical life expectancy due to air pollution was 7.5 months in 2010, which will be reduced to 5.2 months by 2030 in the CLE scenario. The MIT scenario would reduce this value by another 0.9 to 4.3 months. Substantially larger reductions due to the mitigation are found for China (1.8 months) and India (11–12 months). The climate metrics cannot fully quantify the climate response. Therefore, a second research path was taken. Transient climate ensemble simulations with the four ESMs were run for the CLE and MIT scenarios, to determine the climate impacts of the mitigation. In these simulations, the CLE scenario resulted in a surface temperature increase of 0.70 ± 0.14 K between the years 2006 and 2050. For the decade 2041–2050, the warming was reduced by 0.22 ± 0.07 K in the MIT scenario, and this result was in almost exact agreement with the response calculated based on the emission metrics (reduced warming of 0.22 ± 0.09 K). The metrics calculations suggest that non-CH4 SLCPs contribute ~ 22 % to this response and CH4 78 %. This could not be fully confirmed by the transient simulations, which attributed about 90 % of the temperature response to CH4 reductions. Attribution of the observed temperature response to non-CH4 SLCP emission reductions and BC specifically is hampered in the transient simulations by small forcing and co-emitted species of the emission basket chosen. Nevertheless, an important conclusion is that our mitigation basket as a whole would lead to clear benefits for both air quality and climate. The climate response from BC reductions in our study is smaller than reported previously, possibly because our study is one of the first to use fully coupled climate models, where unforced variability and sea ice responses cause relatively strong temperature fluctuations that may counteract (and, thus, mask) the impacts of small emission reductions. The temperature responses to the mitigation were generally stronger over the continents than over the oceans, and with a warming reduction of 0.44 K (0.39–0.49) K the largest over the Arctic. Our calculations suggest particularly beneficial climate responses in southern Europe, where surface warming was reduced by about 0.3 K and precipitation rates were increased by about 15 (6–21) mm yr−1 (more than 4 % of total precipitation) from spring to autumn. Thus, the mitigation could help to alleviate expected future drought and water shortages in the Mediterranean area. We also report other important results of the ECLIPSE project.

Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections

Model simulations of the next few decades are widely used in assessments of climate change impacts and as guidance for adaptation. Their non-linear nature reveals a level of irreducible uncertainty which it is important to understand and quantify, especially for projections of near-term regional climate. Here we use large idealised initial condition ensembles of the FAMOUS global climate model with a 1 %/year compound increase in CO2 levels to quantify the range of future temperatures in model-based projections. These simulations explore the role of both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions and are the largest such ensembles to date. Short-term simulated trends in global temperature are diverse, and cooling periods are more likely to be followed by larger warming rates. The spatial pattern of near-term temperature change varies considerably, but the proportion of the surface showing a warming is more consistent. In addition, ensemble spread in inter-annual temperature declines as the climate warms, especially in the North Atlantic. Over Europe, atmospheric initial condition uncertainty can, for certain ocean initial conditions, lead to 20 year trends in winter and summer in which every location can exhibit either strong cooling or rapid warming. However, the details of the distribution are highly sensitive to the ocean initial condition chosen and particularly the state of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. On longer timescales, the warming signal becomes more clear and consistent amongst different initial condition ensembles. An ensemble using a range of different oceanic initial conditions produces a larger spread in temperature trends than ensembles using a single ocean initial condition for all lead times. This highlights the potential benefits from initialising climate predictions from ocean states informed by observations. These results suggest that climate projections need to be performed with many more ensemble members than at present, using a range of ocean initial conditions, if the uncertainty in near-term regional climate is to be adequately quantified.

Lymphocyte and Cytokines after Short Periods of Exercise

The purpose of this study was to verify the effects of short periods of exercise of different intensity on lymphocyte function and cytokines. Thirty Wistar rats, 2 months old, were used. They were divided into five groups of six rats: a sedentary control group; a group exercised for 5 minutes at low intensity (5 L): a group exercised for 15 minutes at low intensity (15 L); and groups exercised at moderate intensity (additional load of 5% of body weight) for 5 minutes (5 M) or for 15 minutes (15 M). The parameters measured were: total leukocytes, neutrophils, lymphocytes, monocytes, lymphocytes from lymph nodes, serum cytokines (IL-2, IL-6 and TNF-alpha), lymphocyte mitochondrial transmembrane potential, viability and DNA fragmentation. ANOVA two way followed by Tukey`s post hoc test (p <= 0.05) was used. The exercised groups exhibited a significant increase in total leukocytes, tissue and circulating lymphocytes in comparison with the control group. There was a significant decrease in lymphocyte viability and decrease in DNA fragmentation for the 15 M group when compared with the control. There was a decrease in the level TNF-alpha in the 5 M and 15 M groups. Short-term, low- and moderate-intensity exercise may be considered for sedentary individuals beginning to exercise, since no deleterious alterations were observed in lymphocyte function.

Long-term intermittent feeding, but not caloric restriction, leads to redox imbalance, insulin receptor nitration, and glucose intolerance

Calorie restriction is a dietary intervention known to improve redox state, glucose tolerance, and animal life span. Other interventions have been adopted as study models for caloric restriction, including nonsupplemented food restriction and intermittent, every-other-day feedings. We compared the short- and long-term effects of these interventions to ad libitum protocols and found that, although all restricted diets decrease body weight, intermittent feeding did not decrease intra-abdominal adiposity. Short-term calorie restriction and intermittent feeding presented similar results relative to glucose tolerance. Surprisingly, long-term intermittent feeding promoted glucose intolerance, without a loss in insulin receptor phosphorylation. Intermittent feeding substantially increased insulin receptor nitration in both intra-abdominal adipose tissue and muscle, a modification associated with receptor inactivation. All restricted diets enhanced nitric oxide synthase levels in the insulin-responsive adipose tissue and skeletal muscle. However, whereas calorie restriction improved tissue redox state, food restriction and intermittent feedings did not. In fact, long-term intermittent feeding resulted in largely enhanced tissue release of oxidants. Overall, our results show that restricted diets are significantly different in their effects on glucose tolerance and redox state when adopted long-term. Furthermore, we show that intermittent feeding can lead to oxidative insulin receptor inactivation and glucose intolerance. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term flowering patterns of melliferous Eucalyptus (Myrtaceae) species

The flowering patterns of 28 Victorian melliferous (honey-producing) eucalypts were investigated by using long-term observations of highly experienced, commercial apiarists. Frequency, timing, duration and intensity of flowering were determined, as were spatial differences within and among species. Data were obtained by face-to-face interviews with 25 Victorian apiarists, each of whom had operated a minimum of 350 hives for a minimum of 30 years. Flowering frequency ranged from 1 to 7 years, and most species flowered once every 2–4 years. Long-term flowering frequency, timing and duration were reported as constant, although short-term perturbations could occur. Most melliferous species flowered during spring and summer for a period of 3 months or more. Only few species had shorter flowering periods. Information provided by apiarists compared well with available published information (e.g. flowering period reported in field guides) and revealed a reliable, largely untapped source of long-term data, the use of which could benefit many ecological research endeavours.

Short-run performance of recent Australian on-market share buy-back announcements

Share buy-backs (or share repurchases) have become increasingly popular among Australian companies during the recent times. One of the aims of share buy-back is to increase the shareholders' wealth by increasing the market price of company shares. While there are several ways of buying backs shares, on-market buy-backs is the most popular method of share repurchase in Australia. Australian listed companies have announced more than two hundred on-market share buy-backs over the past three years. The aim of this paper is to examine the short-run market performance of these recent on-market buy-back announcements.

Short-term effect of on-market buy-back announcements on the share price is an issue, which is theoretically interesting and practically important. Buy-back announcements are believed to convey a signal to the market (i.e., signalling effect). If the market considers this signal positively, the short-run price of the shares would increase. If the signal were considered negatively, the short-run price of shares would decrease. If there is no signalling content or the signal is neutral the price would remain the same. In this study, signalling effect of share buy-back announcements is empirically examined using most recent Australian data. The total population of on-market buy-back announcements that have been lodged with Australian Stock Exchange by Australian listed companies during the period from 1 January 2000 to 10 March 2003 are included in this study. The abnormal market return over the short-run (announcement day and 10 trading days centred on the announcement date) is examined using the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index as the reference portfolio. The daily abnormal returns (AR) and cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) during the event period are computed. The results indicate that the Australian market generally positively reacts to on-market buy-back announcements.

Long-term effects of a reduced fat diet intervention on cardiovascular disease risk factors in individuals with glucose intolerance

The long-term effects on cardiovascular disease risk factors of a reduced fat (RF), ad libitum diet were compared with usual diet (control, CD) in glucose intolerance individuals.

Participants were 136 adults aged ≥40 years with ‘glucose intolerance’ (2 h blood glucose 7–11.0 mmol/l) detected at a Diabetes Survey who completed at 1 year intervention study of reduced fat, ad libitum diet versus usual diet. They were re-assessed at 2, 3 and 5 years. Main outcome measures were blood pressure, serum concentrations of total cholesterol, HDL and LDL cholesterol, total cholesterol:HDL ratio, triglycerides and body weight.

The reduced fat diet lowered total cholesterol (P<0.01), LDL cholesterol (P≤0.05), total cholesterol:HDL ratio (P≤0.05), body weight (P<0.01) and systolic blood pressure (P≤0.05) initially and diastolic blood pressure (P<0.01) long-term. No significant changes occurred in HDL cholesterol or triglycerides. In the more compliant 50% of the intervention group, systolic and diastolic blood pressure levels and body weight were lower at 1, 2 and 3 years (P<0.05).

It was concluded that a reduced fat ad libitum diet has short-term benefits for cholesterol, body weight and systolic blood pressure and long-term benefits for diastolic blood pressure without significantly effecting HDL cholesterol and triglycerides despite participants regaining their lost weight.

Histological assessment of intermediate - and long-term creatine monohydrate supplementation in mice and rats

Creatine monohydrate (CrM) supplementation appears to be relatively safe based on data from short-term and intermediate-term human studies and results from several therapeutic trials. The purpose of the current study was to characterize pathological changes after intermediate-term and long-term CrM supplementation in mice [healthy control and SOD1 (G93A) transgenic] and rats (prednisolone and nonprednisolone treated). Histological assessment (18-20 organs/tissues) was performed on G93A mice after 159 days, and in Sprague-Dawley rats after 365 days, of CrM supplementation (2% wt/wt) compared with control feed. Liver histology was also evaluated in CD-1 mice after 300 days of low-dose CrM supplementation (0.025 and 0.05 g · kg^-1 · day^-1) and in Sprague-Dawley rats after 52 days of CrM supplementation (2% wt/wt) with and without prednisolone. Areas of hepatitis were observed in the livers of the CrM-supplemented G93A mice (P < 0.05), with no significant inflammatory lesions in any of the other 18-20 tissues/organs that were evaluated. The CD-1 mice also showed significant hepatic inflammatory lesions (P < 0.05), yet there was no negative effect of CrM on liver histology in the Sprague-Dawley rats after intermediate-term or long-term supplementation nor was inflammation seen in any other tissues/organs (P = not significant). Dietary CrM supplementation can induce inflammatory changes in the liver of mice, but not rats. The observed inflammatory changes in the murine liver must be considered in the evaluation of hepatic metabolism in CrM-supplemented mice. Species differences must be considered in the evaluation of toxicological and physiological studies.

Will residential aged care facilities meet long-term demand?

Purpose – This paper aims to provide an invaluable insight into long-term forecasting of demand for aged care facilities. This will ensure the provision of adequate supply by government bodies, stakeholders and developers in order to meet the anticipated level of demand, without creating an over-supply or an under-supply scenario.

Design/methodology/approach – Using an innovative approach, different data sources were collectively used to forecast separate individual supply and demand levels, which were then examined together in order to measure the difference between the two variables between 2009-2020. A case study approach was used for Victoria, Australia.

Findings – The paper finds that, although there is excess supply between 2009-2010 and 2019-2020, the period between 2010 and 2019 will experience an under-supply period which cannot be easily rectified over the short term.

Research limitations/implications – The case study was limited to residential care facilities in Victoria, Australia, although some countries have substantially different age profiles and accommodation supply for older residents. Forecasts are based on information sources from various data suppliers and collectively analysed.

Practical implications – The results are also of direct interest to place managers and planning authorities who are charged with providing medium- and long-term visions and plans for specific locations. This type of research is essential when planning for the eventual aging of the population, where the methodology can be replicated in different areas. Most importantly, this research approach provides a solid basis for decisions regarding the supply of residential aged care facilities as opposed to a simple estimate.

Originality/value – The study adopted a unique approach to analysing the individual supply and demand components for aged care facilities over the long term. This approach is able to accurately determine when there will be an under-supply or over-supply situation and thus provide the opportunity to address the difference before it occurs. This will allow informed decisions about planning aged care facilities in the future to be made as required.

1H-NMR and mass spectrometric characterization of the metabolic response of juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) to long-term handling stress

Stressors of various kinds constantly affect fish both in the wild and in culture, examples being acute water temperature and quality changes, predation, handling, and confinement. Known physiological responses of fish to stress such as increases in plasma cortisol and glucose levels, are considered to be adaptive, allowing the animal to cope in the short term. Prolonged exposure to stressors however, has the potential to affect growth, immune function, and survival. Nonetheless, little is known about the mechanisms underlying the long-term stress response. We have investigated the metabolic response of juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) to long-term handling stress by analyzing fish plasma via ¹H nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and ultra high performance liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry (UPLC–MS), and comparing results with controls. Analysis of NMR data indicated a difference in the metabolic profiles of control and stressed fish after 1 week of stress with a maximum difference observed after 2 weeks. These differences were associated with stress-induced increases in phosphatidyl choline, lactate, carbohydrates, alanine, valine and trimethylamine-N-oxide, and decreases in low density lipoprotein, very low density lipoprotein, and lipid. UPLC-MS data showed differences at week 2, associated with another set of compounds, tentatively identified on the basis of their mass/charge. Overall the results provided a multi-faceted view of the response of fish to long-term handling stress, indicating that the metabolic disparity between the control and stress groups increased to week 2, but declined by weeks 3 and 4, and revealed several new molecular indicators of long-term stress.

The ideal Ileal-Pouch design : a long-term randomized control trial of J- vs W-pouch construction

BACKGROUND: The IPAA has become established as the preferred technique for restoring intestinal continuity postproctocolectomy. The ideal pouch design has not been established. W-pouches may give better functional results owing to increased volume, whereas the J-pouch’s advantage is its straightforward construction. We report short- and long-term results of an randomized control trial designed to establish the ideal pouch.

DESIGN: Ninety-four patients were randomly assigned to J- and W-pouches (49:45) and assessed at 1 and 8.7 years postoperatively. Assessment was questionnaire based and designed to assess pouch function and patient quality of life.

RESULTS: Eighty-five percent of patients were followed up at 1 year, and 68% were followed up at 8.7 years. At 1 year, there was a significant difference in 24-hour bowel movement frequency J- vs W-pouches 7 vs 5(p < 0.001) and in daytime frequency J- vs W-pouches 6 vs 4 (p < 0.001), with no difference in nocturnal function. At 9-year follow-up, function had equilibrated between the 2 groups: 24-hour bowel movement frequency J- vs W-pouches 6.5 vs 6 (p = 0.36), daytime frequency 5.5 vs 5 (p = 0.233), and nocturnal function 1 vs 1 (p = 0.987). Mean operating time of J- and W-pouches was 195 and 215 minutes (p < 0.05). All other parameters, pad usage, urgency, incontinence, and quality of life, did not differ significantly between groups.

CONCLUSION: These data demonstrate that the theoretical functional advantage conferred on the W-pouch by its greater volume exists only in the short term and is of little consequence to patients’ long-term quality of life. This advantage is attenuated as the pouches mature, resulting in no disparity in pouch function. This, combined with the more consistent, efficient, and easily taught construction of the J-pouch, should conclusively establish it as the optimum ileal-pouch design.