Simulating the impacts of global warming on wheat in China using a large area crop model

Temperature is one of the most prominent environmental factors that determine plant growth, devel- opment, and yield. Cool and moist conditions are most favorable for wheat. Wheat is likely to be highly vulnerable to further warming because currently the temperature is already close to or above optimum. In this study, the impacts of warming and extreme high temperature stress on wheat yield over China were investigated by using the general large area model (GLAM) for annual crops. The results showed that each 1±C rise in daily mean temperature would reduce the average wheat yield in China by about 4.6%{5.7% mainly due to the shorter growth duration, except for a small increase in yield at some grid cells. When the maximum temperature exceeded 30.5±C, the simulated grain-set fraction declined from 1 at 30.5±C to close to 0 at about 36±C. When the total grain-set was lower than the critical fractional grain-set (0.575{0.6), harvest index and potential grain yield were reduced. In order to reduce the negative impacts of warming, it is crucial to take serious actions to adapt to the climate change, for example, by shifting sowing date, adjusting crop distribution and structure, breeding heat-resistant varieties, and improving the monitoring, forecasting, and early warning of extreme climate events.

Spectacle and value in classical Hollywood cinema

This is a primarily meta-critical essay and is in direct dialogue with the argument presented in my essay on Gone with the Wind (published in 'Screen'). Here, however, the emphasis is much more on the challenge my definition of spectacle represents for important traditions of film analysis, particularly ‘mise-en-scène criticism’. I argue for the possibility of spectacle to form part of the ‘organic’ whole of a film’s texture and form, while noting the challenge the concept represents (by dint of certain ideological associations and its taint of commercialism) with ‘organicist’ traditions of interpretative film analysis.

The equatorial response to higher latitude forcing

The classic view, following Charney and Webster and Holton, is that significant midlatitude forcing of the Tropics can be expected only in regions with westerly winds in the upper troposphere because it is only in these regions that stationary Rossby waves will be able to propagate toward the equator. Here it is shown that higherlatitude forcing can project directly onto equatorial waves and give a significant tropical response in both easterly and westerly tropical flow. The equatorial response to higher-latitude forcing is considered in the context of a dry atmosphere and a localized higher-latitude forcing with eastward or westward phase speed. Previous ideas of the Doppler shifting of equatorial waves by zonal flows are extended to include consideration of a forcing involving a range of zonal wavenumbers. A Gill-type model suggests that there can be significant forcing of equatorial waves by either vorticity forcing or heating in higher latitudes. In agreement with the theory, the Kelvin wave response to eastward forcing is peaked at high frequencies/short periods but reduces only slowly with decreasing frequency. Primitive-equation experiments confirm the strong equatorial response associated with a deep Kelvin wave for forcing in midlatitudes. The response is strongest in the Eastern Hemisphere with its equatorial, upper-tropospheric easterlies. The possible importance of this equatorial response in the organization of large-scale, deep tropical convection and the initiation of the Madden–Julian oscillation is discussed. The ability of westward forcing in higher latitudes to trigger Rossby–gravity and Rossby waves is found in the primitive-equation model to be significant but rather less robust. These wave signatures are clearest in the lower troposphere. For shorter periods the Rossby–gravity wave dominates, and for upper-tropospheric forcing, downward and eastward wave activity propagation is seen. Upper-tropospheric westerlies are found to enhance the response.

Sleepwalking from New York to Miami

In the winter of 2007, Doug Aitken’s moving image installation, sleepwalkers, was projected onto the exterior walls of the Museum of Modern Art in New York. The project was a collaboration between Aitken, the museum and Creative Time, a New York-based organisation that commissions public art projects. A site-specific version of the installation has been commissioned by the Miami Art Museum for the opening of its new facility, designed by Swiss architects Herzog and de Meuron, in 2013: “sleepwalkers (Miami) will expand the work’s landscape and characters in a manner that reflects the diverse social fabric of Miami.” This essay examines sleepwalkers as an example of the emerging form of film as public art. There are three strands to my argument: first, an examination of the role of film in the redefinition of public art, shifting away from spatial practices concerned with fixed and permanent notions of space, community and art and towards transient and experimental spatial and artistic practices; second,a discussion of the relationship between projection and the built environment and the ways that the qualities of luminescence, transparency, movement and connectivity are transferred from projected images to the surfaces on which they are projected and the spaces around them; and third, an examination of the ways that sleepwalkers uses only certain aspects of narrativity, those concerned with movement and change, and avoids hermeneutic absorption in order to keep the spectators moving (transposing the idea of sleepwalking from characters to spectators). Transience and transparency are key ideas in the conceptualisation of the work, and these are deployed with significant differences in relation to the distinctive characteristics of each city and each museum.

The death of John Stuart Mill

This article surveys the fiercely contested posthumous assessments of John Stuart Mill in the newspaper and periodical press, in the months following his death in May 1873, and elicits the broader intellectual context. Judgements made in the immediate wake of Mill's death influence biographers and historians to this day and provide an illuminating aperture into the politics and shifting ideological forces of the period. The article considers how Mill's failure to control his posthumous reputation demonstrates both the inextricable intertwining of politics and character in the 1870s, and the difficulties his allies faced. In particular, it shows the sharp division between Mill's middle and working class admirers; the use of James Mill's name as a rebuke to his son; the redefinition of Malthusianism in the 1870s; and how publication of Mill's Autobiography damaged his reputation. Finally, the article considers the relative absence of both theological and Darwinian critiques of Mill.

From apotheosis to damnation: Mussolini and the Fascist regime, 1936-45

This is an essay for a catalogue of the exhibition 'Against Mussolini: art and the fall of a dictator' held at the Estorick Collection, London, September - December 2010. The essay examines shifting attitudes towards Mussolini in the years immediately preceding his fall, and suggests that the development of 'anti-fascism' was less pronounced than often suggested.

Considering heteroglossia in language and development in Sub-Saharan Africa

Countries throughout the sub-Saharan (SSA) region have a complex linguistic heritage having their origins in opportunistic boundary changes effected by Western colonial powers at the Berlin Conference 1884-85. Postcolonial language-in-education policies valorizing ex-colonial languages have contributed at least in part to underachievement in education and thus the underdevelopment of human resources in SSA countries. This situation is not likely to improve whilst unresolved questions concerning the choice of language(s) that would best support social and economic development remain. Whilst policy attempts to develop local languages have been discussed within the framework of the African Union, and some countries have experimented with models of multilingual education during the past decade, the goalposts have already changed as a result of migration and trade. This paper argues that language policy makers need to be cognizant of changing language ecologies and their relationship with emerging linguistic and economic markets. The concept of language, within such a framework, has to be viewed in relation to the multiplicity of language markets within the shifting landscapes of people, culture, economics and the geo-politics of the 21st Century. Whilst, on the one hand, this refers to the hegemony of dominant powerful languages and the social relations of disempowerment, on the other hand, it also refers to existing and evolving social spaces and local language capabilities and choices. Within this framework the article argues that socially constructed dominant macro language markets need to be viewed also in relation to other, self-defined, community meso- and individual micro- language markets and their possibilities for social, economic and political development. It is through pursuing this argument that this article assesses the validity of Omoniyi’s argument in this volume, for the need to focus on the concept of language capital within multilingual contexts in the SSA region as compared to Bourdieu’s concept of linguistic capital.  

Agricultural tenancy reform: the end of law; or a new popular culture?

This paper applies a reading of the postmodernisation of law to the incremental reform of agricultural holdings legislation over the last century. In charting the shifting legal basis of agricultural tenancies, from ‘black letter’ positivism to the cultural contextuality of sumptuary law, the paper theorises that the underlying political imperative has been allied to the changing significance of property ownership and use. Rather than reflecting the long-term official desire to maintain the let sector in British agriculture, however, the paper argues that this process has had other aims. In particular, it has been about an annexation of law to legitimise the retention of landowner power while presenting a rhetorical ‘democratisation’ of farming, away from its plutocratic associations and towards a new narrative of ‘depersonalised’ business.

Expectation versus provision in the management and use of urban open space

This paper discusses the implications of the shifting cultural significance of public open space in urban areas. In particular, it focuses on the increasing dysfunction between people's expectations of that space and its actual provision and management. In doing so, the paper applies Lefebvre's ideas of spatiality to the evident paradigm shift from 'public' to 'private' culture, with its associated commodification of previously public space. While developing the construct of paradigm shift, the paper recognises that the former political notions inherent in the provision of public space remain in evidence. So whereas public parks were formerly seen as spaces of confrontation between the 'rationality' of public order as the 'irrationality' of individual leisure pursuits, they are now increasingly seen, particularly 'out of hours', as the domain of the dispossessed, to be defined and policed as 'dangerous'. Where once people were welcomed into public open spaces as a means of 'educating' them in good, acceptable, leisure practices, therefore, they are now increasingly excluded, but for the same ostensible reasons. Building on survey work undertaken in Reading, Berkshire, the paper illustrates how communities can become separated from 'their' space, leaving them with the overriding impression that they have been 'short-changed' in terms of both the provision and the management of urban open space. Rather than the intimacy of local space for local people, therefore, the paper argues that parks have become externalised places, increasingly responding to commercial definitions of culture and what is 'public'. Central urban open spaces are therefore increasingly becoming sites of stratification, signification of a consumer-constructed citizenship and valorisation of public life as a legitimate element of the market surface of town and city centres.

Warfarin susceptibility in the lesser bandicoot rat (Bandicota bengalensis)

Warfarin is a first generation anticoagulant that relies on multiple feeding events to achieve lethality in susceptible rodents. For the Bandicoot rat, warfarin susceptibility baselines were established using the lethal feeding period (LFP) test methodology. Against a 0.003% warfarin formulation, LFP50 values of 2 and 4 days, and LFP99 values of 16 and 10 days were obtained for males and females respectively. However, consumption of rodenticide was significantly reduced after the 4th and 5th days of test, at a time when animals would be expected to experience symptoms of warfarin toxicity. This would seriously compromise the Probit analysis, particularly for estimates of higher percentiles. Possible modifications to the methodology are discussed to overcome this problem. Although the majority of animals were highly susceptible to warfarin, one female animal that survived a high dose of active ingredient (79.1 mg kg-1) may bode for future resistance

Resistance to the first and second generation anticoagulant rodenticides: a new perspective

Warfarin resistance was first discovered among Norway rat (Rattus norvegicus) populations in Scotland in 1958 and further reports of resistance, both in this species and in others, soon followed from other parts of Europe and the United States. Researchers quickly defined the practical impact of these resistance phenomena and developed robust methods by which to monitor their spread. These tasks were relatively simple because of the high degree of immunity to warfarin conferred by the resistance genes. Later, the second generation anticoagulants were introduced to control rodents resistant to the warfarin-like compounds, but resistance to difenacoum, bromadiolone and brodifacoum is now reported in certain localities in Europe and elsewhere. However, the adoption of test methods designed initially for use with the first generation compounds to identify resistance to compounds of the second generation has led to some practical difficulties in conducting tests and in establishing meaningful resistance baselines. In particular, the results of certain test methodologies are difficult to interpret in terms of the likely impact on practical control treatments of the resistance phenomena they seek to identify. This paper defines rodenticide resistance in the context of both first and second generation anticoagulants. It examines the advantages and disadvantages of existing laboratory and field methods used in the detection of rodent populations resistant to anticoagulants and proposes some improvements in the application of these techniques and in the interpretation of their results.

Mid-term evaluation of African Technology Policy Studies Network Phase VI Strategic Plan: for the period January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2010

The African Technology Policy Studies Network (ATPS) is a multidisciplinary network of researchers, private sector actors, policymakers and civil society. ATPS has the vision to become the leading international centre of excellence and reference in science, technology and innovation (STI) systems research, training and capacity building, communication and sensitization, knowledge brokerage, policy advocacy and outreach in Africa. It has a Regional Secretariat in Nairobi Kenya, and operates through national chapters in 29 countries (including 27 in Africa and two Chapters in the United Kingdom and USA for Africans in the Diaspora) with an expansion plan to cover the entire continent by 2015. The ATPS Phase VI Strategic Plan aims to improve the understanding and functioning of STI processes and systems to strengthen the learning capacity, social responses, and governance of STI for addressing Africa's development challenges, with a specific focus on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). A team of external evaluators carried out a midterm review to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of the implementation of the Strategic Plan for the period January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2010. The evaluation methodology involved multiple quantitative and qualitative methods to assess the qualitative and quantitative inputs (human resources, financial resources, time, etc.) into ATPS activities (both thematic and facilitative) and their tangible and intangible outputs, outcomes and impacts. Methods included a questionnaire survey of ATPS members and stakeholders, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions (FGDs) with members in six countries. Effectiveness of Programmes Under all six strategic goals, very good progress has been made towards planned outputs and outcomes. This is evidenced by key performance indicators (KPIs) generated from desk review, ratings from the survey respondents, and the themes that run through the FGDs. Institutional and Programme Cost Effectiveness Institutional Effectiveness: assessment of institutional effectiveness suggests that adequate management frameworks are in place and are being used effectively and transparently. Also technical and financial accounting mechanisms are being followed in accordance with grant agreements and with global good practice. This is evidenced by KPIs generated from desk review. Programme Cost Effectiveness: assessment of cost-effectiveness of execution of programmes shows that organisational structure is efficient, delivering high quality, relevant research at relatively low cost by international standards. The evidence includes KPIs from desk review: administrative costs to programme cost ratio has fallen steadily, to around 10%; average size of research grants is modest, without compromising quality. There is high level of pro bono input by ATPS members. ATPS Programmes Strategic Evaluation ATPS research and STI related activities are indeed unique and well aligned with STI issues and needs facing Africa and globally. The multi-disciplinary and trans-boundary nature of the research activities are creating a unique group of research scientists. The ATPS approach to research and STI issues is paving the way for the so called Third Generation University (3GU). Understanding this unique positioning, an increasing number of international multilateral agencies are seeking partnership with ATPS. ATPS is seeing an increasing level of funding commitments by Donor Partners. Recommendations for ATPS Continued Growth and Effectiveness On-going reform of ATPS administrative structure to continue The on-going reforms that have taken place within the Board, Regional Secretariat, and at the National Chapter coordination levels are welcomed. Such reform should continue until fully functional corporate governance policy and practices are fully established and implemented across the ATPS governance structures. This will further strengthen ATPS to achieve the vision of being the leading STI policy brokerage organization in Africa. Although training in corporate governance has been carried out for all sectors of ATPS leadership structure in recent time, there is some evidence that these systems have not yet been fully implemented effectively within all the governance structures of the organization, especially at the Board and National chapter levels. Future training should emphasize practical application with exercises relevant to ATPS leadership structure from the Board to the National Chapter levels. Training on Transformational Leadership - Leading a Change Though a subject of intense debate amongst economists and social scientists, it is generally agreed that cultural mindsets and attitudes could enhance and/or hinder organizational progress. ATPS’s vision demands transformational leadership skills amongst its leaders from the Board members to the National Chapter Coordinators. To lead such a change, ATPS leaders must understand and avoid personal and cultural mindsets and value systems that hinder change, while embracing those that enhance it. It requires deliberate assessment of cultural, behavioural patterns that could hinder progress and the willingness to be recast into cultural and personal habits that make for progress. Improvement of relationship amongst the Board, Secretariat, and National Chapters A large number of ATPS members and stakeholders feel they do not have effective communications and/or access to Board, National Chapter Coordinators and Regional Secretariat activities. Effort should be made to improve the implementation of ATPS communication strategy to improve on information flows amongst the ATPS management and the members. The results of the survey and the FGDs suggest that progress has been made during the past two years in this direction, but more could be done to ensure effective flow of pertinent information to members following ATPS communications channels. Strategies for Increased Funding for National Chapters There is a big gap between the fundraising skills of the Regional Secretariat and those of the National Coordinators. In some cases, funds successfully raised by the Secretariat and disbursed to national chapters were not followed up with timely progress and financial reports by some national chapters. Adequate training in relevant skills required for effective interactions with STI key policy players should be conducted regularly for National Chapter coordinators and ATPS members. The ongoing training in grant writing should continue and be made continent-wide if funding permits. Funding of National Chapters should be strategic such that capacity in a specific area of research is built which, with time, will not only lead to a strong research capacity in that area, but also strengthen academic programmes. For example, a strong climate change programme is emerging at University of Nigeria Nsukka (UNN), with strong collaborations with Universities from neighbouring States. Strategies to Increase National Government buy-in and support for STI Translating STI research outcomes into policies requires a great deal of emotional intelligence, skills which are often lacking in the first and second generation universities. In the epoch of the science-based or 2GUs, governments were content with universities carrying out scientific research and providing scientific education. Now they desire to see universities as incubators of new science- or technology-based commercial activities, whether by existing firms or start-ups. Hence, governments demand that universities take an active and leading role in the exploitation of their knowledge and they are willing to make funds available to support such activities. Thus, for universities to gain the attention of national leadership they must become centres of excellence and explicit instruments of economic development in the knowledge-based economy. The universities must do this while working collaboratively with government departments, parastatals, and institutions and dedicated research establishments. ATPS should anticipate these shifting changes and devise programmes to assist both government and universities to relate effectively. New administrative structures in member organizations to sustain and manage the emerging STI multidisciplinary teams Second Generation universities (2GUs) tend to focus on pure science and often do not regard the application of their know-how as their task. In contrast, Third Generation Universities (3GUs) objectively stimulate techno-starters – students or academics – to pursue the exploitation or commercialisation of the knowledge they generate. They view this as being equal in importance to the objectives of scientific research and education. Administratively, research in the 2GU era was mainly monodisciplinary and departments were structured along disciplines. The emerging interdisciplinary scientific teams with focus on specific research areas functionally work against the current mono-disciplinary faculty-based, administrative structure of 2GUs. For interdisciplinary teams, the current faculty system is an obstacle. There is a need for new organisational forms for university management that can create responsibilities for the task of know-how exploitation. ATPS must anticipate this and begin to strategize solutions for their member institutions to transition to 3Gus administrative structure, otherwise ATPS growth will plateau, and progress achieved so far may be stunted.

Carolingian culture in the North Sea world: rethinking the cultural dynamics of personal adornment in Viking age England

Boosted by a proliferation in metal-detected finds, categories of personal adornment now constitute a vital archaeological source for interpreting Viking-age cultural interaction in the North Sea region. Previous research in England has explored the potential of this metalwork in relation to the formation of ‘Anglo-Scandinavian’ identity, but without due consideration of a wider spectrum of cultural influences. This article redresses the balance by shifting attention to twenty-eight belt fittings derived from richly embellished baldrics, equestrian equipment, and waist belts manufactured on the Frankish continent during the period of Carolingian hegemony in the later eighth and ninth centuries ad. The metalwork is classified and then contextualized in order to track import mechanisms and to assess the impact of Carolingian culture on the northern peripheries of the Frankish empire. The main conclusion is that the adoption, adaptation, and strategic manipulation of Carolingian/northern Frankish identity formed an embedded component of cultural dynamics in Viking-age England, scrutiny of which sheds new light on patterns of interconnectivity linking peoples of the North Sea world.

‘Nudging’ energy users: regulatory measures to address the risk of aggregate peak demand in European electricity markets

For decades regulators in the energy sector have focused on facilitating the maximisation of energy supply in order to meet demand through liberalisation and removal of market barriers. The debate on climate change has emphasised a new type of risk in the balance between energy demand and supply: excessively high energy demand brings about significantly negative environmental and economic impacts. This is because if a vast number of users is consuming electricity at the same time, energy suppliers have to activate dirty old power plants with higher greenhouse gas emissions and higher system costs. The creation of a Europe-wide electricity market requires a systematic investigation into the risk of aggregate peak demand. This paper draws on the e-Living Time-Use Survey database to assess the risk of aggregate peak residential electricity demand for European energy markets. Findings highlight in which countries and for what activities the risk of aggregate peak demand is greater. The discussion highlights which approaches energy regulators have started considering to convince users about the risks of consuming too much energy during peak times. These include ‘nudging’ approaches such as the roll-out of smart meters, incentives for shifting the timing of energy consumption, differentiated time-of-use tariffs, regulatory financial incentives and consumption data sharing at the community level.